Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of the stock index is positive, but it may experience a phased adjustment. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. - In the RMB exchange rate market, investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on the progress of China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. - For the container shipping industry, the SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. - In the precious metals market, focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend of gold and silver may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. - For base metals, copper prices may decline slightly; aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; zinc is in a high - level shock; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a certain range; tin prices may decline slightly; lead is mainly in a shock state [8][10][12][13][15][21]. - In the energy and chemical industry, crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage; PX - PTA can be considered to expand the processing fee at low prices; for other energy and chemical products, pay attention to policy changes and market fundamentals [29][30][33]. - In the black metal market, the over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end; the contradiction in the iron ore market is accumulating; the coal - coke market may return to rationality; for silicon iron and silicon manganese, pay attention to risks [23][24][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the market game for live pigs has intensified [50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1679 at 16:30, down 132 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1680 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1419, down 34 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, and most trade agreements would be reached before August. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18% [2]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's independence is being challenged. Investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: On Friday, the stock index showed mixed trends, with the large - cap index falling and the small - and medium - cap index rising. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 573.69 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China's industrial enterprise profits in June decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role. The State Council executive meeting deployed measures for gradually promoting free pre - school education [3]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index may experience a phased adjustment, but the overall trend is positive. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: On Friday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) contracts fluctuated after a sharp decline at the opening. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The freight quotes of Maersk and ONE for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different changes [4]. - **Core Logic**: The SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market showed a reverse V - shaped trend. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased sharply, and there was a large inflow of funds into US gold and silver ETFs at the beginning of the week, but the price reversed on Wednesday [5]. - **Important Information**: The US - Japan and US - EU trade agreements were close to being reached, and the domestic anti - involution policy led to a general rise in commodities and the stock market [5]. - **Core Logic**: Focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory showed different trends in different markets [8]. - **Important Information**: Teck Resources lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine due to tailings storage problems [8]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a slight increase, and the trading volume and positions changed. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the market sentiment, and the exchange issued a position limit notice [9][10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, considering the influence of macro events and fundamentals [10]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and the trading volume and positions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The "anti - involution" sentiment affected the market [12]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc is in a high - level shock. The supply may gradually shift from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. Appropriate short - selling at high prices is recommended [12]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong trend during the week but回调 on Friday night. The price of stainless steel also showed an upward trend during the week [13]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy and relevant news affected the market, and the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose [14]. - **Core Logic**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan and [12,500 - 13,100] yuan respectively [15]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory was stable [15]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the price [15]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [16]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose slightly, and the trading volume and positions increased [21]. - **Important Information**: The production of a refinery in Anhui recovered, and a large - scale recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia was expected to produce lead next week [21]. - **Core Logic**: Lead is mainly in a shock state, affected by the supply - demand relationship and market sentiment [22]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Speculative position reduction and inventory increase suppressed oil prices, and the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures fell [29]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced that the US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the Houthi armed forces upgraded the maritime blockade [29]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the results of important macro meetings this week [30]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: PX - PTA was generally strong under the influence of commodity sentiment and polyester demand improvement [30]. - **Important Information**: PX Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance, and there were rumors of PTA plant maintenance in August [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA industry chain has limited fundamental drivers. Consider expanding the processing fee at low prices [32]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Market Review and Core Logic**: Each product has different market performances and core logics, mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market sentiments. For example, MEG - bottle chips are recommended to wait and see; methanol is mainly driven by macro factors; PP and PE are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; PVC is recommended to wait and see in the short term; BZ and styrene are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have different supply - demand and inventory situations; asphalt follows the cost - end shock; urea is expected to fluctuate weakly; glass and soda ash are affected by anti - involution expectations and fundamentals; pulp is driven by macro emotions;烧碱 focuses on near - month warehouse receipts [32][33][35][37][38][39][41][42][43][44][45][47][48][50]. Black Metal Market Steel - **Market Review**: On Friday night, coking coal hit the daily limit down, and black metal varieties followed suit [23]. - **Important Information**: The profits of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year were announced, and there were price adjustment and position limit news in the coking coal market [23]. - **Core Logic**: The over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand and tariff policies [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Review**: The price of iron ore has corrected, while coking coal has maintained a strong upward trend [23]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipping volume is at a seasonal high, and the dry bulk freight has increased [24]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of iron ore are okay, but the room for improvement is limited. The contradiction in the market is accumulating, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly this week, and the coking coal futures limit on Friday night caused the price to fall [24][26]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have changed, and the inventory situation is different [25]. - **Core Logic**: The coal - coke market may return to rationality, and pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [26]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rose last week, and they were affected by the anti - involution meeting and the decline of coking coal futures on Friday night [27]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand, inventory, and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed [27]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term risk of chasing high is high, and pay attention to the implementation of policies and risk control [28]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs showed a slight increase [50]. - **Important Information**: No specific important information is provided. - **Core Logic**: The market game for live pigs has intensified [50].

Variety Views - On July 25, A-share's three major indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 11,168.14, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.23% to 2,340.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7873 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index adjusted on July 25, closing at 4,127.16, a decrease of 21.87 [1]. - On July 25, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1,778.4, a rise of 43.9 [1]. - On July 25, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1,283.4 yuan, a rise of 93.8 [2]. Influencing Factors of Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices rose and then fell during the day. The third round of price increases in the coking industry was proposed. Coking profits were meager, and daily coking production increased slightly after a continuous decline. Coke inventories decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased. Overall, the carbon element supply was still abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained high during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal mine production continued to decline slightly. The spot auction market improved, with rising transaction prices. Terminal inventories increased. Total coking coal inventories decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventories continued to decline. In the short term, inventory reduction was likely to continue. The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the coking coal industry was emerging, and policy implementation should be monitored [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar prices last Friday. Affected by the weakening of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending July 22, speculators increased their bearish bets on ICE US raw sugar futures and options. Funds increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 6,879 lots to 117,126 lots [3]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber adjusted on Friday. As of July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 210,814 tons, a decrease of 2,102 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 41,530 tons, an increase of 706 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 37,398 tons, an increase of 707 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean good - rate was lower than expected. August is a crucial period for US soybean production. Funds increased weather premiums, providing strong support for US soybeans at the 1,000 - cent mark. A new round of China - US trade negotiations is upcoming. In the domestic market, on July 25, soybean meal continued its weak trend. Domestic soybean supply was abundant, with high crushing volumes. Soybean meal production was high but sales were limited, resulting in a loose supply. Multiple negative factors, such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' requirements for pig farms to control production capacity and promote soybean meal substitution, are expected to keep the soybean meal market in a weak and volatile state. Future focus should be on US soybean产区 weather and import conditions [4][6]. Live Pigs - On July 25, live pig futures prices rose slightly. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' symposium signaled production capacity regulation, leading to strong policy expectations in the market. In the short term, the live pig futures market may be relatively strong, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental fluctuations. As of the end of June, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. From January to May, the monthly number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month, indicating abundant supply in the second half of the year. Currently, live pig consumption is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand. The overall live pig market has a loose supply - demand situation. Future focus should be on policy regulation, live pig slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Shanghai Copper - Fundamentally, the decline in copper ore processing fees indicates raw material shortages. The arrival of the consumption off - season has led to a decline in the operating rate of downstream cable enterprises, and inventories at home and abroad have continued to accumulate. The peak of photovoltaic installations has weakened new - energy demand, suppressing prices. In terms of news, Trump's tariff increases on multiple countries have raised trade concerns, and the dovish remarks of Fed officials have limited impact. Short - term downward pressure remains [6]. Iron Ore - On July 25, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.11% to 802.5 yuan. Last week, the shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, and port inventories increased slightly. Molten iron production decreased slightly but remained high. The policy expectations of "anti - involution" and important meetings have boosted market sentiment. However, iron ore prices have risen significantly recently, and it may be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 25, the asphalt 2509 main contract rose 0.78% to 3,615 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants continued to decline, and the planned production of local refineries in August decreased, resulting in a contraction in supply and inventory reduction. Refinery sales increased slightly, but due to rainy weather, demand recovery was slower than expected. Short - term prices will fluctuate [7]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,150 yuan/ton. On July 28, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventories decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 25, the 2509 log contract opened at 829, with a low of 822, a high of 833.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The market is facing increasing pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the resistance at 850. The spot prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - Recently, the prices of wire rods and screws have been rising. The current market has gone through four stages: sentiment ignition, production reduction support, spot price follow - up, and futures price leading. This rebound coincides with the "anti - involution" movement in multiple industries. The coal mine production inspection notice has strengthened the "anti - involution" expectation, driving up coking coal prices and boosting the sentiment of the black - goods sector. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has increased expectations of demand expansion. Policy expectations and production - reduction themes have amplified price fluctuations, and the futures market has moved faster than the fundamentals. The prices of cyclical products such as coal and steel have reversed the downward trend since last下半年. Steel prices are in a range - bound state with "cost support and demand ceiling." The key to breaking the situation depends on the strength of demand recovery and policy implementation [8][10]. Alumina - Fundamentally, the disturbances in the Guinea mining area are gradually subsiding, and shipments may increase. The import volume of domestic bauxite has rebounded, and port inventories have been steadily accumulating. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, and bauxite prices are generally stable. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of alumina is slightly increasing at a high level, and smelters are highly motivated to produce. In the short term, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the concentrated release of alumina production capacity may be optimized and adjusted in the future, and long - term supply may converge. Overall, the alumina market may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, and industry expectations are gradually improving [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has approached the industry limit, with only marginal increases. Recently, due to favorable macro - environment factors, aluminum prices have been strong, and smelters have good profits and high operating willingness. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season on downstream industries is intensifying. Although the policy environment provides positive expectations for long - term industry growth and consumption promotion, the short - term weak consumption pressure has led to a slight increase in electrolytic aluminum inventories, a decrease in the proportion of aluminum water, and an increase in ingot production. Overall, the Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and weak demand. Long - term consumption expectations are good, and industry inventories are increasing slightly [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has rebounded due to the anti - involution driving up related sectors and the rebound of the large financial sector. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs is gradually settling. Domestically, attention should be paid to the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July, with anti - involution expected to be an important theme. There are opportunities for market style transformation [3]. - In the bond market, although the economic data in the second quarter remained resilient under tariff disturbances, the抢 - export effect may weaken. With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but recent positive commodity and stock market sentiments have suppressed the bond market [4][5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to make a dovish statement in the July interest - rate meeting, and there is a possibility of more than expected interest rate cuts. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [6]. - In the base metals market, most metal prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - events. For example, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, while aluminum prices may also show a similar trend [8][9]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are supported by cost and supply - demand policies, but the market still needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile, and glass and soda ash prices are affected by policies and market sentiment [22][23][25]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber has different views from bulls and bears, and crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand [34][35][41]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, weather, and policies. For example, the pig price is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and the egg price is affected by supply and demand during the peak season [54][55]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: New central enterprise China Yajiang Group's leadership was unveiled; China proposed to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization; National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial enterprise profits; domestic commodity futures closed down at night; Tesla's intelligent driving plan is to be further implemented in China [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM show negative basis ratios, while IH shows positive ones. It is recommended to go long on IF futures on dips, focusing on market style transformation opportunities [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts all declined on Friday. Eurozone and US economic data were released, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term bond market is suppressed. Wait for opportunities to enter the market on dips [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish, and it is recommended to go long on silver [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated last week. Inventory changes varied in different exchanges. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, affected by macro - events and supply - demand fundamentals [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. Domestic inventory is at a relatively low level, but the price rebound is limited due to the off - season and weak export demand [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the medium - and long - term price is bearish. There are short - term risks due to market sentiment [10]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is marginally tightened, and if smelter inspections expand, prices may strengthen [11][12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were slightly strong. Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices were range - bound and slightly strong. Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and prices may be range - bound and slightly weak [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There is a strong expectation of supply - demand repair, but the real fundamentals have not changed. It is recommended that speculators wait and see [15][16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Supply is tightening, and demand is recovering, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated. The off - season demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19][20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices rose. Supported by cost and policies, but need to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices declined. Supply has rebounded, and demand remains high. Prices are expected to be volatile [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Supported by policies and inventory reduction, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction exists [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Both rose and hit the daily limit. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [27][28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, supply is excessive [30][31][32]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices declined at night. There are different views from bulls and bears, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [34][35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices had different trends. It has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40][41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, and the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to supply increase and demand decrease [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, prices are expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward [44][45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply and demand are both improving, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of valuation decline [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but demand is expected to pick up. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices rose. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, and the inventory reduction is promoted by high - maintenance [50][51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices rose. Affected by macro - expectations in the context of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices were stable with local fluctuations. The market is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices declined. Supply is sufficient, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to spreads [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Palm oil prices declined. Supported by policies and supply - demand fundamentals, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take a range - bound view [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic import pressure may increase, and prices may decline [61]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Affected by factors such as downstream consumption and import quota expectations, there are potential downward risks [62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed may be patient in cutting interest rates due to strong economic data, and the progress of tariff negotiations has made the trade situation clearer, leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The progress of US - EU trade negotiations has boosted global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the introduction of stable - growth policies for ten major industries have boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals may fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as hydropower, liquor, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Although economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and stable - growth policies have boosted risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term, paying attention to correction risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to rebound last Friday, but the night - session prices fluctuated. The sharp decline in coking coal prices led to a correction in the steel market. Real - world demand remains weak, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the decline in hot - rolled coil production. There may be production restrictions around the September 3 parade, and the short - term supply increase is limited. It is advisable to treat the steel market as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected last Friday. The weekly iron - water output decreased slightly, and the room for further growth in iron ore demand is limited. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. The supply of medium - grade powder in ports is sufficient, the block - ore resources are concentrated, and the supply of low - grade powder has been supplemented. The global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 122 tons week - on - week, but the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines increased significantly. The port inventory increased slightly. It is advisable to treat the iron - ore price as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, and tariffs are generally easing. The US economy remains resilient, but the manufacturing industry is weakening, while the eurozone manufacturing industry is stabilizing. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term stable - growth plans are sentimentally positive for copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, and Comex copper inventories are approaching 250,000 short tons [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with a slight increase in domestic social inventories and a significant increase in LME inventories. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document has boosted market sentiment, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is advisable not to short for the time being and wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased to 55.51%, and the supply of tin mines is expected to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be suppressed in the medium term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The exchange has restricted the position of the LC2509 contract, and the commodity sentiment has declined. There are many supply - side disturbances under the "anti - involution" background. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after the correction. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 48.6%. The price of imported lithium ore has rebounded, and the social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory have increased [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" market has driven the futures and spot prices of industrial silicon above the full cost of the main low - cost area, but there are inventory and supply pressures above. The demand for silicone has decreased due to a fault - shutdown. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term correction risks [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price remained stable last week, and the futures price had a high premium. The number of warehouse receipts increased. It is necessary to pay attention to the convergence of the basis. The inventory increased slightly, and the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry, the price of silicon wafers increased by 35% in July, and the production schedule decreased by 10% [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The recent driving force in the oil market is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening confidence in the US reaching an agreement with major trading partners have led to a slight decline in oil prices. The probability of the US and Europe reaching an agreement is 50%, which may threaten energy demand. The inventory is low, and the spot market has not shown obvious signs of weakness. The strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress priced commodities, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected with the sector and continued to fluctuate at a low level. The inventory has not shown obvious signs of depletion, and the overall demand is average. The basis has rebounded slightly, mainly due to the decline in the futures price. The social inventory is slightly accumulating. After the peak season, the market expectation will gradually decline. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil center, but the upside of the futures price is limited due to the inventory situation [15]. - **PX**: The short - term PTA operating rate remains high, and the tight supply situation of PX continues. The overseas price has risen to 874 US dollars, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has also risen to 293 US dollars. However, the PTA processing fee has dropped to a six - month low, which may lead to production cuts in leading plants. PX occupies too much industrial - chain profit, which may lead to downstream negative feedback risks. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside is not overly optimistic [15]. - **PTA**: The spot - trading volume is still declining, and some spot prices have weakened to a discount of 5 yuan to the main contract. The main - contract price has weakened with the futures market. The downstream operating rate remains low at 88.7%, and downstream production cuts still exist. The PTA processing fee has remained at a low level of around 150, which may lead to a reduction in the operating rate. The short - term inventory is slightly accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly to 54.4 tons, and the import volume has remained low. The coal - chemical products have risen slightly due to capacity - adjustment news. However, there is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance plants, the short - term downstream operating rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have not shown unexpected growth. The futures price has failed to break through the pressure level and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of crude oil has fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price has declined with the sector. The terminal orders are still average, and the operating rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, but more significant inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand stocking in August. The short - fiber price is expected to follow the polyester end in the medium term and can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: The coal - mine capacity - verification policy has pushed up coal prices, which has strengthened the support for methanol. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the market is overheated, and the short - term price is still strong. Fundamentally, the upside of methanol is limited by plant restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits. It is necessary to be vigilant against the expected difference near the Politburo meeting, and it is advisable to be cautiously long or wait and see for conservatives [16]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies such as "anti - involution", "chemical - plant assessment", and coal inspections, the PP price has rebounded, and the bullish market has continued. The short - term price is strong, but the futures price will face a pressure level, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see [17]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term macro - policies have boosted commodity prices, and polyethylene has followed the upward trend. In the medium and long term, the oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and downstream demand has weakened during the price increase. The import profit has increased significantly, which may lead to a worse - than - expected fundamental situation. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium and long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The impact of extreme heat in the US soybean - producing areas has decreased. Although the weekly crop - quality rate has slightly decreased, the hot and humid weather is generally beneficial to crop growth. US soybean exports have cooled down, and the news of direct domestic imports of South American soybean meal has weakened China's dependence on US soybeans. Currently, US soybeans are slightly under pressure, but the bullish market for soybean oil provides support. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US negotiations next week, which also provides phased support for US soybeans [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Since July, the production of Malaysian palm oil has progressed smoothly, the exports have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. Fundamentally, India has low oil inventories and high cost - performance, and there is an expectation of improved exports during the festival - stocking period. In the related market, crude oil has fluctuated, and the biodiesel policy has no room for fermentation. The domestic related oil fundamentals are under pressure, and the soybean - palm oil price has rebounded with the correction of palm oil, but the price inversion is still serious. In addition, the arrival of imported palm oil in China has increased, the spot circulation in the off - season is average, and it is close to the near - month import cost line. It is expected that the pressure of selling hedging at high prices may still exist. The palm - oil market is bullish, but the upside resistance has increased significantly. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The decline in US soybean and Brazilian export prices has led to a weak adjustment in the expectation of domestic long - term soybean imports. In addition, the increase in direct domestic imports of soybean meal and the reduction of soybean and soybean - meal export tariffs in Argentina have weakened the market's concern about the shortage of soybeans and soybean meal in the fourth quarter. The correction of the futures prices of the 01 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has basically priced in the logic of cost decline and is anchored to the cost of direct - imported soybean meal for support. The negative news adjustment has ended, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the US soybean market in the next stage. It is expected that the soybean - meal price will stabilize in the short term. However, if the US soybean production - increase expectation remains stable, there may be a further expanding bearish market at the end of the crop - growth period in late August [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean - oil inventory pressure is prominent, the terminal consumption is still in the off - season, and the basis quotes in various regions have continued to weaken. Currently, the soybean - meal price has declined significantly, and the cost has not changed significantly. The soybean - meal price has received seesaw support in the short term. In addition, the fundamental expectation of related palm oil is also poor. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to have a phased upward trend in the short term. For rapeseed oil, the domestic port inventory is high, the circulation is slow, and with the increase in direct - import channels for rapeseed and oil meal, the concern about future supply is fading. The preference of long - position funds is not high, and the weak - range market may continue [20].

Group 1: Trade Agreement Overview - The United States and the European Union have reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US, while the EU commits to increasing investments in the US by $600 billion and purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy products [1][7][12] - The agreement aims to stabilize trade relations and is expected to have significant impacts on the automotive and agricultural sectors, as well as increased focus on the semiconductor industry [7][10] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, the euro strengthened against the dollar, rising by 0.25% during trading [2] - Major US and European stock index futures showed positive movements, indicating market optimism regarding the trade deal [4] Group 3: Tariff Details - The agreed 15% tariff will apply uniformly across various goods, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, as confirmed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [10][11] - The US Secretary of Commerce indicated that the EU will open its $20 trillion market to US standards for automobiles and industrial products [11][12] Group 4: Criticism and Concerns - European officials expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, arguing it is unbalanced and detrimental to European interests, with concerns that it may harm local employment and industry [13][15] - Finnish Trade Minister Ville Tavio noted that despite the agreement easing tensions, the high tariff levels do not warrant celebration and may not be sustainable in the long term [16]

Group 1: Company Performance - Laopuhuang achieved a sales performance of approximately 14.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 252% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Laopuhuang is expected to reach 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 292% [1] - Each store of Laopuhuang generated nearly 500 million yuan in revenue during the first half of the year [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Sales Channels - Rebecca reported a total operating revenue of 598 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Rebecca was 9.38 million yuan, up 15.31% year-on-year [2] - The company expanded its cross-border e-commerce business through various channels, including third-party platforms and live streaming, which helped mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on its offline wholesale business [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The summer box office for 2025 surpassed 5 billion yuan, with a total of 129 million moviegoers [3] - Major films like "Jurassic World: Rebirth" and "Lychee of Chang'an" led the box office, indicating strong performance from both imported and domestic films [3] - The booming box office is expected to boost stock prices in the film and television sector, benefiting cinema chains and quality content producers [3] Group 4: Agricultural Policy - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and nine other departments released the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption," focusing on enhancing the production and quality of green, organic, and geographical indication products [4] - The plan aims to improve brand building and standardization in agricultural production while promoting quality control and good agricultural practices [4] - This policy is expected to benefit the agricultural sector and food companies, enhancing industry prosperity and supporting stock prices of related companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the implications for tariffs, investments, and specific industries such as energy and automotive. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. and EU have agreed on a 15% tariff on goods exported from the EU to the U.S. [1][3] - The EU is expected to increase its investment in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1][9] - The agreement aims to provide stability to the market and is particularly beneficial for the automotive industry [3][6] Group 2: Industry Implications - The energy sector is a key focus of the agreement, with the EU looking to reduce its reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas by importing more affordable U.S. LNG [6] - The automotive industry will be subject to the newly established 15% tariff rate, which is seen as the best outcome achievable by the EU [6] - The pharmaceutical sector will also see a unified 15% tariff rate as part of the agreement [6] Group 3: Reactions and Criticism - European officials have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, stating it is unbalanced and detrimental to European interests [10][12] - Concerns have been raised that the agreement may harm local employment and industry development in Europe due to the significant U.S. investment commitments [12] - The Finnish Minister of Foreign Trade and Development noted that while the agreement may ease tensions, it does not provide a sustainable long-term solution [15]

Economic Performance - The GDP of Shangqiu City reached 170.17 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [1] - The primary industry added value was 23.21 billion yuan, growing by 3.1%; the secondary industry added value was 63.09 billion yuan, growing by 6.2%; and the tertiary industry added value was 83.86 billion yuan, growing by 8.9% [1] Agricultural Production - The summer grain production in Shangqiu reached 9.05 billion jin, indicating a stable agricultural production situation [1] - Vegetable and edible fungus production was 4.32 million tons, growing by 3.2%; fruit production was 1.53 million tons, growing by 1.9%; and meat production from pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry was 330,600 tons, growing by 3.0% [1] Industrial Growth - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 8.7%, with 23 out of 34 industrial sectors experiencing growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 67.6% [1] - The added value of coal, chemical, and aluminum smelting industries grew by 13.0%, 13.2%, and 42.1% respectively, collectively contributing 5 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Service Sector Expansion - The added value of the service sector grew by 8.9%, with wholesale and retail growing by 7.7%, transportation, storage, and postal services growing by 8.2%, accommodation and catering growing by 9.1%, and information transmission, software, and IT services growing by 11.2% [1] - From January to May, the operating income of the service sector above designated size increased by 10.3% [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in the city grew by 6.8%, with industrial investment growing by 24.8%, surpassing the overall investment growth by 18 percentage points [2] - Private investment increased by 9.9%, accelerating by 6.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter, and exceeding the overall investment growth by 3.1 percentage points [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 78.93 billion yuan, growing by 7.6%, with 17 out of 22 categories of goods experiencing growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 77.3% [2] - Notable growth in retail sales included home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 34.4%, communication equipment at 34.6%, and automotive products at 11.4%, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrading [2]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government, led by Lee Jae-myung, is facing significant challenges regarding tariffs and trade relations with the United States, particularly after a planned high-level economic meeting was abruptly canceled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - South Korea is attempting to negotiate tariff exemptions with the U.S. by offering deeper industrial cooperation in sectors like shipbuilding and semiconductors [1][3]. - The South Korean government has previously struggled to convince the Trump administration to ease tariffs, indicating a history of diplomatic challenges in this area [3]. - In response to U.S. pressure, South Korea is considering opening its fuel market and encouraging domestic companies to present a substantial investment package to the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic and International Implications - South Korea has decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates imported from China, which is seen as a move to protect domestic industries during an investigation [4][6]. - The decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports is coupled with similar measures against Japanese steel, suggesting a broader strategy rather than a direct attack on China [6]. - The South Korean media has reported that the U.S. is pressuring South Korea to expand the scope of the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty to include the entire Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning Taiwan [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - China remains South Korea's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $310 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the economic impact of tariff measures against Chinese goods [8][10]. - The potential involvement of South Korea in Taiwan-related issues could severely damage the political foundation of Sino-Korean relations, reminiscent of past tensions caused by the THAAD missile defense system [8][10]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The South Korean business community generally favors maintaining good relations with China, while the government faces pressure from the U.S. to take actions that may harm these relations [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending under U.S. pressure, direct involvement in Taiwan conflicts is unlikely due to regional security concerns [10][12]. - The Chinese government has firmly stated its opposition to any agreements that compromise its interests, warning South Korea against using Chinese interests as leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [12][14].

Group 1 - The European Union has officially approved a retaliatory tariff plan against the United States, valued at €93 billion, targeting key economic sectors such as Boeing aircraft, automotive industry, and agricultural products [1][3] - This response is a direct reaction to the high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on the EU since 2025, which have severely impacted the EU economy, particularly Germany's automotive sector and France's aviation industry [3][6] - The EU's decision to implement these tariffs is part of a broader strategic adjustment, influenced by internal and external pressures, including concerns from member states like Hungary regarding reliance on Russian energy [6] Group 2 - The rising tariff barriers indicate a growing trend of economic decoupling between the EU and the U.S., prompting countries like Germany to relocate production lines to avoid tariffs [5] - U.S. agricultural states, such as Kentucky, face significant market shrinkage risks due to these tariffs, particularly affecting industries like bourbon whiskey [5] - Despite existing fundamental differences, the EU is strengthening its cooperation with China, particularly in areas like climate change and green technology, opening new avenues for collaboration [5]