Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end, so the driving force for coal price increase is not strong. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally declined, with coal and coke leading the decline, and the night session continued to be weak. In the spot market, the price of domestic medium and low sulfur coking coal increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton last week and remained weakly stable this week. The price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton last week, while the forward price of Australian coal increased by 18 US dollars/ton. The increase of coke price is still under game [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: This month, coal mines have increased production to cope with the output contraction caused by the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the seasonal pattern of previous years. It is expected that private coal mines will gradually stop production next week. Last week, the output of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to slightly increasing. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of daily average pig iron output has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 0.09 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.65 million tons compared with the same period last year. The procurement of raw materials by downstream coking and steel enterprises is still slow, and the available days of in-plant raw material inventory are generally lower than the same period of previous years. The auction failure rate in the market has increased significantly this week [3]

国内焦煤供给下降，供需健康反转蓄势待发。供给端，焦煤产量下滑，进口难增，企业利润下滑，资本 开支、安全投入或不足;需求端，钢铁、焦炭价差支撑出口，春节后进入3月旺季，需求确定性向上，当 前供需基本面健康;库存上，焦煤库存处于同期低位，中间环节库存低。 全球：预计2025-2030年粗钢产量CAGR为0.9%，焦煤需求平稳提升。印度：预计2025-2030年粗钢产量 CAGR为6.3%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为5.5%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为6.3%。东盟：预计2025-2030年粗钢 产量CAGR为8.8%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为10.7%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为11.5%。中东：预计2025-2030 年粗钢产量CAGR为4%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为4%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为14.8%。非洲：预计2025- 2030年粗钢产量CAGR为2.3%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为2.3%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为0.7%。 投资要点 全球焦煤供弱需强，产能刚性支撑价格弹性。供给端，重点产煤国难有增量，供给整体下滑;需求端， 全球钢铁需求反弹，增量来自发展中国家的长流程炼钢，焦煤是必要原料，海外国家吨钢耗煤量高于中 国，钢 ...

资讯日报：阿里巴巴发布最新人工智能推理模型 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 ⚫ 周一（1月26日），美股三大指数高开高收，集体上涨。受 地缘政治与财政风险攀升影响，避险情绪推动贵金属价格显 2026 年 1 月 27 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常跌 | 間微跌 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 湖铁 | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 26.766 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 4.43 | | 恒生科技 | 5,726 | (1.24) | (1.24) | 3.81 | | 恒生国企 | 9.147 | (0.15) | (0.15) | 2.62 | | ┣证指数 | 4.133 | (0.09) | (0.09) | 4.13 | | 日经225 | 53.847 | (1.79) | (1.79) | 5.06 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4.891 | (0.62) | (0.62) | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6,950 | 0.50 ...

无烟煤方面，市场价格延续上行趋势。山西省内大型煤企末煤长协车板价格普遍上调30元;晋城地区地 方煤企喷吹煤长协车板价格上调40元等。供应方面，无烟煤矿区生产稳定，原煤产量平稳释放，坑口库 存小幅减少。下游需求端集中利好，尿素价格涨势延续;在气候转冷预期下，民用需求阶段性释放，带 动无烟块煤价格小幅上涨;钢厂节前备煤需求陆续释放，对原料煤采购较为积极，贸易商及洗煤厂等中 间环节活跃度提升，推动冶金用末煤市场偏强运行。 动力煤方面，主产地多数煤矿生产平稳，供应相对宽松。随着港口氛围转弱，下游及贸易商到矿拉运节 奏放缓，叠加大集团外购价下调等因素，业内观望情绪升温，报价出现小幅回调。 中化新网讯 近日，中国太原煤炭交易中心有限公司发布2026年第二期中国太原煤炭价格指数。数据显 示，山西煤炭市场呈现差异化运行态势：炼焦煤市场弱势扭转，产地煤价大幅上涨;无烟煤市场氛围转 好，产地煤价以涨为主;动力煤市场观望情绪升温，价格稳中小幅涨跌。 炼焦煤方面，产地煤价普遍上涨。山西省长治地区主要煤企率先上调瘦煤、贫瘦煤长协车板价格，调整 幅度为20～40元(吨价，下同);坑口销售端涨幅更为突出，吕梁、临汾地区主焦煤市场价格上涨1 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a recent adjustment in the A-share market, with major indices showing signs of stabilization and potential for upward movement if trading volumes increase [2][7][9] - Focus on structural opportunities is emphasized, particularly in blue-chip stocks and high-growth sectors, while caution is advised regarding stocks with uncertain earnings [2][8] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with sectors such as precious metals, semiconductors, and insurance showing gains [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is described as average, with a total trading volume of 28,950 billion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,139.90 points, up 0.18% [4] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector has been highlighted for its strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 10.10% in 2023, driven by digital transformation and geopolitical factors [5] - The precious metals sector continues to rise, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, increased geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks [6] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that if trading volumes continue to increase, there is a significant chance for the market to break through previous resistance levels [7][9] - It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in blue-chip stocks and high-growth sectors, while avoiding stocks with high uncertainty in earnings [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of January 27, the latest market financing balance is 27,059.04 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 17 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance, while 14 industries saw a decrease [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The communication industry had the highest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.11 billion yuan to a total of 1,339.67 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Pharmaceutical and biological: increased by 0.44 billion yuan to 1,696.03 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 0.41 billion yuan to 1,494.54 billion yuan - Public utilities: increased by 0.29 billion yuan to 569.69 billion yuan [1]. - Conversely, the following industries experienced significant decreases in financing balance: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.70 billion yuan to 1,418.93 billion yuan - Automotive: decreased by 0.96 billion yuan to 1,242.31 billion yuan - National defense and military: decreased by 0.68 billion yuan to 1,040.47 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The coal industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.09%, totaling 149.82 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable percentage increases include: - Communication: 0.84% - Steel: 0.79% - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: 0.59% [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.19% - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.10% - Oil and petrochemicals: decreased by 0.89% [1].

【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 [太阳]1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 ➽#范围更广。上轮"去产能"聚焦于上游资源品（煤炭、钢铁为主）；本轮"反内卷"治理领域扩大至中、下游，既 包括传统上游产业，也涵盖汽车等中下游产业以及互联网平台、光伏、新能源等新兴产业领域，涉及企业面更 广。 ➽#更注重价。具体举措方面，上轮"去产能"更多采用对产量与产能的直接约束与治理，关于量的举措多于价格层 面的举措；本轮"反内卷 【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 [太阳]1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 ➽#加强价格监测与价格执法。各部委关于"反内卷"的工作部署中，多次提及强化价格监测与价格执法。比如，1 月22日，财政部发布《 查找图书 》，明确要求在政府采购评审中的多种情形应启动异常低价投标审查程序。 ➽#通过标准引导落后产能出清。除了出台行业标准与加强价格监测执法，本轮"反内卷"仍然保留了必要的产能出 清的措施，但更多通过提高行业标准引导而非强制性进行。 [太阳]3.本轮"反内卷"有哪些投资机会？ ➽#近期"反内卷"政策在部委协同、制度支持、落地节奏方面已经出现加 ...

➽#范围更广。 上轮"去产能"聚焦于上游资源品（煤炭、钢铁为主）；本轮"反内卷"治理领域扩大至中、下游，既包括传统上游产 业，也涵盖汽车等中下游产业以及互联网平台、光伏、新能源等新兴产业领域，涉及企业面更广。 ➽#更注重价。 具体举措方面，上轮"去产能" 【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 ➽#范围更广。 【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 目前来看，无论是煤炭等传统的能源和资源领域，还是在新能源汽车、光伏等新兴行业，部委层面对于"反内 卷"的工作推进更多是通过出台优化相应的行业规范与能效标准，引导产业提质增效。 ➽#加强价格监测与价格执法。 上轮"去产能"聚焦于上游资源品（煤炭、钢铁为主）；本轮"反内卷"治理领域扩大至中、下游，既包括传统上游产 业，也涵盖汽车等中下游产业以及互联网平台、光伏、新能源等新兴产业领域，涉及企业面更广。 ➽#更注重价。 具体举措方面，上轮"去产能"更多采用对产量与产能的直接约束与治理，关于量的举措多于价格层面的举措；本 轮"反内卷"更多通过对定价层面的指导与 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [1] Key Data Summary Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1483.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 57.00, a monthly increase of 33.00, and a yearly increase of 11.76% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1003.00, with a daily decrease of 37.00, a weekly decrease of 17.00, a monthly increase of 48.00, and a yearly increase of 8.43% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1400.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 60.00, and a yearly increase of 2.94% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1640.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 20.00, a monthly increase of 40.00, and a yearly increase of 17.14% [2] Inventory - The total inventory is 4099.62, with a weekly increase of 12.02, a monthly increase of 88.22, and a yearly decrease of 15.89% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 274.35, with a weekly increase of 1.98, a monthly decrease of 8.55, and a yearly decrease of 37.42% [2] - The port inventory is 298.90, with a weekly decrease of 0.90, a monthly increase of 12.73, and a yearly decrease of 35.20% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 802.20, with a weekly increase of 4.47, a monthly decrease of 2.79, and a yearly decrease of 3.06% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1132.85, with a weekly increase of 61.17, a monthly increase of 96.56, and a yearly decrease of 2.21% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.41, with a weekly decrease of 0.14, a monthly increase of 0.75, and a yearly decrease of 0.29% [2] - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.71, with a weekly increase of 0.33, a monthly increase of 0.19, and a yearly increase of 0.86% [2] - The 05 contract basis is 4.75, with a daily increase of 21.50, a weekly decrease of 10.00, a monthly increase of 46.06, and a yearly increase of 35.58 [2] - The 09 contract basis is -71.75, with a daily increase of 21.50, a weekly decrease of 12.00, a monthly increase of 43.56, and a yearly decrease of 0.34 [2] - The 01 contract basis is -244.25, with a daily increase of 16.00, a weekly decrease of 23.00, a monthly decrease of 287.94, and a yearly increase of 0.74 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -76.50, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a yearly decrease of 0.03 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is -172.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 11.00, a monthly decrease of 331.50, and a yearly increase of 4.56 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 249.00, with a daily increase of 5.50, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly increase of 334.00, and a yearly increase of 1.27 [2]