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同样是牛市,为什么2025年赚钱比2020年难?
雪球· 2026-01-12 08:39
以下文章来源于思想钢印 ,作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户,私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 简单说 , 股市上涨不是因为上市公司业绩好 , 而是因为钱多 ; 但进来的钱并不傻 , 还是会寻找边际增长更快的方向 , 最终形成了今年明显 的 " 结构性牛市 " 的特点 。 A股历史上由估值推动的行情中 , 结构性行情的特征都很明显 , 上涨的涨得更猛 , 不涨的越不涨 , 这种 " 去弱持强 " , 背后是两套不同判 断逻辑的殊途同归 : 一类是看基本面的资金 , 是出于业绩预期考虑 。 投资者都习惯 " 线性外推 " , 认为现在增速快的行业 , 远期估值并不高 ; 而现在景气度下 行的行业 , 就算现在估值不高 , 但不知道业绩下降到什么时候 , 反而更没法涨 。 作者:思想钢印9999 来源:雪球 01 结构性牛市 2025年的大涨再次证明 , A股 ( 一两年以内的走势 ) 对流动性的敏感程度 , 远远超过对宏观基本面 。 当然 , A股与宏观基本面并非是完全不相关 , 而是 ...
天银机电股价又创新高,今日涨14.15%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-12 02:19
天银机电股价再创历史新高,该股近期呈不断突破新高之势,近一个月累计有11个交易日股价刷新历史 纪录。截至09:37,该股目前上涨14.15%,股价报44.86元,成交2952.78万股,成交金额12.53亿元,换 手率7.05%,该股最新A股总市值达190.67亿元,该股A股流通市值187.87亿元。 公司发布的三季报数据显示,前三季度公司共实现营业收入5.81亿元,同比下降22.75%,实现净利润 2427.02万元,同比下降56.10%,基本每股收益为0.0571元,加权平均净资产收益率1.54%。(数据宝) (文章来源:证券时报网) 证券时报·数据宝统计显示,天银机电所属的家用电器行业,目前整体跌幅为0.16%,行业内,目前股价 上涨的有55只,涨幅居前的有天银机电、格利尔、得邦照明等,涨幅分别为14.15%、8.85%、7.76%。 股价下跌的有42只,跌幅居前的有九联科技、立达信、珠城科技等,跌幅分别为4.34%、3.24%、 2.48%。 两融数据显示,该股最新(1月9日)两融余额为14.80亿元,其中,融资余额为14.79亿元,近10日增加 4.83亿元,环比增长48.53%。 ...
87家公司预告2025年业绩 62家预增
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-12 01:44
87家公司公布了全年业绩预告,业绩预增公司有62家,占比71.26%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示,截至1月12日,已经有87家公司公布了2025年度业绩预告。业绩预告类型显 示,预增公司62家、预盈5家,合计报喜公司比例为77.01%;业绩预降、预亏公司分别有10家、4家。 | 600983 | 惠而浦 | 2026.01.06 | 150.00 | 10.29 | 7.64 | 家用电 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 器 | | 300748 | 金力永 | 2026.01.08 | 144.00 | 37.80 | 10.82 | 有色金 | | | 磁 | | | | | 属 | | 002925 | 盈趣科 技 | 2026.01.09 | 138.55 | 20.70 | 22.20 | 电子 | | 300389 | 艾比森 | 2026.01.08 | 126.71 | 17.51 | 7.89 | 电子 | | 002258 | 利尔化 | 2026.01.07 | 122.91 | 13.92 | 6.6 ...
机构研究周报:中国市场长牛基础日益坚实
Wind万得· 2026-01-11 22:42
Group 1 - The current A-share market ecosystem is undergoing systematic restructuring, with a solid foundation for a "long bull, slow bull" market being established. The strategic position of the capital market has significantly improved, and the institutional framework is becoming more refined, providing a solid guarantee for stable market operations [5][14] - The "New Nine Articles" are promoting a transformation of the market from being financing-led to a balanced focus on both financing and investment, leading to continuous improvements in the quality of listed companies and investor protection [5] - The profitability of core assets is showing signs of a turning point, with both technology and traditional sectors presenting structural opportunities, and the matching of valuation and profitability is improving [5] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to gradually unfold, supported by factors that have driven previous market activity, including liquidity factors such as margin trading and insurance capital, which are anticipated to continue into January [6] - The macroeconomic environment, including the previous appreciation of the RMB, is creating a favorable atmosphere for liquidity and risk appetite, with potential catalysts such as policy adjustments and improvements in fundamental data expected in January [6] - After a two-month earnings window, listed companies will once again face fundamental verification as they enter the earnings forecast disclosure window in January [6] Group 3 - A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with structural inflows of incremental funds anticipated in January, supported by the appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital positioning at the year-end [7] - Market sentiment appears slightly subdued, with industry preferences concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense, suggesting that investors should focus on large-cap styles and policy-related industry opportunities [7] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a period of explosive growth, with the current phase being the initial stage of large-scale infrastructure development, accelerating towards commercial applications [13] - The "Space Power" goal is clearly defined, with national strategic support guiding the industry, and the low-orbit satellite internet constellation is set to begin high-density networking by 2025, marking a critical window for large-scale networking from 2025 to 2027 [13] Group 5 - A weak dollar cycle is expected to boost the performance of A/H shares, as it drives domestic exports and improves corporate profits, with global liquidity easing valuations and funds favoring high-growth emerging markets [14] - Structural improvements in sectors such as technology and domestic demand are anticipated to benefit from corporate profit recovery, leading to a rebound in these areas [14]
关注黄金珠宝春节旺季行情:家用电器
Huafu Securities· 2026-01-11 05:31
行 华福证券 研 究 报 告 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+2.65%,其中纺织制造涨跌幅+2.64%, 服装家纺涨跌幅+2.64%。本周 328 级棉现货 15,930 元/吨(+2.21%), 美棉 CotlookA74.8 美分/磅(+0.67%),内外棉价差 2239 元/吨 (+35.29%)。 风险提示 家用电器 2026 年 01 月 11 日 业 研 究 家用电器 关注黄金珠宝春节旺季行情 投资要点: 黄金珠宝春节旺季销售已逐步启动,关注数据催化下投资机会 行 业 定 期 报 告 关注黄金珠宝春节行情启动,情人节叠加春节或使得旺季更为明 显。每年春节是黄金珠宝的销售旺季,各大品牌在春节前 1 个月,其 加盟商便会开始备货,力争做到开门红,2025 年除夕在 1 月 29 日,2026 年除夕在 2 月 16 日,且距离另外一个黄金珠宝销售的重要节日情节人 相隔较近,一方面今年过年较晚或使得黄金珠宝珠宝的春节行情开启 较去年更晚,在去年前期的高基数下或有错期,但今年双节叠加在一 起,或使得春节行情更为明显。 金价稳定持续上涨有利于终端动销。2026 年以来,上金所价格仍 维持在持续上涨的通道中,基于绝 ...
一起“开箱”,解锁中国企业出海新图景!
21世纪经济报道· 2026-01-10 02:11
Group 1: Manufacturing and Technology Exports - Chinese "New Energy Vehicles" are rapidly expanding in global markets, showcasing strong growth potential [1] - The "New Energy Equipment" sector is injecting significant green energy capabilities into the global market [3] - Chinese "Industrial Robots" are increasingly entering global production facilities, while "Home Appliances" are experiencing explosive sales worldwide [5] Group 2: Biopharmaceuticals - Chinese "Innovative Drugs" are transitioning from a "follower" position to a "leader" in the global pharmaceutical landscape [7] Group 3: Future Industries - Chinese advancements in "Artificial Intelligence" and "Humanoid Robots" are making strides on the international stage [9] - The "Commercial Space" sector is pursuing ambitious goals in space exploration [11] - The "Low-altitude Economy" is positioning China as a global leader in this emerging market [13] Group 4: Consumer and Service Exports - Chinese "Smart Home" products are becoming integrated into overseas households, enhancing global consumer experiences [15] - The "IP Trendy Toys" sector is showcasing the charm of Chinese culture to international audiences [17] Group 5: Financial and Capital Markets - The Chinese "Financial Capital Market" is gaining prominence, highlighting its potential for international investment [19] - "Cross-border E-commerce" is facilitating the entry of "Chinese Quality Goods" into households around the world [19] Conclusion - By 2025, China's outbound ventures are set to open a new chapter, characterized by technological advancements and mutual trust [21]
机构预测2026年泰国出口总值将萎缩1.2%
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-10 01:12
Group 1: Export Forecasts - Thailand's total export value is expected to shrink by 1.2% in 2026, primarily due to the potential expansion of U.S. tariff measures and a slowing global trade outlook [1] - The export growth to major markets is projected to slow down, with key products experiencing declines [1] Group 2: Electronic Products - The export value of Thailand's electronic products is anticipated to decrease by approximately 3.1% in 2026, mainly due to pressures in the U.S. market, particularly for integrated circuits and semiconductor products facing tariff risks under Section 232 [1] - Other electronic products, such as hard disk drives and mobile phone components, are also expected to see a slowdown after previous export acceleration [1] Group 3: Home Appliances - Thailand's home appliance export value is forecasted to decline by 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to a slowdown in air conditioner and refrigerator exports, partly because some production bases have shifted from Thailand to Vietnam [1] Group 4: Automotive and Parts - The export value of Thailand's automotive sector is expected to shrink by 3.0% in 2026, driven by increasing competition from Chinese products [1] - Additionally, stricter carbon emission and safety standards in Australia, a key export market, pose further challenges for Thai automotive exports [1] - The automotive parts exports to the U.S. are predicted to be significantly impacted by Section 232 import tariffs [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Thailand's agricultural product export value is projected to decrease by 1.4% in 2026, mainly due to stable prices and intensified global market competition, particularly with rice exports facing pressure from India's expanding exports [2] - Agricultural production is also expected to decline due to a shift from favorable La Niña conditions in 2025 to a neutral state, potentially leading to water shortages for agriculture [2] Group 6: Agro-Industrial Products - The export value of Thailand's agro-industrial products is expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate will slow to 1.0% in 2026 [3]
一起“开箱”,解锁中国企业出海新图景!
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2026-01-10 00:19
Group 1: Manufacturing and Technology Exports - Chinese "New Energy Vehicles" are rapidly expanding in global markets [1] - Chinese "New Energy Equipment" is contributing significantly to green energy initiatives [3] - Chinese "Home Appliances" are experiencing explosive sales worldwide [5] - Chinese "Industrial Robots" are increasingly integrated into global production facilities [7] Group 2: Biopharmaceuticals and Future Industries - Chinese "Innovative Drugs" are transitioning from a follower to a leader in the global market [9] - Chinese "Artificial Intelligence and Humanoid Robots" are making strides internationally [11] - Chinese "Commercial Space" ventures are pursuing ambitious goals in aerospace [13] - Chinese "Low-altitude Economy" is positioning itself as a global leader [15] Group 3: Consumer and Service Exports - Chinese "Smart Home Products" are becoming part of overseas households [17] - Chinese "IP Toys" are gaining popularity in international markets [19] - Chinese "Cross-border E-commerce" is facilitating the entry of "Chinese Good Products" into homes worldwide [21] Group 4: Financial and Capital Markets - Chinese "Financial Capital Markets" are showcasing significant growth and potential [23] Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2025, China's outbound ventures are set to enter a new chapter, emphasizing technology, brand trust, and collaborative growth [25]
AI主线持续火热!芯原股份涨超4%,科创人工智能ETF汇添富(589560)涨2%冲击两连阳!利好政策密集来袭,行情将如何演绎?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 05:25
1月9日,A股市场震荡上行,沪指盘中时隔10年重回4100点,截至11:12,科创人工智能ETF汇添富(589560)涨2%,冲击两连阳! | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 688521 | 芯原股份 | 电子 | 4.09% | 9.94% | | 2 | 688008 | 澜起科技 | 电子 | -0.06% | 9.72% | | 3 | 688111 | 金山办公 | 计算机 | 1.67% | 9.65% | | 4 | 688256 | 寒武纪-U | 电子 | -0.37% | 9.44% | | ਟ | 688169 | 石头科技 | 家用电器 | 0.24% | 5.66% | | 6 | 688382 | 复旦微电 | 电子 | 2.81% | 5.48% | | 7 | 688099 | 昌昌股份 | 电子 | -1.98% | 5.35% | | 8 | 688608 | 恒玄科技 | 电子 | -0.58% | 4.75% | | ਰੇ | 688568 ...
海尔智家1月8日斥资247.57万元回购9.5万股A股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 12:52
海尔智家(600690)(06690)发布公告,于2026年1月8日斥资247.57万元回购9.5万股A股。 ...