Group 1 - The chlor-alkali sector is experiencing a strong performance, with multiple companies showing significant gains [1] - Shandong Shihua Industrial has reached the daily limit increase, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies such as Xinjin Road, Yaxing Chemical, Salt Lake Shares, Tianyuan Shares, Hengguang Shares, Hu塑 Shares, and Yingli Special Materials are also seeing upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the core contradiction in the caustic soda market will revolve around the conflict between "high supply and high inventory" and "negative feedback in the industrial chain due to low profits in the alumina industry." The market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bull market, and the annual price center will be under pressure, likely oscillating within a wide range formed by the "cash - flow cost line" and "downstream periodic restocking." The market will feature an interweaving of "normal pressure" and "pulse rebounds," with the greatest price elasticity and uncertainty coming from unexpected production cuts by chlor - alkali enterprises. Key factors to track include high - frequency inventory data, the pace of alumina production capacity launch, and marginal changes in industrial profits [2][67]. - Domestic terminal demand for caustic soda in China will have limited incremental growth in 2026, while the export market will still show prominent growth. Attention should be paid to short - term supply - demand mismatches in the caustic soda market caused by new alumina production capacity launches and the decline in rigid demand and inventory hoarding due to alumina production cuts. The low - profit situation of caustic soda may lead to unexpected maintenance next year, and major supply - reduction contradictions may come from the passive production cuts of caustic soda caused by PVC. In 2026, the caustic soda delivery rules will be modified, which will change the premium and discount of delivery products and delivery areas, adjust the warehouse receipt trade flow, and intensify the impact of warehouse receipts on the market in the short term [2][67]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 2025 Caustic Soda Trend Review - The caustic soda market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations from expectation - driven to fundamentals - dominated. The annual trend can be divided into four main stages: a trend - based upward movement driven by strong expectations from early January to before the Spring Festival; a negative - feedback downward movement due to high profits and weak demand from after the Spring Festival to early May; an interweaving of cost collapse and rebounds from early May to August; and a continuous bottom - seeking under demand negative feedback and high inventory from September onwards [6]. - **First stage (Early January - Before the Spring Festival)**: Driven by the resonance of strong expectations and reality, including alumina industry capacity expansion, pre - production stocking, supply concerns from planned maintenance in South China, and increased overseas export orders, caustic soda prices rose, and inventory decreased. The futures main - contract price reached a maximum of 3358 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, an increase of about 14.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - **Second stage (After the Spring Festival - Early May)**: The market logic shifted. High profits led to high operating rates, but demand was weak. Non - aluminum demand recovered slowly, alumina enterprises reduced inventory and pressured prices, and South China's maintenance devices resumed production, leading to a downward trend in the market [8]. - **Third stage (Early May - August)**: Prices rebounded due to short - term restocking demand from new alumina production lines in early May, but cost collapse due to falling coal prices and lower electricity prices led to high profits and a "short - profit" trading logic. A rebound from late June to late August was driven by seasonal maintenance and policy expectations, but it did not change the loose supply - demand situation [9]. - **Fourth stage (September - Present)**: In the fourth quarter, the market continued to seek the bottom. Alumina production cuts due to low profits reduced demand, non - aluminum demand was limited, and exports faced pressure. High operating rates during the off - peak maintenance season led to high inventory, and prices hit new lows, falling below 2200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 2026 Caustic Soda Demand Pattern - **External demand drives growth, and domestic demand shows differentiation**: In 2026, China's caustic soda demand pattern will feature external demand driving growth and domestic demand showing differentiation. The export market will remain the core growth driver, with the driving logic shifting to a "structural supply gap" in resource - rich countries like Indonesia. Domestic demand will vary: the alumina industry will have complex demand for caustic soda, the pulp and paper industry will have limited incremental demand, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable demand, and the printing and dyeing industry will have a stable but un - supportive demand [13]. - **Alumina industry**: In 2026, China's alumina industry will continue to expand production capacity, with about 13.9 million tons of new capacity planned to be put into production in the first half of the year. However, the industry is facing over - supply, and competition will intensify. The demand for caustic soda will show periodic and structural characteristics, with short - term pulse demand from new capacity launches and long - term suppression due to profit concerns. The overall profit situation of the alumina industry will determine the intensity of its demand for caustic soda, and cost - structure differences will lead to demand differentiation [14][22]. - **Pulp and paper industry**: In 2026, the global and Chinese pulp industry will face a complex situation of tightening overseas supply and expanding domestic supply. The demand for caustic soda will be mainly rigid, with limited growth elasticity and high cost sensitivity. Although new domestic chemical pulp capacity will be put into production, it will not significantly increase the overall demand for caustic soda [23][27]. - **Viscose staple fiber industry**: In 2026, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable and rigid demand for caustic soda. The industry has a concentrated supply pattern, stable demand, and expected profit recovery, which will support high operating rates and continuous demand for caustic soda [30][31]. - **Printing and dyeing industry**: In 2026, the printing and dyeing industry will provide a stable demand base for caustic soda, but its weak profitability will limit its ability to support caustic soda prices. The industry is in a state of low profit or loss, and enterprises will adopt a conservative procurement strategy [35]. - **Export market**: In 2025, China's caustic soda exports increased significantly, with Indonesia becoming the largest export market. In 2026, exports are expected to continue to grow, with an expected year - on - year increase of over 20% and a total volume expected to exceed 4.5 million tons. However, potential risks include the construction of local production capacity in overseas markets, increased international competition, and uncertain trade policies [37][38]. 3.3 2026 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production cuts may exceed expectations**: In 2026, the caustic soda supply side will face the coexistence of "certain production capacity expansion" and "uncertain adjustment effects." The overall supply capacity will continue to grow, but the market will focus on the game between fixed costs and fluctuating marginal profits. Cash - flow cost will form a "hard bottom" for prices, and seasonal and policy - related factors will drive price fluctuations [43]. - **Expected production capacity and output**: In 2026, the caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase by 2.56 million tons, a 5% increase. However, the actual production capacity increase may be about 3% due to the influence of the loss situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries. The annual output is expected to reach or exceed 45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 5% [44]. - **Cost and profit**: In 2026, the core game on the supply side will revolve around cost and profit. The cost side is expected to provide stronger support, but profit expansion is difficult due to over - supply and weak downstream profitability. The effectiveness of profit - to - supply transmission needs to be verified, and large - scale and long - term active production cuts of caustic soda may depend on the passive production cuts caused by PVC [47]. - **Impact of loss in chlorine - consuming downstream industries**: The loss of chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC will affect the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn affects the comprehensive profit of caustic soda enterprises. When the comprehensive profit is in deficit, enterprises may reduce production. In 2026, the maintenance intensity in spring and summer may exceed that of this year [50]. - **Supply - demand mismatch due to seasonal maintenance and inventory hoarding**: Seasonal maintenance, especially from June to August, can ease the supply pressure. However, when the maintenance season ends, supply will increase. High inventory in 2025 has suppressed demand. When the off - season ends and downstream starts to stock up or new alumina production capacity is launched, a supply - demand mismatch may occur [56][59]. 4. Investment Outlook - **Single - side trading**: In terms of trends, the valuation of caustic soda is under pressure, but it is not advisable to short at the cash - flow cost. Attention should be paid to short - term long - buying opportunities brought by caustic soda supply cuts [3][67]. - **Calendar - spread arbitrage**: There is a positive - spread window period during the peak maintenance season. Attention should be paid to the rebound driven by production cuts and the corresponding downstream active inventory - hoarding space and rhythm [3][68]. - **Key time nodes**: After the Spring Festival, around the start of spring maintenance in March, the situation of summer maintenance from June to August, and before the National Day [3][68].

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-18 烧碱山东去库，现货价格小幅上调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4423元/吨（+24）；华东基差-13元/吨（+6）;华南基差7元/吨（+6）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4410元/吨（+30）；华南电石法报价4430元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格780元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（-25）；电石利润-9元/吨（-25）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1102元/吨（-83）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-520元/吨（-48）；PVC出口利润-3.0美元/吨（-6.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.4万吨（+1.8）；PVC社会库存51.7万吨（-1.2）；PVC电石法开工率79.13%（-2.96%）； PVC乙烯法开工率76.67%（+4.75%）；PVC开工率78.39%（-0.62%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量64.9万吨（-5.0）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2143元/吨（-17）；山东32%液碱基差107元/吨（+17）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价720元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

Report Summary of PVC Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but supply - side production cuts during the maintenance peak season next year can be expected due to the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and historically low chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [2] - PVC futures prices rebounded starting from last Friday night driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. There may still be a small rebound space in the short term, but before the 03 contract, futures contracts face the situation of high开工 and weak demand [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - The 01 contract futures price is 4423, the East China spot price is 4400, the basis is - 23, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 257 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price center of the PVC spot market fluctuates and rises, but the trading atmosphere weakens during the session. The short - term adjustment of the PVC supply - demand fundamentals is limited, the total production reduction by enterprises is small, the market supply remains high, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4380 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The rebound of PVC futures prices is driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. Some devices may cut production due to large losses, but winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the scale of new maintenance may be limited. The game of large - scale production cut expectations may occur after the 03 contract. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Strategies PVC - Investment Strategy: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [4] Caustic Soda - Investment Strategy: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [5] Group 2: Core Views PVC - PVC rebounds with the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - environment, and cost support is prominent. The news of the planned shutdown of a 450,000 - ton PVC plant in the US boosts the market sentiment, but the spot trading is weak after the price increase. The supply is expected to decrease slightly this week, and the overall supply pattern remains abundant. The downstream start - up rate generally declines, the inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level. The comprehensive production profit of upstream PVC has decreased, and the export profit has shrunk, but the export orders have strengthened month - on - month [1][3] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market rebounds with the anti - involution sentiment, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. The spot price is mainly stable, and the trading volume has improved at low prices. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period. The supply - side start - up rate is high, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened. Attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine, the dynamics of caustic soda plants, and the implementation details of the macro - anti - involution policy [2][3] Group 3: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,399 yuan/ton (+84); the East China basis is - 19 yuan/ton (-34); the South China basis is 1 yuan/ton (-64) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,380 yuan/ton (+50); the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,400 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 16 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production is - 1,102 yuan/ton (-83); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 520 yuan/ton (-48); the PVC export profit is 3.7 US dollars/ton (-6.9) [1] - Inventory and Start - up: The in - plant PVC inventory is 344,000 tons (+18,000); the social PVC inventory is 517,000 tons (-12,000); the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.13% (-2.96%); the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 76.67% (+4.75%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 78.39% (-0.62%) [1] - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 649,000 tons (-50,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,160 yuan/ton (-3); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 90 yuan/ton (+34) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+10); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+31); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 665.0 yuan/ton (+71.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 546.96 yuan/ton (+51.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 280.39 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2] - Inventory and Start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 457,100 tons (-47,700); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 34,500 tons (+800); the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.20% (+0.20%) [2] - Downstream Start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 86.11% (-0.09%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.74% (-1.72%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (-1.67%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is expected to face a structural oversupply in 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a continued downward pressure on prices [1][5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the price of caustic soda fell from a peak of 3332 CNY/ton to 2098 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1234 CNY/ton, primarily due to an imbalance between capacity expansion and demand growth [1] - Domestic caustic soda production capacity increased by 210 million tons in 2025, contributing to a long-term oversupply situation [1] - The aluminum oxide industry, which accounts for 30%-40% of caustic soda demand, is expected to add approximately 11 million tons of capacity in 2025, theoretically increasing caustic soda demand by 1.2 million tons, but actual production is limited by bauxite supply constraints [1][2] - In 2026, the planned new capacity for caustic soda is about 2.19 million tons, with total domestic production expected to reach 43.86 million tons [2] - The overall demand growth for caustic soda in 2026 is projected to slow down compared to 2025 [3] Inventory and Market Pressure - By the end of 2025, caustic soda inventories exceeded 3 million tons, indicating a persistent oversupply [1] - In 2026, inventory pressure is expected to increase significantly, with most companies maintaining inventories above 450,000 tons [2] Cost Factors - The cost support for caustic soda prices is weak, with electricity and raw salt being the main cost components, accounting for 50%-60% and 25% respectively [4] - The price of liquid chlorine, which is produced alongside caustic soda, fluctuated between -650 to 275 CNY/ton in 2025, affecting the pricing dynamics of caustic soda [4] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to eliminate outdated capacity, potentially impacting caustic soda supply if effectively implemented [5][6] - The actual execution and impact of this policy remain uncertain, and its development will be crucial for the market in 2026 [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry in China has formed a cross - regional circulation pattern of "production in the west and consumption in the east, production in the north and consumption in the south". The industry concentration is increasing, and the scale effect and risk - resistance ability of leading enterprises are enhanced. The cost structure varies by process, and marginal devices are key to observing cost support and supply changes [4]. - The marginal devices of PVC futures are defined from multiple aspects such as policy guidance, old - age devices, production scale, and raw material procurement. Small - scale, old - age, and high - cost marginal capacities with external raw material procurement are core variables affecting short - term supply elasticity and medium - long - term cost curves [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Industry Chain Supporting Analysis Overall Industry Situation - In 2025, the domestic PVC industry entered a period of concentrated production capacity release, with new production capacity of 2.2 million tons and an annual growth rate of 8%. The new capacity is mainly ethylene - based, increasing the proportion of ethylene - based PVC to 31% and diversifying the raw material routes. The industry has a resource - oriented layout, with the northwest and east regions having different advantages, forming a cross - regional supply - demand pattern [11]. - The industry concentration is high, and as of 2025, the top ten enterprises/groups accounted for 43% of the total production capacity, which strengthens the scale effect and market bargaining power of leading enterprises and affects market supply stability and price volatility [17]. - In terms of upstream raw materials, PVC production is mainly based on calcium carbide and liquid chlorine, and 93% of PVC production capacity is equipped with caustic soda plants, showing a high degree of integration in the chlor - alkali industry [19]. Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Supporting Analysis - In the calcium carbide - based PVC industry, enterprises with self - supplied calcium carbide account for 73% of the calcium carbide - based production capacity, mainly in the northwest and east regions, while those with externally - purchased calcium carbide account for about 27%, distributed in multiple regions, and their costs are affected by regional supply and transportation fees [20]. - The northwest region is a major surplus area of calcium carbide, while the north, central, and east regions are net purchasers. The cost of enterprises with externally - purchased calcium carbide is higher, and they are more sensitive to price fluctuations, making them key indicators for observing marginal cost changes and supply - demand adjustments [22]. - Many externally - purchased calcium carbide - based devices are in a long - term shutdown or low - load state. With the decline of chlor - alkali integration profit, some enterprises may consider reducing production [25]. - About 62% of PVC enterprises are equipped with self - supplied power plants, mainly in the northwest. In the calcium carbide - based process, enterprises with both self - supplied power plants and calcium carbide have a cost advantage, while those without either are at a disadvantage. The northwest has the lowest production cost due to coal - power integration [29]. - Most externally - purchased calcium carbide - based enterprises are operating at reduced loads, and the power spot market reform has a greater impact on them [30][32]. Ethylene - Based PVC Supporting Analysis - The raw material sources of ethylene - based PVC are diversified, including integrated ethylene, externally - purchased ethylene, and externally - purchased vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). The ethylene - based process is in line with national policies and has environmental advantages, and new PVC plants are mainly ethylene - based [33]. - Among domestic ethylene - based PVC production capacity, 31% of enterprises are self - sufficient in raw materials, while 69% rely on external procurement. Different procurement modes have different cost challenges and price sensitivities, and marginal devices are affected by external factors such as international ethylene prices and VCM import - export policies [34]. PVC Marginal Device Analysis Policy - based Identification of Marginal Capacities - Future marginal elimination capacities will mainly focus on calcium carbide - based devices with backward processes, small - scale devices, and old - age devices. Enterprises without self - supplied power plants and relying on external procurement may operate at low loads or shut down [40][41]. Capacity - Scale and Production - Time Analysis - In 2025, the PVC industry showed a significant trend of large - scale devices. Devices with a single - set capacity of more than 300,000 tons/year accounted for 60% of the total capacity, while those less than 200,000 tons/year accounted for 20%. Small - scale devices face operational pressure and a trend of being phased out [42]. - About 12% of the existing PVC production capacity was put into operation before 2005. After excluding leading enterprises' and long - term shutdown capacities, about 8% is from relatively old and small - scale devices. The impact of the "anti - involution" policy depends on subsequent implementation details [46]. Ethylene - Based Marginal Devices - Among the old - age devices, 3.6% are ethylene - based, with a relatively low risk of elimination. However, high - cost enterprises relying on external raw materials, such as Suzhou Huasu and Cangzhou Julong, are in a long - term shutdown state. Cangzhou Julong is promoting a port transformation project to reduce costs and enhance supply chain stability [50]. Calcium Carbide - Based Marginal Devices - Among the old - age devices, 8.8% are calcium carbide - based, which are more likely to be eliminated. Some "small - scale and externally - purchased calcium carbide" devices have already exited. Among the remaining 1.69 million tons of old - age calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity less than 200,000 tons, 720,000 tons are externally - purchased calcium carbide devices, which are currently operating at low loads and their operating conditions will affect industry supply elasticity and cost support [51].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Although enterprise inventories have started to decline and there is some downstream purchasing enthusiasm in some regions, inventory levels remain high. In the short term, there are no obvious positive factors, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is expected to continue range - bound operation. Supply pressure remains high next week, demand is under pressure both domestically and internationally, and cost - side support is expected to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue the weakening trend. [2][3] - Futures strategy advice: Hold short positions for caustic soda and maintain a bearish mindset for PVC; Option strategy advice: Observe for both caustic soda and PVC. [4][5] Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The caustic soda price has experienced multiple fluctuations due to factors such as macro - environment changes, alumina demand, inventory levels, and cost changes. Currently, it is expected to be weak. [8] - **Supply Situation**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.84%, a 0.02 - percentage - point decrease from last week. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.71%, an increase of 0.26%. On December 10, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China decreased by 5.14% compared to December 3, and in Shandong, it decreased by 18.12%. [27] - **Device Status**: There are multiple caustic soda plants under maintenance or with planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical, Zhejiang Juhua, and Ningbo Wanhua. The total maintenance loss this week is 239 tons. [28] - **Alumina Impact**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. [32] - **Non - Alumina Downstream**: The textile starting rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber starting rate has increased. [51] - **Export Situation**: In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined. [58] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: The PVC price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and energy prices. Currently, the core contradiction is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken. [65][66] - **Profit Situation**: The industry profit has continued to deteriorate, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method. [71] - **Supply Situation**: This week, the domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased slightly. The overall operating load rate was 78.39%, a 0.62 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the calcium carbide - method PVC powder operating load rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points, and the ethylene - method PVC powder operating load rate increased by 4.75 percentage points. [87] - **Device Status**: There are multiple PVC plants under long - term shutdown, maintenance, or with planned maintenance, such as Taiwen Salt Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Ningbo Hanhua. [89] - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure from both demand and industry competition. The real - estate sector still gives negative feedback on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. [95] - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with the housing sales price index and land transaction area showing certain trends. [96] - **Inventory Situation**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year. [103] - **External Market and Export**: Some external market prices have weakened. In October 2025, PVC exports were 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. Imports were 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton. [110][121]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental support for caustic soda is limited. As the off - season approaches, there is an expectation of further weakening in demand, and alkali plant inventories are relatively high. In terms of valuation, the liquid chlorine price is neutral. Although chlor - alkali profits have declined, production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. In the medium to long term, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [1] - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The current supply - demand situation is weak. It is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, and speculative demand at low prices has been falling short of expectations. The overall price of alumina is under pressure, leading to a pessimistic outlook for caustic soda demand. Chlor - alkali profits are moderately low, but production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. [8] - Long - term trading expectations: The pressure of new production capacity in the medium to long term continues, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [3] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **32% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price)**: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. Only in Shaanxi, Beiyuan's price dropped by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. [11] - **50% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price)**: On December 12, 2025, most prices were stable, except for Lutai, which decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. [11] - **Flake caustic soda market price**: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged. In the Southwest, Central China, and East China regions, prices dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with decreases of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.5% respectively. [12] - **Caustic soda grade/regional spread**: On December 12, 2025, all spreads remained unchanged compared to the previous day. [12] - **Caustic soda futures price/month spread**: On December 12, 2025, the 05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton (0.18%), the 09 contract decreased by 16 yuan/ton (- 0.68%), and the 01 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.38%). The month - spreads also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Chlor - alkali profits have declined, and the overall market pricing is relatively pessimistic. [14] - Bearish information: Not provided in the document 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Observe the downstream demand, the off - season situation of non - aluminum industries, and the alkali - stocking rhythm of aluminum plants. [14] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital flow: This week, the caustic soda price continued to decline, reaching a new low for the year. However, there is no obvious upward driving force in both fundamentals and sentiment. [14] - **Reasons**: Caustic soda production remains at a high level, increasing supply pressure, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. [16] 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Shandong Jinling's 32% caustic soda (converted to 100% purity) is priced at 2156 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan over the 01 contract and 46 yuan/ton over the 03 contract. Alkali plant inventories are at a high level, and the fundamentals lack support. [17] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As the caustic soda price falls, overall chlor - alkali profits have declined. The liquid chlorine price is relatively neutral, at 100 yuan/ton in both Jiangsu and Shandong. [27] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the Southeast Asian CFR price is 430 US dollars/ton, remaining stable for now. There is an expectation of substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed. [39] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spot price**: The document shows the seasonal price trends of 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. [44] - **Caustic soda - 50% caustic soda spot price**: It presents the seasonal price trends of 50% caustic soda in different regions including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi. [52] - **Flake caustic soda spot price**: It shows the seasonal price trends of 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as North China, East China, Central China, and Northeast China. [55] - **Spot regional spread**: It includes spreads such as Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, and Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda. [61] - **Spot price converted to futures price**: It shows the seasonal trends of the converted prices of caustic soda in different regions and grades. [68] - **Caustic soda foreign - market price**: It includes prices such as the Northeast Asian FOB price, Southeast Asian CFR price, Indian caustic soda price, US Gulf of Mexico FOB price, and Western European liquid caustic soda price. [96] 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Caustic soda loss volume**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly caustic soda plant loss volumes. [103] - **Liquid caustic soda production and operation rate**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly total production and operation rates of liquid caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [105] - **Flake caustic soda production and operation rate**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total production and operation rates of flake caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. [114] 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Alumina spot price**: It shows the average prices and costs of alumina in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi, as well as the industry - wide average profit. [122] - **Alumina weekly operation rate**: It shows the seasonal trend of the national weekly operation rate of alumina. [124] - **Operation rates of related industries**: It includes the weekly operation load rates of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber in China. [126] - **Caustic soda import - export volume**: It shows the seasonal trends of monthly import and export volumes of caustic soda in China, as well as the export structure by continent. [131] 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, as well as in different regions of China. [137] - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total inventory, factory inventory, and regional factory inventories of flake caustic soda. [149]

烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 PVC：低位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 烧碱观点：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.2%，较上周环比+0.2%。分区域来看，华北、华东有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷 小幅上升，华北+0.9%至82.1%，其中山东+0.2%至93.0%，华东+1.1%至77.9%。西南、华中负荷下滑，西南因枯水期电价上涨导致利润 亏损减产，负荷下滑明显 ，西南-12.3%至84.3%，华中-0.5%至82.7%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高 ...