Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team at the Research Center - Date: March 26, 2026 [2] 1. Price Data Daily Prices and Changes - **WTI**: Ranged from $96.14 on March 19 to $90.32 on March 25, with a change of -$2.03 [3] - **BRENT**: Ranged from $108.65 on March 19 to $102.22 on March 25, with a change of -$2.27 [3] - **DUBAI**: Ranged from $137.82 on March 19 to $131.97 on March 23, with no data on March 24 - 25 [3] - **SC**: Ranged from 814.90 on March 19 to 723.90 on March 25, with a change of -15.20 [3] - **OMAN**: Ranged from 157.66 on March 19 to 107.80 on March 25, with a change of -24.03 [3] - **Japanese Naphtha**: Ranged from $1160.50 on March 19 to $997.75 on March 25, with a change of -$90.75 [3] - **Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST**: Ranged from $50.15 on March 19 to $26.0 on March 25, with a change of -$12.3 [3] Spreads and Other Data - **BRENT 1 - 2 Month Spread**: Changed from $4.87 on March 19 to $4.96 on March 25, with a change of $0.70 [3] - **WTI - BRENT**: Changed from -$12.51 on March 19 to -$11.90 on March 25, with a change of $0.24 [3] - **SC - BRENT**: Changed from 9.49 on March 19 to 2.83 on March 25, with a change of 0.12 [3] - **Domestic Gasoline - BRENT**: Changed from 3407 on March 19 to 4332 on March 25, with a change of 133 [3] 2. News Diplomatic News - According to Arab mediators cited by the Wall Street Journal, Iran's private stance in cease - fire discussions is less rigid than its public statements. However, the success of diplomatic efforts remains low due to high demands from both Iran and the US. Iran is still listening during the mediators' attempt to draft a compromise for future meetings, and an Iranian diplomat said Iran has not closed the door to indirect negotiations but is highly skeptical of the US's interest [3] Production News - Due to the ongoing Iran war, Iraq's oil production has significantly declined. The oil production in southern Iraq's major oil fields has dropped by about 80% to around 800,000 barrels per day. Earlier this month, it had already dropped by about 70% to around 1.3 million barrels per day. Before the war, the daily production was about 4.3 million barrels per day. Iraq has also asked BP and Eni to cut production at their respective fields [3][4] - Iran has put forward five conditions for a cease - fire, including a complete stop to aggression and assassination, ensuring the war will not be imposed on Iran again, war reparations, ending the war on all fronts and by all resistance organizations, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz [4] 3. EIA Reports - On the week of March 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [11] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 11,000 barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day [11] - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [11] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [11] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels [11] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.464 million barrels per day, a decrease of 730,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [11] 4. Weekly View - This week, oil prices continued to rise. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remained low, with only 3 oil tankers passing through on March 18 and no crude oil tankers. The average daily tanker traffic volume in the past week was less than 2. Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours, and Iran responded that it would attack energy and oil facilities in the Middle East if its power plants were targeted, which could lead to long - term oil price increases [4] - The premium of Oman crude oil rose to $60 per barrel. Affected by the escalation of the Middle East situation, the spread between Brent and WTI reached the highest level in nearly a decade [4] - On March 20, the US approved a 30 - day authorization to conditionally relax sanctions on Iranian oil products [4] - Recently, the global floating storage has significantly reduced inventory, with an average reduction of 1.8 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs estimates that there are about 131 million barrels of Russian oil and 105 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea, which can offset the supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. In the case of a factual interruption in the strait, the price in the compliant market still faces upward pressure. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will have constructive dialogue with Iran on the strait's navigation and geopolitical situation next week [4]

Market Reactions to Oil Prices - The inverse correlation between Brent oil prices and the S&P 500 index has continued, with high oil prices persisting during the ongoing conflict [2] - Traders are betting on a potential asymmetry in oil prices, anticipating a gradual increase if the conflict continues, but a swift decline if a resolution occurs [3] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The market appears to be less concerned with the details of ongoing talks regarding de-escalation, indicating a level of optimism that the situation may not be as prolonged as previously feared [4][5] - The current geopolitical situation is unique due to the strategic importance of the Strait, which limits alternative options for oil supply [10] Market Dynamics and Trading Behavior - Short-term traders are influencing market movements, with day-to-day fluctuations driven by positioning rather than fundamental changes [7][8] - The market has shown resilience following social media posts from influential figures, indicating a psychological aspect to trading behavior [9] Economic Implications - The ongoing military crisis has significant implications for oil production and storage, affecting the broader economy, including food costs due to fertilizer supply issues [11][12] - The potential for dislocations in the market could extend beyond the immediate inverse relationship with Brent oil if a resolution is not reached [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran situation, on global markets, highlighting the interplay between high oil prices, inflation expectations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [1][5][17]. Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the 13th consecutive month of increased liquidity support to stabilize the market [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with expectations of only one rate cut this year, indicating a prolonged high-rate environment [1]. - Oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with Goldman Sachs and others raising short-term oil price forecasts due to supply risks [1]. - Gold prices are driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, closing above $4,500 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights Shipping - The EC index fell by 6.04%, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [2]. - Container shipping rates have decreased, with significant price adjustments noted for large containers, indicating pressure on shipping rates due to reduced export demand [2][33]. Copper - Copper prices rose by 0.69%, supported by tight supply conditions, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [24]. - The overall copper production remains high despite a slight month-on-month decline, with attention needed on downstream demand and smelting output [24]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed a rebound, with significant trading volumes, although the market remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [3][27]. - The financing balance decreased, indicating a more cautious approach from investors during the earnings disclosure period [3][27]. Group 3: Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with recent geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite and liquidity conditions [23]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [23]. Energy - Oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical developments, with the U.S. delaying military actions against Iran, which has implications for energy prices [18]. - The International Energy Agency noted that the current Middle East crisis could have a more severe impact on energy prices than past oil crises [18]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian soybean harvest rates are lagging behind historical averages, but overall production is expected to be high, impacting global soybean prices [28]. - The palm oil market is influenced by production increases in Southeast Asia, although potential export restrictions from Indonesia could support prices [29].

总台记者当地时间26日获悉，日本政府今日起开始释放国家石油储备。据日本经济产业省介绍，国家石油储备 的释放将于当地时间26日上午11时从位于爱媛县今治市的"菊间国家石油储备基地"开始实施。 责编：罗晓霞 校对：刘星莹 百万用户都在看 美军轰炸机，发出紧急信号！伊朗警告以色列，俄罗斯发声！ 盘中，集体大涨！伊朗局势，再生变数！金价狂飙背后，有何逻辑？ 4倍大牛股，突传利好！超级赛道，再迎重磅催化！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 日本经济产业省表示，政府计划于3月份内，在包括该基地在内的全国9处基地陆续启动石油储备释放，到4月 份再新增2处，最终在日本11处基地依次展开。预计释放总量约为850万千升，相当于日本国内约一个月的石油 消费量。 据悉，此次释放的国家石油储备，将由日本政府通过随意合同方式，以约5400亿日元的价格出售给四大石油批 发企业，由各公司加工成汽油等成品油后投放市场。包括民间储备和国家储备在内，此次石油释放规模将达到 历史最大水平。 此外，日本政府还计划与产油国合作，在日本国内储存的"产油国共同储备"也将于3月内启动释放，规模相当 于约5天用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Iran's military posture and its implications for global oil markets, highlighting the potential for conflict in key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Mandeb Strait [1][3][5]. Group 1: Iran's Military Actions and Statements - Iran may open a new front in the Mandeb Strait if there are ground or naval actions against its territories [1][3]. - The Iranian military has increased defensive measures at its oil export hub, Khark Island, deploying more anti-aircraft units and landmines to deter potential U.S. military actions [3]. - Iran's military spokesperson stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to previous conditions, asserting that any hostile forces will not have the right to passage [5]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Markets - The tensions have led to significant volatility in oil markets, with WTI crude oil prices experiencing fluctuations, including a drop of over 6% before recovering to around $91.19 per barrel [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil transport, with over 25% of the world's maritime oil trade passing through it, and an estimated daily transport of 20 million barrels expected in 2024 [6]. - Since the outbreak of conflict, the number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait has decreased by 95% compared to pre-conflict levels, indicating severe disruptions in energy transport [6]. Group 3: Regional and Global Reactions - The Iranian parliament speaker warned of retaliatory actions against countries supporting hostile operations against Iran, indicating a broader regional conflict could ensue [3]. - The Houthis in Yemen have expressed intentions to support Iran by potentially blocking the Mandeb Strait, further complicating the regional security landscape [4]. - The UN Secretary-General has highlighted the risks of escalating conflict in the Middle East, emphasizing the need to respect navigation rights in critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz [6].

Group 1: Energy Sector - The energy market is expected to experience varying impacts based on different scenarios, with oil prices potentially averaging around $80 per barrel in a mild scenario, and rising to $120 in a baseline scenario, leading to significant inflationary pressures [1][2][4] - Energy companies are projected to see their earnings per share (EPS) and valuations increase as the market adjusts to higher long-term oil price expectations, which are currently reflected below $80 per barrel [3][36] - In extreme scenarios where oil prices soar to $140-160 per barrel, the energy sector may face severe challenges, including economic recession and increased inflation, necessitating a shift towards defensive sectors [2][3][29] Group 2: Mining Sector - In a mild scenario, the mining sector may benefit moderately as the market returns to fundamental pricing, with aluminum and copper expected to see positive price movements due to improved demand expectations [27] - In a baseline scenario, rising costs from energy and raw materials will reshape pricing logic for aluminum and nickel, while gold may rise due to inflationary pressures [28] - In extreme scenarios, the mining sector could face significant downturns, with only gold likely to serve as a safe haven asset amidst a broader economic recession [29] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is considered a defensive sector, benefiting from a strong dollar and lower sensitivity to oil prices and inflation, making it a diversified investment option during uncertain times [3] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience limited impact from rising oil prices, as the cost of raw materials and electricity constitutes a small portion of overall chip production costs [40] - However, if the geopolitical situation escalates, there may be indirect effects on demand due to macroeconomic downturns, potentially leading to revenue growth pressures [42] Group 5: Agricultural Sector - Agricultural products may face rising costs due to increased fertilizer prices linked to energy costs, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans if fertilizer prices rise significantly [37] - The geopolitical situation may also enhance expectations for biofuel alternatives, although the overall supply-demand balance for major crops remains relatively stable [38] Group 6: Chemical Sector - The chemical industry is experiencing structural disruptions due to rising energy prices and supply chain issues, with significant impacts on production costs and pricing across the entire value chain [31][34] - Regional disparities are evident, with Asia facing more direct risks due to high dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas, while North America may benefit from higher self-sufficiency [32] Group 7: Industrial Sector - The industrial sector is under pressure from rising costs, but the overall impact is manageable, with a focus on demand-side influences that could affect profitability [50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran is extremely low due to almost zero trust, and Iran believes the US request for negotiation is a deception [1][2] - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the "ultimate battle" in the Middle East, and losing it could lead to the decline of empires and shake the US dollar's foundation [2][3] - The release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves by IEA cannot cover the supply gap caused by the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, and high - oil prices may impact the global economy [2][3] - The market is at a dangerous critical point. If the geopolitical situation doesn't improve in two weeks, the stock market may experience a crash - like decline [2] - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is on a downward trend due to the US's wrong policies [3] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - The US President claims to be in negotiations with Iran for a cease - fire and a 15 - point agreement, but Iran denies and refuses to accept the cease - fire and negotiation [1] - Retail investors had their first net sell - off on Monday since November 2023, selling about $20.6 million in stocks [1] - Foreign official accounts' US Treasury holdings at the New York Fed dropped by $75 billion in four weeks, with a net sell - off of about $60 billion [1] - The auction of $69 billion in two - year US Treasury bonds was cold, reflecting market concerns about high inflation and interest - rate hikes [1] - The Nasdaq futures have broken through support levels, and the AI - related situation and Middle East tensions may trigger a new round of large - scale selling [3] - The decline in US stocks may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3]

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a pullback, with S&P 500 futures down 0.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures nearly 1% lower, reflecting uncertainty regarding US-Iran relations and the Middle East conflict [1][2] Oil Market Impact - Brent crude futures rose above $107, while West Texas Intermediate crude surpassed $94, driven by mixed signals regarding the potential for a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict [2] Economic Concerns - Growing fears of a US recession are emerging as the oil price rally could lead to higher costs for consumers, with attention on weekly initial jobless claims as markets evaluate the Federal Reserve's response to rising oil prices [3]

Industry Overview - As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.95 billion kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Solar power capacity reached 1.23 billion kilowatts, up 33.2%, while wind power capacity reached 650 million kilowatts, increasing by 22.8% [2] Domestic News - The National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau announced a list of 19 coal mines that have achieved the first-level standard of safety production standardization management system, which will be publicly disclosed for social supervision [3] Technological Advancements - A significant breakthrough in the field of new thin-film photovoltaics has been achieved, with the photoelectric conversion efficiency of copper-zinc-tin-sulfur-selenium batteries certified at 16.6%, marking the 10th world record in this field [5] - The first dual-power intelligent tamping machine for railway tunnels in the country has been launched, featuring a dual-power system that allows seamless switching based on operational scenarios [6] - The first "all-round" flash welding rail machine in the country has been officially put into use, integrating new energy power and all-scenario operations [6] Corporate News - Huaneng International Power Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 14.41 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.17%. The company's revenue was 229.288 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.62% [8] - The first successful ignition of the 630℃ national power demonstration project boiler at Datang Yuncheng marks the start of the dynamic trial operation phase [8]

Doug Burgum, US secretary of the interior, at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, US, on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.HOUSTON — Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Wednesday that the U.S. recently brought back $100 million of gold from Venezuela. Burgum visited Venezuela with oil and mining executives earlier this month to meet with interim President Delcy Rodriguez. "There hadn't been a shipment of precious metals between Venezuela and America in over 20 years," Burgum told energy executi ...