早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | 红枣 | 震 荡 偏空 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8695 元/吨，日跌幅 0.74%。CJ609 合约收盘价 8920 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.56%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 11888 吨，较上周减少 1255 吨，环比减少 9.55%， 同比增加 12.84%，样本点库存环比下降。 2.昨日河北特级红枣批发价 9.20 元/公斤，日环比+0 元/公斤。 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆 0 车，日环比+0 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3350 张，日环比+0 张。 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | | | | | | | | 近期红枣期价保持震荡偏弱运行。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限，节 ...

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Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, with attention to pre - holiday capital reduction [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market sentiment is warming up, and the PTA basis is being repaired. The cost side is still influenced by the Iranian situation, and the geopolitical situation is complex [1]. - In the PX market, although the short - term fundamentals are weak due to supply increase expectations and demand - side maintenance plans, the medium - term outlook is positive [1]. - For PTA, the short - term supply and demand is in a state of accumulation, but in the long - term, as the capacity expansion cycle ends, the processing fee is expected to improve [1]. - In the demand side, the polyester operating rate is declining, the weaving load is dropping rapidly, and downstream enterprises are preparing for the Spring Festival holiday. Different polyester products have different profit and inventory situations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the trends of TA and PX main contracts, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][13]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [25][28][30]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Include the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the operating rates of related industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [44][46][54]. PF Detailed Data - Provide information on polyester short - fiber load, inventory days, and the operating rates and profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [66][71][80]. PR Fundamental Details - Show polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [84][86][94].

Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) successfully completed its first cash settlement for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures contracts, marking a significant milestone in its operations [1][2] - As of January 30, the monthly average price futures for these chemical products have been running for 66 trading days, with average daily trading volumes of 5,015 contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, 4,558 for polyvinyl chloride, and 3,398 for polypropylene [1] - The cash settlement volumes on the expiration day for the contracts were 46 contracts for L2602F, 400 for V2602F, and 6 for PP2602F, indicating active participation from leading industry players such as Yong'an Guoyou Energy Co., Ltd. and Qiancheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The monthly average price futures contracts are designed to meet the industry's demand for risk management tools, allowing for cash settlement based on the arithmetic average of the futures settlement prices [2] - Yong'an Guoyou's chairman emphasized the importance of managing price volatility risks and noted that the new futures contracts align well with their operational and risk management needs, enabling them to lock in PVC monthly average prices [2] - Qiancheng Petrochemical's research director highlighted the efficiency and simplicity of the monthly average price futures, which cater to their clients' pricing models and improve hedging operations [2] Group 3 - The successful cash settlement of these futures contracts represents an important achievement in aligning the futures market with industry needs and innovating service models [2] - The DCE aims to enhance the international influence of China's bulk commodity prices and strengthen the resilience of supply chains through ongoing product and mechanism innovations [2]

2月3日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报1999.0元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，烧碱主力最高触及2031.0元，下方探低1949.0元，跌幅达2.53%。 目前来看，烧碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于烧碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 新湖期货指出，现货价格持续走弱，PVC开工高位，液氯价格保持高位，支撑氯碱企业开工保持高位， 电解单元利润基本持平，氯碱装置整体仍维持高负荷运行，产量保持历史最高水平，1月计划检修偏 少、供应压力较难缓解。氧化铝开工维持高位、刚需仍在，且产量维持在最高水平附近，但氧化铝生产 企业对烧碱采购价格继续下调，反映下游接货节奏偏谨慎；广西新增氧化铝投放推迟，削弱阶段性集中 补库预期。非铝下游节前有囤货预期，但积极性一般。液碱出货放缓，下游接货偏谨慎，当前库存大幅 高于往年同期水平。当前烧碱库存水平偏高，价格走低，但液氯价格良好，且出货顺利，使得氯碱企业 维持高开工，烧碱供应宽松；而氧化铝需求偏弱，非铝下游刚需拿货为主，且进入淡季；库存持续累 库，节前氯碱企业有降价排库需求，但目前来看效果有限，后期负荷有被迫调降的可能性 ...

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：1月29日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.34%，基差走弱至-72元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5250元/吨，较前一交易日持平。成本端布伦特原油继续上涨到68美元/桶以上；PTA产能利用率较 上一工作日持平至75.83%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.58天，较上周-0.04天。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：当前PTA加工费高位但PTA装置暂无进一步提升负荷的计划。终端织造库存累积；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，预计 春节前终端需求将转弱，当前原料涨价过快与节前避险心态形成矛盾，短期预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约：1月29日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌0.03%，基差 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-27 PF方面，现货生产利润-71元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。直纺涤短跟随原料大幅上涨，但需求疲软，涨幅不及原料。负荷 方面个别有小幅提升，大多维持平稳运行，涨价带动销售，短纤库存去化明显。需求方面，纯涤纱及涤棉纱部分 适度跟涨，纯涤纱销售顺畅，库存去化；涤棉纱销售适度好转，库存小幅下降，现金流亏损扩大。 PTA弱现实强预期，关注伊朗局势 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。短期中东局势依然紧张，美国持续在中东地区布兵，对伊朗的打击可能箭在 弦上，伊朗不同于委内，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木兹海峡，因此油价对伊 朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞拉。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN358美元/吨(环比变动+17.75美元/吨）。近期资本市场对化工产业看好，而PX和PTA方 面因基本面的支撑，资金介入偏积极，PXN上涨。现货方面，PX现货浮动表现较弱。近期PX效益提升带来供应进 一步增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预 期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的逻辑难 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Caustic Soda: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Soda Ash: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Glass: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear rating provided in a comparable format 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products. Overall, different products face diverse situations in terms of supply and demand, cost, and inventory. Some products show short - term bullish trends under the influence of factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - sentiment, and production changes, while others are under pressure due to factors like weakening demand and high inventory. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose during the day. Market supply has no obvious pressure, production enterprise quotes are slightly adjusted, and the premium situation in real - order auctions has decreased. Downstream factories are more wait - and - see, mainly purchasing at low prices based on rigid demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose during the day, but fundamental support is limited. For polyethylene, supply pressure will increase with new device production and restart of maintenance devices, and demand is weakening as the year - end approaches. For polypropylene, the number of parking devices has increased recently, and the overall spot supply pressure is not large, but downstream demand is weak [2]. Polyester - Polyester had a smooth de - stocking before the festival. PTA has no new capacity in the first half of the year, so it is a long - position allocation. However, demand is currently declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, considering PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations, there are opportunities for long positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads [3]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly last week. There are expectations of both supply and demand decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery. In the long - term, it is still under pressure due to capacity growth [3]. - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and profits are thin. Affected by raw material price increases, downstream increased备货 last week, and prices rose following raw materials [3]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins have been repaired under low - load and relatively low inventory levels. In the long - term, there is still capacity pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The upward trend of pure benzene futures prices slowed down, and the basis of East China spot narrowed. The demand for pure benzene increased due to the recovery of downstream styrene profits and production. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish, and in the long - term, pure benzene is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5]. - Styrene futures fluctuated during the day. The cost support strengthened due to the rise of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand was basically stable, so the price rose strongly. However, the futures price is far from the moving - average system, and there is short - term pressure as the Spring Festival stocking period is approaching the end [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market rose sharply due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran. Overseas device operation rates remained low, and port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, the market is expected to be bullish under the boost of the macro - environment, and in the long - term, port inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - Urea futures were stable in a fluctuating manner, and spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Before the Spring Festival, industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and large - scale spring plowing fertilizer demand has not yet started. The supply pressure remains high, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased, and the overall inventory still has pressure. Exports are good, but domestic demand is average. It is expected that the price center will rise this year [7]. - Caustic soda showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Liquid caustic soda prices have not yet stabilized and continue to decline. The industry inventory is under high pressure. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, and the operation rate has rebounded. The follow - up production reduction needs to be continuously tracked [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Weekly inventory increased slightly, and the overall pressure is high. Supply pressure is large, and downstream purchasing sentiment is poor. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment, and in the long - term, it faces over - supply pressure [8]. - Glass showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Spot prices in some regions were raised today. Inventory fluctuates slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation as downstream enterprises approach the holiday. Currently, the valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8].

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月26日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | РХ | ★☆★ | | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | ★☆☆ | 瓶片 | ★☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | な女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices have historically surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, just over 100 days after breaking the $4000 mark [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The Israeli Defense Forces have entered a state of high alert due to escalating regional tensions and are preparing for potential U.S. military actions against Iran [4][5] - Iranian armed forces have declared a state of full readiness, monitoring all hostile movements and prepared to retaliate against any form of aggression [6][7] - Turkey's Foreign Minister has warned external forces against attempting regime change in Iran, emphasizing that the current situation will not lead to such an outcome [8][9] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The chemical futures market has shown a collective strengthening, with significant price increases in aromatics such as pure benzene and styrene, driven by multiple factors including capital rotation and supply disruptions [14][15] - Pure benzene futures rose from 5573 yuan/ton to 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.67%, while styrene futures increased from 7124 yuan/ton to 7708 yuan/ton, up 8.19% [15][16] - The recent price surge in styrene is attributed to supply-side disruptions and increased market sentiment, with expectations of further price support from downstream demand as the Chinese New Year approaches [17][19]