Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of U.S. CPI data has weakened the dollar and created uncertainty in the market, allowing the euro to maintain its structural strength and range-bound movement against the dollar [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently in a narrow range, with clear resistance at 1.16059 and support at 1.15627, reflecting indecision among traders as they await the delayed CPI data [3][14]. - The postponement of the CPI data has removed a crucial directional guide for the dollar, leading to a weakening sentiment towards the dollar while the euro has managed to hold onto recent gains [3][5]. Impact of CPI Delay - The delay in U.S. CPI data is a key factor affecting the euro to dollar exchange rate, as uncertainty leads to a reduction in dollar long positions, providing natural support for the euro [5]. - The forex market is currently in a "neutral mode," with traders managing expectations in the absence of new information, which tends to impact the dollar more than the euro [6]. Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar pair is in a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout expected after the CPI data is released, rather than before [7]. - The current technical outlook suggests that a breakout above 1.16059 could lead to targets at 1.16350 and 1.16688, while a drop below 1.15627 could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.15400 or lower [16][18]. Fundamental Drivers - The euro's resilience is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including a narrowing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which diminishes the dollar's yield advantage [8][10]. - Improvements in European market sentiment, service activity, and industrial demand are providing support for the euro, with stability becoming an advantage rather than a weakness [9]. - The reduction of risk premiums related to energy concerns, bond vulnerabilities, and geopolitical issues has made the euro a safer choice when the dollar is under pressure [10]. Overall Outlook - The current macro environment allows the euro to maintain stability without needing to exhibit strong performance, as this stability is sufficient to support an upward trend when the dollar is weak [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen is testing the patience of Japanese policymakers and causing unease among investors, primarily driven by the new leadership's focus on economic growth without immediate interest rate hikes [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Impact - The yen has weakened significantly, reaching a nine-month low against the dollar at 154.79, raising concerns about the impact on Japan's economy, particularly for an economy reliant on imported energy and materials [1][3]. - The depreciation of the yen has increased import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures on households and squeezing profits for domestic market-oriented companies, leading to a cost-of-living crisis [3]. - The potential for government intervention in the currency market is heightened by external pressures, including criticism from U.S. officials regarding Japan's currency policies [3][11]. Group 2: Currency Intervention Mechanism - Currency intervention occurs when a central bank actively engages in the foreign exchange market to influence the value of its currency, with Japan's Ministry of Finance determining the timing of such interventions [4]. - Japan's foreign exchange reserves, amounting to $1.15 trillion as of the end of October, are typically used to fund interventions, often involving the sale of U.S. Treasury securities [5]. - The effectiveness of currency intervention is often temporary, serving primarily to signal to speculators that extreme fluctuations in currency value will not be tolerated [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Actions - Japan has historically intervened in the currency market, with recent actions costing nearly $100 billion to support the yen, particularly around the 160 yen per dollar mark [7]. - Officials typically do not confirm interventions immediately, but they do release monthly reports on intervention expenditures to maintain market speculation and enhance the effectiveness of their policy signals [8]. - Verbal interventions by high-ranking officials can also serve to deter market speculation and stabilize the currency [9]. Group 4: Political and Diplomatic Considerations - Currency interventions can lead to significant market volatility, impacting speculative traders and complicating pricing and hedging for businesses [10]. - The political implications of currency intervention are complex, as actions perceived as currency manipulation can attract criticism, particularly if aimed at weakening the yen [10][11]. - Any intervention by Japan is communicated to the U.S. in advance, and if the outcome strengthens the yen, it may receive tacit approval from the Trump administration [12].

Core Points - The central bank of China has adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate, increasing it by 33 basis points to 7.0833 [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The exchange rate for 1 USD is set at 7.0833 CNY, while 1 EUR is at 8.2152 CNY, and 100 JPY is at 4.6035 CNY [2] - Other notable exchange rates include 1 HKD at 0.91139 CNY, 1 GBP at 9.3273 CNY, and 1 AUD at 4.6321 CNY [2] - The exchange rates for various currencies against the RMB also include 1 NZD at 4.0139 CNY, 1 SGD at 5.4528 CNY, and 1 CHF at 8.8590 CNY [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Points - The central bank of China has lowered the RMB to USD midpoint rate by 10 basis points, now at 7.0866 [1] - The People's Bank of China has authorized the foreign exchange trading center to publish the exchange rates for various currencies against the RMB, indicating a comprehensive update on the currency's performance [2] Exchange Rate Summary - 1 USD = 7.0866 RMB [2] - 1 EUR = 8.1986 RMB [2] - 100 JPY = 4.6064 RMB [2] - 1 HKD = 0.91160 RMB [2] - 1 GBP = 9.3465 RMB [2] - 1 AUD = 4.6371 RMB [2] - 1 NZD = 4.0101 RMB [2] - 1 SGD = 5.4468 RMB [2] - 1 CHF = 8.8091 RMB [2] - 1 CAD = 5.0607 RMB [2] - 1 MOP = 1.1307 RMB [2] - 1 MYR = 0.58597 RMB [2] - 1 RUB = 11.4209 RMB [2] - 1 ZAR = 2.4187 RMB [2] - 1 KRW = 205.22 RMB [2] - 1 AED = 0.51741 RMB [2] - 1 SAR = 0.52839 RMB [2] - 1 HUF = 46.7518 RMB [2] - 1 PLN = 0.51613 RMB [2] - 1 DKK = 0.9109 RMB [2] - 1 SEK = 1.3408 RMB [2] - 1 NOK = 1.4273 RMB [2] - 1 TRY = 5.94738 RMB [2] - 1 MXN = 2.5908 RMB [2] - 1 THB = 4.5511 RMB [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/11/10, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.117, with a latest change of 0.019, a one - week change of 0.006, a one - month change of 0.083, and a one - year change of - 0.168 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Different economies also show different trends. The US 2 - year treasury bond yield on 2025/11/10 was 3.570, with a latest change of - 0.060, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.540 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates have different changes. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/11/10 was 5.301, with a latest change of - 0.62%, a one - week change of - 1.07%, a one - month change of - 3.02%, and a one - year change of - 8.41% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices of various economies have different performances. For instance, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/11/10 was 6832.430, with a latest change of 0.51%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of - (not provided), and a one - year change of - (not provided) [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices have different changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a one - month change of - 0.17% and a one - year change of 0.01% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing price of A - shares was 4018.60, with a change of 0.53%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.05, with a change of 0.35% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.36, with a环比 change of 0.08. The PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 was 28.41, with a环比 change of 0.44 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.60, with a环比 change of - 0.08. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.38, with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 456.59, and the 5 - day average was - 482.23 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21744.54, with a环比 change of 1754.01 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 23.05, with a magnitude of - 0.49%. The basis of IH was 0.14, with a magnitude of 0.00% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Price and Change**: The closing price of T00 was 108.485, with a change of 0.00%. The closing price of TF00 was 105.940, with a change of 0.00% [6]. - **Funding Rate**: The R001 was 1.5226%, with a daily change of 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5039%, with a daily change of 3.00 BP [6].

Group 1 - The performance of major global stock indices declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown leading to missing economic data, and a valuation correction in the tech sector [1] - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown [1] - In the bond market, global government bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating upward amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators showed positive signs with the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks, the central bank maintaining liquidity, and a rise in October CPI year-on-year, alleviating deflation concerns [2][4] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index touching 4000 points again during the week [2] - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds by China, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicates a potential new channel for dollar liquidity [5] Group 3 - The outlook for assets suggests a stable economic environment with narrow fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies, as the yuan remains relatively stable without strong support for a sustained dollar rise [6] - The stock market is expected to experience slight fluctuations and consolidation due to a lack of strong new policy expectations [7] - The bond market is anticipated to show stable fluctuations with a relaxed funding environment and a gradual pace of central bank bond purchases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized after the initial volatility caused by the "Trump shock," with the dollar's volatility index returning to pre-election levels, indicating reduced investor concerns over Trump's policy uncertainties [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - CME Group data shows that the index measuring the volatility expectations of the dollar against the euro and yen has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, following a significant spike after Trump's election [1][5]. - The dollar index has recovered most of its losses for the year, approaching levels seen before Trump's victory [1][5]. - Analysts believe that a series of tariff agreements between the U.S. and major trading partners has reduced market volatility, while the U.S. economy has shown resilience against tariff impacts [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Market participants have learned to respond more rationally to policy headlines, with ING's market research head noting that the world is learning to coexist with Trump [5][6]. - The end of the global central bank interest rate cut cycle has also alleviated another source of market instability, allowing the dollar to regain its traditional role as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The recent Federal Reserve meeting provided additional support for the dollar, as Powell indicated that the next rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion," signaling a return to traditional currency strength determinants [7][8]. - Demand for bullish dollar options has surged, reflecting increased market bets on further dollar strength [7]. Group 4: Economic Data Impact - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to a lack of macroeconomic data, suppressing volatility in the dollar and U.S. Treasury markets [8][9]. - Analysts note that the absence of comprehensive data on inflation, labor markets, and consumer spending has led investors to avoid building large positions [9]. Group 5: Dollar's Role as a Safe-Haven Asset - Some fund managers assert that the dollar is regaining its traditional stabilizing role in investment portfolios, particularly during global stress periods [10]. - Despite discussions about the end of "American exceptionalism," the dollar has remained a strong currency over the years, with this year's decline viewed as a correction rather than a trend reversal [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold investment, highlighting the continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown on economic forecasts [3]. Market Analysis - The world's largest gold ETF held 1,042.06 tons of gold as of November 7, with an increase of 1.71 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 2.86 tons for the month [2]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with October showing continued growth [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 38 days, affecting federal employee salaries and leading to concerns about a potential slowdown in GDP growth for Q4 [3]. - Wall Street analysts warn that the combination of three years of quantitative tightening and significant government debt issuance is pushing bank reserves into a precarious situation [3]. Economic Indicators - A New York Fed survey indicates that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, double the rate from the previous year [3]. - Short-term inflation expectations have decreased, while consumer confidence in the U.S. is nearing record lows, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. - The price of spot gold in Hong Kong rose to $3,999.68 per ounce amid these economic conditions [3]. Technical Analysis - For short-term trading, the support level for gold is around $3,985.00, with bullish targets set at $4,020.00 and $4,028.00 if the price remains above this level [4]. - Alternative strategies suggest a bearish outlook if the price falls below $3,985.00, targeting $3,964.00 and $3,948.00 [5]. - The RSI technical indicator is currently near the neutral zone, indicating potential for further price movement [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the labor market and the potential downward pressure on the U.S. dollar as economic data resumes publication, highlighting structural weaknesses in the labor market [5][6][7]. Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of structural weakness, with a lack of employment data allowing investors to overlook potential trends related to hiring slowdowns [5][6]. - A recent non-farm payroll report indicated a significant cooling in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 [6][7]. - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that U.S. companies announced the highest number of layoffs for October in over two decades, indicating weak consumer spending [7]. Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced its largest decline since mid-October, with a year-to-date drop of 6.8% [6]. - Analysts predict a potential sell-off of the dollar once new labor market data is released, which is expected to show further weakness [6][7]. - The euro is anticipated to strengthen against the dollar, with predictions suggesting it could reach 1.20 by year-end, a level not seen in over four years [7][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment around the dollar is shifting, with Morgan Stanley changing its stance from bearish to neutral, contingent on significant changes in U.S. interest rate outlook [8][9]. - The article notes that the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and a potential discussion of rate hikes could halt the erosion of the dollar's interest rate advantage [9].