国元证券是一家综合性证券公司，业务涵盖证券经纪、投资银行、资产管理等领域。公司所属板块包括 证券、安徽板块等。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 截至2025年7月30日收盘，国元证券股价报8.67元，较前一交易日下跌0.80%，成交额4.34亿元，换手率 为1.14%。 数据显示，7月30日国元证券主力资金净流出5254.17万元，占流通市值的0.14%。 近期，国元证券在2025年半年度经营工作会议中提出，下半年将重点推进人工智能生态建设，以科技赋 能业务发展。公司表示，将围绕"数智化"趋势，提升金融科技应用水平，推动业务智能化突破。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Shouchuang Securities planning to list in Hong Kong highlights a growing trend among Chinese brokers to pursue an "A+H" listing strategy, driven by the need for capital replenishment and international business expansion in a rapidly changing market environment [1] Group 1: Capital Strengthening - The move to list in Hong Kong aims to solidify the capital base and enhance overall competitiveness, as capital strength is crucial for business scale and risk management [1] - The "A+H" model allows brokers to optimize their capital structure and improve financial resilience, which is essential for expanding capital-intensive businesses and enhancing risk resistance [1] Group 2: Global Expansion - Hong Kong's status as an international financial center is increasingly significant, providing brokers with opportunities to grow their international business [2] - Listing in Hong Kong is a direct manifestation of brokers' internationalization strategies, enabling them to efficiently expand into high-value cross-border services, particularly under favorable policies like the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" [2] Group 3: Differentiated Development for Small and Medium Brokers - For small and medium-sized brokers, listing in Hong Kong presents a viable path for achieving differentiated competition and overcoming resource constraints [3] - The Hong Kong market attracts numerous emerging technology and biopharmaceutical companies, allowing smaller brokers to focus on specialized services such as investment banking and cross-border mergers and acquisitions [3] - Expanding into international markets helps small brokers diversify their income sources, reduce reliance on a single market, and enhance overall service quality [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in private placements, with 76 companies completing placements and raising a total of 663.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 667.15% [1][2] - The majority of companies involved in private placements are from the capital goods, materials, and technology hardware sectors, with 21, 10, and 9 companies respectively [2] - Four banks raised over 100 billion yuan each through private placements, aimed at supplementing liquidity, while the remaining companies raised less than 20 billion yuan for various purposes [2] Group 2 - Securities firms are capitalizing on the recovery of the private placement market, benefiting from increased underwriting fees and potential investment returns from subscribed shares [3] - The expansion of private placement business is expected to enhance the revenue of securities firms, with underwriting and advisory fees being a significant portion of the issuance costs [3][4] - A total of 31 securities firms acted as lead underwriters for private placements, with CITIC Securities leading by underwriting 21 companies [4] Group 3 - Securities firms' participation in private placements is seen as beneficial for both their own profitability and the support of the real economy and industry upgrades [5][6] - The large-scale subscriptions by leading securities firms send positive signals to the market, boosting investor confidence and trading activity [6]

（记者 曾健辉） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 每经讯，2025年7月30日，北交所上市公司方盛股份（832662，收盘价：26.9元）登上龙虎榜，交易方式是连续竞价，披露原因 是当日换手率达到27.33%，成交数量671.85万股，成交金额1.88亿元。买一席位为华西证券股份有限公司重庆分公司，买入 476.36万元；卖一席位为华西证券股份有限公司重庆分公司，卖出626.84万元。 | | 2025-07-30方盛股份(832662) 龙虎榜 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 交易营业部名称 | 买入金额(元) | 卖出金额(元) | | न्द्र ग | 华西证券股份有限公司重庆分公司 | 4763577.5 | 6268433.2 | | 址2 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业部 | 3743092.42 | 902056.06 | | 买3 | 机构专用 | 3270222.35 | 2215010.24 | | नेट प | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第一证 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当 ...

ERN DE HASTER 固定收益点评报告 保险增持地方债,信托减持交易所债券 2025年6月债券托管数据点评 证券研究报告 2025年7月30日 · 核心结论 总量看,25年6月托管量环比少增。25年6月中债登和上清所债券托管 量合计 171万亿元、较 25年5月增 1.3万亿元,托管增量环比 5月减少 0.9万亿元。 · 分券种看,利率债、非金融信用债环比多增,存单环比负增。 · 分机构看,商业银行、广义基金、证券公司增持利率债、减持存单, 保险机构主要增持地方债,境外机构延续减持存单。 分析师 联系人 zhongzehao@research.xbmail.com.cn 相关研究 商业银行 25年6月增持利率债,减持非金融信用债、存单。具体来看, 利率债增持 6225 亿元（5 月增持 17457 亿元）:非金融信用债减持 105 亿元 (5月减持 515 亿元);存单减持 1471 亿元 (5月减持 1621 亿元)。 广义基金 25年6月增持利率债、非金融信用债,减持存单。具体来看, 利率债增持 7048 亿元（5月增持 1700 亿元） 非金融信用债增持 1314 亿元 (5月增持 452 亿元) ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, with the A-share financing ratio reaching 10%, indicating overheated speculative sentiment [5][20][24] - The U.S. stock market is projected to reach new highs as trade agreements with major economies are expected to boost risk appetite and profit expectations [26][28] - The report highlights that the bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, with a downward trend expected after recent gains [4][10][17] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report notes that sectors such as film and television, and oil and gas development are leading the market, while previously strong sectors like batteries and electronics are experiencing declines [21] - The commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.83%, although some commodities are experiencing price divergence [34][37] Group 3: Policy and Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing competition in key industries [9][38] - It mentions that the Central Political Bureau has set a dual expansion policy for fiscal and monetary measures to support economic recovery [38]

在资本市场的风云变幻中，牛市的到来往往如同一剂强心针，为整个行业注入新的活力。当市场走牛， 一线券商营业部及财富管理条线人士的生存状态也随之发生显著的变化。 2024年"924"行情至今已有十个月时间，沪指回到了3600点关口震荡整固，牛市氛围已不言而喻。目前 券商财富管理业务一线人员生存和工作状态如何？《每日经济新闻》记者展开了调查。 记者发现，A先生的烦恼不是个例。在记者加入的投顾群里，时有投顾发布开户推介的海报。 财富管理条线考核与日均成交假设有很大关系 值得一提的是，上述A先生所提及销售类KPI更好完成，记者也从与券商总部人士的交流中得到了佐 证。 牛市又有牛市的烦恼？ 弱市期间，卖产品对券商分支机构而言是一件难事，但也是重要工作任务。社交媒体中曾有不少业内人 士分享，遇到某些产品难卖，不得不自掏腰包完成任务。 一头部券商分支机构人士A先生对记者表示，2025年以来，最明显变化之一是产品，尤其是权益类产品 好卖了。"经常有投资者主动咨询基金有关问题，而且普遍对权益类产品兴趣更浓。与此同时，从交易 行为来看，权益类产品之间调仓行为也非常普遍，因此申购和赎回频率都增加了。" A先生表示，在此背景下，其感到 ...

- The report introduces the dividend point estimation method for stock indices, emphasizing its importance in accurately assessing the premium or discount levels of stock index futures contracts. The calculation involves the weighted sum of dividend amounts divided by total market capitalization, adjusted by index closing prices[39][40][42] - The methodology for estimating dividend points includes key steps such as obtaining constituent stock weights, estimating dividend amounts, predicting net profits using historical distributions, and forecasting dividend payout ratios based on historical averages. Additionally, the ex-dividend date is predicted using linear extrapolation of historical intervals[42][44][47] - The formula for constituent stock weight adjustment is provided as: $$W_{n,t}={\frac{w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}w_{i0}\times(1+r_{n})}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) represents the weight at the last disclosed date, and \(r_{n}\) denotes the non-reinvested return of stock \(n\)[45][46] - The report evaluates the accuracy of the dividend point estimation model, showing that for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 300, the annual prediction error is within 5 points, while for CSI 500, the error is slightly larger at around 10 points[57][61] - Historical data analysis reveals that the prediction model performs well for stock index futures contracts, with minimal deviation between forecasted and actual dividend points for SSE 50 and CSI 300 futures. CSI 500 futures exhibit slightly higher deviation[61][65][66]

Economic Overview - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, with the meeting noting "major economic indicators performing well" [1] - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow from 3.3% last year to 3% this year, posing external challenges to China's economy [1] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on "steady employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" [2] - No mention of "incremental policies," indicating a preference for stability over aggressive new measures [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The focus is on effective execution of existing policies, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [3] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, the highest in history, with limited likelihood of additional fiscal tools being introduced this year [3] Consumer Spending - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption, with initiatives like a 300 billion yuan fund for trade-in programs and 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [4] - Emphasis on both goods and service consumption to stimulate domestic demand [4] Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [6] - The external trade environment remains challenging, with potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. [6] Real Estate and Capital Markets - Focus on high-quality urban renewal projects, with attention to potential policy changes in major cities regarding housing market restrictions [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with continued support for equity markets [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that due to reduced likelihood of aggressive macro policy adjustments, funds may shift towards safer assets, with a focus on sectors like consumption and technology [7] - The consumption sector is anticipated to experience a rebound following recent policy announcements [7] Debt Market Outlook - The monetary policy stance remains unchanged, with a low probability of broad-based interest rate cuts, but potential targeted measures if new risks arise [8] - The bond market is expected to face limited risks, with conditions favorable for yield declines [8]