中金 7 月数说资产 20250715 摘要 二季度 GDP 同比下降 1.3%，连续九个季度负增长，其中建筑业拖累显 著，出口贡献下降，投资和消费贡献上升。6 月出口改善，但内需回落， 社会零售总额增速放缓至 4.8%，固定资产投资增速降至 2.8%。 A 股近期表现强劲，突破年内高点，主要受市场情绪和资金面驱动。短 期市场可能进入震荡消化期，但中期看好，公募私募仓位低，A 股估值 具吸引力，若政策催化，下半年有望突破去年高点。 建议采取两头策略：保留红利资产作为底仓，结合中报、行业周期和产 业趋势布局，相对看好 AI 算力、创新药、军工、有色金属等行业。 解决供需失衡难度大，反内卷板块上涨主要因仓位、估值和位置低。未 来上涨需关注反内卷政策落实，而非盲目乐观。 6 月金融数据表现良好，社融和信贷超预期，反映信贷需求恢复，M1 和 M2 增速回升。三季度初信贷或回落，需关注政策性金融工具和房地产 刺激政策的影响。 6 月二手房市场同比下降 2%，房价承压，提升后续政策发力可能性。 房地产企业到位资金同比跌幅与 5 月持平，销售回款拖累明显，竣工跌 幅收窄，开发商投资意愿有限。 6 月社会消费品零售总额同比增 ...

| | 7月15日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9645. 50 | 1 26.50 | ↑ 0.28% | | 三个月期铝 | 2580. 50 | +-11.50 | +-0. 44% | | 三个月期锌 | 2697.00 | +-33.00 | +-1.21% | | 三个月期铅 | 1996.00 | +-7.00 | +-0. 35% | | 三个月期镍 | 15146.00 | ↑ 82.00 | 1 0.54% | | 三个月期锡 | 33312.00 | +-222.00 | +-0.66% | 伦敦时间7月15日17:00(北京时间7月16日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收盘上涨26.50美元，或0.28%，报每 吨9,645.50美元。铜价本月迄今已下跌逾2%，已从7月初创下的三个月高点每吨10,020美元回落。 大宗商品市场分析公司Commodity Market Analytics董事总经理Dan Smith表示，短期内铜价可能回落至 每吨9,58 ...

2025年7月4日，中诚信国际公布评级报告，中国有色矿业集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行 科技创新可续期公司债券(第一期)(品种一)获"AAAsti"评级。 中诚信国际肯定了中国有色矿业集团有限公司（以下简称"中色集团"或"公司"）资源储备丰富且产业链 完整，规模优势突出、盈利及经营获现水平均有所上升，经营质量提升以及畅通的融资渠道等方面的优 势对公司信用水平起到的支撑作用；但中诚信国际也关注到盈利易受行业周期性波动以及海外业务面临 一定风险等因素可能对公司经营和整体信用状况造成的影响。 资料显示，中国有色矿业集团有限公司是由国务院国有资产监督管理委员会直接管理的大型国有骨干企 业，其前身是于1983年成立的中国有色金属对外工程公司（以下简称"对外工程公司"），隶属于中国有 色金属工业总公司。1995年12月28日，根据对外贸易经济合作部批复，对外工程公司更名为"中国有色 金属建设集团公司"。1997年1月，经国务院批复，中国有色金属建设集团公司剥离优质资产，组建成立 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司（以下简称"中色股份"，000758.SZ），并于同年4月16日在深圳证券交 易所上市。根据中国有色金 ...

中金研究 2025年二季度GDP同比5.2%，较一季度回落0.2个百分点，季调环比1.1%，较一季度的1.2%有所放缓 [1]。6月单月来看，受出口带动，工业增加值同比6.8%（5月为5.8%），但内需有所回落，政策仍需 进一步加力，关注7月政治局会议定调。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观：内需回落，政策仍需加力 二季度 GDP 增速小幅回落，平减指数降幅扩大。 6 月单月来看，出口带动工业，但内需回落较多。网络 促销前移叠加监管政策扰动，社零增长放缓。建筑安装工程投资增速回落带动固定资产投资增速回落， 三大项投资增速皆回落。总体来看， 6 月数据显示内需回落较多，政策仍需进一步加力，关注 7 月政治局 会议定调。 二季度GDP增速小幅回落，平减指数降幅扩大。 2025年二季度GDP同比5.2%，较一季度回落0.2个百分 点，季调环比1.1%，较一季度的1.2%有所放缓。从生产法来看，第一、二、三产业同比增速分别为 3.8%、4.8%、5.7%（一季度分别为3.5%、5.9%、5.3%）。其中第二产业回落幅度（1.1个百分点）高于 规模以上工业增加 ...

今年以来，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，宏观政策组合效应不断释放，国民经 济平稳运行，消费领域价格总体平稳，生产领域价格低位运行。 一、消费领域价格总体平稳，核心CPI逐步回升 能源价格降幅扩大。上半年，能源价格同比下降3.2%，降幅比一季度扩大2.1个百分点，对CPI的下拉影 响比一季度增加约0.17个百分点。 核心CPI逐步回升。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI月度同比自3月份起逐步回升，6月份上涨0.7%，创 14个月以来新高。服务价格涨幅扩大。上半年，服务价格同比上涨0.4%，涨幅比一季度扩大0.1个百分 点，影响CPI上涨约0.15个百分点。上半年，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨0.4%，涨幅比一季度 扩大0.3个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.09个百分点。其中，受国际金价上行影响，金饰品价格上涨 36.4%，涨幅比一季度扩大2.2个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.17个百分点；燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价 格降幅逐步收窄，上半年分别下降4.5%和4.0%，合计影响CPI下降约0.14个百分点。 二、生产领域价格低位运行 上半年，PPI比上年同期下降2.8%。分月看，1月份、2月份，春节假 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of listed companies in the first half of the year is strong, with over 57% of companies issuing positive profit forecasts, indicating a significant increase in expected net profits compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of July 15, 2023, 1,529 listed companies in the A-share market have released performance forecasts, with a total expected net profit of 2,321.92 billion yuan, up 67.31% from 1,387.77 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - A total of 880 companies are expected to report positive results, with 190 companies expected to turn losses into profits and 481 companies anticipating year-on-year profit growth [2]. - The non-bank financial, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and electronics sectors are the main contributors to the profit increase, each with net profit growth exceeding 10 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The steel and transportation industries are showing signs of recovery, with over 50% of companies in these sectors issuing positive forecasts [3]. - In the steel sector, 24 companies are expected to report a total net profit of -2.733 billion yuan, a significant improvement from -10.097 billion yuan in the previous year, with 79.17% of companies reporting positive forecasts [3]. - The transportation sector is expected to achieve a total net profit of 1.433 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of -3.452 billion yuan last year, with major contributions from the airline sector [3][4]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities - Institutions are optimistic about three key sectors: resource products, emerging industries driven by policy, and digital new media (TMT) [5]. - The resource products sector, particularly industrial and small metals, is benefiting from supply-demand dynamics, with significant price increases observed in various metals [5]. - Emerging industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals and deep-sea technology are expected to see high growth potential, supported by favorable policies [5][6]. - The electronic industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing, with significant demand for high-end semiconductor products [5][6].

作为"市场风向标"之一，两融资金的动向备受关注。近期，两融余额持续回升，创下3个月新高。截至7 月14日，最新两融余额为18853.90亿元，占A股流通市值的2.25%。两融余额连续6个交易日增加。从融 资余额看，7月7日至14日，A股融资净买入额分别为63.59亿元、54.88亿元、38.43亿元、47.68亿元、 20.82亿元和97.38亿元。 7月以来，A股融资净买入额始终保持在较高水平，其间融资净买入额累计超过300亿元。去年9月底与 10月初新入市投资者大幅增加，彼时融资资金活跃度也一度陡升，截至去年10月8日两融余额为 15478.37亿元，目前两融余额已较当时增加超过3300亿元。 "两融余额的增加反映了投资者对市场的信心在增强。短期来看，沪指重返3500点，提振了市场信心， 有望继续吸引场外资金进场。今年6月，A股新开户数达165万户，同比增长53%。进入7月，A股公司 2025年半年度业绩预告加速披露，盈利改善主线将进一步明晰。而且，近期外资持仓市值连续两个季度 攀升，上半年北向资金持仓市值增加近800亿元，显示市场风险偏好显著提升。"中国政法大学商学院资 本金融系教授胡继晔表示。 ◎记者 ...

从行业角度看，券商、创新药、人工智能、有色金属、食品饮料等行业上市公司业绩表现亮眼，近期部 分业绩超预期的公司股价连续涨停或大涨。例如，南方精工7月14日公布中报预告净利润预增286倍至 357倍，15日早盘高开，当日收涨2.85%。 后市展望：中报窗口期有望助市场上行 7月15日，A股首份2025年半年业绩报告出炉，"中报季"正式拉开序幕。广州日报全媒体记者通过Wind 数据梳理，截至发稿时，共有1495家公司公布了2025年上半年业绩预告，净利润预增10倍的企业有33 家。 从当日市场反应来看，中报业绩高增长股受追捧。券商机构分析称，半年报披露窗口期成为A股的上行 动力，为指数后续突破上行、触发关键正反馈效应创造了有利条件。机构看好有色、AI硬件、创新 药、游戏和军工的轮动可能性。 | 部分上半年业绩预告净利润增长超10倍上市公司 | | | --- | --- | | 公司名称 预告归母净利润 | 同比 | | 华银电力 约1.8亿元~2.2亿元 | 增长 3600.7%~4423.07% | | 北方稀土 约9亿元~9.6亿元 | 增长 1882.54%~2014.71% | | 华西证券 约4.45 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated around 78,000 yuan today. After hitting a low of 77,600 yuan in the morning, it rebounded. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. After the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the spot market became looser. The narrowing scrap - refined copper price spread will support the futures price. The profit from LME imports indicates a stronger domestic copper price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the copper price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 78,000 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated around 20,400 yuan today, with a continuous decline in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, the spot market became looser, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday. Recently, overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories have also started to rise. The main futures price retreated after hitting a previous high, and the off - season in the industry dragged down the futures price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the aluminum price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated lower today, with an increase in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, the supply of the ore end became looser, and the support for the nickel price weakened. The downstream stainless steel followed the decline of the black metal sector. Technically, pay attention to the support at the previous low of 119,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons from July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 695,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 4.032 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to June, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.238 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. On July 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from July 10 and an increase of 18,000 tons from July 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 15, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,970 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,170 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,520 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, calendar spread, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, calendar spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, calendar spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][44].

2025年上半年，港股通资金流量创历史新高，南向资金主导市场。港股通累计成交金额为4.8万亿港元， 同比增长50 %，占港股市场总成交额的19%，影响力持续提升。此外，外资回流共振显著。外资通过ETF 等渠道重返港股，iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF年内净流入超7亿美元，与南向资金形成合力。 | 指标 | 2025H1 | 2024H1 | 同比变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 累计成交金额(万亿港元) | 4.8 | 3.2 | +50% | | 净流入规模(亿港元) | 7,300 | 1,420 | +414% | | 日均成交额(亿港元) | 2,402 | 1,882 | +27.6% | | 占港股总成交比例 | 19% | 15% | +4pct | 从成交活跃度来看，上半年港股通日均成交金额为2402亿港元，创历史新高，远超2021年牛市水平（1882 亿港元），符合历史"全面牛市"特征。此外，与2021年的市场环境相比，2025年已发生根本性变化——当 前港股估值处于历史低位，而2021年则处于估值高位。这种差异使得当前资金流入更具可持续性 ...