Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, although stainless - steel prices are already at a low level, inventory accumulation has begun, material cost support has weakened, and demand falls short of expectations, so it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation state [5]. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 120,950 yuan/ton and closed at 121,270 yuan/ton, a 0.21% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 67,146 (-16,615) lots, and the open interest was 66,228 (-2,453) lots. The contract slightly opened lower, the price bottomed out and then rebounded slightly, and the overall non - ferrous metal sector had a small rebound under the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained on the sidelines, and prices were stable. Sea freight decreased due to reduced ship demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories started "winter storage" of raw materials. The nickel ore market in Indonesia continued to have a loose supply pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot prices were basically stable, and the spot premium of each brand did not fluctuate. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 26,474 (-84) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,344 (+3,588) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,615 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,870 (+12,654) lots, and the open interest was 201,245 (-4,171) lots. The contract slightly opened lower at night, was driven by Shanghai nickel and the black sector to further bottom out, and then followed the rebound of Shanghai nickel to rise slightly at the close [3]. - **Spot**: Overall spot trading was still light, and quotes continued to decline. However, after the futures market bottomed out and rebounded in the afternoon, market activity and prices rebounded slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 445 to 745 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations, with specific increases in cold-rolled prices in Wuxi and Foshan, indicating a mixed sentiment among traders [1][3] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, particularly from the Philippines, while domestic nickel iron prices are under pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian steel mills [3] - Overall, the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase, but demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressures [2][3] Pricing and Market Trends - As of October 16, Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price is 13,000 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton day-on-day, while Foshan Hongwang's price is stable at 12,900 CNY/ton [1] - The base price has increased by 45 CNY/ton to 555 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore from the Philippines is auctioned at FOB 43.5, with domestic nickel iron prices stabilizing around 945-950 CNY/nickel [1][3] Supply and Production - In September, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.4513 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 135,700 tons, or 4.09% [1] - October's production is projected at 3.488 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.06% [1] - The 300 series production in October is expected to be 1.8217 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased by 2,339 tons to 85,166 tons [2] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The stainless steel market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with traders showing limited willingness to adjust prices despite lower spot prices compared to the latest agent prices [3] - Macro risks are increasing, with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, and new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply disruptions, low processing fees, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. The overall view is to buy on dips cautiously [2][7][8]. - The alumina market has a static surplus, and prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of enterprises [11][15][16]. - The aluminum market's mid - term upward trend remains unchanged. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and consumption shows resilience [18][19][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is less affected by the US tariff policy. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices, and the short - term view is to buy on dips [26][28][29]. - The zinc market has an oversupply situation. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [31][34][36]. - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with supply being weaker. There is a risk of price decline in the second half of the month, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [38][39][40]. - The nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is advisable [42][44][45]. - The stainless steel market has high inventory and low prices. The price is still under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [49][50][52]. - The tin market has tight supply at the mine end, slow demand recovery, and prices are expected to be volatile at high levels. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [55][59][60]. - The industrial silicon market is under short - term price pressure, but there is a possibility of balance sheet repair in November. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [62][63][64]. - The polysilicon market may experience a short - term correction, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Buying on dips is recommended [69][70][71]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and short - term price strength. The view is to be bullish on the short - term trend [75][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,050 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced positions by 10,111 lots to 546,200 lots. Shanghai spot premiums stabilized, while Guangdong's inventory ended a 5 - day increase, and North China's procurement was weak [2]. - **Important Information**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 242,740 tons. From January to August 2025, it was about 1.81 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year. As of October 16, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 177,500 tons compared to Monday. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the decline in copper processing and refining fees [3][4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroscopically, the US employment market is cooling, and Powell may support interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, supply disruptions at the copper mine end increase, and processing fees are expected to decline. Consumption is weak, but there may be an increase in demand after price corrections [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - term cross - market arbitrage positions, and start cross - period arbitrage after domestic inventory decline. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 9 yuan to 2,790 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [10]. - **Related Information**: On October 15, some aluminum plants made purchases. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan were in a loss situation, and an enterprise in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The static surplus of alumina is absorbed by downstream stocking, but the surplus trend remains. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and more production cuts may occur in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,975 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Related Information**: China's September economic data showed some improvements. The US tariff policy on China was uncertain, and on October 15, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [18]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum prices is expected to be less severe than in April. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and the mid - term upward trend remains unchanged [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 90 yuan to 20,490 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [26]. - **Related Information**: The US tariff policy was uncertain, and on October 15, the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased slightly, while the warehouse receipts decreased [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum alloy prices is limited. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract decreased by 0.32% to 21,965 yuan/ton. The spot market had low trading volume, and downstream purchasing was weak [31][33]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 162,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of zinc in 2025 and 2026 [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: At the mine end, domestic production may decrease, and imported zinc concentrate is in a loss situation. At the smelting end, production is expected to increase. Consumption is expected to weaken. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold short positions and add short positions on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Lead - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Lead 2512 contract increased by 0.26% to 17,130 yuan/ton. The spot market had average trading volume [38]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 37,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of lead in 2025 and 2026 [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was low. After the National Day, inventory decreased. In the second half of October, supply may increase, and prices may decline [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to decline from high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 250 to 121,270 yuan/ton. Spot premiums showed an upward trend [42]. - **Related Information**: In August 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The global nickel market is expected to be oversupplied until 2030. LME nickel inventory is increasing [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory increase indicates high export enthusiasm of domestic enterprises, and prices are under pressure [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [45][46][47]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 increased by 60 to 12,615 yuan/ton. Spot prices were weak and stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports. The national stainless steel inventory decreased slightly [50][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are rising, but 300 - series cold - rolled inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. The current price is lower than the factory cost, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: On October 16, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,350 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan/ton or 0.34%. The spot price decreased slightly [55]. - **Related Information**: Peru's tin production increased in August. In August 2025, the global refined tin supply was in short supply. Indonesia's tin production is expected to recover in 2026 [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US may cut interest rates. The supply at the tin mine end is tight, and the processing fee is low. Demand is recovering slowly. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be volatile at high levels. Wait and see for options [60][61]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: On October 11, an environmental impact assessment of a silicon project was announced [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors of polysilicon production cuts are negative for industrial silicon demand. In the short term, there is a slight surplus, and prices are under pressure. In November, there may be production cuts, and the balance sheet may be repaired [63]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64][65][66]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The rumor of the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform is false [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term rise was due to false rumors, and prices may correct. But capacity integration is progressing, and production is expected to decrease in November and December, with a possible slight inventory reduction [70]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips after a short - term correction. Hold a reverse arbitrage position for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Adjust the previous double - buying strategy [71][72][73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 1,880 to 75,080 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable [75]. - **Important Information**: The government issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities. Hainan Mining shipped lithium concentrate [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production increased, inventory decreased, demand was strong, and prices were supported. Market funds returned, and volatility may increase [76][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on the short - term trend. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2601 contract [79].

Core Points - Chaozhou will implement the "Enterprise Quiet Day" system starting November 1, aiming for full coverage within three years, which restricts enterprise inspections from the 1st to the 20th of each month [1] - The "Enterprise Quiet Day" system is part of a broader three-year action plan (2025-2027) to standardize administrative law enforcement related to enterprises [1] - The plan includes three core systems: "Enterprise Quiet Day," "Comprehensive Inspection Once," and "Code Display for Entry," which aim to regulate administrative law enforcement from the source [1] Summary by Category Administrative Law Enforcement - The "Enterprise Quiet Day" system applies to legally registered enterprises and includes five prohibitions to prevent misuse as an excuse for inaction [1] - A list of items for the "Comprehensive Inspection Once" system will be established by the end of the month, allowing for streamlined inspections [1] - The "Code Display for Entry" system will utilize the "Yue Law Enforcement" platform for digital monitoring of law enforcement personnel [1] Industry Impact - The "Enterprise Quiet Day" system does not apply to industrial enterprises classified as "scattered, chaotic, polluting, and hazardous" [1] - Chaozhou has initiated a three-year special rectification action targeting key industries such as printing and packaging, stainless steel, and clothing [1] Recent Progress - From January to August this year, the number of enterprise inspections by administrative law enforcement agencies in Chaozhou decreased by 37.27% year-on-year [2] - The amount of administrative penalties related to enterprises dropped by 47.09%, and the number of administrative review applications fell by 72.72% [2] - The number of new private enterprises increased by 25.47% year-on-year, indicating improved satisfaction among businesses [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, with high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut and relatively stable fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation trend for the nickel futures contract [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand, stainless - steel prices are also projected to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,761 (-26,323) lots, and the open interest was 68,681 (-4,426) lots. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut led to a weak oscillation trend under stable fundamentals [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. Sea freight declined due to reduced shipping demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, while some northern Chinese factories started "winter storage". The Indonesian nickel ore market had a continuous supply - surplus pattern, and the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market selling price was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was cold, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 26,558 (+1,531) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 246,756 (+3,498) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 113,216 (-37,540) lots, and the open interest was 193,490 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a weak - oscillation trend, and price decline was due to the game between cost support and weak demand [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained cautious, and spot trading was light with stable spot premiums. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 455 - 755 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The recommended single - side strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 8.94% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 6.5% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai Nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using NI main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month NI contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [2] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using SS main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month SS contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [3] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuated during the day, with no significant changes in fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and there is a certain easing sentiment in Sino-US tariffs [3] - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia announced regulations for quota application in 2026. Enterprises need to resubmit new annual RKAB applications for 2026. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3] - In the new energy sector, it will enter the peak season, and the downstream procurement demand remains high. The current quotation has been rising for several consecutive weeks. The market circulation is tight, the inventory is low, and there are still inquiries. It may continue to be strong in the future [3] - The price of nickel iron lacks upward momentum recently, and the overall center of gravity has declined significantly. Tsingshan's latest order was concluded at 945, about 10 yuan/nickel point lower than the previous level. Under the pressure of stainless steel profits and weak demand, it may run weakly. The downward space of the downstream has expanded to some extent after the loss of support from nickel iron [3] - After the holiday, the spot trading of stainless steel remains calm, and the pessimistic sentiment of "peak season without peak" is strong. In terms of exports, the WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal, and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year has promoted positive sentiment in stainless steel exports [3][5] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Interpretations Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6] - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6] - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [6] - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax rate on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [6] - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year [6] Bearish Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The Sino-US tariff issue has resurfaced [6] - The center of gravity of nickel iron has moved down, and the bottom support has weakened [6] - Stainless steel shows "peak season without peak", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, 0% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 120,830 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan, -0.48% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 120,990 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 121,210 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,104 US dollars/ton, down 76 US dollars, -0.53% change [6] - Trading Volume: 83,761 lots, down 26,323 lots, -23.91% change [6] - Open Interest: 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots, -6.05% change [6] - Warehouse Receipts: 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons, 6.12% change [6] - Basis of Main Contract: -460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan, -38.7% change [6] Stainless Steel - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,560 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, 0% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 12,540 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan, -0.75% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, -0.71% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 12,660 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, 0.04% change [7] - Trading Volume: 113,216 lots, down 37,540 lots, -24.90% change [7] - Open Interest: 193,490 lots, up 3,239 lots, 1.70% change [7] - Warehouse Receipts: 84,007 tons, down 490 tons, -0.58% change [7] - Basis of Main Contract: 805 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan, 12.59% change [7] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel: 43,694 tons, up 2,866 tons [8] - LME Nickel Inventory: 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons [8] - Social Inventory of Stainless Steel: 905.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [8] - Nickel Pig Iron Inventory: 29,236 tons, up 584 tons [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with high inventories. The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For trading strategies, a range - based operation is recommended for single - side trading, while no specific strategies are proposed for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1][3]. - The stainless steel market is facing inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand. The stainless steel price is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and no strategies are given for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,084 (- 38,918) lots, and the open interest was 73,107 (- 1,593) lots. The oversupply pattern persists, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariff friction have intensified. The LME inventory continues to increase, suppressing the nickel price. The trading volume and open interest both decreased, indicating reduced market trading activity and capital participation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and the price remains stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF 44, with no transactions concluded. In the Philippines, the bidding result of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in Zambales has not been released. The downstream nickel - iron price has declined, squeezing the profit of iron plants, leading to cautious procurement of nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories have started stockpiling raw materials for winter. The supply in the Indonesian market remains loose, and the October (second phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to increase by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai market sales price of Jinchuan Group is 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in refined nickel prices has increased downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the intraday trading volume is fair. The premiums of various brands are mainly stable. The Jinchuan nickel premium remains unchanged at 2,400 yuan/ton, the imported nickel premium increases by 25 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the nickel bean premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,027 (- 245) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 (+ 1,164) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Mainly use range - based operations [3]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,756 (- 59,233) lots, and the open interest was 190,251 (- 4,171) lots. It shows a similar trend to Shanghai nickel, continuing the low - level oscillation pattern and reaching a low of 12,050 yuan/ton, close to the three - month low [3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism has intensified, and spot prices have decreased, but trading remains sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (- 150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,000 (- 100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium ranges from 455 to 755 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Single - side**: Neutral [5]. - **Cross - period**: None [5]. - **Cross - variety**: None [5]. - **Spot - futures**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

Core Insights - The current market for stainless steel is experiencing price declines, with specific prices for 304 cold-rolled steel in Wuxi and Foshan at 12,950 CNY per ton, down 50 CNY from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic nickel ore prices expected to rise by 0.2-0.3 USD in September, while nickel iron prices are stable but face pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian iron plants [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is on the rise, with an estimated output of 3.45 million tons in September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [1] Price Trends - As of October 14, the cold-rolled stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan are both at 12,950 CNY per ton, showing a daily decrease of 50 CNY [1] - The base price has increased by 40 CNY to 55 CNY per ton [1] Supply and Inventory - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to increase to 3.49 million tons in October, a month-on-month increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 5.99% [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan has risen to 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently facing weak macroeconomic conditions, with prices generally below the latest agent prices, leading to limited willingness among traders to adjust prices [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, while new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations, resulting in increased bargaining space for traders but limited volume [3] Operational Recommendations - The main trading range is suggested to be between 12,400 and 12,800 CNY, with a short-term outlook indicating weak fluctuations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, and stainless steel prices are expected to continue weak operation [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 149,002 (-10,068) lots, and the open interest was 74,700 (-3,140) lots. Influenced by the US president's remarks, there are concerns about the escalation of Sino - US tariff friction, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened low and moved low, and the LME inventory has reached the highest level since October 17, 2022 [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and prices are stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF44 without a deal. In the Philippines, the tender result of 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen Mine in Zambales is pending. The price of downstream nickel - iron has declined, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories are preparing for "winter storage". In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply is loose, with the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium at +26 [1] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is fair, and the premium and discount of refined nickel are slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 25,272 (44) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 242,094 (4,716) tons [2] Group 4: Strategy of Nickel - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 5: Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,989 (+134,394) lots, and the open interest was 176,416 (-4,171) lots. Similar to Shanghai nickel, affected by the US president's remarks, the overall trend of metal futures is weak, and stainless steel also opened low and moved low [3] Spot - Due to the sharp decline in the futures market and weak demand, market confidence is severely hit, and spot trading is light. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 13,150 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,100 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 480 - 780 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 951.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Strategy of Stainless Steel - It is recommended to take a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]