Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjinlu's stock has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 79.17% and recent trading activity indicating a mixed performance in terms of net inflow and outflow of funds [1][2] - As of November 12, Xinjinlu's stock price was 6.45 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 4.183 billion yuan and a trading volume of 24.5733 million yuan [1] - The company has been active in the stock market, appearing on the "龙虎榜" (Dragon and Tiger List) 10 times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 27, where it recorded a net buy of -61.1593 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Xinjinlu's main business involves the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products, with revenue composition being 41.61% from resin products, 38.43% from alkali products, and 19.97% from other sources [1] - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chlor-alkali sector, and is associated with various concept sectors including low-priced stocks, small-cap stocks, graphene, non-ferrous copper, and aerospace military [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Xinjinlu reported an operating income of 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -78.4945 million yuan, a decline of 129.38% [2] Group 3 - Xinjinlu has cumulatively distributed 124 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

烧碱：震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2357 780 2438 81 2025 年 11 月 12 日 以山东地区为基准，11 月 11 日山东液碱市场成交不佳，部分涨库存企业价格继续走跌，虽有省外订单 签订，但预计支撑有限。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业未来可能减产 装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而冬季本身是氯 碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同时出口承压， 导致国内供应压力进一步增大。 整体看，烧碱估值高度始终受氧化铝减产预期压制。成本端，液氯降价虽然能导致烧碱成本抬升，但只 能导致低位估值修复，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间始终有限。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链 负反馈。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-11 供需偏弱，PVC震荡探底 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4614元/吨（+3）；华东基差-74元/吨（-33）;华南基差-4元/吨（-13）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4540元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4610元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-100元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-769元/吨（-6）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+79）；PVC出口利润4.8美元/吨（-0.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.5万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存54.6万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.17%（+3.70%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.23%（-1.27%）；PVC开工率79.28%（+2.19%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量74.2万吨（-3.2）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）845.8元/吨（-40.0）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）43.78元/吨（-10.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjin Road's stock has shown significant growth this year, with an 81.11% increase, and recent trading activity indicates a mixed sentiment among investors [1][2] - As of November 11, Xinjin Road's stock price reached 6.52 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 4.229 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced a net outflow of main funds amounting to 7.7577 million CNY, with large orders showing a higher selling volume compared to buying [1] Group 2 - Xinjin Road's main business involves the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products, with revenue composition being 41.61% from resin products, 38.43% from alkali products, and 19.97% from others [1] - The company belongs to the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chlor-alkali sector, and is associated with various concept sectors including low-priced stocks and aerospace military [2] - As of October 20, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.20% to 46,400, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.61% to 13,086 shares [2] Group 3 - Xinjin Road has distributed a total of 124 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The alumina production and reduction expectations have offsetting effects on caustic soda. The winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina reduction expectation. The cost increase due to liquid chlorine price reduction can only lead to a low - level valuation repair, and the rebound space of caustic soda is limited without production cuts. In the long run, alumina production reduction will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain. [2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On November 11, 2025, the 01 contract futures price of caustic soda was 2349, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda folded to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 89. [1] [Spot News] - On November 10, the caustic soda market in Shandong showed a differentiated trend. In the western market, due to increased supply and poor demand, some transaction prices continued to decline. In the eastern market, the sales were average, and it remained stable for the time being supported by alumina. [2] [Market Condition Analysis] - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting the chlor - alkali profit. Alumina's production and reduction expectations offset each other's impact on caustic soda. The winter is an off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is weak, and exports face pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production reduction expectations. Cost increase from liquid chlorine price reduction can only repair low - level valuations, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts. Long - term alumina production reduction will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain. [2] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda has stabilized, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Multiple factors affect the market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. Overall, the short - term market lacks a clear trend and is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. Regional differences exist, with load increases in the Northwest, Northeast, and South China, and decreases in North China and Central China [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The monthly start - up rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production remained basically flat [3]. - **Inventory**: Recently, there has been a lot of delivery, and caustic soda inventory has decreased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 414,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.29% and a year - on - year increase of 57.84%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 24.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.39% [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 75, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 45%. Liquid chlorine prices fell, and caustic soda prices stabilized, leading to a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is neutral, and the absolute futures price is low. Near - month contracts are at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies currently. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated within a range. This week, Shandong spot prices showed mixed trends but generally remained stable, and the futures price hit a new low. The price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly to - 100 yuan/ton, and the electricity price increased, causing the chlor - alkali profit to approach the break - even point. Three factories have planned maintenance in November. Currently, there is less maintenance, production has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The spot price is expected to stabilize. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices and the alumina production schedule [6]. - **Position**: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [21]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices have risen [28]. - **Device Loss and Capacity Utilization**: Data shows the historical trends of device loss and capacity utilization [31]. - **Inventory**: Data shows the historical trends of caustic soda inventory, including liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda [31]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. Data shows the historical production in different regions [33]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [34]. - **Downstream Price**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [37]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina has improved, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has decreased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [49][50][59]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and production has started to decline [60][62]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate has rebounded [69]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, including specific maintenance times and production capacities [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

Core Viewpoint - Chlor-alkali chemical industry has seen a significant increase in trading volume, reaching a new high since April 2022, indicating strong market interest and potential growth opportunities for investors [2]. Company Summary - Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. was established on July 4, 1992, with a registered capital of 1,156.40 million RMB [2]. - The company's stock price has increased by 4.48%, with a trading turnover rate of 10.05% [2]. - The trading volume for the company reached 1 billion RMB, the highest since April 18, 2022 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the total supply shows an increasing trend. The price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to weaken, and the industry's profit keeps shrinking with increasing losses. Thus, the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, suppressing the price. In the short term, the caustic soda price lacks support. Although the middle and lower reaches may have phased replenishment needs after consuming their own inventories, the price is still under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The non - aluminum market remains sluggish. It is expected that the caustic soda price will run weakly in the short term, and a bearish trend is advised, while tracking the downstream replenishment rhythm [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved. The pressure on the supply side continues to rise, the demand expectation weakens, and the cost - side support is insufficient. There is no positive macro - level expectation for the time being. Therefore, the price is expected to continue to decline. The main downstream fields such as real estate are still weak. The new orders of profile and pipe product enterprises are limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, which is difficult to provide continuous support to the market. There will still be an impact from new production capacity on the supply side from November to December. The demand from November to January of the next year is in the traditional off - season, and the overall real - estate demand will decrease, forming a negative impact. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax in India is unclear, and exports are mainly on hold. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the price. Although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form an upward driving force, and it is expected to continue the downward trend at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, alumina demand, and cost. The price has shown fluctuations, with periods of decline due to factors like increased supply and weak downstream demand, and short - term rebounds due to factors such as policy expectations and increased demand from alumina [6]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises is 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% strength this week is 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from last week. There are many ongoing maintenance of chlor - alkali plants this week, but some enterprises with under - capacity operation have increased their loads, resulting in a slight increase in output [25]. - **Alumina Demand**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - **Alumina Market**: Although the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in the north has decreased recently, the domestic supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved, and the social inventory of alumina continues to increase. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to run weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [34]. - **Bauxite**: The bauxite price is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw - material inventory has increased significantly [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production remained at a high level, and the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The operating rate of the printing and dyeing and textile industries has increased seasonally, and it is in the peak season. However, the overall non - aluminum downstream has not shown strong driving forces [49]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. It is estimated that the export profit will decline in October [54]. PVC - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC price has been on a downward trend due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere. The price has been affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, supply - demand changes, and export conditions, with periods of sharp declines and short - term rebounds [61]. - **Profit**: The PVC industry has been in a state of continuous losses, with losses in both the calcium - carbide and ethylene - based production methods [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The calcium carbide production has increased month - on - month, but the profit has weakened [72]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased this week. Although there are 4 new enterprises for maintenance or shutdown, the overall maintenance loss has decreased, and the industry operating rate has increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week is 79.28%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase from last week [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector, with the goal of "de - inventorying and stabilizing prices", will continue to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the PVC downstream will not have positive drivers [93]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new - construction area showing weak performance [94]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has remained flat recently, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [101]. - **External Market**: The external market price of PVC has weakened, and the export situation is affected by factors such as anti - dumping taxes in India [108]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, and the export volume was 346,400 tons. The export volume has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [119].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hangjin Technology has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 13.77% and a recent decline over the past 20 days, indicating mixed market sentiment towards the company [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hangjin Technology reported a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.38%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 62.72% to 15.1891 million yuan [3]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 641 million yuan, with 7.44781 million yuan distributed over the past three years [4]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 5.16% to 124,100, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 4.91% to 5,302 shares [3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings among them, such as a new entry by Penghua Zhongzheng Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF [4]. Market Activity - The stock experienced a trading volume of 112 million yuan with a turnover rate of 0.79% on November 10, 2025, indicating active trading [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" 12 times this year, with the most recent instance showing a net buy of -54.0628 million yuan on February 25 [2].