Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the central bank in the bond market, highlighting the mixed performance of the stock market and the bond market, as well as the implications of the central bank's bond purchasing strategy for market sentiment and investor behavior [3][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 292 billion yuan, with a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan after 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. - The funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.48% [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1% in the morning session, while bond yields exhibited divergence, particularly with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.8125% and 1.7975% [5][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market improved compared to the previous day, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a low of 1.7925% during the day [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The article notes that the central bank's potential resumption of bond purchases has become a "quick fix" for bond market bulls, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [5]. - There is a commentary on the evolving understanding of market dynamics, emphasizing that investors are now more influenced by stock market performance, rumors, and market emotions rather than just fundamental, policy, and funding factors [5].

随着全球投资者对人民币资产配置需求的持续升温，离岸人民币债券市场（俗称"点心债"）正迎来新一 轮扩容高潮。 据Wind统计，2025年8月点心债单月净融资金额接近700亿元，为年内单月最高值。而9月第一周的发行 数据进一步印证了市场加速扩容的趋势。 业内人士指出，在政策支持、融资成本优势及人民币国际化进程的共同推动下，点心债发行有望进 入"提速期"。 净融资规模近700亿元 近日，深圳市政府首次在澳门特别行政区成功发行10亿元离岸人民币地方政府债券。本次发行1只应对 气候变化主题绿色债券，规模为10亿元人民币，发行期限为3年期，定价利率为1.74%，募集资金投向 清洁交通等项目。本次发行债券受到投资人踊跃认购，簿记峰值达到66.2亿元人民币，认购倍数达6.62 倍，创下人民币债券在澳门发行订单倍数历史新高。 海南省政府也计划于2025年9月择机在香港簿记建档发行不超过50亿元离岸人民币地方政府债券，并将 在香港联合交易所挂牌上市，发行期限为3/5/10年期，其中3年期为可持续发展债券、5年期为蓝色债 券、10年期为航天主题债券。 证券时报记者根据Wind数据统计，今年8月以来，点心债市场发行规模明显提速。8月 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report presents some basic economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 4.40%, and M2 at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 206.5 billion yuan in the 36th week (9/1 - 9/7) and 608 billion yuan in the 37th week (9/8 - 9/14). As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount reached 10.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.7 trillion yuan [1][5]. Treasury Bond and Local Bond - The net financing of treasury bonds was 169.8 billion yuan in the 36th week and 415.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 4.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 72.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [7]. - Local bond net financing was 36.7 billion yuan in the 36th week and 192.8 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 5.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.9 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds and New Special Bonds - New general bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 14.7 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 620.8 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year [9]. - New special bonds had a net financing of 178 billion yuan in the 36th week and 131.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 74.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 112.23 billion yuan had been issued, including 15.43 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special bonds of 32.84 billion yuan had been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - Special refinancing bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 26.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 1.96 trillion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [22]. - Urban investment bonds had a net financing of -36.9 billion yuan in the 36th week and are expected to be -10.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was 10.1 trillion yuan [2][27].

Market Overview - The bond market showed signs of recovery on September 11, with the main government bond futures rising in the afternoon and most closing higher, while interbank bond yields initially increased before declining [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan in the open market, with most funding rates continuing to rise [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed mixed results: the 30-year main contract fell by 0.11% to 114.740, while the 10-year contract rose by 0.07% to 107.580 [2] - Interbank yields for major bonds fluctuated, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.8075% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 4.21 basis points to 4.047% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, while in the Eurozone, yields for 10-year bonds in France, Germany, and Italy also declined [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Export-Import Bank's 1-year and 3-year financial bonds had bid yields of 1.3556% and 1.7377%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.21 and 1.99 [4] - Jilin Province's local bonds saw bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 21 times, indicating strong demand [4] Funding Conditions - The PBOC announced a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 5.6 basis points to 1.369% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the recent bond market adjustment has fundamental backing, but institutional behavior has a more direct impact, suggesting potential opportunities for trading [6] - Long-term forecasts indicate that the bond market may continue to experience weak fluctuations, with expectations of a return to a 1.6% yield for the 10-year government bond by year-end [6]

责任编辑：袁浩 编制方案显示，上海清算所海洋经济优选债券指数以经营范围涉及海洋渔业、海洋油气、海洋电 力、海洋运输、海洋工程、港口等海洋经济产业的发行主体所发行债券及蓝色债券为样本券，跟踪其价 格走势，可作为投资海洋经济主题债券的业绩比较基准和投资标的。指数代码SCH00933，基准日为 2018年1月2日，基点值为100。截至2025年9月1日，指数样本券327只，总市值4977亿元，样本券平均收 益率1.92%，平均修正久期3.11。 本报讯 记者张弛报道 为向市场参与者提供多样化的债券价格指标和投资标的，银行间市场清算所 股份有限公司（以下简称"上海清算所"）研究编制上海清算所海洋经济优选债券指数，于9月3日正式向 市场发布。 ...

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Report Date - The report was published on September 11, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 10, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.047, 4.632, 3.461 respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.041 (US) to 0.005 (Switzerland). Weekly changes were from -0.171 (US) to -0.057 (Switzerland). Monthly changes varied from -0.188 (US) to 0.127 (France). Annual changes were from -0.309 (Italy) to 0.579 (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 10, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.490, 3.936, 1.949 respectively. Latest changes were from -0.020 (US) to 0.033 (South Korea). Weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also showed different trends [3] Dollar - Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 10, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.409 with a latest change of -0.54%. Weekly, monthly, and annual changes also varied for different currencies [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On September 10, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6532.040 with a latest change of 0.30%. Weekly, monthly, and annual changes differed among various indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. [3] Credit Bond Indices - For credit bond indices including US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, etc., latest changes were from 0.03% (euro - area high - yield) to 0.46% (emerging - market high - yield). Weekly, monthly, and annual changes also showed different magnitudes [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3812.22, 4445.36, 2939.59 respectively on September 10, 2025. Percentage changes were 0.13%, 0.21%, 0.37% respectively [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.94, 11.79, 33.18 respectively. Their环比changes were 0.04, 0.04, - 0.03 respectively [5] Risk Premium - Risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 was -0.37 with a环比change of 0.03, and that of German DAX was 2.47 with a环比change of 0.02 [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. were -460.27, -445.33, etc. respectively. Their 5 - day average values also varied [5] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 19781.23, 5355.39, etc. respectively. Their环比changes were -1404.01, -273.22, etc. respectively [5] Main Contract Basis - Basis of IF, IH, IC were -12.96, -1.79, -68.71 respectively, and their basis spreads were -0.29%, -0.06%, -0.99% respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.725, 105.570, 107.490, 105.425 respectively. Their percentage changes were 0.00%, -0.01%, -0.08%, -0.01% respectively [6] - Money market rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4592%, 1.4988%, 1.5530% respectively, and their daily changes were -3.00BP, 1.00BP, 0.00BP respectively [6]

Group 1 - Emerging markets have shown strong performance this year, with global emerging market bond returns near 9% compared to 4.5% for US Treasury bonds, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 20% versus 14% for the MSCI World Index [1] - The weakening of the US dollar, economic resilience, and disruptive trends are driving the performance of emerging markets, necessitating selective investment strategies [1] - The overall view on emerging market equities is neutral, while there is optimism for local currency bonds in emerging markets [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment has improved, with the IMF predicting a narrowing of the economic growth gap between emerging and developed markets by 2025, despite structural changes in some countries that create favorable conditions for sustained growth [2] - Countries like India and Vietnam are excelling in services and manufacturing, while Mexico and Brazil demonstrate disciplined monetary policies, and Chile's strong financial system adds stability [2] - Some emerging markets have seen inflation rates return to pre-pandemic levels, with interest rate cuts already initiated in countries like Mexico, Indonesia, and Poland [2] Group 3 - The restructuring of supply chains benefits countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam, while Taiwan and South Korea are deeply involved in the semiconductor sector for AI development, and China is advancing its AI technology [3] - South American countries like Chile and Peru benefit from the demand for key materials under the low-carbon transition trend [3] - India is expected to develop into a leading digital economy due to its young population and accelerated digitalization, which supports a positive long-term outlook for emerging markets [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 10, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 304 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on the same day was 229.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly increased, remaining above 1.42% [2] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.40% [2] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.6775% [7] Group 4: Government Bonds - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.86% [13] - The yield for 1-year government bonds was reported at 1.4100% [10] Group 5: Economic Indicators - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year [14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [14] Group 6: Bond Market Developments - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs is set to be issued on September 12, with a fundraising cap of 3 billion yuan for each of the 14 products [14] - Recent negative events in the bond market included overdue debts from various companies, with a total overdue debt of 31.212 billion yuan reported for Longguang Holdings as of the end of August [17]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has adjusted with a steepening yield curve, and the correlation between stock and bond markets has weakened as of September. The overall bond market has returned to a fluctuating range without significant changes in the funding and economic fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - As of the latest data, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds are 1.41%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.15%, reflecting changes of 0.23, -0.93, 1.35, and 1.00 basis points respectively since the end of August [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a reasonable liquidity level, with a net injection of 3,865 billion yuan in August through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The current DR001 and DR007 rates are fluctuating around 1.4% and 1.45%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Economic Recovery - The trade data for August shows a year-on-year export growth rate of 4.4% and an import growth rate of 1.3%, both of which have decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.40%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating improvements in both supply and demand sides [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - There is a growing expectation for the PBOC to restart government bond trading, influenced by policy signals and changes in liquidity operations [6]. - The PBOC has been utilizing various tools for medium to long-term funding, with the balance of reverse repos increasing significantly since the end of 2024 [6]. - The necessity to restart government bond trading has increased due to the declining balance of government bonds held by the PBOC [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - With the PBOC's active liquidity support and reduced impact from government bond issuance, significant fluctuations in the funding environment are unlikely in September, and short-term bond trends are expected to remain stable [7]. - The long-term bullish logic for the stock market remains unchanged, which continues to exert downward pressure on long-term bonds [7].