烧碱产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) 10 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2502 | | | 74145 | -10407 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -19342 | | | 147625 | -51599 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) 41 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2636 | | | 2722 | 44 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19342 | -3349 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | | | 890 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | | -2 | -10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of PVC is large, with production expected to rise due to restart of previous maintenance and new capacity. Demand is weak, with low downstream product start - up and reduced export orders. Social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and cost - side support is weak. For烧碱, the upstream supply is high, and there is short - term rigid demand support from the alumina industry. The profit of chlor - alkali has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 5010 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 150 yuan/ton (- 17), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 37). The East China calcium carbide method spot price is 4860 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method spot price is 4900 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The price of semi - coke is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 252 yuan/ton (- 231), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 489 yuan/ton (- 10), and the PVC export profit is 8.8 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 33.7 tons (- 0.8), the social inventory of PVC is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate of PVC is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method start - up rate of PVC is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall start - up rate of PVC is 77.75% (+4.49%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (- 2.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of SH futures main contract is 2492 yuan/ton (+46), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (- 46). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 645.8 yuan/ton (- 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 483.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 85.10% (+1.20%). The start - up rate of alumina is 85.73% (+0.15%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply**: The overall start - up has increased significantly month - on - month due to the return of previous maintenance and production resumption, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, so the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still large [3]. - **Demand**: The start - up of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3]. - **Inventory and Cost**: PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high. The calcium carbide price is weak, and the ethylene price is mainly stable, so the cost - side support of PVC is still weak [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply**: The upstream start - up has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period, and enterprises have little willingness to reduce production due to profit support. Although the start - up in Shandong is also at a high level, some local enterprises have reduced their device loads, and Yantai Wanhua plans to carry out maintenance, so the start - up may decline slightly in the later period [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of alumina is good, the start - up continues to rise, and the delivery volume of the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The start - up of non - aluminum sectors has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of liquid chlorine continues to be weak, the cost support of caustic soda is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell for hedging. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread of V09 - 01. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Inter - variety**: None [4].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The continuous inventory build-up and delivery game have led to a short-term decline in the futures price of caustic soda. The caustic soda 2509 contract dropped from a high of 2,757 yuan/ton on July 24th to a minimum of 2,412 yuan/ton, mainly affected by three factors: the return of production capacity after the peak maintenance period, the rebound of liquid chlorine prices, and the increase in warehouse receipt registrations [2][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Entering late August, autumn routine maintenance is expected to cause a phased decline in caustic soda production. Non-aluminum demand is expected to enter the peak season in September, and the downstream operating rate needs to be tracked. For alumina demand, the alkali preparation demand driven by alumina production in the second half of the year is expected to decline, but the daily alkali consumption of new plants still supports demand. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Given the pressure of warehouse receipts and the inventory build-up trend, there is great uncertainty in going long. The approaching peak maintenance period and the expectation of the non-aluminum demand peak season may limit the downside space of the futures price. The operating range of the main caustic soda contract SH509 is 2,350 - 2,600 yuan/ton [3][20]. Group 3: Specific Data - As of August 8th, the weekly production of caustic soda reached 833,000 tons, a new high this year, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 85.1%. The subsidy for liquid chlorine narrowed from -550 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, driving the chlor-alkali profit from negative to positive, reaching a maximum of 352 yuan/ton. On August 1st, 388 new warehouse receipts were registered, causing the SH2509 contract to decline significantly, the futures premium to turn into a discount, and the 9 - 1 spread to fall to a minimum of -133 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Maintenance Schedule - Multiple companies in different regions have maintenance plans from July to October, including full stops, partial stops, and semi - load rotation maintenance. For example, Dongming Petrochemical in East China stopped for about 40 days of maintenance on July 31st, and Yantai Wanhua in East China plans to start semi - load rotation maintenance from mid - August to late September [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on chemical products with significant market potential [4][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a 2.33% increase in the first week of August, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.22 percentage points [12]. - The top five performing stocks in the sector included Anli Co. (+51.6%) and *ST Jintai (+19.18%) [12]. - The report highlights the significant price increase of formic acid (+28.62%) and other chemicals, indicating strong market dynamics [3][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry had 29 sub-industries rising and 3 declining in the first week of August, with potassium fertilizer leading the gains at +11.61% [2][17]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 27.11 times, slightly below the average PE since 2015 [12]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases, including formic acid (+28.62%) and dichloromethane (+17.5%) [3][21]. - The price spread for PX (naphtha-based) saw a significant increase of +36.66%, while PTA spread decreased by -52.14% [39][42]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in polyester filament (+14.71%) and epoxy propane (+12.92%) [60][62]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance, such as Xinyangfeng and Guangxin Materials, which are expected to benefit from ongoing market trends [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: China's export growth in July 2025 continued to exceed expectations, and attention should be paid to policy changes; the implementation of US tariff policies and the impact on the economy remain to be seen; with the personnel changes in the Federal Reserve, market expectations for an interest rate cut within the year are rising [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: In the East China region, there are both device overhauls and restarts, but without substantial positive support for non - aluminum demand, affected by the price decline in the main regions, the liquid caustic soda price is expected to be weakly stable this week. In Shandong Province, the liquid caustic soda market remains weak, the shipment of high - concentration caustic soda slows down, and the price will show a weakly stable trend [4]. - **Overall Logic**: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. From the supply - demand perspective, the inventory pressure is obvious, and the near - month contracts will face certain warrant pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Spot Market**: Shandong's liquid caustic soda market is running weakly. The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.44%; the price of 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1280 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.03%. The price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest region decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.08%. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 60%. The prices of sea salt in Shandong and alumina in Shandong remained unchanged [9][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [15]. 02 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week of 20250801 - 0807, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. It is expected that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate will be around 83.1%, and the weekly output will be around 804,500 tons. There are still planned maintenance devices in the northwest and north China regions, and the load is expected to decline [22]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: The supply of alumina changed little in the week. The supply - demand mismatch in different regions still exists. As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.4 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: As of 20250807, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 461,700 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. The storage capacity ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 26.56%, a month - on - month increase of 2.87% [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of August 7, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 35.9%. As of August 8, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. It is expected to reach 80.13% this week [34]. - **Chlor - Alkali Cost and Profit**: In the week of 20250801 - 20250807, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 278 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.31%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the caustic soda price declined, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].

Group 1: Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report analyzes the price, cash - flow, and supply - demand situation of various products in the polyester industry. Different products have different trends and outlooks. For example, PX's supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and its supply - demand is expected to weaken; PTA's short - term supply - demand may improve, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term; ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve; short - fiber's supply and demand have a small increase, and its price follows raw materials; bottle - chip's inventory is slowly decreasing, and its processing fee has support [2]. Summary by Directory - **Product Prices and Cash - flows**: On August 8th, prices of some products like DTY150/48 decreased by 0.3%, while others like POY150/48 remained unchanged. Cash - flows of some products also changed, such as POY150/48's cash - flow decreased by 28.6% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply increases in August, and with low terminal demand, its supply - demand weakens. PTA has new device production, but low processing fees lead to more unexpected device overhauls. Ethylene glycol has supply changes both at home and abroad, and demand is expected to increase as the off - season ends. Short - fiber's supply and demand slightly increase, and bottle - chip's inventory decreases due to production cuts [2]. Group 2: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report presents the price, supply - demand, and inventory situation of PVC and caustic soda. Caustic soda's supply is expected to increase, but there may be support from supply reduction due to enterprise overhauls. PVC's supply pressure is large with new capacity release, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement [7][12]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 8th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.4% to 4890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Caustic soda's downstream alumina price is stable, and supply is expected to increase. PVC's new capacity is released continuously, and downstream product enterprise's operating rates are low. Inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC has different changes, such as liquid caustic soda's East China factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.0% [7][12]. Group 3: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Crude oil prices are running weakly recently. The trading logic is mainly about geopolitical risks and supply - demand relaxation pressure. Geopolitical factors may affect supply, and macro - level factors and basic - level supply - demand also impact the market. The market is bearish, but the price stabilizes after a decline. Short - term observation is recommended [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 11th, Brent decreased by 0.57% to 66.21 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased by 0.67% to 63.45 dollars/barrel. Some spreads also changed, such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased by 12.73% [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors like the US - Russia cease - fire negotiation may increase supply expectations. Macro - level new tariffs and sanctions threats affect demand. OPEC +'s production increase and the end of the peak oil - using season strengthen the bearish sentiment [15]. Group 4: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In August, the supply of PP and PE increases due to less maintenance and new device production. Demand is at a low level currently, but there is potential for replenishment as the seasonal peak approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, prices of futures contracts like L2601 decreased by 0.27%. Some spreads also changed, such as L2509 - 2601 decreased by 19.40% [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply pressure of PP and PE increases in August. Downstream operating rates are low, and inventory of enterprises and society has different degrees of increase [20]. Group 5: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of methanol accumulates significantly at ports this week. Domestic production is at a high level, and imports in August are still high. Downstream demand is weak due to low profits. 09 contract has a strong inventory - accumulation expectation, while 01 contract has expectations of seasonal peak and Iranian device shutdown [23]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, MA2601's closing price decreased by 0.88% to 2475 yuan/ton. Some spreads like MA91 spread increased by 15.60% [23]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, and port inventory increased by 14.48%. Operating rates of some upstream and downstream enterprises changed, such as Shanghai - domestic enterprise's operating rate increased by 2.28% [23]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the third quarter, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory may decrease. Short - term price has support, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's supply is high in the short - term, and its supply - demand pattern is weak, but the downward space is limited [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, the price of pure benzene's East - China spot decreased by 0.4% to 6125 yuan/ton, and styrene's East - China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7270 yuan/ton. Some spreads also changed, such as pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 1.1% [27]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1% to 16.30 million tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% to 15.90 million tons. Operating rates of some industries in the chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.3% [27]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current oscillation of urea is due to the game between the positive factors of the Indian tender's unexpected price and export quota release and the agricultural demand gap. In the short - term, the bullish narrative dominates the market [54]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, the 05 - contract price of urea decreased by 0.50% to 1784 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract price decreased by 0.52% to 1728 yuan/ton. Some spreads and basis also changed [52]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Although some enterprises like Hualu Hengsheng are under maintenance, the daily output of urea is still at a high level. The demand impulse from the Indian tender and export policy cannot be falsified in the short - term [54].

2012 31 2025-08-11 F3071622 Z0014205 F03133773 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 : | 1 | 0.6 | 83 | 0.07 | 10.99 | ; | 2 | 20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 85.1% | +1.2% | +4.3% | 91.1% | +0.2% | 79.6 | +2.8% | 90.5% | -2.4% | 91.5% | | 1 | 2 | 84.97% | | | | | | | | | 3 | 58.9% | 3 | 2025 | 6 | 49.27% | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 20 | 46.17 | ( | ) | 8.84% | 17.08% | | | | 26.56% | 2.87% | | | | | | | | | | 1 | -8 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 256 | / | 28% | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | ...

Consumption Trends - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes have increased, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment, with year-on-year comparisons turning from negative to positive[6] - Tourism and movie attendance have seen a resurgence, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 5.6% month-on-month, indicating strong demand[6] - Textile and apparel sectors are experiencing a seasonal downturn, with sales volumes declining compared to previous weeks[6] Investment Insights - As of August 9, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.84 trillion, with a slowdown in issuance noted in the first week of August[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities have shown a month-on-month decline, with new home sales still in negative growth territory, although the rate of decline has slightly narrowed[17] - Construction progress remains slow, with asphalt construction rates falling and cement shipment rates decreasing year-on-year[17] Trade and Export Dynamics - External demand is weakening, as evidenced by the July Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US dropping to 49.8%, indicating contraction[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, reflecting a broader trend of declining shipping costs[21] Production and Inventory Changes - The steel industry has shown marginal improvements in production rates, with rebar and wire rod output increasing[31] - Overall inventory trends indicate a focus on destocking, particularly in the cement and asphalt sectors, while steel inventories are rising due to increased production[42] Price Movements - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a marginal decline, with most categories experiencing price drops except for seasonal increases in vegetable prices[44] - Producer Price Index (PPI) has also decreased, with industrial prices falling across most categories, particularly in construction materials[44] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 1.7 basis points to 1.69%, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy[48] - The US dollar index has fallen by 42 basis points, contributing to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, from 7.21 to 7.18[48]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views Caustic Soda - Recent downstream alumina prices are stable, but market trading enthusiasm has declined. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has high profits, increasing restocking demand. Supply is expected to increase as there will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than in July. In August, the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas is expected to increase. The demand side lacks obvious positive support, and downstream customers are sensitive to price changes. The overall outlook is neutral to weak, and attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [2]. PVC - New production capacities are being put into operation, domestic trade is weak, spot trading is sluggish this week, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased. Inventory pressure continues to rise, and demand is difficult to improve. New production capacities at home and abroad will continue to be released in August. The overall supply - demand pressure remains high, but attention should be paid to the impact of coking coal prices on PVC prices [3]. Futures and Options Strategies - For both caustic soda and PVC, the futures strategy is to short on rallies, and the options strategy is to buy put options [4][5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Caustic Soda Price and Market Dynamics - The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends under different market conditions, such as falling due to factors like increased supply and weakening demand from alumina plants, and rising due to positive policies and increased demand from major downstream industries [8]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.10%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points from last week. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong has increased [27]. Alumina Impact - From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina is 1230 million tons (including 200 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. Other Factors - The price of bauxite is stable, and port inventories have slightly declined this week. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production but low出库 volume and high in - plant inventories. Non - aluminum downstream industries are fragmented, and attention should be paid to their resistance to high caustic soda prices. The estimated export profit of caustic soda is strengthening [40][46][51][58]. PVC Price and Market Dynamics - The PVC futures price has fluctuated under different market conditions, such as falling due to weak supply - demand and poor macro - atmosphere, and rising due to policy expectations and improved market sentiment [65]. Profit - The industry profit of PVC has weakened on a month - on - month basis [71]. Supply - This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73%. The capacity utilization rates of both the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method have increased [87]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the demand from the real estate sector is still negative. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years [97]. Inventory - PVC inventories have continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, and the pressure is prominent [105]. International Market - The international price of PVC has shown narrow fluctuations. In June 2025, PVC exports decreased on a month - on - month basis but increased on a year - on - year basis. The import volume increased on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened, but weekly export transactions are weak [112][123].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is weak and volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current market shows rising production and inventory, with a weak structure. However, considering the cost - side support and the expected increase in demand during the peak season, especially the planned alumina capacity expansion in Guangxi at the end of the year, the market is expected to turn bullish later. It is recommended to go long on dips, engage in positive spreads for 10 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [5] - **PVC**: The industry's fundamentals have not significantly improved during the anti - involution process. With high production and inventory, and weak demand both domestically and in exports, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to go short on rallies, avoid participating in inter - period spreads, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 contract is strengthening, and the downside space of the 10 - 1 month spread is limited. The export market still provides support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][19] 3.1.2 Supply - The domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week is 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons is 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side has changed significantly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decent profit situation [40][44][45] 3.1.3 Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profit. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production expansion can drive a new round of demand growth. The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries have stable operations, and the water treatment and ternary precursor industries also have stable operations [76][82][93] 3.1.4 Balance Sheet - Assuming a 1 - million - ton caustic soda production capacity is put into operation in 2025, under different demand scenarios (weak, neutral, and optimistic), the supply - demand gap varies with different operating rates [102] 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating and strengthening, while the 9 - 1 month spread is oscillating weakly [106] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The PVC production capacity utilization rate this week is 79.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73%. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in the northwest from August to September in 2025. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation, increasing the supply pressure [111][113][114] - **Demand**: The real estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall operating rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are weaker year - on - year. The PVC export expectation is weakening, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 being 1.9605 million tons, and the monthly export volume decreasing by 27.61% month - on - month [123][129][138]