周末美国对伊朗核设施发动空袭后，亚洲市场周一开盘呈现典型避险模式，但市场并未出现恐慌性抛售。 美股期货低开后跌幅收窄，原油飙升后涨幅快速回落，黄金冲高回撤： 标普500指数期货开盘下跌约1%，随后跌幅收窄至0.4%左右； 亚市盘初布油一度涨近6%，随后涨幅持续收窄，目前美油、布油涨幅均在3%以内。 美元兑欧元及多数主要货币走强； 基准10年期美国国债收益率上行2BP至4.396%； 现货黄金今日高开后持续走低，目前报3366.28美元/盎司，较日内高点回撤近30美元； 比特币跌3%，一度下探9.9万美元。 据央视新闻、环球网报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕 三处核设施的袭击，并表示"伊朗的福尔多（核设施）已不存在"。 特朗普周日首度提及对伊朗"政权更迭"的可能性，与美国官员此前表态形成反差。，特朗普22日在社交媒体平台上写道："可能使用'政权更迭'这 个词并不政治正确，但如果伊朗现政权不能使伊朗变得再次伟大，那为什么不能换政权呢？让伊朗再次伟大！" 尽管地缘政治紧张局势升级，但伊朗迄今未显示出明显报复迹象，市场反应相对克制。投资 ...

2025年6月23日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1710，上调（人民币贬值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.2509，下调94点； 港元/人民币报0.91352，上调1.9点； 英镑/人民币报9.6433，下调268点； 澳元/人民币报4.6276，下调253点； 加元/人民币报5.2250，下调142点； 100日元/人民币报4.9113，下调289点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9291，上调186点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2827，下调227点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59285，下调2.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7782，下调105点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5727，下调108点。 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows an overall increase in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in the future. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical tensions [18][6][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a volume decline, with the ChiNext index falling by 0.84%. The total trading volume was 1.09 trillion, down by 0.19 trillion from the previous day, with 1,465 stocks rising and 3,455 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that under weak fundamentals, the probability of a bullish index is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift to lower-priced dividend and agricultural stocks [22][24][27]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the potential for a second adjustment. The report notes that the long-term U.S. Treasury bond issuance is facing challenges, with rates briefly exceeding 5%. The report anticipates that as U.S. Treasury rates rise, recession narratives may regain market focus, suggesting that investors should wait for better buying opportunities [27][8][29]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1843, a decline of 80 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index remained flat, with coal, polyester, and construction materials leading gains, while precious metals, coal chemicals, and non-ferrous sectors lagged. Given the high volatility in oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties, the report recommends a cautious approach. However, it notes a technical trend indicating stabilization at the bottom, suggesting that optimistic investors may consider light positions [36][10][37].

面对不可预测的美国政策以及全球贸易战带来的风险，交易员纷纷避开美元，欧元随之在全球外汇期权 市场中扮演起了更重要的角色。对比美国存管信托及清算公司(DTCC)今年头五个月与2024年最后五个 月的数据，可以看到约15%-30%与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约已变成欧元。此外，还有迹象表明，欧元 正被用作避险资产（传统上由美元扮演的角色），以及用于押注大幅波动。 ...

Group 1 - The White House indicated that President Trump will make a decision within two weeks, with a significant chance of resolving issues through negotiations, leading to a calming of market sentiment [1] - Oil prices fell approximately 2%, while U.S. oil rose about 0.7%, reflecting mixed reactions in the energy sector [1][9] - European stocks saw gains, with the German stock market rising about 1% and the French market increasing by approximately 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by about 0.6%, and silver fell by approximately 1%, indicating a decline in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose over 1%, suggesting a positive trend in the cryptocurrency market despite overall market caution [2] - Analysts warn of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly if the U.S. increases its involvement in ongoing conflicts, which could lead to oil prices soaring above $130 per barrel [2] Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices experienced a limited decline of about 0.2% across the board [2][3] - The British pound saw a slight increase of about 0.2% against the dollar following the release of disappointing retail sales data [6]

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/20 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3368.90 36.31 1304.00 1057.00 - 9621.50 变化 -22.60 -0.85 37.00 12.00 - -96.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 98.78 1.15 1.35 145.46 - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1242.99 | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 13.96 | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源： ...

XAU/USD（黄金） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 黄金周三维持窄幅震荡，凌晨受美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话影响，金价短暂下探3363后反弹，日线收带上下影线阴线。美联储虽维持年内降息50基点预 期，但放缓未来降息节奏，叠加中东局势升温，多空因素交织限制波动。当前1小时级别宽幅震荡进入第3日，方向突破在即，日内建议保持谨慎。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：3423、3400 支撑位：3363、3345 策略：日内观望为主，静待区间突破后顺势操作；激进者可结合M5模型于趋势线附近短线博弈。 三色线交易策略 H1三色线维持绿色，前期3403空单已盈利100点离场。今日以M5模型为主，关注H1趋势线阻力有效性。 EUR/USD（欧美） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 欧美周三震荡收跌，日线录得十字阴线。欧元区经济数据未超预期，美联储按兵不动但维持鹰派立场，美元受避险需求支撑。欧美日内波幅70点，尾盘收于 1.146附近，短期趋势仍偏弱。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：1.152、1.156 支撑位：1.139、1.134 策略：早盘已下破，建议反弹至1.149-1.150做空，止损1.155，目标30-5 ...

Group 1: Financial Reform Policies - The People's Bank of China announced 8 key financial policies to strengthen financial infrastructure, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report library and a digital RMB international operation center[4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration proposed 9 financial opening measures, emphasizing institutional financial openness and enhancing the foreign investment environment[6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced 10 capital market reform measures aimed at deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market[9] Group 2: Specific Measures and Goals - Establishing a personal credit agency to diversify credit products and improve the social credit system[4] - Promoting offshore trade financial service pilot programs in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support international trade[4] - Encouraging innovation in financial tools and market products, including the development of offshore bonds and structural monetary policy tools[4] Group 3: External Environment and Economic Stability - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate amid external uncertainties, with the RMB showing resilience against external shocks[11] - The overall response to external challenges has led to a stable and slightly rising exchange rate, reflecting confidence in China's economic fundamentals[11] - The report warns of potential risks from unexpected inflation in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions that could impact global markets[13]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of macro policy adjustments to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market amidst external shocks, while also promoting reforms and modernization in foreign exchange management to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Directions - The PBOC aims to create a more convenient foreign exchange policy system that enhances services for the real economy, focusing on improving cross-border trade and investment facilitation [1]. - There is a commitment to high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and high-quality capital account openness [1][2]. - The PBOC plans to strengthen macro-prudential and micro-regulatory management to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market and national economic security [2]. Group 2: Technological Integration - The PBOC intends to leverage artificial intelligence and big data to enhance the digital and intelligent level of foreign exchange management, providing smarter and more efficient services [2]. Group 3: Supportive Measures for Trade and Investment - Multiple supportive policies will be introduced to aid foreign trade enterprises, including reforms in trade foreign exchange management and facilitating new trade business models [3]. - The PBOC will promote cross-border investment and financing facilitation, including policies to attract foreign investment and support international economic cooperation [3]. - A package of innovative foreign exchange policies will be implemented in free trade pilot zones to enhance international trade settlement and expand pilot programs for qualified foreign limited partners [3][4]. Group 4: Enhancing Shanghai's Financial Competitiveness - Recent approvals for upgrading the functions of free trade accounts in Shanghai and comprehensive reform pilot programs for offshore trade finance services indicate a focus on enhancing the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The production industry should focus on policies promoting the transformation of traditional manufacturing. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the National Development and Reform Commission has raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices [1]. - The foreign exchange market in May 2025 was stable, with a net inflow of cross - border funds of 33 billion US dollars in the non - bank sector, including high - level net inflows from goods trade and increased foreign investment in domestic stocks [2]. - In the industry overview, international oil prices have rebounded significantly, PTA prices have continued to rise, and egg prices have continued to decline. The urea operating rate is at a high level. The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are at a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased. The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [3][4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promotes the high - end, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries, and encourages the use of digital technologies and relevant policies [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic gasoline prices by 260 yuan/ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan/ton on June 17 [1]. Service Industry - In May 2025, the non - bank sector had a net cross - border capital inflow of 33 billion US dollars, with stable net outflows in service trade, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded significantly [3]. - Chemical: PTA prices have continued to rise [3]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have continued to decline [3]. Mid - stream - Chemical: The urea operating rate is at a high level [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low [5]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased [5]. 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [6].