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化工日报 | 2025-06-06 乙烷消息扰动下EG冲高回落 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4283元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.21%），EG华东市场现货价4430 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.34%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）130元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。 早间受美国乙烷出口受阻消息影响，乙二醇盘面快速拉涨，现货高位成交至4465元/吨附近，随后市场趋于冷静， 盘面震荡回落，另外隆众口径EG港口库存较周一增长3.77万吨，EG价格回落。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨（环比-8美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为92元/吨（环比-57 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨（环比-6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内 ...

2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：弱势延续，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：前期PTA持续去库下，当前现货市场流通性偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，不过下游聚酯大厂发出减产消息，聚酯负荷 预期下调，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端区间震荡，现货基差偏强波动，关注聚酯减产力度。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯工厂递盘，日内个别主流供应商6月 合约减量，现货基差走强。个别主流供应商出远期货。6月主港主流在09+195~200成交，略高在09+210有成交，个别略低在 09+190附近，价格商谈区间在4860~5030附近。7月供应商在09+125~145有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+199。中性 2、基差：现货4960，09合约基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Trend Intensity Ratings for Each Product - **Weak or Bearish Trends (-1)**: Rubber, Synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, Benzene styrene, Soda ash, PVC, Double - offset paper [11][16][31][36][60][66][78][109] - **Neutral Trends (0)**: PX, PTA, Asphalt, Caustic soda, Pulp, Glass, Urea, LPG, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container shipping index (European line), Staple fiber, Bottle chips [4][7][18][39][44][48][57][68][82][84][105] - **MEG (-1)**: MEG shows a relatively bearish trend [4] 2. Report's Core Views Overall Market View - The market presents a mixed picture with different products showing various trends. Some are facing downward pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances, while others are range - bound or showing signs of stability [2]. Specific Product Views - **PX and PTA**: PX supply is tight and in a de - stocking phase. It's recommended to hold a long PX and short PTA position. PTA processing fee compression positions should also be held, and the PTA monthly spread is expected to remain strong [4][7]. - **MEG**: The upside space for MEG is limited. A strategy of long PTA and short MEG is suggested. Although the short - term monthly spread is strong, further chasing is not recommended [4][7]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as decreased tire exports [9][12]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is in a weak operation state. The cost of butadiene has adjusted, and the supply of butadiene rubber may decrease in the future [14][17]. - **Asphalt**: It will oscillate within a range, and the shipment is weakening. The production and inventory situation shows some changes [18][30]. - **LLDPE and PP**: Both are in a weak state. LLDPE is affected by factors like new capacity and weak demand. PP has seen a slight price decline and general trading volume [31][36]. - **Caustic soda**: There is still pressure in the later stage. Although there is short - term support from downstream replenishment, the market may still tend to short the chlor - alkali profit [39][41]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as weakening prices and uncertain demand [44][46]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market has weak demand and high inventory, but there is cost support [48][49]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The spot price is declining, and the port inventory is showing different trends [52][55]. - **Urea**: It will oscillate. Domestic demand is weak, but exports provide some support [57]. - **Benzene styrene**: It will oscillate in the short term. The market is affected by factors such as terminal restocking and potential supply return [60][62]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change. The market is weak, and enterprises' new order reception is general [64][66]. - **LPG**: The civil gas is stabilizing, and the support for the futures market is strengthening. The industrial chain's operating rate is changing [68][74]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak state. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is uncertain [78][79]. - **Fuel oil and Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Fuel oil shows a short - term weak oscillation, and low - sulfur fuel oil had a significant night - session decline [82]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: It will oscillate at a high level. The freight rate is affected by factors such as supply and demand and shipping company strategies [84][97]. - **Staple fiber and Bottle chips**: Both will oscillate in the short term. Staple fiber is affected by raw material price fluctuations, and bottle chips' processing fees can be considered for long positions at low prices [105]. - **Double - offset paper**: It will oscillate weakly. The market has slow inventory consumption and weak trading [108][110]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, and MEG Fundamental Data - **Price Changes**: On May 27, 2025, PX, PTA, and PF prices increased by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively, while MEG decreased by 0.1% and SC decreased by 0.5% [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) all increased on May 27 compared to the previous day [4]. Market Overview - **PX**: Some PX devices in China, South Korea, etc., are planned to restart or increase production in June [6]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in Guangdong has restarted, and the planned arrival volume at major ports from May 26 to June 2 is about 76,000 tons [6]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on May 27 were differentiated, with an average sales rate of slightly over 50% [6]. Market Views - **PX**: Maintain a long PX and short naphtha/PTA strategy, and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread [7]. - **PTA**: Hold the processing fee compression position, and the monthly spread is expected to be long - term bullish [7]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and a long PTA and short MEG strategy is recommended [7]. Rubber Fundamental Data - The daily - session closing price of the rubber main contract on May 27 was 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan from the previous day, while the night - session closing price was 14,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan [11]. Industry News - In April 2025, China's small - passenger - car tire exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a cumulative increase in exports from January to April [12]. Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Data - On May 27, the daily - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract was 11,645 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day [14]. Industry News - The cost of butadiene has adjusted, with a decline in speculative demand and a decrease in production enterprise and port inventories [14][16]. - The supply of butadiene rubber may decrease in the future as processing profits approach the break - even point [17]. Asphalt Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of BU2506 was 3,523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%, and the closing price of BU2507 was 3,516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [18]. Market News - In June 2025, China's total asphalt production is expected to be 2.309 billion tons, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month and an increase of 8.5% year - on - year [30]. - From May 20 to May 26, 2025, China's weekly asphalt production decreased by 8.9% month - on - month and 3.5% year - on - year [30]. LLDPE Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of L2509 was 7,007 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03% [31]. Market Analysis - The LLDPE market price has declined. The supply pressure is large due to new capacity, and demand is weak, especially after the peak season for agricultural films [31][32]. PP Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of PP2509 was 6,896 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% [36]. Market News - The domestic PP market has declined slightly, with weak market trading [37]. Caustic Soda Fundamental Data - On May 28, the 09 - contract futures price was 2,449 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.33% [39][40]. Market Analysis - Although there is short - term support from downstream replenishment, the market may still tend to short the chlor - alkali profit due to factors such as potential weakening of demand after replenishment [41]. Pulp Fundamental Data - On May 27, the daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan from the previous day [45]. Industry News - The pulp market was weak on May 27, with a general decline in the spot price of softwood pulp and an increase in the decline of hardwood pulp [46]. Glass Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of FG509 was 1,031 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% [49]. Market News - The price of domestic float glass original sheets was stable with a slight downward trend, with weak demand and high inventory [49]. Methanol Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan from the previous day [53]. Market News - The methanol spot price index decreased, and most cities' prices declined. The port inventory showed a slight accumulation, and the market is expected to continue its weak operation [55]. Urea Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,814 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan from the previous day [57]. Market News - Domestic urea demand is weak, and the inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. However, exports may provide some support [57][59]. Benzene Styrene Fundamental Data - On May 27, the price of benzene styrene 2505 was 7,699 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [60]. Market News - The market was supported by downstream restocking, but new orders have not yet landed. High profits may stimulate an increase in supply, and attention should be paid to future supply return and port basis changes [61][63]. Soda Ash Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of SA2509 was 1,231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% [66]. Market News - The domestic soda ash market is weak, with some enterprises reducing prices and slow new - order reception [66]. LPG Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of PG2507 was 4,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [68]. Market News - The civil LPG is stabilizing, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have changed [68][74]. PVC Fundamental Data - On May 27, the 09 - contract futures price was 4,793 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price was 4,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 93 yuan [78]. Market Analysis - The PVC market is weak. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export sustainability is uncertain [78][79]. Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of FU2507 was 2,972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14%, and the closing price of LU2507 was 3,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% [82]. Market News - The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in the international market declined on May 27 [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) Fundamental Data - On May 27, the closing price of EC2506 was 1,782.0 points, a decrease of 4.31%, and the closing price of EC2508 was 2,048.4 points, a decrease of 3.67% [84].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In commodity trading, price volatility is the core risk affecting market stability and corporate operations. The Dalian Commodity Exchange recently solicited opinions on monthly average price futures contracts for three major chemical products, aiming to enhance the efficiency of the futures market in serving the real economy and meet the risk management needs of enterprises [2][8]. - Monthly average price futures contracts are innovative financial derivatives that help smooth price fluctuations caused by short - term changes in market supply and demand, and have unique significance in risk management, market pricing, and industrial chain stability [3][18][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Preface - Price fluctuations in commodity trading significantly amplify corporate operating risks. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's solicitation of opinions on monthly average price futures contracts for LLDPE, PP, and PVC aims to serve the real economy and meet enterprises' risk management needs [2][8]. 3.2 Design Key Points of Polyolefin Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Rules - Monthly average price futures are contracts settled based on the average price of the underlying asset within a month. The contract codes for polyethylene and polypropylene monthly average price futures are "L contract month F" and "PP contract month F" respectively [3][9]. - The trading unit, trading time, handling fees, margin, price limit, etc. of polyolefin monthly average price futures contracts are consistent with physical delivery futures contracts. The main differences are the cash delivery method, the number of contracts, and the last trading day [3][12][13]. - The trading limit for polyolefin monthly average price futures and physical delivery futures is set separately, with the total trading limit not exceeding that of existing varieties [13]. 3.3 Calculation of Polyolefin Monthly Average Price Futures Contract Settlement Price - Before the month before the contract month, the settlement price of the physical delivery futures contract is exactly the same as that of the monthly average price futures contract. In the month before the contract month, there are differences in the trends [16][17][18]. - During price increases, the settlement price center of monthly average price futures is lower than that of physical delivery futures, while during price decreases, it is higher, which helps smooth price fluctuations [17][18]. 3.4 Significance of Polyolefin Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts - Monthly average price futures contracts can smooth monthly price fluctuations, provide relatively stable price information, and avoid budget deviations caused by single - day price fluctuations [22][25]. - They can improve the price discovery function by integrating daily price signals and reflecting the medium - term supply - demand balance more truly [25]. - They can enhance market liquidity by attracting more financial institutions to participate in trading [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market continues to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. The main demand, the photovoltaic industry chain, remains weak, but the organic silicon industry chain shows some signs of improvement. With expected supply growth, weak demand, declining raw material costs, and expected production increases, the fundamentals are bearish, and prices remain under pressure [1]. Polysilicon - Demand is weak, but prices have fallen to the cash - flow range of polysilicon production. The long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease, and spot prices are gradually stabilizing. The polysilicon industry's fundamentals have an expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are expected to improve, but the futures price may still be under pressure technically [2]. Natural Rubber - Supply is affected by the delayed Thai tapping season and increased rainfall disturbing the tapping work, resulting in low raw material output and high raw material prices. Demand is weak as tire factories' inventories continue to accumulate. The rubber price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, with an operating range of 14,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to sell high within the range [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Despite the potential negative impact of Lianyungang Alkali Industry's production, the current production loss due to maintenance is significant, and the market has strong maintenance expectations in June. The short - term inventory is likely to remain stable. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. It is recommended to track maintenance implementation in May - June, and consider short - term high - selling operations for far - month contracts and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - **Glass**: The spot market is weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The spot price has further declined this week. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor due to the upcoming summer rainy season. The glass price is expected to remain under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged from May 22. The basis of these varieties decreased, with the largest decline of - 4.55% for the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507 decreased by 50.00%, while the spreads of 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, and 2509 - 2510 increased by 25.00%, 16.67%, and 50.00% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with Xinjiang's production dropping by 20.55%. Yunnan and Sichuan's production increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and Xinjiang's开工 rates decreased, while Yunnan's decreased slightly, and Sichuan's increased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while the industrial silicon export volume increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 6.95%, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.26%, Sichuan's decreased by 0.44%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.84%. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.41%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.73% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged from May 22. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material decreased slightly [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The price of PS2506 increased by 0.03%. The spread of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 88.62%, while other spreads remained unchanged [2]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly**: Silicon wafer production increased by 7.09%, and polysilicon production increased by 0.47%. - **Monthly**: In April, polysilicon production decreased by 0.73%, imports decreased by 69.49%, exports decreased by 37.06%, and net exports increased by 127.44%. Silicon wafer production increased by 14.95%, imports increased by 46.90%, exports increased by 7.13%, and net exports increased by 2.64%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 14.36% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00%, silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.17% [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 0.68%, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 1.03%, and the basis of whole latex increased by 1750.00%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.50% [3]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.63%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.55%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.11% [3]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production decreased by 56.93%, Indonesia's increased by 5.92%, India's decreased by 28.38%, and China's production started from zero. The weekly tire factory operating rates decreased slightly. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 5.07%, and tire exports decreased by 7.87%. In March, natural rubber imports increased by 18.07%, and in April, imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 9.21%. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber changed slightly [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory increased by 0.73%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 38.02%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China decreased by 0.88%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 0.80% and 1.77% respectively [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.22% and 2.51% respectively [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.04%, and the weekly production decreased by 2.05%. The float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged. The price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% [5]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.82%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [5]. Real Estate Data - The new - construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 26 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：长丝计划检修，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | | 2025-05-21 | 6766 | 4788 | 4414 | 6544 | 3571 | | 2025-05-20 | 6668 | 4732 | 4413 | 6506 | 3556 | | 2025-05-19 | 6752 | 4776 | 4475 | 6544 | 3563 | | 日度变化 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...