Core Viewpoint - The company announced its 2025 annual report, achieving revenue of 162.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 was 162.354 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.96% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.636 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.18% [1][2]. - If the fair value change of financial instruments, which was -3.782 billion yuan, is added back, the net profit would exceed 26 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2025 was 25.56%, down 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.88%, down 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The average return on equity (ROE) was 18.83%, a decrease of 3.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The asset-liability ratio was 42.25%, down 5.99 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Operating cash flow was 38.995 billion yuan, an increase of 14.75% year-on-year [2]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for 2025 was 10.657 billion yuan, with future capital commitments for building plants at 5.833 billion yuan, both lower than 2024 figures [2]. - The company is expected to have more abundant operating cash flow in the future due to reduced capital expenditures [2]. Business Segments Performance 1. **Aluminum Alloy** - Sales volume was 5.824 million tons, unchanged year-on-year, with an average selling price of 18,216 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 3.8% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from aluminum alloy was 106.096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with a gross profit margin of 28.5%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. 2. **Alumina** - Sales volume was 13.397 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, with an average selling price of 2,899 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down 15.2% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue from alumina was 38.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a gross profit margin of 22.2%, down 13.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. 3. **Aluminum Alloy Processing** - Sales volume of deep processing products was 716,000 tons, unchanged year-on-year, with an average selling price of 20,874 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 3.1% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue from aluminum alloy processing was 14.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a gross profit margin of 19.2%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS for 2026-2028 to be 3.24, 3.50, and 3.78 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The core pricing lines of the global market in 2026 are as follows: Overseas, the "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" balance between the US and Iran restricts the escalation of the conflict, but the secondary inflation risk from oil prices is reversing the global liquidity expectations, and the Fed's policy path is becoming more divergent. Domestically, Chinese assets have a triple safety premium, but the A-share market is still in a risk release stage. The core investment strategy in 2026 is "defense and counterattack" [2]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: News drives the market. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The situation in the US - Iran conflict is complex, with Trump claiming progress in negotiations while Iran denying it [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Trump's claim of progress in US - Iran dialogue led to a drop in the US dollar index, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell due to liquidity shocks and geopolitical uncertainties. With the easing signal of the Middle East situation, the stock index may rebound, but the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the sharp fall of the A - share market, the bond market may rebound. It is recommended to use grid operations, sell high - position long orders in a timely manner, and gradually build long positions if the price continues to fall [6]. - **Container Shipping (Europe Line)**: The futures market is in a high - level volatile state, with a game between geopolitical emotions and the off - season fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [7][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, the demand for lithium carbonate in downstream industries still has a strong support [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: It is affected by the callback cycle of the non - ferrous metal sector. In the long run, the demand for these two products will improve as the photovoltaic industry develops [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, the copper price rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds. If it fails to break through with heavy volume, the market may be volatile [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It was affected by systematic risks and rebounded slightly at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term due to inventory and macro factors [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed certain resilience. The supply of sulfur in the nickel industry chain is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is a game between supply and macro - level factors [21][22]. - **Tin**: It followed the sector down and rebounded at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term and the long - term center of gravity may move upward [23]. - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation under the pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [24]. Oils and Fats & Feed - **Oilseeds**: The relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process affected the market. It is recommended to enter the market for reverse arbitrage between monthly spreads [25][26]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils fluctuated with crude oil. It is necessary to focus on the biofuel policies of Indonesia and the US this week [27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply due to Trump's remarks. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 [29][30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was dragged down by weak demand. The market's strength slowed down, but the price decline space is limited [32]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core factors. The supply of asphalt is reduced, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to combination strategies [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They continued to decline under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view on precious metals, and pay attention to position control [35][36][37]. - **Gold & Silver**: They had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view, and they may oscillate at a low level in the short term [38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price rose, and the market is expected to be neutral in the short term. Both pulp and offset paper futures can maintain interval trading [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market fluctuated due to the changeable attitude of the US. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain [43][44]. - **LPG**: The futures price rose sharply due to capital emotions. The market is expected to return to the fundamental logic, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [45][46][47]. - **Methanol**: The price was affected by the Iran - US situation. It is recommended to conduct a 5 - 6 reverse arbitrage and a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. - **PP & Propylene**: The night - session price fell due to the news of US - Iran negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51][52]. - **Plastic**: The night - session price fell with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54][55]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber fluctuated greatly, and natural rubber rose slightly. Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to oscillate and stabilize [61][62]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a high supply pressure, and glass is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [63][64][65]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of raw materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported in the short term but is under pressure in the medium and long term [68][69]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increase is mainly due to market expectations. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - selling near - month contracts lightly if the price rises to a certain range [70]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and oscillate strongly. The impact of the hurricane on manganese ore production areas needs attention [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [73]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has support below. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation of US cotton [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The short - term sugar price may maintain an oscillatory pattern [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [78]. - **Apples**: The futures market is driven by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [85][86]. - **Peanuts**: The futures price may fall if the Middle East situation eases. It is recommended to short lightly [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The price may oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand [89]. - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory is consumed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the early stage, reduce long - position holdings, and use interval trading and short - term short - selling strategies [90][91].

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report by Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on green finance and new energy futures, including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 1: Stainless Steel Core View - Overseas macro factors exert downward pressure, while current costs provide support [2][5] Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,035, down 30 from the previous day. The trading volume was 232,842, down 93,283 from the previous day [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products, and a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. There are also production quota adjustments and various incidents in the nickel industry [5][6][8] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Attention should be paid to the bottom support [13] Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 149,040, up 5,180 from the previous day. The trading volume was 228,178, down 30,098 from the previous day [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Rongjie Co., Ltd. established a subsidiary to engage in lithium - ion battery anode material business, and Tianjin Lishen Battery applied for a patent related to solid - state electrolytes [16][17] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to inventory changes; polysilicon is in bottom - range oscillation [18][19] Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,575 yuan/ton, up 120 from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.3 million tons. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 35,435 yuan/ton, down 2,330 from the previous day [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: Tongwei signed a 1GW component cooperation agreement with a Polish distributor, which will deepen its layout in the European market [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is experiencing increased disturbances, leading to a larger price fluctuation range [1]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Price Change**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 92,100 with a daily decline of 2.79%, and the night - session closing price was 94,840 with a night - session increase of 2.98%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 12,221 with a 3.27% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 441,582, a decrease of 26,409 from the previous day, and the open interest was 576,091, an increase of 1,857. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading was 51,691, an increase of 24,062, and the open interest was 292,000, a decrease of 944 [1]. - **Inventory and Related Ratios**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 274,115, a decrease of 13,737. The LME Copper inventory was 347,475, an increase of 5,125, and the注销仓单 ratio was 13.09%, a decrease of 0.25% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as LME copper basis, bonded - area bill premium, bonded - area warehouse - receipt premium, and differentials between spot and futures showed different changes compared to the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: US media reported that multiple countries are coordinating talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad this week, but Iran denied that its speaker is negotiating with the US. The Iranian military said it has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz and listed 11 potential targets. Israeli media reported that the US is considering a ground operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island [1]. - **Industry News**: Zambia aims to more than triple its copper production to 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah due to a worker - death accident. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and its February scrap - copper imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Peru's January copper production increased by 3% year - on - year [3]. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,813, down 3.63% for the day and 6.58% over the last 20 trading days [2][6] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,346, down 3.76% for the day and 5.35% over the last 20 trading days [2][6] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,235, down 3.49% for the day and 1.24% over the last 20 trading days [2][6] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,382, down 3.54% for the day and 9.97% over the last 20 trading days [2][6] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 51,515, down 3.48% for the day and 10.36% over the last 20 trading days [2][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.38% to close at 46,208, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.15% to 6,581 [2][6] Group 2: Key Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a share buyback of 21 million A-shares, accounting for 0.08% of its total share capital, with a buyback price range of 29.82 to 31.15 CNY per share [6] - Lu'an Environmental Energy won the coal exploration rights for a block in Shanxi Province for 8.222 billion CNY, with a coal resource estimate of 49.178 million tons [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price has experienced a nine - day consecutive decline [4][6]. - Silver: It has fallen from the oscillation platform [2]. - Copper: Disturbances have increased, and the price fluctuation range has been magnified [2][8]. - Zinc: It has rebounded from the bottom [2][11]. - Lead: It lacks a clear driving force, and the price fluctuates [2][15]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2][18]. - Aluminum: Inventory accumulation has slowed down; Alumina: It is oscillating at a high level; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Platinum: It has shown some recovery [27]. - Palladium: It mainly oscillates [26]. - Nickel: There are contradictions between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; Stainless steel: It is suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs [2][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00, with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00, with a decline of 1.30%. The price of Comex Gold 2602 was 4410.40, with a decline of 1.82%. The price of London Gold spot was 4407.35, with a decline of 1.88% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 386,422, an increase of 43,191 compared with the previous day, and the position was 62,764, a decrease of 6,229 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 106,746 kilograms, a decrease of 99 kilograms compared with the previous day [4]. - **News**: Spot gold has experienced a nine - day consecutive decline. Trump said that the dialogue with Iran in the past two days was "fruitful", and the US is coordinating talks with Iran in Islamabad this week, but Iran denied the negotiation [4][6][7]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498, with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00, with an increase of 3.47%. The price of Comex Silver 2602 was 69.320, with an increase of 2.23% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,668, a decrease of 2,980 compared with the previous day, and the position was 55,828, a decrease of 3,257 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 364,549 kilograms, an increase of 2054 kilograms compared with the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,100, with a daily decline of 2.79%, and the night - session closing price was 94840, with an increase of 2.98%. The price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,221, with an increase of 3.27% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 441,582, a decrease of 26,409 compared with the previous day, and the position was 576,091, an increase of 1,857 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 274,115 tons, a decrease of 13,737 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Copper was 347,475 tons, an increase of 5,125 tons [8]. - **News**: Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22800, with a decline of 0.59%. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3056, with a decline of 0.57% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 120371, a decrease of 39372 compared with the previous day, and the position was 103488, a decrease of 2642. The trading volume of LME Zinc was 11509, a decrease of 7462, and the position was 206153, an increase of 27 [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 100598 tons, a decrease of 1911 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Zinc was 117175 tons, a decrease of 500 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Energy Secretary said that the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves again was low [12]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16395, with an increase of 0.64%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 1889, with a decline of 0.42% [15]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 63444, a decrease of 13162 compared with the previous day, and the position was 89207, a decrease of 3934. The trading volume of LME Lead was 7154, a decrease of 3005, and the position was 174625, a decrease of 12316 [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 58024 tons, a decrease of 150 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Lead was 284075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [15]. - **News**: The US is coordinating talks with Iran in Islamabad this week, but Iran denied the negotiation [16]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 328,300, with a decline of 4.37%, and the night - session closing price was 348,950, with an increase of 3.23%. The price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,500, with an increase of 3.87% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,175, a decrease of 36,348 compared with the previous day, and the position was 24,984, a decrease of 2,200. The trading volume of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 944, a decrease of 232, and the position was 21,342, a decrease of 28 [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,978 tons, a decrease of 508 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME Tin was 8,805 tons, a decrease of 115 tons [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24020, a decrease of 160 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3041, an increase of 14 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22810, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day [22]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 561560, an increase of 101192 compared with the previous day, and the position was 280023, a decrease of 12381. The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 707158, a decrease of 273561 compared with the previous day, and the position was 245836, a decrease of 22397. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 8397, a decrease of 983 compared with the previous day, and the position was 4781, a decrease of 294 [22]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 135.70 million tons, unchanged compared with the previous day. The inventory of LME aluminum ingots was 42.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous day [22]. - **News**: Iran denied the negotiation with the US, and the Fed official said that the short - term oil price fluctuation was not enough to change the expectation of four interest rate cuts this year [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 457.75, with a decline of 10.20%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 327.85, with a decline of 11.12% [26]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 19,143 kilograms, an increase of 10,450 compared with the previous day, and the position was 21,471 kilograms, a decrease of 2,175. The trading volume of NYMEX Platinum was 24.502 kilograms, a decrease of 6.866 compared with the previous day, and the position was 48,934 kilograms, an increase of 7.060. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 7.127 kilograms, an increase of 3,530 compared with the previous day, and the position was 8.529 kilograms, a decrease of 746. The trading volume of NYMEX Palladium was 23,275 kilograms, an increase of 8.050 compared with the previous day, and the position was 46.161 kilograms, an increase of 146 [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 579,274 ounces, unchanged compared with the previous day. The inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 248.374 ounces, an increase of 3.197 compared with the previous day [26]. - **News**: Japan is considering intervening in oil futures, and the Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 132,980, a decrease of 180 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,035, a decrease of 30 compared with the previous day [31]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 463,882, a decrease of 73,519 compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 232,842, a decrease of 93,283 compared with the previous day [31]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines have production changes such as restarts, suspensions, and production quota adjustments [31][32][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market data, option factors, and provides trading strategies for various有色金属 options including aluminum alloy (AD), aluminum (AL), alumina (AO), copper (CU), nickel (NI), lead (PB), tin (SN), and zinc (ZN) [3][15][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Aluminum Alloy (AD) - **Market Data**: The ad2604 contract closed at 22,525 yuan, down 190 yuan or 0.83% from the previous day. The trading volume was 7,674 lots, a decrease of 723 lots, and the open interest was 4,574 lots, a decrease of 207 lots [3][6] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of AD options remained above the average of 0.1337. The open interest PCR was 0.9861, at the 18.38% level in the past year. The pressure level was 26,600, and the support level was 22,000 [5][6] - **Trading Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to gain option time - value, and adjust positions dynamically to keep delta neutral, e.g., S_AD2605P22400, S_AD2605C23800 [7] 3.2. Aluminum (AL) - **Market Data**: The al2605 contract closed at 2,355 yuan, down 330 yuan or 1.38% from the previous day. The trading volume was 585,888 lots, an increase of 24,328 lots, and the open interest was 266,791 lots, a decrease of 13,232 lots [15][18] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of AL options remained above the average of 0.1656. The open interest PCR was 0.5255, at the 3.27% level in the past year. The pressure level was 29,000, and the support level was 23,000 [17][18] - **Trading Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to gain option time - value, and adjust positions dynamically to keep delta neutral, e.g., S_AL2605P23000, S_AL2605P23400, S_AL2605C25000, S_AL2605C26000 [19] 3.3. Alumina (AO) - **Market Data**: The ao2605 contract closed at 3,093 yuan, up 88 yuan or 2.92% from the previous day. The trading volume was 740,278 lots, an increase of 33,120 lots, and the open interest was 246,810 lots, an increase of 974 lots [27][30] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of AO options remained above the average of 0.3269. The open interest PCR was 0.4798, at the 75.92% level in the past year. The pressure level was 3,400, and the support level was 2,800 [29][30] - **Trading Strategies**: For directional strategy, construct a bull call spread strategy to gain directional profit. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to gain option time - value, and adjust positions dynamically to keep delta neutral, e.g., S_AO2605P2800, S_AO2605C3200 [31] 3.4. Copper (CU) - **Market Data**: The cu2605 contract closed at 92,100 yuan, down 2,300 yuan or 2.43% from the previous day. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, a decrease of 27,508 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots, an increase of 3,232 lots [39][42] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of CU options remained above the average of 0.2303. The open interest PCR was 0.8067, at the 57.55% level in the past year. The pressure level was 116,000, and the support level was 90,000 [41][42] - **Trading Strategies**: For directional strategy, construct a bear put spread strategy to gain directional profit, e.g., B_CU2605P104000, S_CU2605P90000. No volatility strategy [43] 3.5. Nickel (NI) - **Market Data**: The ni2605 contract closed at 132,980 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.09% from the previous day. The trading volume was 463,882 lots, a decrease of 73,519 lots, and the open interest was 179,706 lots, an increase of 6,570 lots [51][54] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of NI options remained above the average of 0.3094. The open interest PCR was 0.5363, at the 42.45% level in the past year. The pressure level was 150,000, and the support level was 130,000 [53][54] - **Trading Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination strategy with a short - bias to gain option time - value, and adjust positions dynamically to keep delta short, e.g., S_NI2605P126000, S_NI2605P130000, S_NI2605C146000, S_NI2605C150000 [55] 3.6. Lead (PB) - **Market Data**: The pb2605 contract closed at 16,395 yuan, up 25 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day. The trading volume was 63,444 lots, a decrease of 13,162 lots, and the open interest was 89,207 lots, a decrease of 3,934 lots [63][66] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of PB options remained above the average of 0.1827. The open interest PCR was 0.6932, at the 54.29% level in the past year. The pressure level was 17,000, and the support level was 16,000 [65][66] - **Trading Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to gain option time - value, and adjust positions dynamically to keep delta neutral, e.g., S_PB2605P15800, S_PB2605P15200, S_PB2605C17200, S_PB2605C17600 [67] 3.7. Tin (SN) - **Market Data**: The sn2604 contract closed at 328,300 yuan, down 14,990 yuan or 4.36% from the previous day. The trading volume was 268,175 lots, a decrease of 36,348 lots, and the open interest was for 24,984 lots, a decrease of 2,200 lots [75][78] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of SN options remained above the average of 0.3781. The open interest PCR was 0.4695, at the 4.90% level in the past year. The pressure level was 450,000, and the support level was 280,000 [77][78] - **Trading Strategies**: For directional strategy, construct a bear put spread strategy to gain directional profit, e.g., B_SN2605P350000, S_SN2605P300000. No volatility strategy [79] 3.8. Zinc (ZN) - **Market Data**: The zn2605 contract closed at 22,800 yuan, down 15 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day. The trading volume was 120,371 lots, a decrease of 39,372 lots, and the open interest was 103,488 lots, a decrease of 2,642 lots [87][90] - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility of ZN options remained above the average of 0.1777. The open interest PCR was 0.5489, at the 1.63% level in the past year. The pressure level was 25,000, and the support level was 23,600 [89][90] - **Trading Strategies**: For directional strategy, construct a bear put spread strategy to gain directional profit, e.g., B_ZN2605P24200, S_ZN2605P22000. No volatility strategy [91]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 24, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded to around 7.4, but the zinc ingot import window remains closed [7]. - There is a significant differentiation in inventory performance between the domestic and overseas markets. After a large delivery in the overseas market, LME zinc inventories have rebounded to around 118,000 tons, indicating weak overseas consumption [7]. - In the domestic market, as zinc prices fall, downstream buyers are more willing to set prices at low points. With the seasonal recovery of the three major sectors and the lifting of environmental protection restrictions in the north, galvanizing production has basically returned to the pre - holiday level. Social inventories continued to decline by 10,900 tons to 255,700 tons on Monday [7]. - Although the bearish sentiment in the macro - aspect has not completely dissipated, and high overseas inventories and weak consumption are putting pressure on zinc prices, domestic social inventories have started to decline, and downstream consumption is gradually fulfilling the peak - season expectations. In the short term, the weak trend of Shanghai zinc has not been reversed, but with the continuous improvement of spot trading and inventory reduction, the room for further decline is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair at a low level [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2604, the opening price was 23,025 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,770 yuan/ton, the highest was 23,025 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,650 yuan/ton, the change was - 40 yuan/ton, the change rate was - 0.18%, the holding volume was 38,315, and the change in holding volume was - 6,760. For SHFE zinc 2605, the opening price was 23,000 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,800 yuan/ton, the highest was 23,025 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,675 yuan/ton, the change was - 15 yuan/ton, the change rate was - 0.07%, the holding volume was 103,488, and the change in holding volume was - 2,642. For SHFE zinc 2606, the opening price was 23,020 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,830 yuan/ton, the highest was 23,040 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,695 yuan/ton, the change was - 20 yuan/ton, the change rate was - 0.09%, the holding volume was 35,958, and the change in holding volume was 1,053 [7]. 2. Industry News - On March 23, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,800 and 23,060 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price of Shuangyan was between 22,880 and 23,130 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,730 and 22,990 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM average price [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,870 - 22,970 yuan/ton. Regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of - 35 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,800 and 22,990 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded between 22,900 and 23,010 yuan/ton, 1 zinc ingots were traded around 22,780 - 22,900 yuan/ton. Zijin quoted at par to the 2604 contract, Hu zinc was quoted at 23,820 yuan/ton, and 0 zinc ingots quoted a discount of 20 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8]. - In Guangdong, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 22,850 and 22,965 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands quoted a discount of 50 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2605 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained stable [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventories, with data sources from Wind and SMM [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, with information being mixed and the direction of the geopolitical situation being uncertain. Short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on factors such as the smoothness of the global energy transportation route and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and downstream demand, while others are more influenced by geopolitical factors and cost factors [4][5][8]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices had a sharp drop last night. The short - term price has high two - way fluctuation risks due to various news, and the long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the global energy transportation route [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Expected to follow crude oil, showing a pattern of strong support at the bottom, being easily affected by news, and having wide - range oscillations. The supply side is affected by the Middle East conflict, and there is a rigid demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in summer, while low - sulfur fuel oil has support from the component side [22]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery supply is tightening, and the downstream demand has a chance of improvement. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The BU direction will follow the oil price [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: There was a V - shaped reversal last night, with high short - term volatility, waiting for further clarity on the war situation [3]. - **Copper**: The price rebounded with Trump's release of news about US - Iran negotiations. Pay attention to the possible agreement on the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in price attracted downstream buying, and the inventory decreased. The expected price range of the 2605 main contract is 90000 - 96500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rebounded slightly. The inventory and the spot market improved as the price dropped. It has support at 23000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The low price stimulated downstream replenishment, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to stop falling between 2.2 - 2.25 ten thousand yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price led to increased downstream replenishment, and the inventory decreased. The domestic lead market has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The rebound momentum is insufficient, and 1.62 ten thousand yuan/ton is the key support [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price weakened, and the market was active. Affected by the strong US dollar, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia [10]. - **Tin**: The price rebounded to the MA5 moving average. The supply of raw materials has improved, and the domestic refined tin production is expected to recover in March. The tin market may show a pattern of being strong at home and weak abroad. Pay attention to overseas inventory changes [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It oscillated and rose sharply at the end. The overall inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the inventory structure changed. Technically, it is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price dropped significantly. The fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and consider gradually taking profits when approaching the cost range [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price in East China increased slightly. The supply increment is limited, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern [14]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The price is expected to oscillate mainly [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose during the day. The inventory changed little, and the procurement intention of traders improved slightly. The price is likely to rise easily and fall difficultly due to energy concerns [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price hit the daily limit. The coal mine production increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to rise easily and fall difficultly due to energy concerns [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated at a high level. The impact of the typhoon on manganese ore shipping is small, the port inventory increased slightly, and the demand increased [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated upward. The demand increased, the supply increased slightly, and the price may be driven by manganese silicon [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic device operation rate decreased slightly. The agricultural demand weakened, and the industrial demand increased. Affected by the international price, the domestic market was active. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of policies [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume at coastal ports was low, the MTO operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The domestic device operation rate increased, and the downstream demand recovered. The market is expected to remain strong [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price followed the oil price to fall. The domestic production load decreased, the downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory decreased. Pay attention to the oil price and geopolitical risks [26]. - **Styrene**: The price was affected by the oil price to fall. The fundamentals are good, the supply - demand has no obvious change, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be strong [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Affected by the oil price, the prices of chemical products fell. The supply of propylene decreased, and there is support for the price. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is supported by cost and device maintenance, but the downstream purchasing is cautious [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC price fell at night. The supply decreased, the downstream demand increased seasonally, and the export market is expected to be good. The caustic soda price fell at night, the inventory decreased, and the supply pressure was relieved. The price is expected to follow the sentiment [29]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell with the oil price. The industry load decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The price is affected by the energy and the Middle East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load of ethylene glycol decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the export expectation increased. The price was affected by the oil price to fall at night. Pay attention to the situation development, export performance, and downstream load [31]. - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The bottle - chip benefit improved, and the load increased. The prices are affected by the Middle East situation [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The price fell at night. The inventory reduction continued but slowed down. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [33]. Rubber - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply. The natural rubber supply is about to enter the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased, and the tire operation rate increased. The inventory of natural rubber increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [34]. Agriculture - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the US - Iran war, the international oil price is high, and the global agricultural supply chain is at risk. Pay attention to the US - Iran situation, energy, fertilizers, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [36]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The oil price fell, and the price difference between vegetable oil and diesel is narrowing, which is beneficial to biodiesel. The new - season crops are at risk of fertilizer supply interruption and cost increase. Pay attention to the Middle East situation and macro - expectations [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price fell at night. The focus of the rapeseed market is on imports. The Canadian rapeseed import has recovered, and the Australian rapeseed policy has not changed. The price is expected to follow the sector [38]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of the main contract decreased. Affected by the oil price and new - season crop risks, pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [39]. - **Corn**: The port price increased slightly, and the domestic price was mixed. The US corn price affects the domestic price, and the wheat auction may impact the corn price. Pay attention to the Northeast grain sales progress, state - reserve auction information, and futures funds [40]. - **Pork**: The spot price continued to fall, the inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year. The futures price is expected to squeeze the premium [41]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price is slightly strong. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [42]. - **Cotton**: The price rose slightly. Affected by the energy price, the price difference between cotton and short - fiber narrowed. The demand in March was good, and the import increased. The domestic market is expected to be bullish [43]. - **Sugar**: The international market focuses on the new - season Brazilian production, which is expected to decline. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the weather in the third quarter [44]. - **Apple**: The futures price dropped significantly. The market focus is on the demand side. The demand in the Northwest is good, but the demand for Shandong apples is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Timber**: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to be low, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Pulp**: The price rose slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The overseas quotation is strong, and the domestic demand is general. It is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share index fell sharply, and the futures index also fell. The external market was mostly up. Pay attention to the key support levels of the A - share index, and consider an equilibrium strategy in the medium - term [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year contract rose, and the other contracts fell. The war duration is expected to be longer, and the dollar index oscillates around 100. The long - end is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rebound after over - decline [49].

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]