1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - home transactions in the real estate market showed a month - on - month recovery but were still lower than the seasonal level year - on - year, while the second - hand housing transactions achieved year - on - year growth, indicating a divergence between new and second - hand housing. - The automotive consumption recovered, while the movie box office declined. - The industrial operation in the production field was stable, and the infrastructure construction maintained resilience. - In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and the cement price rebounded from a low level. - Most commodity futures declined, with significant drops in coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass. - The central government highly concerned about the continuously pressured real estate market. It was expected that the real estate policy toolbox might be further opened, but the probability of a large - scale stimulus was low. Instead, the market would achieve a new balance through policy support [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New - home transactions increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 1.745 million square meters, up 10% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. Second - hand housing transactions in key cities mostly increased month - on - month and year - on - year. - Automotive consumption increased week - on - week, while movie - going consumption increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership declined marginally [2][12]. 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and the rebar operating rate remained flat week - on - week. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 75.1%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 0.9 pct to 91.4%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.2 pct to 30.7%. - In the downstream sector, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but the rebar price decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 22, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.6% to 1.948 million tons, and the rebar price decreased by 1.8% to 3,346.2 yuan/ton. - The cement price increased by 1.6% to 105.1 points week - on - week. As of the week ending August 15 (latest data), the cement shipping rate remained basically flat at 40.1%, and the cement inventory ratio decreased by 1.2 pct to 61.6% [64]. 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, the container throughput at ports decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index decreased by 1.5% week - on - week. The freight rates of European, West - American, and East - American routes decreased week - on - week. The BDI index also decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. - In terms of imports, the CICFI composite index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week [73]. 3.5 Price - The agricultural product price index increased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pork price decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, while the egg price increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the vegetable price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the fruit price decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. - The Nanhua industrial products price index decreased by 1.4% week - on - week. The spot price of Brent crude oil remained flat week - on - week, the COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. Most commodity futures declined, with asphalt, caustic soda, and industrial silicon having the highest increases, and coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass having the largest decreases [6][83]. 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (August 25 - 29), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 382.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.4 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 237.1 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 243.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank financial bonds is 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 140 billion yuan. - As of August 22, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year was 96.7%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 69.9% [7][106]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The government emphasized taking effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, such as promoting urban renewal, renovating urban villages and dilapidated houses, and releasing improvement - oriented housing demand. - Other policies included regulating the construction and operation of PPP projects, exempting personal income tax on childcare subsidies, conducting MLF operations, standardizing the photovoltaic industry competition order, etc. [117]

Core Insights - The report suggests that a long-term bullish asset breaking below the annual line typically indicates a good entry point, recommending investors adopt a persistent mindset and defensive counterattack strategy in response to the current insufficient Calmar ratio in the bond market [1][3][21] Group 1: Asset Price and Annual Line - The annual line (MA250) serves as a medium to long-term trend anchor, representing the average cost over the past year and is viewed as the market's long-term equilibrium price. A price drop below this line often signals a weakening market sentiment and a potential trend reversal [11][12] - A downward breach of the annual line is interpreted as a bearish signal, indicating that the market may be entering a medium to long-term bear phase, which could trigger stop-loss or reduction actions among investors [11][12] Group 2: Review of Mainstream Assets - The 10-year government bond futures exhibit a clear long-term momentum trend, with strong support expected near the annual line. Historical analysis shows that the T contract has often rebounded after touching the annual line, indicating potential for recovery [13][14] - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced multiple breaches of the annual line in recent years, with significant volatility and no clear support at the annual line, leading to substantial annual drawdowns [17][18] - The Nasdaq Index has shown a similar pattern, with significant movements around the annual line, reflecting the impact of macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment on its performance [20][22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report emphasizes that unless a long-term bull market is confirmed to have ended, the current situation presents a favorable entry point for investors. The historical performance of the T contract supports this view, as most years have proven effective for entry after a breach of the annual line [3][21] - Short-term downward momentum may persist due to concentrated stop-loss releases following the breach, but as long as the bull market trend continues, the report suggests that opportunities outweigh risks [3][21]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with a notable increase in yields, while the stock market is thriving, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - On August 22, the issuance of 30-year special government bonds reached 83 billion yuan, with a bid rate of 2.15%, but the subscription multiple was only 2.89 times, indicating weak market demand [1]. - The bond market has seen a decline since early August, particularly affecting long-term bond funds, with some funds experiencing daily net value drops exceeding 0.5% [1][6]. - The issuance results of the 30-year bonds heightened market concerns, as the issuance rate exceeded the secondary market rate of 2.075%, reflecting a lack of demand even for highly secure assets [6][7]. Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The A-share market is witnessing unprecedented growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, leading to a significant influx of capital into equities [1][2]. - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, where a booming stock market results in a cooling bond market, as institutions prefer equities when expected returns are higher [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Different types of bond funds are showing varied performance; short-term bond funds remain stable, while ultra-long bond funds and interest rate bond funds have suffered significant losses [6][9]. - Mixed bond funds have performed well due to their limited equity exposure, effectively hedging against bond market declines [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market's recovery may depend on the stock market's performance; if the A-share market remains strong, the bond market may continue to struggle [9][11]. - There is a potential for re-evaluation of bond investment opportunities as yields rise, with a key psychological threshold identified at a 1.80% yield for 10-year government bonds [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, highlighting that while the stock market is rising, the bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, including changes in macroeconomic expectations and shifts in risk appetite [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Since early July, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.78%, an increase of 8.2%, while the yield on 30-year bonds has reached 2.08%, up 11.46% [3]. - The primary reason for the bond market's adjustment is attributed to changes in market sentiment leading to a diversion of funds [3][5]. Investor Sentiment - The recent "stock-bond seesaw" effect and heightened risk appetite have led to a shift in asset allocation, with equities showing a higher risk-reward ratio compared to bonds [5]. - Despite some redemption pressures on bond funds, the overall situation is manageable, with no large-scale redemptions reported [7]. Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market is unlikely to see a significant rise in interest rates in the short term, with expectations of a "grinding top" market behavior [1][9]. - The bond market is expected to return to a pricing mechanism based on fundamentals and liquidity in the medium to long term [10]. Investment Strategies - In the current environment, strategies focusing on short to medium-term fixed-income assets are recommended, as the bond market may experience volatility [9][10]. - There are opportunities in credit bonds, particularly in financial bonds, as the market adjusts [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of taxes on bond interest and overseas investment income signals a shift in the government's approach to asset investment profits, indicating an expectation of increased returns from capital markets in the future [1][11]. Group 1: Taxation Changes - The government has announced the taxation of interest from national and local bonds, ending the era of tax exemption on bond interest [1]. - There are rumors of a 20% personal income tax on profits from overseas stock investments, indicating a broader trend of taxing asset investment profits [1]. - The anticipated revenue from bond interest taxation could reach 50 billion annually, suggesting a significant increase in the scale of national debt [2]. Group 2: National Debt and Economic Signals - The potential revenue from bond interest tax implies that the national debt could reach approximately 50 trillion, three times the current scale, which may lead to more aggressive monetary stimulus [2]. - The introduction of asset profit taxation reflects a transition into a new industrialization cycle, which is crucial for understanding investment and asset price dynamics [2][11]. Group 3: Industrialization Cycle - The industrialization cycle is divided into four stages: initial accumulation, growth, maturity, and post-industrialization [4][5]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift from industrial growth to maturity, where the financing ratio between industrial and financial sectors becomes more balanced [8]. - In the maturity phase, a developed financial market is essential for optimizing investments and providing individuals with opportunities for wealth accumulation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - As the financial market develops, personal income from capital investments is expected to rise, potentially equating to wage income [11]. - The recent surge in the stock market may not be an anomaly but could become a regular occurrence as the economy transitions [11]. - Investors are encouraged to adapt to the evolving industrial landscape and seek opportunities in the capital market while managing risks [11].

Primary Market - A total of 31 offshore bonds were issued this week (August 18-22, 2025), including 2 offshore RMB bonds, 19 USD bonds, 8 HKD bonds, 1 THB bond, and 1 JPY bond, with issuance scales of 1.484 billion RMB, 10.097 billion USD, 4.25 billion HKD, 700 million THB, and 10.1 billion JPY [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 774 million RMB by Hangzhou Fuyang Transportation Development Investment Group [1] - The highest coupon rate for RMB bonds this week was 5%, issued by Zhengzhou Jianzhong Construction Development Group [1] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 5 billion USD by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, with the highest coupon rate of 7% issued by Zhangzhou Yuanshan Development Co., Ltd. [1] Secondary Market - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index rising by 0.03% to 246.82 [2] - The investment-grade USD bond index also increased by 0.03% to 239.26, while the high-yield USD bond index rose by 0.04% to 246.82 [2] - The real estate USD bond index decreased by 0.09% to 183.34, while the city investment USD bond index increased by 0.1% to 150.95 [2] - The financial USD bond index rose by 0.04% to 286.88 [2] Default and Restructuring - China Glass announced a default on a loan of 140 million USD, failing to make a payment of 141.7 million USD on the due date [4] - Country Garden is working towards completing its overseas debt restructuring by the end of 2025, with strong support from creditors [10] - Sunac China announced plans to restructure 9.552 billion USD of debt, with approximately 75% of creditors signing a support agreement [11] - Guangzhou Times Holdings announced a suspension of all outstanding corporate bonds starting August 25, 2025, to arrange for future debt repayments [12] - Yuzhou Group's restructuring proposal for its 375 million USD offshore debt due in 2027 has been approved by a majority of qualified bondholders [13] Market News - The Bond Connect Northbound trading volume reached 957.6 billion RMB in July, with policy financial bonds and government bonds being the most active [5] - A total of 14 new science and technology innovation bond ETFs were reported on August 20, indicating rapid expansion in this category [6][7] - The People's Bank of China announced the issuance of 45 billion RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong, with two different maturities [8] Overseas News - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated expectations of rising inflation in the short term, with most officials believing inflation risks outweigh employment risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The trading data for the 30-year government bond (511130) indicates a significant level of financing activity, with a net buying trend observed over the recent trading days [1] Financing Activity - On August 22, the 30-year government bond (511130) recorded a financing buy amount of 361 million yuan, ranking 57th in the market [1] - The financing repayment amount on the same day was 359 million yuan, resulting in a net buy of 2.06 million yuan [1] - Over the last three trading days (August 20-22), the financing buy amounts were 401 million yuan, 414 million yuan, and 361 million yuan respectively [1] Short Selling Activity - On August 22, there were no shares sold short for the 30-year government bond, resulting in a net short sale of 0.00 shares [1]

智通财经APP获悉，投资者争相购买目前很少有公司愿意发行的证券：长期债券。美国蓝筹公司30年期或以上期限债 券的需求十分旺盛，认购金额平均约为待发行债券金额的五倍。这一比例高于2021年以来的任何时期。 需求增长使得二级市场的利差有所收窄。截至周四收盘，10年期或以上债券的风险溢价今年已收窄6个基点，而短期和 中期债券的风险溢价仅收窄2个基点。 道明证券美国企业债券银团主管Jiyann Daemi表示："目前，任何期限较长的债券都面临着巨大的、超额的需求，因为 投资者有动力将资金投入利率较高、供应不足的市场领域。" 今年一些有长期借款需求的美国公司将目光投向借贷成本更低的欧洲。2月份，强生(JNJ.US)在欧洲发行了30年期债 券，但在美国发行的债券期限仅为10年。5月份，辉瑞(PFE.US)在欧洲发行了20年期债券。 彭博指数显示，对于期限至少为10年期的债券，投资者获得的收益率为5.75%，比10年期债券的平均收益率高出一个 百分点以上。多年来，长期债券的收益率一直相对较高，但今年的需求更加旺盛。 本周早些时候，制药商礼来(LLY.US)仅发行了20亿美元的30年期和40年期债券，认购金额却高达147亿美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented allocation challenges faced by global investors due to high interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in stock market valuations and an inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries, while gold prices reach historical highs driven by safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - The stock market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with the technology sector remaining resilient due to AI computing demand, as evidenced by an 18.7% year-to-date increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, while traditional consumer sectors are pressured by declining household savings rates [1] - Active management funds have achieved an average excess return of 4.2 percentage points, underscoring the value of professional investment in a differentiated market [1] - Smart investment advisory systems utilizing machine learning algorithms have identified multiple small and mid-cap stocks with potential for excess returns [1] Group 3 - The fixed income market is undergoing a reconfiguration of pricing mechanisms, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuating around 4.5% and credit spreads widening by 37 basis points compared to historical averages [2] - Institutional investors are employing duration strategies and credit downgrades to capture alpha returns, with investment-grade corporate bonds beginning to show allocation value [2] - The green bond market has surpassed $2.3 trillion in size, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 19%, providing new options for ESG investors [2] Group 4 - Gold's monetary attributes are revitalized in the digital currency era, with geopolitical risks and central bank purchases pushing gold prices above $2,500 per ounce [4] - The trading volume of digital gold certificates has increased by 240% year-on-year, merging physical gold with blockchain technology, enhancing liquidity to stock-levels with an average daily trading volume of $4.7 billion [4] - A dynamic balance of risk and return is necessary for cross-asset allocation, with the optimal current portfolio ratio being 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold, where gold's volatility contribution has decreased to 14% and its correlation coefficient with stocks has improved to 0.38 [4] - The application of smart rebalancing algorithms has effectively controlled the annualized portfolio volatility within 9.2% [4] Group 5 - The capital market is in a continuous evolution of efficiency versus risk, as evidenced by a record net outflow of 8.3 billion yuan from northbound funds under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, while gold ETFs have seen 21 consecutive weeks of net subscriptions [4] - Data indicates that a three-year systematic investment strategy has achieved an annualized return of 8.7%, significantly outperforming single-asset allocation strategies [4]

新华财经北京8月22日电（王菁）债市周五（8月22日）震荡走弱，增值税调整后的长债新发定价略高， 一级市场弱势情绪午后传导至二级市场，国债期货收盘全线下跌，银行间现券收益率午后多数小幅上行 1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放1232亿元，短端资金利率延续回落。 机构认为，从金融数据显示"存款搬家"的信号来看，无论是从超额储蓄或存款到期的角度，预计或有5 万亿元以上规模从存款流出，投资于"固收+"等资管产品。本轮资金波动除缴税外，股市火热带动的资 产配置调整可能影响更大，在股市没有明显降温前，其牵动影响或仍存，还需央行公开市场灵活对冲。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间8月21日，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨4.19BPs报3.781%，3年期 美债收益率涨3.92BPs报3.736%，5年期美债收益率涨3.49BPs报3.841%，10年期美债收益率涨2.92BPs报 4.316%，30年期美债收益率涨2.14BPs报4.908%。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.12%报115.980，10年期主力合约跌0.18%报107.660，5年 期主力合约跌0.07%报105.3 ...