Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

距离6月18日陆家嘴论坛不到一个月，证监会主席吴清彼时提出的"加快推出科创债ETF"，已应声落地。 首批10只科创债ETF于7月2日获批，并火速进入发行期。这也是今年信用债ETF第二波创新产品。 10只科创债ETF分别跟踪3类标的指数。其中，鹏华等3家公司的科创债ETF，跟踪上证AAA科创债指数。另有6家跟踪中证AAA科创债指数，1家跟踪深证 AAA科创债指数。 科创债ETF，作为创新产品，恰好撬动了科技时代的"支点"。一方面，国家战略支持科技创新型企业，大力推进债券市场的"科技板"，这是政策层面自上 而下的推动力量。另一方面，低利率大环境下，投资者希望找到收益率更高的债券类产品，对中高等级信用债有配置需求。 科创债市场本身，从2016年的试点，到2022年的扩容，再到今年的"5月新政"，已然是万亿规模市场。无论体量，交易活跃程度来看，酝酿ETF的"土 壤"已经成熟。 力度空前，科创债"5月新政" 科创债兴起，一方面受到政策的大力助推，另一方面，亦是时代变迁的缩影。 早些年，地产债、城投债是债券市场最热门的信用债品种。随着经济转型，科技相关行业崛起，如今科创债发行规模大幅跃升，或许将接过接力棒，成为 信用债最 ...

Group 1 - The funding environment turned loose after the quarter-end, with overnight and 7-day funding rates dropping to 1.3% and 1.4% respectively, indicating potential for further decline in short-term rates [1] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June showed a rebound, suggesting a stable economic foundation, while long-term rates may continue to fluctuate [1][10] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield showing slight fluctuations throughout the week, ultimately down by 0.5 basis points [2][5] Group 2 - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 513.2 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 28 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week is expected to see the issuance of 51 bonds totaling 268.79 billion yuan, with no government bonds planned for issuance [6] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose overall, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.35%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [7] Group 3 - The bond market is currently in a favorable window for long positions, but the potential for profit is limited, suggesting a focus on yield spread trading [13] - The current market dynamics indicate a shift, with increased activity in long-duration bonds reflecting strong investor sentiment [14] - The central bank's supportive stance on liquidity and the continued decline in money market rates are seen as key certainties for the market [14]

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued 15-year special local bonds with a scale of 155 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.97% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year bonds was 3.17 times, with an expected multiple of 1.96 [1] - Inner Mongolia also issued 20-year special local bonds for rail transit with a scale of 10 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.03% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year rail transit bonds was 10.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1]

7月7日消息，日本30年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至2.92%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of currency fluctuations, particularly the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, on the financial market and liquidity conditions in China. The overall trend indicates a loosening of monetary conditions driven by external factors rather than seasonal variations [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Liquidity** - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been guiding liquidity conditions, leading to a significant drop in overnight and 7-day repurchase rates, which are at record lows. This indicates a trend of decreasing funding costs [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Currency Appreciation** - The passive appreciation of the RMB is primarily influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and external economic policies, which have resulted in a more favorable liquidity environment in China [1][5][9]. 3. **Expectations for Future Interest Rates** - There is an expectation that short-term interest rates (DR001 and R007) will continue to decline, potentially reaching levels as low as 1.2. This trend is expected to benefit short-term financial instruments such as certificates of deposit and credit bonds [11][12]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - The current liquidity conditions are seen as a positive signal for the economy, with expectations of continued support for the bond market despite a lack of significant improvement in the underlying economic fundamentals [13][14]. 5. **External Factors and Market Dynamics** - The weakening of confidence in the US dollar due to recent US government policies has led to a shift in capital flows towards non-USD currencies, including the RMB. This shift is expected to further influence domestic liquidity and market conditions [8][17]. 6. **Potential for Future Rate Cuts** - If external economic conditions change, the PBOC may need to implement earlier and more substantial interest rate cuts to manage the appreciation of the RMB. Current market pricing does not fully reflect these potential rate cuts [3][16]. 7. **Investor Recommendations** - The period from July to September is anticipated to be favorable for interest rates, with expectations of significant returns across the yield curve. Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities in the upcoming issuance of long-term government bonds [18]. Other Important Insights - The PBOC's recent policy adjustments indicate a more proactive stance on managing exchange rates and liquidity, reflecting a shift in their approach to monetary policy [10]. - The market's optimistic outlook is supported by increased borrowing demand and the stability provided by major banks, despite temporary liquidity tightness observed at the end of the first half of the year [15].

固羽增收 - 7 月利率债走牛？20250706 摘要 2025 年下半年，外部局势趋于缓和，中国核心资产吸引力上升，政策支持持 续。新经济板块如新消费、文化出海等需求侧亮点正在形成。制度性开放重塑 全球贸易格局，但这些因素对经济影响相对常见。传统研究中的三个核心因素 ——出口、投资和消费，均面临一定压力。 出口方面，受贸易战影响，下滑确 定，但影响低于预期。抢出口效应在 6 月中旬已释放完毕，三季度增速将明显 下降。政策对冲效果有限，总体影响较小。 投资方面，三季度将依赖财政和金 融结合的新型政策性金融工具。这些工具设计旨在降低地方政府初期投入资金 体量，提高项目推进顺畅度，从而平滑经济数据。全年 GDP 增速达到 5%左右 难度不大，因此进一步增量刺激政策概率较小。 消费方面，今年补贴管理严格， 总体节奏慢于去年，但仍能显著对冲数据。耐用品消费领域仍有空间盘活，如 果现有资金不足，有可能出现类似去年四季度的增量刺激。然而，由于年初至 7 月债市仍将走牛，债基久期升至新高，短期有止盈压力，但中长期仍 需保持牛市思维。关注债基久期变化速率，超过或低于九十日均线 0.04 年时，短期可能出现回调或反弹。 量化模 ...

今年，继关税问题引发冲突不断，国际债券市场也烽烟四起。 中国持续减持美债，我国现在仅持有7500亿美元左右，相比巅峰期减少近一半。 到4月份，美债抛售情况越发严重，单月被美国之外的投资者净抛售500多亿美元。 为什么大家都选择抛售美债？与其负债情况有关。 目前中美日三国政府都在不断增加负债，三国负债与其去年GDP的占比为65%、138%和219%。 一般来说，占比超过60%以上，代表国家有较高的偿债风险，其国债就会面临持续被抛售的情况。 以上来看，中美日三国都有风险。 虽然三国债务创历史新高，但可能还远没有达到顶点，目前各国经济发展面临较大压力，政府需要更多资金来支持和刺激经济，否则就有衰退风险。 当负债远超GDP的60%，甚至100%、200%，这种前所未有的情况到底会如何演变？ 先说美国。 美国整个国家都喜欢贷款消费，当政府钱不够用就会发行国债，债务雪球也越滚越大。 截至5月末，美联邦负债高达36.2万亿美元，而地方的负债也达到了约4万亿美元，总负债已经超过了40万亿美元。 | | (Millions of dollars) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Amou ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rare phenomenon of "crowded" trading in a volatile market, where trading activity has increased despite stable interest rates and unclear market direction [3][8] - The micro trading sentiment index has risen from 36% to 58% over the past 20 trading days, indicating a significant increase in trading enthusiasm [8][27] - The report questions whether the rising trading heat necessarily indicates valuation imbalance, suggesting that high trading activity does not inherently mean that pricing is unreasonable [5][16] Trading Characteristics - Recent market trading behavior shows a clear warming trend, particularly in two dimensions: consistent duration extension and consistent yield spread compression [4][14] - The market is exhibiting a unified behavior of extending duration, with fund durations rising to high levels and a decrease in the divergence of holding durations [4][14] - There is a notable shift of funds towards less active bonds, leading to a significant increase in their trading volume, reflecting a strong trading willingness despite limited downward space for interest rates [4][14] Valuation Assessment - The report argues that high trading heat does not equate to pricing imbalance, emphasizing that the rationality of interest rate pricing is based on macro fundamentals, liquidity, and policy expectations [5][16] - Current interest rates have not broken previous lows, indicating that the market retains a degree of caution regarding fundamental directions and policy expectations [5][16] - The report's constructed micro trading indicators show significant differences in crowdedness metrics, with trading heat indicators at 63% and pricing matching indicators at only 26%, suggesting that the risk of significant pricing imbalance is manageable [17][24] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Marginal improvements in liquidity provide a foundation for interest rate compression, with a notable decline in funding costs since June [6][19] - The report indicates that the current round of yield spread convergence is not solely due to trading "involution," but is supported by an improved funding environment [6][19] - The relationship between funding prices and economic marginal trends has been highlighted, with a successful signal identification model showing a high success rate in predicting funding rate directions based on PMI data [20][21] Historical Context - The report draws parallels to the 2022 interest rate fluctuation phase, where high trading heat coexisted with reasonable pricing, suggesting that current trading characteristics may not trigger systemic adjustments [27][28]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "资产荒"卷土重来 [Table_Summary] ► 7 月债市，直接进入票息行情 7 月债市行情紧跟保险、理财和银行的增量资金，或由其推动债市走 出结构性行情。同时三类机构的资金流入节奏或有错期，银行负债或随跨 季结束而迅速改善；理财规模扩容可能集中在上半月，债券购买力或在月 中显现；保险预定利率研究值公布时点大概率在 21 日前后，"降成本"预 期或在中下旬发酵。因此，理论上债市慢牛行情的发展或有层次，短利率 先行，短信用跟进，中长端补涨。 但在实际情形中，虽然月初资金面极为宽松，银行边际负债成本（如 存单等）也在快速下行，然而短久期利率债行情暂未启动。在这一背景 下，市场直接进入票息行情，以基金为代表交易盘开始在信用债、二永债 板块积极挖掘剩余利差，同时在 7-10 年政金债、10 年以上国债等板块寻 找利差机会。 ► "资产荒"，卷土重来 一览当前的市场定价情况，国债 10 年-1 年期限利差约为 30bp，虽然 较此前相对极端的 20bp 有所扩张，但历史分位数并不算高，若将观察周 ...