Economic Overview - The national economy of China showed steady growth in October 2025, with a stable employment situation and ongoing transformation and upgrading trends [1] - The industrial production maintained resilience, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of the mining industry grew by 4.5%, manufacturing increased by 4.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries rose by 5.4% [1] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors were significant contributors to growth, with increases of 8.0% and 7.2% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service industry also demonstrated robust performance, with business activity indices in sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, accommodation, and cultural and sports entertainment remaining above 60.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46.291 billion yuan in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.16% [2] - Consumer prices turned from a decline to an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 0.2%, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Economic Overview - In October, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, service production index rising by 4.6%, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 2.9% [1][10]. Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month. The mining industry grew by 4.5%, manufacturing by 4.9%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 5.4% [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong growth, with increases of 8.0% and 7.2% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points [3]. - The profit of industrial enterprises from January to September reached 53,732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (13.0%), leasing and business services (8.2%), and finance (5.6%) [4]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2%, indicating stable activity levels [4]. Retail Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5]. - Online retail sales amounted to 127,916 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [5]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. However, manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% [6]. - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% [6]. Trade and Exports - In October, the total import and export value was 37,028 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [7]. - From January to October, the total import and export value reached 373,090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [7]. Employment and Prices - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [9]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [9]. Conclusion - Overall, the national economy in October showed stability and progress, with ongoing structural adjustments and challenges ahead. The focus remains on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment and market expectations [10].

10月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.6%。分行业看，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，金融业生产指数同比分别增长13.0%、 8.2%、5.6%，分别快于服务业生产指数8.4、3.6、1.0个百分点。1-10月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.7%。1-9月份，规模以上服务业企业营业收入同 比增长7.6%。10月份，服务业商务活动指数为50.2%，服务业业务活动预期指数为56.1%。其中，铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、住宿、文化体育娱乐等行业 商务活动指数位于60.0%及以上高位景气区间。 三、市场销售规模扩大，服务零售增长加快 10月份，社会消费品零售总额46291亿元，同比增长2.9%；环比增长0.16%。按经营单位所在地分，城镇消费品零售额40021亿元，同比增长2.7%；乡村消费 品零售额6270亿元，增长4.1%。按消费类型分，商品零售额41092亿元，增长2.8%；餐饮收入5199亿元，增长3.8%。基本生活类和部分升级类消费较快增 长，限额以上单位粮油食品类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售额同比分别增长9.1%、23.2%、13.5%、10.1%。1-10月份 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production and Economic Trends - Industrial production showed signs of slowdown in October, with expected year-on-year growth of 5.3% for industrial added value [2] - Manufacturing demand has weakened due to pre-holiday demand release and international trade uncertainties, with the new orders index dropping to 48.8% [3] - The service sector experienced an increase in activity, with the business activity index rising to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related consumption [3] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Spending - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in October, a slight decline from the previous 3% [4] - The effectiveness of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has diminished, compounded by reduced fiscal support, leading to pressure on retail sales [5] - The restaurant and alcohol retail sectors are expected to remain under pressure due to regulatory measures affecting public spending [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by 0.9% year-on-year from January to October, with manufacturing investment growth at 4.0% and real estate investment down by 14.1% [7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve slowly, with recent developments in US-China trade negotiations potentially boosting investor confidence [8] - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize, with new policy financial tools fully deployed, indicating a potential recovery in construction activity [12] Group 4: Export and Trade Dynamics - October export growth is expected to be 3.2%, with imports at 1.6%, reflecting a shift towards non-US markets [17] - China's share in non-US markets has increased, with significant growth in exports to Africa and Latin America [18] - The trade cycle between investment and exports to non-US countries is strengthening, particularly in manufacturing sectors [19] Group 5: Price Trends and Inflation - Consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase to 0.1% year-on-year, while producer price index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [20] - Pork prices remain weak, contributing to overall low inflationary pressures, while oil prices are also under pressure due to global supply dynamics [21][22] - Core CPI is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend, supported by holiday consumption and promotional activities [22] Group 6: Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 5.1%, with ongoing government efforts to support job creation for graduates [24] - Employment policies are focused on stabilizing job opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups such as migrant workers [24][25] Group 7: Financial Data and Monetary Policy - Social financing is projected to increase by 750 billion, with a decline in new loans expected at 1 trillion [26][27] - The M2 money supply growth is anticipated to decrease to 8.1%, reflecting weak demand for credit and a shift towards non-bank financial products [28] - Future monetary policy is expected to balance financial stability with support for the real economy, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than aggressive tightening [29]

Group 1: PMI Analysis - October manufacturing PMI declined to 49% from 49.8%, reaching the level of April 2025[6] - The production sector showed significant decline, with production and procurement PMI components experiencing large month-on-month drops[6] - Service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday effects, particularly in transportation and hospitality sectors[6] Group 2: External Demand and Policy Impact - New export orders PMI fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, indicating persistent external demand pressure[6] - Despite a 10% reduction in tariffs on certain goods, the short-term improvement in foreign trade orders is expected to be limited due to prior over-expectation[6] - New government policies are beginning to show effects on domestic demand, with consumer goods PMI at 50.1%, indicating resilience compared to high-tech sectors[6] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - A total of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been fully allocated, targeting sectors like digital economy and infrastructure[6] - Although construction PMI slightly decreased to 49.1%, new orders and business activity expectations PMI rose significantly, suggesting upcoming demand growth[6] - The overall economic stabilization is anticipated as external shocks are gradually absorbed and domestic demand expands[6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China experienced a decline in October, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in production and market demand, while the non-manufacturing sector showed slight improvement with a PMI of 50.1% [2][3][4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points, marking the first contraction since April [3] - The new orders index decreased to 48.8%, reflecting a decline in market demand [3] - Seasonal factors, including the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with historical data showing a pattern of decreases in October [3][4] - Despite the overall decline, certain industries such as agricultural processing, automotive, and aerospace maintained production and new orders indices above 52.0%, indicating robust activity [4][5] External Demand and Trade Impact - The new export orders index fell by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, highlighting the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and Chinese exports [4] Structural Highlights in Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed resilience, with their respective PMIs at 50.5% and 50.2%, indicating continued expansion [5] - Large enterprises reported stable performance, with production and new orders indices remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion, with significant growth in sectors related to consumer spending and infrastructure [6][7] - The service sector, particularly in transportation and hospitality, saw high activity levels, driven by holiday consumption and promotional events [6][7] - The construction sector experienced a temporary decline, but indicators suggest a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment due to recent policy measures [7] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - Recent fiscal policies, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government debt issuance, are expected to support infrastructure investment and stabilize economic activity [7][8] - The overall economic activity is anticipated to remain resilient, with macroeconomic policies expected to take effect and further consolidate the foundation for stable economic operation [8]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for October is at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion in the service sector [1][5] - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting overall stability in production and business operations [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for seven consecutive months, matching the longest stretch since August 2015 [2] - Key sub-indices such as production index (49.7%), new orders index (48.8%), and raw material inventory index (47.3%) all fell below the critical point, indicating weakened manufacturing activity [2][3] - The new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, reflecting reduced demand [3] Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively, continuing a downward trend for two months [3][4] - The decline in price indices is attributed to weakened downstream consumer demand and reduced upward pressure from upstream raw material prices [4] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating a recovery in service sector activity, driven by holiday effects [5] - Industries closely related to consumer travel, such as rail and air transport, showed strong performance with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in activity for three consecutive months, primarily influenced by the real estate sector [6] - Despite the decline, the business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, suggesting improved market outlook among construction firms [6] Policy Outlook - There are expectations for increased policy support to stabilize market conditions, with potential monetary policy easing on the horizon [7][8] - The anticipated impact of new policy measures, including significant financial tools for investment, may help the construction sector recover [7] Economic Trends - The ongoing demand contraction in the market is leading to an imbalance in the macroeconomic landscape, with supply exceeding demand [7] - Analysts emphasize the need for stronger counter-cyclical economic policies to stimulate demand and support business investment [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from September [1] - PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, showing declines of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2: Key Industries - The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The high-energy-consuming industries had a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a decline in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions, particularly in transportation, accommodation, and entertainment sectors, which saw indices above 60.0% [3] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a slight decline in construction activity [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector continues to stabilize, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [4] - The effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies is expected to strengthen domestic demand in the fourth quarter, supporting the achievement of annual economic and social development goals [4]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49% from 49.8%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.1% from 50%[6][1] - The decline in October PMI is attributed to weak demand and high inventory levels impacting production indices significantly[1][7] - The production index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, marking a return to contraction territory for the first time in six months[1][7] Group 2: Key Issues Affecting PMI - The production index's significant drop is linked to the end of a "production rush" and high inventory levels, which constrained the PMI's upward movement in October[2][10] - New export orders saw a notable decline of 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, the second-lowest point this year, influenced by fluctuating tariff policies[2][13] - Domestic demand remains resilient, but investment demand has weakened due to accelerated debt reduction, impacting high-energy industries and construction PMI[3][17] Group 3: Sector Performance - The high-energy sector's PMI fell to 47.3%, reflecting strong pressure on real estate and infrastructure investment due to debt reduction measures[3][17] - The construction PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, although the new orders index increased by 3.7 percentage points to 45.9%[4][40] - Service sector PMI improved slightly to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities[4][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing decline and non - manufacturing slight increase." The manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally, presenting a "weak supply and demand" pattern. Due to factors such as pre - holiday demand release, international environment complexity, and global economic slowdown, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally [3][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 10 - Month PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value and below the seasonal level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value, at the critical point [3][9]. 10 - Month Manufacturing Situation Supply and Demand - The production index in October was 49.7%, a 2.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, below the boom - bust line and weaker than the seasonal performance. The new order index was 48.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in demand. The new export order index was 45.9%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, the second - lowest of the year, due to global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties [4][10]. Price - The main raw material purchase price index was 52.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has been in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 47.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The gap between raw material prices and ex - factory prices widened to 5 percentage points, indicating continued pressure on the profits of mid - and downstream processing industries [4][10]. 10 - Month Non - Manufacturing Situation Services - The services PMI was 50.2%, remaining in the expansion range. Driven by holiday effects, industries related to travel and consumption had high business activity indices. The postal industry also saw accelerated growth due to promotional activities. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises [5][11]. Construction - The construction PMI in October was 49.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, still below the boom - bust line. However, the business activity expectation index was 56.0%, a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, showing continued improvement in the market development expectations of construction enterprises [6][12].