Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。据新华社，会议指 出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质 量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规 则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取 必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新 计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View - The reference view of crude oil 2506 is to run strongly, with short - term being volatile, medium - term being volatile and weakening, and intraday being volatile and strengthening. The core logic is the escalation of US - Iran conflict and the reduction of supply expectations in the crude oil market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For crude oil 2506, short - term (within a week) is volatile, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is volatile and weakening, and intraday is volatile and strengthening. The reference view is to run strongly [1]. Price and Market Performance - Due to the short - term positive factors, on Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices rose significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 3.40% to 495.3 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump reduced the intensity of the tariff war, releasing positive signals and increasing the risk appetite of the financial market. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran's energy, escalating the US - Iran conflict. OPEC+ required Kazakhstan and Iraq to compensate for the insufficient crude oil production cuts, reducing the future supply expectations of the crude oil market [5].

首席点评：金银回调，油价续涨 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 李强指出，在政策制定实施和政府工作的方方面面，都要有稳预期的意识，特别要结合形势变化，提高 政策针对性、有效性。要讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出 手，对预期形成积极影响。欧洲央行如期下调利率 25 个基点，为自去年 6 月以来第七次下调利率。欧 央行行长拉加德表示，经济前景笼罩在极大的不确定性中，经济下行风险有所增加。美国 3 月新屋开工 数下降 11.4% ，创一年来最大降幅，高房价和抵押贷款利率高企导致需求疲软，使得建筑商对破土动 工缺乏信心。美国能源部备忘录报道称，特朗普政府考虑砍掉将近 100 亿美元清洁能源资金，可能会在 氢能源、碳捕捉、 ETC 领域削减（政府）资金支持。 重点品种： 玻璃、原油、 贵金属 玻璃 ：周四，玻璃期货延续弱势，市场情绪仍有分歧，商品普遍受到关税冲击导致的对于内需消费的 观望情绪主导。玻璃自身目前库存缓慢去化，市场亦步亦趋。中期角度，目前经过 2 个月的玻璃累库， 等待开工后采购需求推动消化玻璃存量库存。本周玻璃生产企业库存 5624 万重箱， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: April 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the context of the trade war, the market has a pessimistic outlook on crude oil demand, and it is difficult for oil prices to have room for a trending increase. Oil prices are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations from news. Consider buying call options and setting timely profit - taking. The SC crude oil futures are relatively strong due to sanctions [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $60.96, closing at $61.94, with a high of $62.31, a low of $59.87, a gain of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 26.78 million lots. Brent's opening price was $64.03, closing at $65.04, with a high of $65.43, a low of $63, a gain of 1.82%, and a trading volume of 27.79 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 482.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 487.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 473.9 yuan/barrel, a gain of 2.31%, and a trading volume of 14.99 million lots [6] - **News Impact**: On the evening of April 16, the US Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran's energy sector, affecting a refinery in Shandong. During the Iran - nuclear deal negotiations, the US continued to pressure Iran, and Iran's attitude was tough, with a low probability of reaching an agreement. OPEC received an updated compensatory production cut plan on April 16, reducing supply after May and an average of 72,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025. After the update, the new supply in May decreased to 33,000 barrels per day [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Buy call options and set timely profit - taking [7] 2. Industry News - OPEC received updated compensatory production cut plans from eight countries, reducing oil production by 305,000 barrels per day until June 2026 [8] - Iraq plans to cut crude oil exports by 70,000 barrels per day in April [8] - Fitch lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $5 to $65 per barrel and maintained its natural gas price forecast [8] - The US Treasury announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil tankers, and the US Treasury Secretary said the US is ready to reduce Iran's energy exports to zero [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][21]

Group 1: International Insights - Jefferies has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 points to 5300 points [1] - BlackRock indicates that while US stocks are under short-term pressure, they remain attractive in the long term [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that the British pound may continue to perform poorly against the euro [2] - Morgan Stanley has reduced its economic growth forecast for South Korea to 1% for this year [2] Group 2: Domestic Insights - CICC has raised its expectations for oil surplus while lowering its oil price forecast [2] - CITIC Securities highlights strategic opportunities for domestic scientific instruments due to the push for self-sufficiency [2] - CITIC Construction Investment notes that the rare earth sector is well-positioned for both offensive and defensive strategies, recommending active attention [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates accelerated capacity expansion for BC batteries [2] - Guojin Securities emphasizes the government's determination to expand domestic demand, focusing on two major directions [2] - CITIC Construction Investment advises caution against bottom-fishing US Treasuries in the mid-term [2] - Galaxy Securities expects a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with increased expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：进出口规模平稳增长 一季度我国贸易出口 6.13 万亿元，实现 6.9%的较快增长，在压力下展现强劲韧 性，中国制造高端化、智能化、绿色化转型动能强劲，新能源产品继续在全球绿 色转型中发挥重要作用；进口 4.17 万亿元，下降 6%，国内工业生产较快增长、 零部件和设备进口增加，消费市场平稳向好、部分民生商品进口增加。美国 3 月 一年期通胀预期升至 3.58%、创 18 个月新高，中长期通胀预期均稳定；3 月失业 恐慌情绪创疫情以来最严重程度，特朗普关税助燃通胀前景。OPEC 将今明两年 全球石油需求增长预期下调了约 10 万桶/日，原因是特朗普的关税冲击对消费造 成了影响。尽管哈萨克斯坦表示控制供应，但该国再次提高了产量，上月日产增 至 185.2 万桶，比承诺的高 42.2 万桶。 重点品种：股指、原油、贵金属 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续反弹，纺织服饰板块领涨，家用 电器板块领跌，全市成交额 1.31 万亿元，其中 IH2504 上涨 0.54%，IF2504 上涨 0.20%，IC2504 上涨 0.27%，IM2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].

这个市场中，一则关税消息的影响力之大，足以让此前所有基于技术面的分析预测瞬间失效。回顾近期行情，我们可以清晰看到，短短三天内，黄金价格先 是大幅下跌211美元，而后又迅速反弹，三天内暴涨2275美元。如此剧烈且频繁的价格波动，几乎完全是由各类消息所驱动，再次凸显了消息面在当前黄金 市场中的决定性作用。 黄金技术面分析：从单纯的技术分析视角出发，周线大阳线的强劲表现，明确显示出当下多头势力掌控全局的市场格局。值得关注的是，亚盘在过去一个多 月的时间里，形成了一种独特的开盘必涨规律。深入盘面细节，我们可以发现，黄金美盘的低点3220-3215区域成为了多空强弱的关键分水岭。当价格运行 于该区域上方时，市场呈现出明显的强势特征；一旦价格跌破这一区域，市场则极有可能转向弱势格局。 同样亚盘回撤低点3185-3190区域，也构成了多空的重要分界线，价格维持在此区域之上，多头占据主导；若不幸跌破，市场很可能迅速切换至空头模式， 甚至引发快速暴跌行情。展望上方空间，目前仍存在较大的不确定性，投资者可重点关注3245-3250区域的新高突破情况，随后则是3265-3260区域以及具有 重要心理意义的3300美元大关。由于周末 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in social financing growth and the importance of monitoring tariff developments, particularly in relation to the U.S. trade policies and their impact on various sectors [1][2][3]. Financial Sector - In the stock index, the electronic sector led the gains following Trump's exemption of electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs," with total market turnover reaching 1.39 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.756 billion yuan to 1.802312 trillion yuan [2][8]. - The A-share market has shown resilience against downward pressure from tariffs, with implied volatility significantly decreasing, indicating improved market confidence [2][8]. Energy Sector - In the oil market, the SC futures rose by 1.59%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration downgraded global oil demand forecasts, while Trump announced a staggering 145% tariff on the second-largest economy and largest oil importer [3][10]. - The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 was significantly reduced to $67.87 per barrel from a previous estimate of $74.22 [3][10]. Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to strengthen, reaching historical highs due to escalating trade tensions and market uncertainties. The market anticipates potential quantitative easing and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4][18]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and inflationary pressures has further propelled gold's strong performance [4][18]. Agricultural Products - In the agricultural sector, the U.S. temporarily suspended tariffs on certain countries, leading to a rebound in soybean prices. The USDA report did not adjust key figures for U.S. soybean production, but raised the crushing data to 2.42 billion bushels [29][30]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index experienced fluctuations, with the SCFI for the European line showing a slight increase. However, the overall demand for container shipping is expected to decline due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [31].