港股市场策略周报 2025.12.01-2025.12.07 | 分析师： | 蒋开来 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BWL381 | | 联系电话： | 852-6430 1060 | | 邮箱： | jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： n 本周港股低开高走，整体延续"修复但不亢奋"的节奏，AI、互联网等热门板块有所回补，呈现"龙头优先、弹性有限" 的结构性格局。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别+0.84%/+0.87%/+1.13%。一级行业板块多数收涨，仅电讯 业、必需性消费、地产建筑业、医疗保健业收跌。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点为84.45%，估值水平接近5年均值向上一个标准差。 l 港股市场宏观环境： 2 n 基本面：非制造业PMI跌落荣枯线，制造业PMI好于10月前值，但也处于荣枯线以下，反映整体经济景气水平仍偏弱。 n 资金面：美国降息概率较高，12月降息25bp概率接近九成；本周南向资金继续保持净流入，环比上周下降49.45%。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内经济仍处于 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周） 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 06 日 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场整体上涨，其中创业板指涨幅居前，上涨 1.86%。从风格 指数来看，中盘价值和中盘成长表现突出，分别上涨 2.95%和 2.72%。市场日均成交 额为 1.7 万亿，环比小幅下滑 2.35%。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周市场情绪受到多重因素影响。一方面，国产 GPU 企业摩尔线程科 创板上市首日大涨超 400%，提振了市场对硬科技板块的信心。同时，AI 手机概念持 续火热，相关板块表现活跃，反映出市场对 AI 产业前景的积极 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月06日 港股投资周报 近期，环球新材国际等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为大金融、消费、 医药、制造和科技板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生中型股指数收益最高，累计收益 1.57%；恒生小型 股指数收益最低，累计收益-0.01%。 资源股领涨，港股精选组合本年上涨 62.49% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 1.12%，相对恒生指数超额收益 0.24%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 62.49%，相对恒生指数超额收益 32.45%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 本周，港股通股票收益中位数 0.00%，投资港股的主动基金收益中位数 0.91%。 本年，港股通股票收益中位数 26.16%，投资港股的主动基金收益中位数 34.48%。 行业指数方面，本周原材料业行业收益最高，累计收益 9.98%；医疗保健业 行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and construction PMIs showed slight recovery in November, yet remain below the expansion threshold, particularly the construction sector at its lowest level in five years, while the service sector experienced a notable decline during the off-peak consumption season [2][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 to 49.2 in November, with most sub-indices improving, indicating a recovery in demand and stable production activities. The production index reached 50, up 0.3 from the previous month, and the new orders index increased to 49.2, up 0.4 [2] - The "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies introduced at the end of September are expected to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investments in November. The new export orders index improved to 47.6, up 1.7, reflecting a stabilization in foreign trade due to the outcomes of US-China tariff negotiations [2] - The raw material purchasing price index rose to 53.6, up 1.1, while the factory price index increased to 48.2, up 0.7. However, the widening gap between raw material purchasing and finished product prices indicates a blockage in price transmission, which may hinder future profit recovery for enterprises [2] Service Sector - The service sector PMI fell to 49.5, down 0.7 from the previous month, marking the only decline among the three sectors. Following the concentrated release of consumer demand during the "Golden Week," various sectors such as retail, accommodation, transportation, and entertainment saw a decline due to high base effects from the previous month [3] - The financial sector's business activity index and new orders index both rose significantly, exceeding 55%, indicating strong performance. The service sector PMI expectation index remains at 55.9, suggesting potential recovery in consumer-related services in December due to year-end festivities and winter demand [3] Construction Sector - The construction PMI increased by 0.5 to 49.6, indicating some recovery in construction activities, yet it remains at the lowest level for the same period since 2019, reflecting ongoing weak demand in the industry [3] - The civil engineering business activity index remains above 52, indicating growth in civil engineering activities. The business expectation index improved by 1.9, suggesting that accelerated progress on key projects and the impact of policy financial tools may drive further growth in the construction sector [3] Future Outlook - In December, all sectors are expected to enter a year-end sprint phase, coinciding with important policy implementation and capital injection points. The anticipated demand increase from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the backdrop of a phased US-China trade agreement may lead to a steady rise in the manufacturing PMI [4] - For the construction sector, an increase in the speed of capital injection related to infrastructure is expected in Q4, which may lay a solid foundation for growth stabilization [4] - The concentrated release of consumer-related demand during year-end festivities and winter is anticipated to boost the service sector in the coming month, with financial activities continuing to support the sector [4]

Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.64% this week, with a daily average trading volume declining again [1] - The growth style index led the performance with a 4.65% increase, while the financial sector only gained 0.10% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%, outperforming the CSI 300, with the materials sector leading at 4.28% [4][5] Sector Performance - Among the 11 first-level industries in the CSI, telecommunications, information technology, and materials showed the highest gains, while energy, real estate, and finance experienced the largest declines [1] - The weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 is 17.04, with a median P/E of 21.66 [3] - The Hang Seng Index's financial sector has a weighted P/E of 9.02, while the non-financial sector stands at 19.97 [6] Valuation Metrics - The median P/E for the Hang Seng Index is 15.13, with a weighted P/E of 13.23 [6] - The S&P 500 index has a median P/E of 25.36, with a weighted P/E of 28.91 [8] - The valuation metrics indicate that the financial sector in both the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index remains lower compared to non-financial sectors [3][6] Commodity Market - The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 1.99% this week, with precious metals leading the gains [30][31] - The energy sector showed a slight rebound, while oilseeds and oils experienced a mild decline [30]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently boosted by expectations of mainland policies, with notable performance in the technology and consumer sectors [1] - The implementation plan issued by six domestic departments aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, leading to an increase in valuations for mainland technology and consumer companies listed in Hong Kong [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is leading the gains, supported by national policies promoting technological self-reliance, with significant increases in the telecommunications and electronics sectors driven by favorable developments such as the collaboration between Google and Meta [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which consists of 50 large-cap and liquid stocks traded through the Stock Connect mechanism, covering multiple industries with a significant weight in the financial sector [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of large blue-chip stocks under the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The biotechnology industry in Hong Kong may present structural opportunities, alongside strong performances in raw materials, non-essential consumer goods, and healthcare sectors [1]

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks. The CSI 2000 index and the ChiNext index rose by 4.99% and 4.54% respectively, while the SSE 50 index only increased by 0.47% [6] - The market's structural rise was primarily driven by positive developments in the technology sector, particularly a significant partnership between Google and Meta, which is expected to enhance the performance of core hardware suppliers like Zhongji Xuchuang [6][7] - Looking ahead, the technology growth sector is anticipated to remain a market focus due to strong government support for technological self-reliance. However, a decrease in trading volume may indicate reduced investor enthusiasm for high-priced stocks, leading to potential rapid rotations and short-term volatility in specific sectors [7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the way with a 3.77% increase, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.53%. The materials, discretionary consumer, and healthcare sectors performed well, whereas the energy sector declined [8] - The positive performance in the Hong Kong market was largely influenced by sentiment and policy expectations from the mainland, particularly a new implementation plan aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods [8] - Future trends in the Hong Kong market are expected to closely align with mainland policies and market sentiment. The technology and healthcare sectors are likely to benefit from ongoing policy support, while investors should remain vigilant regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and its impact on global liquidity [8]

Core Insights - The market value of public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.33 trillion yuan in Q3 2025, with passive funds surpassing active funds for the first time since 2017 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market value of public funds' investments in Hong Kong stocks reached 13,255 billion yuan, with passive funds holding 7,000 billion yuan (52.8%) and active funds holding 6,255 billion yuan (47.2%) [4][5]. - The significant increase in passive fund holdings, which rose by 73% compared to Q2 2025, indicates a growing trend of capital flowing into the Hong Kong market through ETF products [5][6]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The top-performing ETFs in Q3 2025 included the Fuqua Hong Kong Internet ETF, Hua Bao Hong Kong Internet ETF, and Huaxia Hang Seng Technology Index ETF, with substantial increases in fund shares [6][7]. - Active funds showed a preference shift towards sectors like healthcare and materials, while reducing exposure to telecommunications and finance [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite market fluctuations, some active fund managers increased their positions in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on technology core assets due to favorable valuations [9]. - The overall trading volume in the Hong Kong market has significantly increased, with average daily turnover reaching 2,579 billion HKD, nearly doubling from the previous year [11].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable activity, with new IPOs achieving a record subscription multiple of 7558 times and an average first-day increase of 38% this year [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 48.10% year-to-date, outperforming major global indices [2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is vibrant, with a total fundraising amount of approximately 186.5 billion HKD in 2025, making it the largest globally [2] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed global markets since 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 28.92% [2] - The new IPO market has seen a low first-day failure rate of 22%, the lowest in nine years, with no IPOs breaking below their issue price since September 9 [2][5] - Major IPOs include companies like Ningde Times and Zijin Mining International, which have seen significant first-day price increases [2][6] Investment Trends - Private equity firms such as Hillhouse, Gaoyi, and Jinglin have participated as cornerstone investors in new IPOs, indicating strong institutional interest [5][6] - Investors are focusing on fundamental analysis, emphasizing business models, industry prospects, and financial health rather than initial trading hype [4][7] - The market is characterized by a structural trend driven by the high-growth AI industry, with expectations for continued performance despite macroeconomic challenges [4][8] Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to maintain upward momentum due to attractive valuations, improved liquidity, and the global trend towards AI applications [8][9] - The influx of southbound capital has exceeded 1.2 trillion HKD this year, enhancing market liquidity and supporting ongoing structural trends [9] - Key investment sectors include technology, healthcare, and high-dividend assets, which are anticipated to provide safety margins and growth potential [8][9]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has been exceptionally active, with new IPOs achieving a record subscription multiple of 7558 times and an average first-day increase of 38% this year [1][2][5] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 48.10% year-to-date, outperforming major global indices [2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has seen a total fundraising of approximately 186.5 billion HKD, with a low first-day failure rate of 22%, the lowest in nine years [2][9] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed global markets since 2025, with significant contributions from the technology and healthcare sectors [2][8] - Major IPOs this year include companies like CATL, Zijin Mining, and Hengrui Medicine, indicating strong market interest [2][6] - The recent trend shows that new stocks are not only avoiding price drops but are also frequently doubling in value [5][6] Investment Sentiment - Private equity firms such as Hillhouse, Gaofeng, and Jinglin have participated as cornerstone investors in new IPOs, indicating confidence in the market [1][5] - Investors are focusing on fundamental analysis and valuation when considering new IPOs, rather than just initial trading activity [6][7] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend due to improved liquidity and attractive valuations, particularly in technology, healthcare, and high-dividend sectors [8][9] Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the Hong Kong market has the potential for sustained recovery, supported by trends in AI and improved liquidity conditions [1][4][8] - The influx of southbound capital has exceeded 1.2 trillion HKD this year, enhancing market liquidity and supporting the ongoing structural rally [9] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains relatively low compared to other global markets, suggesting further upside potential [8][9]