Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [70] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a faster pace of market release, leading to a decline in pig prices. As of January 30, the price was 12.24 CNY/kg, down 0.68 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were 25.10 CNY/head and 124.13 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week change of -18.25 CNY and +8.29 CNY respectively [2][8][29] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 30, the price for fattened bulls was 25.71 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week, while calf prices were 33.14 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [3][31] - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in white chicken prices due to pre-Spring Festival stocking. As of January 30, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.74 CNY/kg, up 0.24% week-on-week [3][36] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pace of market release is accelerating, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The average weight of pigs released is decreasing, with the industry average at 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg week-on-week. The supply from large farms is increasing, contributing to the price drop [2][19][29] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, down 290,000 from October, indicating a gradual effect of capacity reduction policies [2][29] Beef Industry - The calf market is tight, leading to price increases. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to supply constraints from reduced breeding cow numbers [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented measures to restrict imported beef, which is expected to benefit domestic beef prices [3][31] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price increases due to tight supply and increased demand from pre-holiday stocking. The price for chicken products is also rising, with a notable increase in profits for both chicken farming and slaughtering [3][36][39] Dairy Industry - The raw milk price is currently at a low point, with expectations for continued capacity reduction. As of January 23, the price was 3.04 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases [3][32][34] Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture is enhancing market inspections and intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified crops [3][45]

近日，山东龙大美食（002726）股份有限公司（以下简称"龙大美食"）发布2025年业绩预告，受生猪行 业整体下行影响，该公司业绩承压，传统业务板块出现较大亏损，报告期内，该公司按照企业会计准则 的相关规定对存货及生物资产计提了减值准备。在当前猪价持续低迷、全行业普遍亏损的背景下，该公 司正经历着周期底部的"阵痛"，并启动了一系列旨在优化资产配置、提升效率的战略调整，以期在行业 筑底过程中实现"轻装上阵"。 龙大美食的业绩表现是生猪养殖行业整体困境的一个缩影。统计显示，A股生猪养殖行业（申万三级行 业）的12家上市公司目前均已披露2025年业绩预告，除了天域生物（603717）科技股份有限公司，其余 公司均预计报告期内的净利润同比减少。 上海钢联（300226）农产品事业部生猪分析师王红焱向《证券日报》记者表示，生猪养殖行业呈现 出"量增价跌、盈利分化"的特征，受能繁母猪存栏持续高位运行影响，出栏量大幅提升，而猪价同比大 幅下跌导致行业自2025年9月份起进入亏损区间。 对于龙大美食而言，公司通过一系列"做减法"与"提质量"的举措，旨在优化资产结构、聚焦核心优势， 其转型成效能否在下一轮行业景气回升时转化为切 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in pig prices while chick prices have seen an increase [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 16% [2] - The report indicates significant price fluctuations in various agricultural products, with specific attention to the livestock sector [2][29] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly livestock, is experiencing varied price movements, with pig prices at 12.25 yuan/kg, down 4.97% [29] - Chick prices have increased to 3.88 yuan/500g, reflecting a rise of 2.92% [29] Price Trends - The report notes a 11.54% increase in chick prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [29] - The report also provides a detailed analysis of price changes in grains and oils, with domestic corn priced at 2271.43 yuan/ton, showing a 0.25% increase [22] Valuation Levels - As of January 30, 2026, the TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) P/E ratio for the industry is reported at 21.52, indicating a valuation perspective [18] - The report compares the agricultural sector's valuation against historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [19] Important Announcements - The report includes significant announcements related to price changes and market conditions, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these trends for investment decisions [20]

Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced a special plan for the 2026 Spring Festival, promoting various measures to facilitate inbound consumption, including multilingual maps and increased flight capacity on international routes [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to grow by 10.6% year-on-year in 2025, outpacing the growth rates of the overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing sectors [2] - China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leadership for the 16th consecutive year, with a completion volume of 53.69 million deadweight tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on February 2 [2] Industry Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing a short-term price recovery, with the average price of live pigs rising to 12.90 yuan/kg by January 20, 2026, despite a decline in December [6][7] - The supply side shows a decrease in the breeding sow population, with a total of 39.61 million sows reported at the end of December 2025, down 1.10% from October [7] - The industry is expected to see accelerated capacity reduction due to policy adjustments and ongoing low prices, with a potential price upturn anticipated in the second half of 2026 [8] - Major companies in the sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, reported varying sales prices and volumes in December, with average sales prices showing a slight decline [9] Company News - Qingdao Bank reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for 2025, with operating income of 14.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.19 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8% and 21.7% respectively [11][12] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 0.97%, and the provision coverage ratio increased to 292.3%, indicating improved asset quality [13] - The bank's loan and total asset growth rates were 16.5% and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively, supported by strong credit demand in the Qingdao region [12]

IPO Dynamics - Muyuan Foods plans to launch its Hong Kong IPO as early as January 29, aiming to raise up to $1.5 billion (approximately HKD 11.7 billion) and is expected to list on February 6 [3] - The funds raised will be used for overseas expansion, smart farming R&D, and debt repayment, potentially creating an "A+H" dual financing platform to strengthen capital during the pig cycle downturn [3] Acquisitions & Sales - JBB Builders is in discussions to acquire 100% equity of Chengdu Jianfu Convenience Store Management Co., which operates 65 direct stores and 30 franchised stores, aiming to enter the rapidly growing Chinese retail market [5] - Unilever has signed an agreement to sell its home care business in Colombia and Ecuador to Alicorp, which includes established local brands like Fab and 3D [8] - General Mills announced the sale of its Muir Glen organic tomato brand to Violet Foods, allowing General Mills to focus on core brands like Cheerios and Progresso [12] - Vitabiotics, a UK vitamin company, is attracting bids from private equity firms including Bain Capital and Blackstone, with a potential valuation of around £900 million (approximately RMB 8.6 billion) [15] Corporate Restructuring - MTG Corporation announced the dissolution of its wholly-owned subsidiary in Shanghai, which has been operating since 2013 and responsible for sales in the Chinese market, due to continuous losses [18][19] - On (昂跑) appointed Frank Sluis as the new CFO, expected to drive sales growth of at least 34% year-on-year for the fiscal year 2025 [21] - BVLGARI appointed Domenico Giampà as the director of its fragrance business, focusing on commercial strategy and growth in high-end fragrance segments [24] - L'OCCITANE appointed Mark Edington as the general manager for travel retail in EMEA and the Americas, leveraging his extensive experience to boost travel retail performance [27] - A2 Milk Company expanded the responsibilities of its Greater China CEO, allowing for better local management of market strategies [30]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall weakness of hog prices is difficult to reverse due to continuous release of production capacity pressure [1] - In February 2026, the market generally expects a significant decline in spot hog prices after the Spring Festival, with the post - holiday low possibly falling below 11.5 yuan/kg [5] - In trading, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling. After the Spring Festival, wait for the spot low to buy contracts 05 and 07 at low prices, or hold long futures positions and sell deep out - of - the - money call options [5] - Pay attention to the seasonal low of spot prices after the Spring Festival and the culling of breeding sows [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 January Hog Spot and Futures Price Review - In January 2026, the overall commodity market strengthened, and the agricultural product index rebounded. However, the hog index hit a new low and continued to fluctuate at a low level [9][10] - The hog spot price rebounded briefly in January and then fell back to a historical low. The price of piglets rebounded significantly, and the feed price was relatively strong [14][17][20] - Terminal consumption did not improve significantly, the average price of白条 meat fluctuated at a low level for a long time, and the pressure of poultry prices on hog prices decreased [23][29] - The hog price showed a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival this year. Historically, the average monthly increase in January was - 2.3%, and the probability of an increase was 46% [32] Hog Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows is currently in the green reasonable range, with a limited overall decline compared to 2024 [34][35] - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared to previous years, and the current culling of breeding sows is relatively moderate [36][38] - The production efficiency of single sows has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises is gradually narrowing [40] Listed Hog Enterprises - In 2025, the slaughter volume of leading group companies increased significantly year - on - year. However, the profitability of group enterprises was highly differentiated, and most still suffered losses [45][46] - In 2025, the overall breeding cost of group enterprises decreased, but the differences were large, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies was at a historically high level [49][50] Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In January, the sentiment of passive hog retention was still high, the weight reduction speed of the industry was slow, and the slaughter volume was at a historically low level [54][57][59] - The import volume of pork and offal declined from a high level, and the overall frozen product inventory was in the destocking stage in January [61][64] - In January, self - breeding and self - raising turned profitable, while the slaughter of purchased piglets continued to be in a loss state [67][68] Hog Futures Price - The hog futures price rebounded following the spot price and then fell back. The near - month futures price has become at a discount to the spot price [69] - The hog index failed to rebound from a historical low, and the trading volume was at a historically high level. The ratio of hog to feed on the futures market was close to a historical low [70][73] - Contracts 2603 and 2605 are below the breeding cost, and there is an expectation of a post - holiday off - season with a discount to the spot price. The price of peak - season contracts is slightly higher than the breeding cost but has a high premium to the current spot price [75][78] - The basis is slightly stronger than in the same period of previous years. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival spot price trend. There may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between months, and the discount before the futures delivery month is still high [81][84][87] - The volatility of the hog 2605 contract is at a low level [93]

新希望 20260130 摘要 新希望六和 2025 年因资产清理和减值计提导致亏损，其中 60%以上为 一次性影响，主要为提前处置低效种猪以提升种猪质量，为 2027 年战 略做准备。 饲料业务在 2025 年达到历史最高销量，实现量利双增，国内外市场均 有改善，海外市场保持高速增长，经营性现金流稳定在 92 亿元左右， 吨完全费用同比降低 30 元。 生猪养殖通过健康管理（降低非洲猪瘟发病率，净化伪狂犬病）、生产 管理（提高母猪窝均断奶数，提高育肥效率）和育种改良（引进国外优 质精液）等措施降低成本，运营成本降至 12.2 元/公斤。 2026 年，新希望六和将坚持现有战略，饲料业务上规模、调结构、提 效率，提高单场满负荷率，加强预混料外部市场开发，海外市场提升产 能利用率，并加强海外人才储备。 2026 年生猪养殖目标是每公斤成本降低 1-1.5 元，饲料完全费用再降 20 元，通过种质资源优化、提高养殖效率、减少过程损耗等多方面实现 综合成本下降。 Q&A 请介绍一下新希望六和在 2025 年的业绩表现及主要原因。 新希望六和在 2025 年预计亏损 15 至 18 亿元，同比转亏。主要原因是第四季 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, has shown strong performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with Moutai's sales exceeding expectations and institutional holdings at a historical low of 3.5% [1][3] - Moutai's price has increased from 1,550 RMB to 1,700 RMB, with expectations for further price increases before the festival, maintaining a price floor above 1,500 RMB for the year [3] - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, with Moutai being the top pick due to its attractive valuation and dividend yield above 4% [1][4] Agriculture Industry - Haida Group is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%-15% in its domestic feed business over the next 5-10 years, with overseas market growth exceeding 40% [1][6] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures to lower per-ton depreciation costs, thereby releasing profits [6] - In the pig farming sector, the focus is on the breeding sow inventory, which has decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential rebound in pig prices post-adjustment in production capacity [8][9] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a multi-point development trend, with promising prospects in innovative drugs and AI healthcare [11] - Retail pharmacy growth is expected to be between 10%-15%, supported by government policies encouraging high-quality development in the sector [12] - The market confidence is recovering, with opportunities in traditional Chinese medicine and retail pharmacy expected to increase due to improved inventory and consumption characteristics [12][13] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector is benefiting from signals of financial easing in real estate, with major brands like Midea and Haier entering a price increase cycle [14] - Midea's dividend rate may increase to 75% by 2025, with a projected dynamic PE of 12-13 times for 2026 [14] - The LCD panel market is also seeing price increases, with TCL Technology expected to double its earnings in 2026 due to the expiration of depreciation on its panels [14] Textile and Apparel Industry - Li Ning Company is highlighted as a key investment target, with inventory levels returning to 4.5-5 months and positive cash flow from distributors [15][16] - The company has entered a technology upgrade cycle, with strong feedback on new running shoe lines and a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee to sponsor the national team's uniforms [16][17] E-commerce and Cloud Computing - Alibaba is viewed positively for its AI and cloud computing businesses, with expectations for rapid user growth in its Q&A app and potential price increases in its cloud services [18] - The target price for Alibaba is set at 194 HKD, with a valuation of at least 10 times PE for its e-commerce business and 10 times PS for its cloud business [18] Snack Industry - The bulk snack industry is in a high-growth phase, with a market size of approximately 60,000 stores and potential for 50% growth [20] - Recommended companies include Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, with expected revenue growth rates exceeding 20% and profit growth around 30% [20] Additional Insights - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards consumer sectors, with a focus on increasing consumption rates in China as a key economic goal [2] - The anticipated recovery in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and home appliances, suggests a favorable environment for investment in these industries [11][14]

□庞国翔 冬至这天，外侄请我回乡吃刨猪汤。外侄是个地道庄稼人，经过辛勤耕作，生活进了小康。前些年，每 到杀年猪时，他都打电话请我回去，当时单位事多一直没能如愿。如今我退休了，正好回去凑个热闹。 我赶到外侄家时，年猪早已杀好。中午12点，两大盆热气腾腾的刨猪汤和各种菜品摆满了一大桌。我问 外侄，现在农村杀年猪还办手续吗？外侄说早就不办了，"只需喊来杀猪匠就行"。外侄这话，让我想起 40多年前农村杀猪的往事。 那时，我刚高中毕业，被招聘到公社一所偏远小学当民办教师。为增加社员收入，县里和公社大力动员 发展生猪产业，但成效一般。生猪产业发展不起来，上级有些急，想了很多办法，但效果仍不佳，家家 户户仍一年只养一头过年猪。于是，上面来了一项硬性规定：三口以上农户，饲养生猪要在两头以上， 一头卖给食品站，一头留下自家宰杀。食品站开出卖猪证明，社员方可凭证明请公社培训的杀猪匠来杀 年猪，否则就是无证宰杀，也叫"杀黑猪"，要被喊到大队去上学习班……这张小卡片式的卖猪证明，就 叫"返还证"。 当时，社员为啥不愿多养生猪呢？后来才了解到，社员们思想比较保守，他们认为农民的正经活路就是 栽秧种谷，饲养生猪只是个副业。个别农户还说： ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a national seed market inspection for spring crops, focusing on key crops such as corn, soybeans, rice, cotton, potatoes, and vegetables. This initiative aims to ensure seed quality and combat counterfeit products, which is expected to enhance the planting industry chain [1][11]. - The report anticipates a continued acceleration in the commercialization of genetically modified (GM) seeds, which is crucial for improving self-sufficiency rates in key varieties. The upcoming central document is expected to catalyze the seed industry sector [1][11]. - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased to 12.61 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.91% week-on-week decline. This trend is attributed to seasonal consumption patterns and inventory adjustments post-holiday [2][12]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may see accelerated capacity reduction as it enters a traditional off-season for pork consumption, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a seed market inspection to ensure the safety of seeds for spring production, focusing on major crops [1][11]. - The emphasis on GM technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements and enhance self-sufficiency in key crops [1][11]. - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on companies with significant first-mover advantages in the seed industry such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is currently 12.61 CNY/kg, with a notable week-on-week decline of 2.91% due to seasonal factors and inventory management [2][12]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, reflecting a 2.9% year-on-year decline, indicating a trend towards capacity reduction [2][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Lihua Agricultural, Muyuan Foods, and Shuanghui Development, among others [2][12]. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2377.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.32% [26]. - Wheat: The average price is 2529.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [29]. - Soybeans: The average price is 4072.11 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [41]. - Cotton: The average price is 15750 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.56% [46]. Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.65 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [53]. - Vitamin E averages 55.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.47% [63].