晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 10 日-12 月 16 日）A 股市场主要指数全部震荡调整，其中创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 4.29%； 上证 50 跌幅最小，下跌了 1.44%。此外，上证综指下跌 2.17%，深证成指下跌 2.73%，科创 50 下跌 3.99%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，中证 500 下跌 1.69%。 12 月 16 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24, ...

截至收盘，上证指数收报3870.28点，上涨1.19%；深证成指收报13224.51点，上涨2.4%；创业板指收报3175.91点，上涨3.39%。两市合计成交 18111.46亿元，较上一交易日增加869.72亿元。 12月17日，A股市场整体上涨。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超67亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出64.62亿元，尾盘净流入33.23亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出67.3亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-12-17 | -67. 30 | -64. 62 | 33. 23 | 47. 03 | | 2025-12-16 | -520. 66 | -188. 21 | -55.16 | -268. 81 | | 2025-12-15 | -360. 27 | -151.41 | -55. 63 | -167.99 | | 2025-12-12 | -89. 34 | -136. 84 | -5 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on December 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3870.28 points, up 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13224.51 points, up 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index at 3175.91 points, up 3.39% [1] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 181.11 billion yuan, an increase of 8.70 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 6.73 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 6.46 billion yuan and a closing net inflow of 3.32 billion yuan [2] - Over the last five trading days, the main funds have shown a consistent outflow trend, with the highest outflow recorded on December 16 at 52.07 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The CSI 300 index saw a net inflow of 5.145 billion yuan, while the ChiNext index had a net inflow of 4.067 billion yuan on December 17 [4] - The electronics sector led the net inflow with 20.983 billion yuan, followed by the communication sector with 13.836 billion yuan and non-ferrous metals with 12.724 billion yuan [7] Institutional Activity - Notable institutional buying included stocks such as Juguang Technology with a 17.34% increase and a net institutional purchase of 291.32 million yuan, and Shennan Circuit with a 10.00% increase and a net purchase of 173.44 million yuan [11] - Conversely, stocks like Tongyu Communication and Huaren Health saw significant net outflows from institutions, with declines of 10.00% and 13.11%, respectively [11] Analyst Ratings - Analysts have recently rated several stocks positively, including Honglu Steel Structure with a target price indicating a potential upside of 56.76% and Anfu Technology with a potential upside of 26.56% [12]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.28 points, up 1.19%, with a trading volume of 766.8 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13224.51 points, up 2.4%, with a trading volume of 1044.325 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3175.91 points, up 3.39%, with a trading volume of 495.114 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1325.33 points, up 2.47%, with a trading volume of 50.2 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets reached 1811.125 billion yuan, an increase of 86.946 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, insurance, precious metals, electronics, chemicals, power equipment, and media [2] - Concepts like CPO, lithium mining, optical communication modules, liquid cooling, copper cable high-speed connections, fluorine chemicals, PCB, and composite current collectors showed active trends [2] - The agriculture, defense, and liquor sectors experienced declines, with weaker trends in concepts like space stations, satellite internet, duty-free, rental sales, and grain [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 6.73 billion yuan [3] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 4.067 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced a net outflow of 5.145 billion yuan [4] - The telecommunications sector had the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 4.529 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2117 stocks saw net inflows of main funds, with 93 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 1.426 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi Sheng, Shenghong Technology, Tianfu Communication, and others [6] - Conversely, 3043 stocks experienced net outflows, with 75 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Pingtan Development, with 1.459 billion yuan, followed by Yonghui Supermarket, Aerospace Development, and others [8] Institutional Activity - Institutional seats had a net buy of approximately 471 million yuan, with 16 stocks being net bought and 11 stocks being net sold [9] - The stock with the highest net buy from institutions was Juguang Technology, with about 291 million yuan [10] - The stock with the highest net sell was Yingweike, with approximately 22 million yuan, followed by Xue Ren Group, Guangxun Technology, and others [11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% on December 17, with 28 out of the 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by the communication and non-ferrous metals sectors, which increased by 5.07% and 3.03% respectively [1] - The retail sector saw a modest increase of 0.18%, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, defense, and coal sectors faced declines of 0.54%, 0.20%, and 0.11% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital in the two markets reached 9.51 billion yuan, with 16 sectors experiencing net inflows. The communication sector led with a net inflow of 6.449 billion yuan, coinciding with its 5.07% increase [1] - The electronics sector followed with a daily increase of 2.48% and a net inflow of 6.340 billion yuan [1] - Conversely, 15 sectors experienced net outflows, with the defense sector leading at a net outflow of 4.870 billion yuan, followed by the retail sector with a net outflow of 2.313 billion yuan [1] Retail Sector Analysis - The retail sector's overall performance included 97 stocks, with 56 stocks rising and 38 stocks declining. Four stocks hit the daily limit up [2] - Notably, the stock "Bubugao" saw a net inflow of 488 million yuan, while "Nanjing Shanglv" and "Cuiwei Shares" followed with net inflows of 159 million yuan and 144 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included "Yonghui Superstores" at 1.951 billion yuan, "Hongqi Chain" at 334 million yuan, and "China Duty Free" at 290 million yuan [2] Key Stocks in Retail Sector - "Yonghui Superstores" decreased by 3.24% with a turnover rate of 18.96% and a net outflow of approximately 1.951 billion yuan [2] - "Hongqi Chain" increased by 2.63% with a turnover rate of 35.14% and a net outflow of approximately 334 million yuan [2] - "China Duty Free" saw a slight decrease of 0.47% with a turnover rate of 1.71% and a net outflow of approximately 290 million yuan [2]

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，涨停个股中，主板有55只，创业板3只，科创板1只。以所属行业来看，上 榜个股居前的行业有机械设备、通信、医药生物行业，上榜个股分别有6只、6只、5只。 涨停股中，ST中迪、*ST铖昌等9只股为ST股。连续涨停天数看，*ST铖昌已连收6个涨停板，连续涨停 板数量最多。从收盘涨停板封单量来看，*ST宁科最受资金追捧，收盘涨停板封单有2551.25万股，其次 是翠微股份、古鳌科技等，涨停板封单分别有1609.51万股、879.18万股。以封单金额计算，深南电路、 翠微股份、古鳌科技等涨停板封单资金较多，分别有2.60亿元、2.27亿元、1.48亿元。（数据宝） 两市涨停股一览 截至收盘，上证指数报收3871.44点，上涨1.22%；深证成指收于13224.51点，上涨2.40%；创业板指上 涨3.39%；科创50指数上涨2.49%。 | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 换手率（%） | 涨停板封单（万股） | 封单资金（万元） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002916 | 深南电路 | 222.53 | 2 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the positive impact of the entrepreneurial guarantee loan policy in Guangxi, which has significantly improved the financing conditions for small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, leading to increased production capacity and job creation [1][2][3] Group 1: Entrepreneurial Guarantee Loan Policy - The entrepreneurial guarantee loan policy in Guangxi features low interest rates, low thresholds, and simplified processes, with individual maximum loan amounts of 300,000 yuan and small enterprises up to 4 million yuan [2] - The policy includes a fiscal subsidy covering 50% of the loan interest, and eligible individual entrepreneurs can be exempt from counter-guarantees [2] - The Guangxi human resources and social security department has established a "policy promotion + precise connection" service mechanism to ensure that policy benefits reach grassroots levels [2] Group 2: Impact on Businesses - Guangxi Wuhua Trading Co., led by veteran He Jixian, doubled its bottled water production capacity from 40,000 to 80,000 barrels per month after securing a 200,000 yuan entrepreneurial guarantee loan [1] - Guangxi TianTian Food Technology Co., facing operational difficulties, successfully applied for a 4 million yuan loan, which allowed them to enhance product development and increase production capacity by 200%, with foreign trade orders rising by nearly 20% [1][2] - From January to November 2023, Guangxi issued a total of 3.217 billion yuan in entrepreneurial guarantee loans, double the amount from the same period in 2024, directly supporting 11,100 entrepreneurs and creating 59,100 jobs [3] Group 3: Future Directions - The Guangxi human resources and social security department plans to continue enhancing the entrepreneurial guarantee loan service, focusing on key groups such as college graduates and veterans, and will promote policy awareness through various activities [3] - The aim is to shift from "people finding policies" to "policies finding people," providing professional entrepreneurial guidance to increase success rates and unleash entrepreneurial potential in the region [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a decline on December 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.11%, and the total margin financing balance across exchanges decreased to 2504.835 billion yuan, a reduction of 0.0834 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Margin Financing Overview - As of December 16, the margin financing balance in the Shanghai market was 1272.111 billion yuan, an increase of 5.286 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen market's balance was 1224.967 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.159 billion yuan; and the Beijing Stock Exchange's balance was 7.757 billion yuan, an increase of 0.039 billion yuan [1]. - The total margin financing balance across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2504.835 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.0834 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Industry Analysis - Among the industries tracked by Shenwan, 13 sectors saw an increase in financing balance, with the non-bank financial sector leading with an increase of 0.763 billion yuan, followed by the retail and computer sectors with increases of 0.500 billion yuan and 0.303 billion yuan, respectively [1]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1720 stocks experienced an increase in financing balance, accounting for 45.84% of the total, with 199 stocks seeing an increase of over 5% [1]. - The stock with the highest increase in financing balance was Beikang Detection, which had a latest financing balance of 6.2493 million yuan, reflecting a 127.23% increase from the previous trading day, and its stock price rose by 0.71% [1]. - Other notable stocks with significant increases in financing balance included Zhongchao Holdings and Zhongcheng Consulting, with increases of 54.33% and 53.10%, respectively [1]. Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the largest increase in financing balance, the average stock price increased by 2.54%, with notable gainers including Shunyu Precision (19.94%), Jingchuang Electric (12.49%), and Huanle Home (10.74%) [2]. - Conversely, the top losers included Hongxi Technology (-10.59%), Yipin Hong (-10.45%), and Fengfan Co. (-8.28%) [2]. Declining Stocks - In contrast, 2032 stocks saw a decrease in financing balance, with 203 stocks experiencing a decline of over 5%. The stock with the largest decrease was Meizhigao, with a financing balance of 1.8816 million yuan, down by 28.98% from the previous trading day [4]. - Other stocks with significant declines included Dapeng Industrial and Taipeng Intelligent, with decreases of 24.11% and 23.85%, respectively [4].

Wind统计显示，12月16日，申万31个一级行业中有13个行业获融资净买入，其中，非银金融行业获融 资净买入额居首，当日净买入7.63亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有商贸零售、计算机、银行、汽 车、公用事业等。 个股方面，12月16日，有1721只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在3000万元以上的有90股。其中，12股 获融资净买入额超1亿元。中国平安获融资净买入额居首，净买入7.54亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还 有永辉超市、航天电子、恒瑞医药、北汽蓝谷、特变电工、中国卫通等股。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

人民财讯12月17日电，截至12月16日，市场融资余额合计2.49万亿元，较前一交易日减少4.59亿元。分 行业统计，有13个行业融资余额增加，非银金融融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加7.63亿元；其次是商 贸零售，融资余额增加5亿元；融资余额减少的行业有18个，电子、电力设备、通信等行业融资余额减 少较多，分别减少23.66亿元、19.01亿元、17.55亿元。 ...