Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The release of MPOB data has put pressure on Malaysian palm oil prices. The overall report is bearish as palm oil exports are lower than expected and inventory continues to increase. Additionally, recent actions by US senators against transferring small refinery blending obligations to large refineries may suppress biodiesel consumption, further pressuring overall oil prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 242 yuan or 2.55% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan or 1.81% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan or 0.82% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan or 1.38%. The spot basis was P01 + 26 yuan, an increase of 112 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%. The spot basis was Y01 + 204 yuan, an increase of 102 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.80%. The spot basis was OI01 + 200 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [1] Malaysian Palm Oil Data - In August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.18% [2] - Palm oil production was 1,855,008 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35% [2] - Palm oil exports were 1,324,672 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29% [2] - Palm oil imports were 49,036 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.66% [2] - From September 1 - 10, ITS data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last month [2] - AmSpec data showed that exports were 415,030 tons, an 8.43% decrease from the same period last month [2] Other Market Information - Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production from 86.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons. The total production of grains and beans is now expected to be 134.9 million tons, up from 130.5 million tons [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) decreased by 18 dollars/ton to 1,146 dollars/ton, and the December shipment price decreased by 26 dollars/ton to 1,142 dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged at 1,070 dollars/ton and 1,050 dollars/ton respectively [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 464 dollars/ton, the US West soybeans decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 444 dollars/ton, and Brazilian soybeans decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 487 dollars/ton [2] - The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (October shipment) remained unchanged at 235 cents/bushel, the US West Coast remained unchanged at 178 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port decreased by 1 cent/bushel to 297 cents/bushel [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a current price of 51.09 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.22% increase from the opening price [1] - On September 10, the opening price of CBOT soybean oil was 50.58 cents, reaching a high of 51.00 cents and a low of 50.02 cents, closing at 50.83 cents, which represents a 0.71% increase [2] - The trading volume of national first-grade soybean oil on September 10 was 23,000 tons, showing a significant increase of 360.00% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil for October shipment was reported at $1,146 per ton, down by $18 per ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for December shipment was reported at $1,142 per ton, down by $26 per ton from the previous trading day [2] - The number of soybean oil futures warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange remained stable at 24,544 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The US EPA faces significant resistance in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RINs from 2023 and 2024 to large refineries. If the previously set biofuel blending targets are met, it will be bullish for US soybean oil in the long - term. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 policy in 2026, which may increase palm oil demand by 3 million tons, but policy implementation is uncertain. With the gradual implementation of the B40 policy, the B50 policy provides some support [3][48]. - In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in August, with good export demand. Market institutions expect the ending stock of Malaysian palm oil in August to increase to 2.2 million tons, with a slightly loose supply. India's imports increased significantly in August due to festival stocking and cost - effectiveness, but future ship purchases are slow, and market transactions are sluggish. High prices suppress demand, and downstream maintains just - in - time procurement [3][48]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payroll data in August was far below expectations, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase production in October, pressuring oil prices. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [3][49]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Market Review - Since August, the oil sector has oscillated and closed higher. In the domestic market, at the end of August, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 to 9316 yuan/ton, up 4.46%; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 to 8358 yuan/ton, up 2.45%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 to 9789 yuan/ton, up 3.6%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 147 to 4377 ringgit/ton, up 3.48%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.65 to 52.1 cents/pound, down 4.84%; the ICE canola active contract fell 67.5 to 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.71%. In the spot market, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices also rose [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812 million tons, up 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.309 million tons, up 3.82% month - on - month; domestic consumption was 483,000 tons, up 6.63% month - on - month; ending stock was 2.113 million tons, up 4.02% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons, which had a bullish impact [22]. 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In August, different data sources showed different trends in Malaysian palm oil production. In terms of exports, data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS all showed an increase in exports from August 1 - 31 compared to the same period last month [26]. 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.289 million tons, up 728,000 tons month - on - month and 1.244 million tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the total production was 27.89 million tons, higher than the same period last year [33]. 3.2.4 India Vegetable Oil Imports - In July 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.55 million tons, up 20,000 tons month - on - month and down 290,000 tons year - on - year. Different oils had different import trends [35]. 3.2.5 China Oil Imports - In July 2025, China's palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil imports showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The total imports of the three major oils decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [40][43]. 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.4091 million tons, up 2600 tons from the previous week and 2.913 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of different oils also had different changes [45]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Biofuel policy progress and implementation have uncertainties. In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the supply is slightly loose. India's imports are affected by festivals and prices. Macroeconomic factors and oil price trends also impact the palm oil market. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [48][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of the MPOB report next week and the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce until March 9, 2026 also affects the market. The production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia in August are expected to change, with expected export growth and inventory accumulation. For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [23][24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, 0.30%, and 1.10% respectively. The spot prices of palm oil decreased by 1.38%, rapeseed oil increased by 0.22%, and soybean oil increased by 1.19% [2]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 119 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 10 yuan/ton (down 108 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of September 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 1076 yuan/ton (down 118 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 61.01 tons (up 2.8 tons from the previous week), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 123.88 tons (up 5.28 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 195.29 tons (up 7.98 tons from the previous week) [8]. Supply - side of Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% to 211 tons compared to the previous month. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [13]. Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.60 tons (up 15.8 tons from the previous week), the national major oil factory soybean inventory was 696.85 tons (up 14.32 tons from the previous week), and the oil factory operating rate was 61% (down 1% from the previous week). As of September 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 587.80 yuan/ton (down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil factories was 10 tons (down 5 tons from the previous week). As of September 5, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2285.60 yuan/ton (up 289.4 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. Demand - side - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 233 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 2000 tons. The POGO spread was 428.24 dollars/ton (down 22.75 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [22]. Strategy Recommendation - For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [25][26]. Next Week's Concerns - The concerns include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and weather [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a further build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventories, possibly reaching a multi - year high. With sufficient rapeseed and soybean yields, the overall supply side of the oil market faces significant pressure, causing the oil market to remain under continuous pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 54 yuan (- 0.57%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,366.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan (+ 0.12%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,727.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 39.00 yuan (- 0.40%) [1] Spot Prices - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 80.00 yuan (- 0.85%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 68.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 114.00, with a环比 change of - 10.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan (- 0.20%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 153.00, with a环比 change of + 19.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, rising to the highest level since August last year; exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, reaching a nine - month high [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 526 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 525 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 1,161 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,163 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) remained at 1,080 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) remained at 1,060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 470 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 9 dollars/ton to 442 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 486 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (October shipment) increased by 5 cents/bu to 240 cents/bu; US West Coast (October shipment) decreased by 10 cents/bu to 165 cents/bu; Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 10 cents/bu to 285 cents/bu [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (August 25 - August 29), the domestic oil and fat futures prices declined overall, with the palm oil main contract dropping 2.8% and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil main contracts falling over 1%. Spot prices were under pressure. Palm oil may experience shock and correction; soybean oil will have short - term shock adjustment; rapeseed oil will have short - term shock [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: According to MPOA, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03%. SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, the operating rate was 68.18%, and the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, and the production decreased with the reduction of rapeseed crushing volume [5] Demand - Palm oil: As of August 29, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 7,864 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,298 tons, or 41.28%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 168,800 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.37%. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 19,450 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27 tons [5] Inventory - Palm oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.8%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65% [5] 2. Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the FOB price of 24 - degree Malaysian palm oil was $1,087.5 per ton; the import CIF price was $1,112 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $17 per ton; the import cost price was 9,479 yuan per ton; the hedging profit was - 103 yuan per ton [6] 3. Overseas Oil and Fat Information - Malaysian palm oil: From August 1 - 25, the export volume increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The Malaysian government is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the 5% sales and service tax. The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff, but no timetable has been set. - Brazilian biodiesel: Due to the increase in the blending ratio, the biodiesel demand in Brazil in 2025 has been adjusted from 9.6 million cubic meters to 9.9 million cubic meters, and then slightly adjusted down to 9.8 million cubic meters, still an 8.9% increase compared with 2024. - Canadian rapeseed: As of the week of August 17, the export volume decreased by 64.34% week - on - week to 90,800 tons. From August 1 - 17, 2025, the export volume was 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared with the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [8][9] 4. Market Review Palm oil - The SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. The export in August increased month - on - month. The US agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff. Indian festival stocking and Indonesian biodiesel policy support demand. On Friday, the weakening of international oil and fat and crude oil prices dragged down domestic oils and fats, leading to shock and correction [11] Soybean oil - The US EPA's exemption decision for small refineries caused the US soybean oil price to fall. Domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, with high - level production and increasing inventory pressure. However, the start of the school year and the Mid - Autumn Festival are expected to relieve the inventory pressure. China has not purchased US soybeans yet, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations. Short - term shock adjustment is expected [11] Rapeseed oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to reduce imports. China is purchasing Australian new - crop rapeseed, which is expected to be shipped from November to December. Domestic rapeseed oil production is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, still under pressure. Attention should be paid to China - Canada relations, and short - term shock is expected [12] 5. Palm Oil Data Weekly Tracking Production and Inventory in Malaysia - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%, and the inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%, at a high level year - on - year [16] Exports in Malaysia - According to MPOB, the Malaysian palm oil export volume in July was 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%. SGS data showed that from August 1 - 20, the export volume was 667,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.1%. From August 1 - 25, ITS and Amspec data showed a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and 16.4% respectively [19] Domestic Palm Oil Import and Inventory - In July 2025, the palm oil import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.57%, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. As of August 29, the domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, at a high level within the year [25][26] Domestic Palm Oil Consumption - In July, the domestic palm oil consumption was 207,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,600 tons [27] Import Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 24 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan per ton [22] 6. Soybean Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. The commercial inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. In July, the export volume was 34,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons [31][32][33] 7. Rapeseed Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons, at a relatively low level year - on - year. The inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons, at a high level year - on - year [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The oil inventory is gradually increasing, and the consumption of palm oil has limited growth. The supply - demand pattern remains stable, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,422.00 yuan/ton, a change of +38 yuan or +0.40%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,356.00 yuan/ton, a change of +8.00 yuan or +0.10%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,766.00 yuan/ton, a change of -35.00 yuan or -0.36% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +70.00 yuan or +0.75%, with a spot basis of P01 + -42.00, a change of +32.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 124.00, a change of +2.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +0.00 yuan or +0.00%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 134.00, a change of +35.00 yuan [1] Market Information - Palm oil: Weekly palm oil trading volume increased, but the consumption demand for palm oil with a melting point of 24 degrees and below was limited. As of the end of the 35th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 558,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 33,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Rapeseed: Ukrainian farmers have started large - scale winter sowing. As of September 1, 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed crops have been sown, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated planting area. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) and (January shipment) remained unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean and oil imports: The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) decreased compared to the previous trading day. The C&F prices of imported rapeseed oil, American and Brazilian soybeans (October shipments) remained unchanged. The import soybean premium quotes also remained unchanged [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].