Core Insights - The fiscal revenue in China for the first ten months of 2025 shows a steady recovery, with public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year-on-year, while expenditure growth has slowed down [1] - Tax revenue has been a significant contributor to the overall revenue increase, with notable growth in various tax categories [3] - Infrastructure-related spending is expected to rebound due to new policy measures and increased project implementation [5][6] Revenue Performance - Total public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7% [1] - Non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1%, amounting to 3.31 trillion yuan [1] - Major tax categories showed growth: VAT increased by 4%, consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [3] Sectoral Tax Contributions - The equipment manufacturing and modern service sectors demonstrated strong tax revenue performance [4] - Specific sectors such as computer and communication equipment manufacturing saw a tax revenue increase of 12.7%, while scientific research and technical services grew by 14.8% [4] Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Key areas such as social security, education, and health saw significant expenditure increases, with social security and employment spending growing by 9.3% [5] - Infrastructure-related spending in agriculture, forestry, and water management decreased by 9%, although the decline rate has narrowed [5] Future Outlook - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to support infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter and early next year [6] - The central government has allocated additional funds for project construction, indicating a proactive adjustment in response to slowing infrastructure growth [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights a recovery in fiscal revenue, with a steady increase in public budget income and a slowdown in expenditure growth, while maintaining high growth in social welfare-related spending [2][4]. Fiscal Revenue Recovery - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 15.34 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.7%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous nine months [2]. - Non-tax revenue decreased by 3.1% to 3.31 trillion yuan [2]. Tax Revenue Growth - Major tax categories showed significant growth: domestic VAT increased by 4%, domestic consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and personal income tax by 11.5%, with respective increases of 0.4, 0.2, 1.1, and 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [4]. - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable increase of 88.1%, totaling 162.9 billion yuan, driven by a recovery in market confidence and A-share trading volume [4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries demonstrated strong tax revenue performance, with notable increases in specific sectors: computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 12.7%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 7.9%, scientific research and technical services by 14.8%, and cultural, sports, and entertainment industries by 5.7% [5]. Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [7]. - Key areas such as social security and employment, education, health, science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, and cultural tourism saw substantial increases in spending, with growth rates of 9.3%, 4.7%, 2.4%, 5.7%, 7%, and 2.5% respectively [7]. Infrastructure Spending Outlook - Infrastructure-related spending in agriculture, forestry, and water management declined by 9%, although the rate of decline narrowed by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [8]. - Analysts expect a rebound in fiscal infrastructure spending, supported by new policy financial tools and additional allocations for project construction [8].

Group 1 - Tax revenue in China showed a significant recovery, with total public budget revenue reaching approximately 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue specifically amounted to about 15.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [1] - The growth in tax revenue has been driven by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a low base from the previous year, with tax revenue growth rates of 8.7% in September and 8.6% in October [1][2] Group 2 - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 162.9 billion yuan, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 88.1% [2] - Personal income tax collected was approximately 1.3363 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2] - Several industries, including computer and communication equipment manufacturing, saw tax revenue growth rates of 12.7%, 7.9%, and 14.8% respectively [2] Group 3 - Non-tax revenue for the first ten months of the year was about 3.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.1% [3] - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue dropping by 7.4% [3] Group 4 - Total public budget expenditure reached approximately 22.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [4] - Expenditure related to social security and employment was about 3.77 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.3% year-on-year [4] - The government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local fiscal capacity and effective investment [4]

Economic Overview - The national economy of China showed steady growth in October 2025, with a stable employment situation and ongoing transformation and upgrading trends [1] - The industrial production maintained resilience, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of the mining industry grew by 4.5%, manufacturing increased by 4.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries rose by 5.4% [1] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors were significant contributors to growth, with increases of 8.0% and 7.2% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service industry also demonstrated robust performance, with business activity indices in sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, accommodation, and cultural and sports entertainment remaining above 60.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46.291 billion yuan in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.16% [2] - Consumer prices turned from a decline to an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 0.2%, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Economic Overview - In October, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, service production index rising by 4.6%, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 2.9% [1][10]. Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month. The mining industry grew by 4.5%, manufacturing by 4.9%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 5.4% [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong growth, with increases of 8.0% and 7.2% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points [3]. - The profit of industrial enterprises from January to September reached 53,732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (13.0%), leasing and business services (8.2%), and finance (5.6%) [4]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2%, indicating stable activity levels [4]. Retail Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5]. - Online retail sales amounted to 127,916 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [5]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. However, manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% [6]. - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% [6]. Trade and Exports - In October, the total import and export value was 37,028 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [7]. - From January to October, the total import and export value reached 373,090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [7]. Employment and Prices - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [9]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [9]. Conclusion - Overall, the national economy in October showed stability and progress, with ongoing structural adjustments and challenges ahead. The focus remains on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment and market expectations [10].

Core Viewpoint - In October, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee with Xi Jinping at its core, the national economy maintained overall stability and progressed steadily, with improvements in employment, market expectations, and price levels, while promoting the construction of a unified national market and facilitating domestic and international dual circulation [1]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 7.2%, both outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points respectively [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was recorded at 49.0, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [2]. Group 2: Service Industry - The service production index increased by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services at 13.0% [3]. - The business activity index for the service industry was at 50.2, indicating stable activity levels [3]. - For the first ten months, the service production index grew by 5.7% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 127,916 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [4]. - The growth rate of service retail sales accelerated to 5.3% year-on-year in the first ten months [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [5]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, while real estate development investment fell by 14.7% [5]. - High-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant investment growth of 32.7% and 19.7% respectively [5]. Group 5: Trade and Employment - In October, the total value of goods imports and exports was 37,028 billion yuan, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [6]. - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1% in October, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [7]. - The average working hours for employed persons were recorded at 48.4 hours per week [7]. Group 6: Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [9]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting a slight acceleration in inflationary pressures [8].

Group 1: Industrial Production and Economic Trends - Industrial production showed signs of slowdown in October, with expected year-on-year growth of 5.3% for industrial added value [2] - Manufacturing demand has weakened due to pre-holiday demand release and international trade uncertainties, with the new orders index dropping to 48.8% [3] - The service sector experienced an increase in activity, with the business activity index rising to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related consumption [3] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Spending - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in October, a slight decline from the previous 3% [4] - The effectiveness of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has diminished, compounded by reduced fiscal support, leading to pressure on retail sales [5] - The restaurant and alcohol retail sectors are expected to remain under pressure due to regulatory measures affecting public spending [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by 0.9% year-on-year from January to October, with manufacturing investment growth at 4.0% and real estate investment down by 14.1% [7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve slowly, with recent developments in US-China trade negotiations potentially boosting investor confidence [8] - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize, with new policy financial tools fully deployed, indicating a potential recovery in construction activity [12] Group 4: Export and Trade Dynamics - October export growth is expected to be 3.2%, with imports at 1.6%, reflecting a shift towards non-US markets [17] - China's share in non-US markets has increased, with significant growth in exports to Africa and Latin America [18] - The trade cycle between investment and exports to non-US countries is strengthening, particularly in manufacturing sectors [19] Group 5: Price Trends and Inflation - Consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase to 0.1% year-on-year, while producer price index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [20] - Pork prices remain weak, contributing to overall low inflationary pressures, while oil prices are also under pressure due to global supply dynamics [21][22] - Core CPI is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend, supported by holiday consumption and promotional activities [22] Group 6: Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 5.1%, with ongoing government efforts to support job creation for graduates [24] - Employment policies are focused on stabilizing job opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups such as migrant workers [24][25] Group 7: Financial Data and Monetary Policy - Social financing is projected to increase by 750 billion, with a decline in new loans expected at 1 trillion [26][27] - The M2 money supply growth is anticipated to decrease to 8.1%, reflecting weak demand for credit and a shift towards non-bank financial products [28] - Future monetary policy is expected to balance financial stability with support for the real economy, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than aggressive tightening [29]

Group 1: PMI Analysis - October manufacturing PMI declined to 49% from 49.8%, reaching the level of April 2025[6] - The production sector showed significant decline, with production and procurement PMI components experiencing large month-on-month drops[6] - Service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday effects, particularly in transportation and hospitality sectors[6] Group 2: External Demand and Policy Impact - New export orders PMI fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, indicating persistent external demand pressure[6] - Despite a 10% reduction in tariffs on certain goods, the short-term improvement in foreign trade orders is expected to be limited due to prior over-expectation[6] - New government policies are beginning to show effects on domestic demand, with consumer goods PMI at 50.1%, indicating resilience compared to high-tech sectors[6] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - A total of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been fully allocated, targeting sectors like digital economy and infrastructure[6] - Although construction PMI slightly decreased to 49.1%, new orders and business activity expectations PMI rose significantly, suggesting upcoming demand growth[6] - The overall economic stabilization is anticipated as external shocks are gradually absorbed and domestic demand expands[6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China experienced a decline in October, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in production and market demand, while the non-manufacturing sector showed slight improvement with a PMI of 50.1% [2][3][4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points, marking the first contraction since April [3] - The new orders index decreased to 48.8%, reflecting a decline in market demand [3] - Seasonal factors, including the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with historical data showing a pattern of decreases in October [3][4] - Despite the overall decline, certain industries such as agricultural processing, automotive, and aerospace maintained production and new orders indices above 52.0%, indicating robust activity [4][5] External Demand and Trade Impact - The new export orders index fell by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, highlighting the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and Chinese exports [4] Structural Highlights in Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed resilience, with their respective PMIs at 50.5% and 50.2%, indicating continued expansion [5] - Large enterprises reported stable performance, with production and new orders indices remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion, with significant growth in sectors related to consumer spending and infrastructure [6][7] - The service sector, particularly in transportation and hospitality, saw high activity levels, driven by holiday consumption and promotional events [6][7] - The construction sector experienced a temporary decline, but indicators suggest a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment due to recent policy measures [7] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - Recent fiscal policies, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government debt issuance, are expected to support infrastructure investment and stabilize economic activity [7][8] - The overall economic activity is anticipated to remain resilient, with macroeconomic policies expected to take effect and further consolidate the foundation for stable economic operation [8]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for October is at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion in the service sector [1][5] - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting overall stability in production and business operations [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for seven consecutive months, matching the longest stretch since August 2015 [2] - Key sub-indices such as production index (49.7%), new orders index (48.8%), and raw material inventory index (47.3%) all fell below the critical point, indicating weakened manufacturing activity [2][3] - The new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, reflecting reduced demand [3] Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively, continuing a downward trend for two months [3][4] - The decline in price indices is attributed to weakened downstream consumer demand and reduced upward pressure from upstream raw material prices [4] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating a recovery in service sector activity, driven by holiday effects [5] - Industries closely related to consumer travel, such as rail and air transport, showed strong performance with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in activity for three consecutive months, primarily influenced by the real estate sector [6] - Despite the decline, the business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, suggesting improved market outlook among construction firms [6] Policy Outlook - There are expectations for increased policy support to stabilize market conditions, with potential monetary policy easing on the horizon [7][8] - The anticipated impact of new policy measures, including significant financial tools for investment, may help the construction sector recover [7] Economic Trends - The ongoing demand contraction in the market is leading to an imbalance in the macroeconomic landscape, with supply exceeding demand [7] - Analysts emphasize the need for stronger counter-cyclical economic policies to stimulate demand and support business investment [7]