Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the draft of the US biodiesel policy exceeded expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia was insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas were low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supported the central level of oils and fats. Regarding palm oil, if demand - side countries maintained normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remained at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas might remain stable, supporting the producer prices to fluctuate strongly. There might be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation was relatively high, and the upward space was restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil and fat production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. Therefore, it should be viewed as fluctuating [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview** - Palm oil maintained a volatile trend this week. The net long positions of foreign capital, which accounted for the main positions of the three major oils and fats, reached a record high. Palm oil reduced long positions this week, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil slightly increased long positions. The estimated export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 31st decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% month - on - month. The SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 25th, 2025, increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected export of Malaysian palm oil implied a recovery in Indonesia's production or weak demand in consumer areas. The narrative of palm oil production increase and weak demand still suppressed the market. Although there were medium - term positive factors such as the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the short - term data deviation also brought correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - market rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level. China and Australia were in contact regarding rapeseed purchases, which suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil widened, mainly because some domestic soybean oil was exported, alleviating the domestic supply pressure of soybean oil [11]. - In the international oils and fats market, the USDA July monthly report estimated that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US would increase by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, which would be supplemented by a decrease in soybean oil exports and an increase in crushing output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil only increased by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipping volume of Canadian rapeseed farmers decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export volume remained relatively high. The commercial inventory was recently stable at a neutral - to - high level in previous years. In addition, the contact between China and Australia regarding rapeseed trade depressed the rapeseed price, and the price of foreign - market rapeseed fluctuated weakly this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large - scale export data, but the new - crop rapeseed faced a production reduction situation, which supported the rapeseed price. India might have started a replenishment process, which would support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic oils and fats market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The spot basis was at a relatively low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats was about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory was 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory was about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory was the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume would increase with the arrival of soybeans. After the increase in palm oil production, the willingness to export would also increase. Rapeseed oil would maintain a slow de - stocking trend, but the high price difference and weak consumption of rapeseed oil led to a slow de - stocking process. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats would temporarily remain at a relatively high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to view the market as fluctuating. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above [13]. - No specific content was provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - futures, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts. These charts help to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Palm Oil** - The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the supply situation of palm oil in these two major producing areas [28][29]. - It also presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which are helpful for understanding the supply situation of raw materials for soybean oil and rapeseed oil production [30][31]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas** - The report includes charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which can be used to analyze the potential impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory of Domestic Oils and Fats** - The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and fats and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in the domestic and Indian markets [41]. - **Profit and Inventory of Different Oils** - For palm oil, it presents the near - month import profit chart and the commercial inventory chart [44]. - For soybean oil, it shows the spot crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory chart of major soybean oil mills [46]. - For rapeseed oil, it shows the average spot crushing profit chart of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory chart of rapeseed oil in East China [47]. - **Inventory of Palm Oil in Producing Areas** - The report shows the inventory charts of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in palm - oil - producing areas [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Palm Oil** - The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of palm oil [51][53]. - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed** - It presents the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil (nearest - month shipping date) and the import cost price chart of Chinese imported rapeseed, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume** - The report shows the cumulative trading volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years, which can be used to analyze the trading volume situation of these two oils and fats [58]. - **Profit of Biodiesel** - It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil), which can be used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel production using palm oil and soybean oil [60].

食品加工包装在线 . 食品加工包装在线（www.sjgle.com）项下资讯平台，汇聚深度报道、科普知识、政策解读、企业动 态、专业活动等行业热点信息。 // // 点击蓝字 点击蓝字 · · 关注我们 关注我们 //// 油脂精炼是油脂加工的重要手段，可去除加工过程产生的水分、蛋白质、胶质、色素等一系列影响油 脂品质的杂质。精炼技术一般为脱胶、脱酸、脱色、脱臭，包含物理和化学多种方法。为改善传统技 术的不足，实现油脂适度、绿色加工，国内外学者对新型精炼技术进行了广泛研究。 以下文章来源于食品加工包装在线 ，作者小泥沙 01 脱胶 脱胶是指将毛油中所含磷脂等胶质去除。脱胶工艺被认为是油脂精炼加工中最重要的环节之一。脱胶效果的好坏将 直接影响成品油脂的质量和产量。在化学精炼时，因为脱胶之后伴随的脱酸工序可以进一步将残余磷脂等胶质去 除，所以在化学精炼中脱胶工序后磷脂等物质允许有一定的残留量；但是物理精炼过程中，如果脱胶后的磷脂残留 量超标，往往在其后工序中很难完全去除，会影响最终产品的风味和氧化稳定性。所以相对化学精炼，物理精炼方 法虽然无需脱酸，可减少废弃物的产生，有利于环境保护，但是因其对脱胶效果要求极高， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends, basis changes, inventory levels, supply - demand situations of domestic three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil), and provides short - and medium - long - term price forecasts for palm oil [2][35][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, the palm oil futures主力合约 (P2509) decreased by 0.29% to 8910, and the spot price decreased by 0.04% to 9012; the rapeseed oil futures主力合约 (OI2509) increased by 0.71% to 9524, and the spot price increased by 0.33% to 9622; the soybean oil futures主力合约 (Y2509) increased by 1.60% to 8274, and the spot price increased by 0.48% to 8454 [2]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 262 yuan/ton (increased by 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), 111 yuan/ton (increased by 13 yuan/ton), and 112 yuan/ton (increased by 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 1, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (increased by 158 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 9.55 tons (increased by 0.30 tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory in factories was 61.55 tons (increased by 2.41 tons), the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills was 108.81 tons (decreased by 0.37 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 179.91 tons (increased by 2.34 tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [16]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons (increased by 0.106 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 6.4559 million tons (increased by 0.0335 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 58% (increased by 3%). As of August 1, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 722.05 yuan/ton (decreased by 0.85 yuan/ton from the previous week) [21]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons (decreased by 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of August 1, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 295.20 yuan/ton (increased by 39.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 200 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 352.24 dollars/ton (decreased by 12 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [32]. 3.6 Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The US biodiesel policy is favorable. - Overseas: According to the USDA June report, the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production of Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. - Inventory: As of July 25, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 95,500 tons, the palm oil commercial inventory in factories increased to 615,500 tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 1.0881 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.04%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.48%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.33%. - Risks: The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation 3.7.1 Palm Oil Single - week Summary - This week, palm oil slightly declined by 0.02%. From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year. Since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively. The EU may allow Indonesian palm oil to enter its market at zero - tariff with a quota system. The BMD crude palm oil futures ended a two - day rising trend. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 9.6% compared to June. India set the reference price for crude palm oil exports in August at 910.91 dollars/ton, higher than 877.89 dollars/ton in July [35]. 3.7.2 Price Forecast - Short - term: Palm oil is hovering around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8750 - 9050. - Medium - long - term: The palm oil主力合约 has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise. The expected fluctuation range is 8600 - 9400 [36]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Malaysia's export data showed a slowdown in July. Although India's purchases increased, the overall inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. The crops in the US soybean production area are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although the export data is good, its impact on the domestic market is limited [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or -0.91% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,192.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.00 yuan or -0.58%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 111.00 yuan or -1.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or -0.67% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or -0.48%. The spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 8.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan or -1.13%. The spot basis was OI09 + 90.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a decrease of 6.71% compared to the 1,382,460 tons exported in the same period last month [2] India's Palm Oil Purchases - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that as global prices decline, Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing their palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season [2] Indonesia's Palm Oil Policies - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per ton, higher than the $877.89 in July. The new reference price means that the export tax for crude palm oil in August will be raised from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton. Indonesia also adjusted the reference prices and export taxes in previous months, with significant fluctuations [2] US Crop Drought Conditions - According to the latest USDA drought report, as of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, compared to 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 7% of the US corn planting area was affected by drought, compared to 9% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 5% of the US cotton planting area was affected by drought, compared to 3% in the previous week and 11% in the same period last year [2]

Core Insights - The company, Daodaoquan, reported a significant increase in profitability for the first half of 2025, with net profit soaring by 563.15% year-on-year to 181 million yuan, driven by effective cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements [2][3] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.792 billion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.16% compared to the same period last year, while core business packaging oil revenue grew by 20.53% [2][3] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 181 million yuan, a substantial increase of 563.15% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains was 157 million yuan, up 428.51% [2] - The gross margin for the core business packaging oil improved by 0.89 percentage points to 15.67%, contributing 62.71% to total revenue [2] Market Expansion - The company expanded its dealer network by adding 92 new dealers, bringing the total to 1,397, and increased its terminal outlets to approximately 830,000 [3] - Online direct sales revenue grew by 23.64% year-on-year, and core business packaging oil sales volume increased by 24.19% [3] Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 27.26% year-on-year due to refined management and improved channel efficiency, while financial expenses dropped significantly by 98.28%, indicating enhanced capital management efficiency [3] Strategic Outlook - Daodaoquan aims to further integrate R&D, marketing, and management resources to accelerate national expansion, focusing on high-end health oil products and improving service capabilities for dealers [3] - The company plans to leverage its strong first-half performance to enhance brand value and market share, ultimately creating more value for shareholders [3]

Group 1 - The company held its 16th meeting of the 10th Supervisory Board on July 30, 2025, with all three supervisors present [1][2] - The Supervisory Board approved the extension of the expected completion date for the "Jingliang Hainan Yangpu Oil Processing Project" from June 2025 to December 2027, while keeping the original implementation subject, location, purpose, and scale of investment unchanged [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows. It also provides data on key agricultural products such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with information on livestock and macro - economic indicators both in the US and globally [1][3][7][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, and related products are presented. Price changes of major currencies are also provided [1]. - Information on futures - spot price differences (basis) for palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions, as well as CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [1]. 02 Spot Market No specific content provided. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气 -** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have low temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 2 - 6. The Midwest has good soil moisture with rain this week, and although there is high - temperature stress, the overall situation is favorable for crops [3][5]. - **国际供需 -** - Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while exports decreased by 8.53% [7]. - As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. The flowering and pod - setting rates are also reported [8]. - Brazilian soybean exports in the first four weeks of July 2025 increased by 12% compared to the daily average of July last year [9]. - Argentina reduced export withholding tax rates for various agricultural products [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index declined on Monday due to falling freight rates of all ship types [10]. - **国内供需 -** - On July 28, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 72% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose [12]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils increased slightly, with palm oil inventory rising and soybean oil inventory falling [12]. - As of July 28, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports increased [13]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig - slaughtering enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28, there were price changes in major agricultural products in the wholesale market [14]. 04 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.6% [16]. - The US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index was 0.9, better than expected [16]. - The US Treasury increased its borrowing forecast for the third quarter by $453 billion [16]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28 [16]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, including tariff and investment details [16]. - The US will not extend the tariff - increase deadline on August 1, but Trump is ready to continue tariff negotiations [16]. - OPEC + is considering another production - increase action and will discuss September's production level on August 3 [17]. - **Domestic News** - On July 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted up, and the Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On July 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 18.351 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 23.813 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 5.461 billion yuan in stock - index futures. Details of fund flows for major futures varieties are provided [22][23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production, declining export data, and growing pressure on inventory accumulation, coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas and the gradual realization of high - yield expectations, the supply pressure is significant, causing the oils to face downward pressure and oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8946.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8120.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan or - 0.29%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9406.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 51.00 yuan or - 0.54% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8920.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan or - 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 26.00, a change of - 50.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 110.00, a change of - 6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9500.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan or - 0.63%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 94.00, a change of - 9.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Palm oil: From July 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 was 684308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 9.55 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [2] - Soybean oil: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 108.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week [2] - Import prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1183 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 583 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 573 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (August shipment) was 452 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 471 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 224 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (August shipment) was 197 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 262 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Industry | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Volatile [5] | | Protein Meal | Volatile [5] | | Corn and Starch | Volatile [5] | | Live Pigs | Volatile [6] | | Natural Rubber | Volatile [7] | | Synthetic Rubber | Volatile [11] | | Cotton | Volatile [11] | | Sugar | Volatile [12] | | Pulp | Volatile, Slightly Bullish [14] | | Logs | Volatile, Slightly Bearish [16] | 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, finding that most are in a volatile state. Factors such as policy regulation, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment impact the market. For instance, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects its supply and demand expectations; the complex supply - demand situation in the oils and fats market leads to market fluctuations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of lower technical support [5]. - **Logic**: Uncertainty in export demand, good weather in production areas, and various supply - demand factors at home and abroad are in play. For example, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil, the increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory, and the increase in palm oil production season [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and it is expected to be volatile [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: As sentiment fades, both types of meal see reduced positions and price drops [5]. - **Logic**: Abundant precipitation and suitable temperature in US soybean production areas are conducive to high yields. Domestically, short - term soybean arrivals increase, while long - term supply may face shortages [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [5]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance [5]. - **Logic**: Supply is tightening, but downstream demand is weak. New - season corn production is normal, and imported corn supply is abundant [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price rebounds may occur, but there is a downward trend after new - crop listing [6]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: Emotional trading has cooled, and the futures price has fallen from its high [1][6]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is affected by industry guidance and farmer sentiment; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase; in the long - term, policies may lead to a supply inflection point. Demand is limited due to hot weather, and inventory pressure exists [1][6]. - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with a situation of "weak present, strong future." Anti - spread strategies can be considered [6]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and rubber prices have dropped significantly [7]. - **Logic**: The market decline is mainly due to regulatory impacts on leading varieties. Fundamentally, supply is affected by the rainy season, and demand is relatively stable [7]. - **Outlook**: The market will continue to trade based on the macro - environment, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price continues to fluctuate accordingly [11]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall market macro - environment, the raw material price is volatile, and the supply is relatively tight in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain a range - bound operation [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly spread is converging [11]. - **Logic**: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is at a low level. Low inventory supports prices, but the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile. Low inventory supports prices, but upward resistance increases, and the monthly spread may follow an anti - spread logic [11]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Attention should be paid to import conditions [12]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be abundant. In Brazil, the sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. In China, imports are increasing, which will put pressure on prices [13]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, prices are expected to decline; in the short - term, there are short - selling opportunities [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Anti - involution trading may resume, and attention should be paid to arbitrage hedging during the decline [14]. - **Logic**: The supply of hardwood pulp is excessive, and demand is weak in the short - term but may improve marginally in the future. There is a ceiling on price increases [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations follow the macro - environment, and futures prices are expected to rise with volatility [14]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Fundamental changes are limited, and it is short - term dominated by macro - expectations [16]. - **Logic**: It follows the "anti - involution" macro - policy. Supply is affected by shipping rhythms, and demand is stable with no obvious peak or off - season [16]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile and slightly bearish in the short - term. Pay attention to changes in effective deliverable quantities of the 09 contract [16][17].