. 美国7月CPI年率持平于2.7%强化9月降息预期（概率超93%）支撑金价，但核心CPI升至3.1%凸显通胀粘性潜在压制；美国债务总额首破37万亿美元加剧债务风险，叠加 特朗普施压美联储降息提振黄金货币属性；中美关税休战延期90天缓和避险情绪，而俄美领导人会晤临近或扰动地缘风险溢价；此前关税政策乌龙引发COMEX溢价波 动，国内现货需求减弱迹象显现，短期金价震荡偏强但需警惕情绪退潮风险。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]

Group 1: Robotics Industry - Hangzhou Municipal Justice Bureau has released a draft regulation to promote the development of embodied intelligent robotics, focusing on enhancing computing resource efficiency and reducing costs [1] - The core technology areas include the "brain" (large models), "small brain" (motion control systems), and "body" (core components and complete robots) [1] - Huaxi Securities predicts that the humanoid robot market is on the verge of commercialization, with a potential global market size exceeding $150 billion by 2035 [1] Group 2: DDR4 Market - TrendForce reports that the DDR4 market will face continuous supply shortages and price increases by the second half of 2025, driven by rigid server orders impacting the PC and end-user markets [2] - The contract price for Consumer DDR4 surged over 60-85% in July, leading to a significant upward revision for Q3 contract prices to an increase of 85-90% [2] - The LPDDR4X contract price also saw a substantial increase, with a projected rise of 38-43% in Q3 due to supply chain disruptions and increased demand [2] Group 3: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - On August 11, innovative pharmaceutical stocks saw a surge, with notable increases in companies like Zhendong Pharmaceutical and Seer Medical [3][4] - Baichuan Intelligent released an open-source medical model, Baichuan-M2, which significantly reduces deployment costs for medical applications [3] - Six innovative drugs entered the public notice period for breakthrough therapy, including ADC drugs developed by various companies [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate futures saw all contracts hit the limit up on August 11, with significant stock price increases for lithium mining companies [4][5] - The suspension of mining operations at Ningde Times' project due to expired permits may create a supply gap of several thousand tons per month, impacting the lithium carbonate market [5] - Analysts suggest that this supply disruption, combined with seasonal inventory replenishment, could lead to a rebound in lithium prices [5] Group 5: Programmable Gene Editing - A new programmable chromosome-level DNA editing technology has been developed, allowing for precise manipulation of large DNA segments in plants and animals [6] - This breakthrough could open new pathways for crop trait improvement and treatment of genetic diseases caused by chromosomal abnormalities [6] Group 6: Tungsten Market - Tungsten prices remain strong, with black tungsten concentrate prices reported at 198,000 yuan per ton, a 38.5% increase since the beginning of the year [7] - The market is characterized by a "mining price support" dynamic, with upstream resource constraints and rising overseas prices contributing to price stability [7] - Demand from the new energy and military sectors is expected to sustain high tungsten prices in the short term [7]

8月11日，《每日经济新闻》记者从宁德时代内部人士处了解到，公司旗下宜春时代新能源矿业有限公 司的宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝矿区（以下简称枧下窝矿区）陶瓷土（含锂）已暂停开采作业，但对 企业没有影响。根据有关法律要求，宁德时代正在按照相关规定办理采矿证延续申请。 每经编辑 贾运可 据宁德时代方面此前披露的信息，江西宜春枧下窝矿区3300万吨含锂瓷土选矿项目分三期建设，其中一 期1000万吨年选原矿产能于2023年建成。中信期货分析师杨飞表示，枧下窝矿区及配套冶炼厂的碳酸锂 供应量约为1万吨/月，约占国内总产量的12.5%。三季度碳酸锂供需紧平衡。在此背景下，该矿区停 产，或带来单月数千吨的供应缺口。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示，宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端停产将直接影响锂矿供 给，国内锂资源供应边际将进一步收紧，进而对锂盐供给量形成一定压制。据测算，此次停产预计影响 国内碳酸锂月产量约6000吨，占国内月产量的约8.5%。 此次宁德时代枧下窝矿区停产，被市场视为碳酸锂行业反内卷去产能的重要信号之一。 这一宜春地区产能最大的锂云母矿之一的停摆，迅速在资本市场掀起波澜，不仅引来了投资者的现场蹲 守见证 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The stock market showed a strong trend today, mainly driven by the lithium carbonate-related concepts and technology concepts. Affected by this structural market, the small-cap stocks showed obvious strength, while the upstream resource industries with previous high gains and the dividend industries represented by banks led the decline, making the performance of the large-cap index relatively flat, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed with a narrow range of fluctuations. From the sentiment perspective, the market was generally optimistic today, and the trading volume significantly expanded, rising again to around 1.8 trillion yuan. Moreover, funds shifted from the dividend industries, showing a certain offensive momentum. However, from the market situation, the bulls still encountered some resistance when surging upwards, and the upward amplitude of the central level was not large. It is analyzed that this is mainly due to the lack of strong incremental positive factors in the short term. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate and wait for the release of important information within the week [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index rose with increasing volume today, and the small-cap stocks showed a stronger trend. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 116.746 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume, and the overall sentiment was optimistic, but there was a large difference between large-cap and small-cap stocks [4]. Important Information - On the morning of August 11, CATL officially responded on the interactive platform that after the mining license for its Yichun project expired on August 9, it has indeed suspended mining operations [5]. - On August 10, US Eastern Time, according to the official website of the US Department of Defense, the Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense announced the issuance of its first direct loan to strengthen the US industrial base and protect the critical mineral supply chain. As part of a broader agreement reached between the Department of Defense and MP Materials, the owner and operator of US rare earth mines, in July 2025, the Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense provided a loan of $150 million (approximately 1.1 billion yuan) [5]. - Recently, seven departments including the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - Style Industrialization" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), proposing to build a financial system that is compatible with the promotion of new - style industrialization and accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse and a manufacturing powerhouse [5]. Strategy Recommendation Sell cash - secured put options [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |主力日内涨跌幅（%）| 0.43 | 0.01 | 1.07 | 1.61 | |成交量（万手）| 10.475 | 4.9078 | 9.3503 | 21.3349 | |成交量环比（万手）| 2.9586 | 0.962 | 2.3858 | 5.5757 | |持仓量（万手）| 26.4743 | 9.6586 | 22.3884 | 35.9739 | |持仓量环比（万手）| 1.4212 | 0.68 | 0.9202 | 2.5544 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | |上证涨跌幅（%）| 0.34 | |深证涨跌幅（%）| 1.46 | |个股涨跌数比| 4.03 | |两市成交额（亿元）| 18269.73 | |成交额环比（亿元）| 1167.46 | [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillating [8][9] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillating [10] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bullish [87] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding due to continuous resumption of production in factories in the northwest and southwest regions, while downstream polysilicon and silicone production has increased. The resumption of supply will impact the supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - For polysilicon, the national weekly production has increased, downstream silicon wafer production is on the rise, but market sentiment has cooled. The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the mine - end production halt has been confirmed, and if there is rectification and resumption after compliance, considering the large downstream inventory and supplementary supply from surrounding mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Market sentiment may trigger downstream stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The current values, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US Dollar Index, exchange rate, Shanghai and London copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the US Dollar Index is 98.267, with a daily increase of 0.18%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 9.42%. Industrial silicon is priced at 8710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%, a weekly increase of 2.47%, and an annual decrease of 20.71% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 8.35 tons, a 6.16% increase from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 270, an increase of 8 from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan has all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream polysilicon and silicone weekly production has increased. Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week, and silicone DMC weekly production is 5.12 tons, a 7.11% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.16 tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week; the industry inventory is 43.99 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.17 tons, a 0.52% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9100 yuan, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 120 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In major production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 567, 86, and 187 yuan respectively, with changes of - 25, + 52, and + 37 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the expansion of supply and hedging pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Production**: The national weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 1.09, 0.45, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with a 1.02% increase in Inner Mongolia and no change in the other three regions [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.58GW, a 6.24% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.78GW, a 1.93% decrease from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.34 tons, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 10860 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41323 yuan, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 3878 yuan, an increase of 461 yuan from the previous week [10]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national high - yield is 1.96 tons, a 13.25% increase from the previous week. Lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes has all increased, with weekly productions of 11182, 4410, and 2442 tons respectively, and increases of 5.25%, 35.07%, and 20.18% from the previous week [87]. - **Import**: In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.7 tons, a 16.31% decrease from the previous month and a 9.63% decrease from the previous year. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 42.76 tons, a 17.25% decrease from the previous month and an 18.15% decrease from the previous year [87]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of iron - phosphate - based materials decreased by 10.87% to 6.17 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.99% to 9.46 tons. The weekly production of ternary - based materials increased by 8.66% to 1.75 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.36% to 1.66 tons. In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 226.77 million vehicles, a 0.14% decrease from the previous month, and the sales volume was 132.92 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase from the previous month [87]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.24 tons, a 0.49% increase from the previous week. The lithium - salt factory inventory decreased by 1.85% to 5.10 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1.84% to 9.14 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 239.57% to 1.88 tons [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased lepidolite is 75753 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 7557 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased spodumene is 68214 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is 1863 yuan/ton, a 212 - yuan decrease from the previous week [87]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the mine - end production halt and potential downstream stocking [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and the steel price is fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi has been implemented, and the price is running strongly [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 74,864, a decrease of 21,747 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 86,671, an increase of 1,172 from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,150, down 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 919, unchanged from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, up 50 from T - 1 [4]. b. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 tons of metal [6][7]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [7]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 76,640, up 4,720 from T - 1; the trading volume was 145,134, a decrease of 64,511 from T - 1; the open interest was 149,489, a decrease of 11,062 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 76,960, up 4,660 from T - 1; the trading volume was 895,609, an increase of 128,940 from T - 1; the open interest was 320,706, an increase of 30,874 from T - 1 [12]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900, up 800 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800, up 800 from T - 1. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777, up 20 from T - 1 [12]. b. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day [13]. - CATL's Jiaxiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight and has no short - term resumption plan [13]. - The Australian government will inject 50 million Australian dollars (about 32.5 million US dollars) into Liontown Resources to accelerate its underground mining transformation [14]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the People's Bank of China's consecutive 9 - month increase in gold reserves are the core supporting factors. The higher - than - expected number of initial jobless claims in the US strengthens the easing expectation, but the news of a meeting between Russian and US leaders eases geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment. Gold prices maintain a high - level volatile pattern under the influence of multiple factors [3]. - **Copper**: Copper prices have been mainly oscillating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. The spot market and inventory still have potential changes. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, but investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [15]. - **Aluminum**: Macro - level drivers for aluminum have temporarily slowed. In the short term, domestic demand has entered the off - season, downstream aluminum processing has declined, and social inventory has accumulated, but the absolute inventory remains low, supporting prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short term due to high production capacity and rising inventory. The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy are good, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [36]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to oversupplied, and processing fees are expected to rise this month. The ore supply is abundant. Inventory has been accumulating, but LME zinc inventory provides some support. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate with limited downside space in the short term [60]. - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore supply and domestic arrivals are high, and there is an expectation of price loosening. Nickel iron prices have strongly corrected, and stainless steel has reached the 13,000 - yuan mark, but downstream demand is weak. Sulfuric acid nickel has a tight supply in the market. Attention should be paid to the US dollar index [73]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose slightly on Thursday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. Delays may lead to a slight upward movement in tin prices, while the impact of weak demand has not fully manifested [87]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances persist, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range, strong - oscillating state. Attention should be paid to market changes and position risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Macro - level sentiment has faded. In the short term, the industry is expected to enter an oscillating state. In the long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon is limited, and the polysilicon market remains loose. Attention should be paid to industrial policies [115]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio are presented. Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver, and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are also shown [4][12][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (including the main contract, consecutive contracts) and LME copper are provided. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized [15][16]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper in different domestic spot markets are given, as well as import profit and loss, processing fees, and the difference between refined and scrap copper [22][27][31]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper are presented [32][34]. Aluminum - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Spot aluminum prices in different regions, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [37][46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are presented [54]. Zinc - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided. Spot zinc prices, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [61][67]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are presented [70]. Nickel - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Spot nickel prices, production costs, and downstream product prices are also shown [74][78]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts are presented [74]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Spot tin prices and import profit and loss are also shown [88][94]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are presented [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Spot lithium prices, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and social inventory are presented [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures and spot prices in different regions are provided. Price differences and basis are also shown [115][116]. - **Polysilicon and Related Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products are presented, as well as the inventory and production capacity of related products [122][133].