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20250923申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250923
20250923申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜: | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌: | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜:夜盘铜价收低0.07%。精矿供应延续紧张状态,冶炼利润承压,但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示,电力行业延续正增长,光伏抢装同比 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 陡增,未来增速可能放缓;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续 | | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织,铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌:夜盘锌价收低0.25%。锌精矿加工费总体回升,冶炼利润转正,冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长,汽车产销正增长,家电产量增速趋缓,地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜,锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师:李野 | | | | 从业资格号: ...
宏观扰动下降,产业支撑上升:铜铝周报-20250922
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:15
有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 9 月 22 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观扰动下降,产业支撑上升 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心观点 铜:宏观扰动下降,产业支撑上升,铜价企稳回升 上周铜价冲高回落,这主要是由于美联储降息利好兑现前后,短 期多头了结意愿较强,沪铜减仓下行明显。此外,伦铜触及年内高 位,有较强的技术压力,这也是多头了结意愿上升。周五以来多头了 结告一段落,铜价企稳回升,夜盘维持强势,沪铜站上 8 万关口,伦 铜触及 1 万美元关口。产业层面,铜价高位下挫叠加产业旺季,下游 补库意愿上升,给予铜价支撑。短期议息会议结束,宏观扰动下降, 产业 ...
有色套利早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 19, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,990 (domestic) and 9,871 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 79,650 (domestic) and 9,943 (LME) with a ratio of 8.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10, and the profit is - 357.73 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,020 (domestic) and 2,944 (LME) with a ratio of 7.48; March price is 22,070 (domestic) and 2,920 (LME) with a ratio of 5.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.55, and the profit is - 3,166.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,780 (domestic) and 2,678 (LME) with a ratio of 7.76; March price is 20,785 (domestic) and 2,673 (LME) with a ratio of 7.79. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.37, and the profit is - 1,631.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,900 (domestic) and 15,087 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, and the profit is - 2,181.20 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17,000 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.63; March price is 17,175 (domestic) and 2,011 (LME) with a ratio of 10.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.81, and the profit is - 359.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 980, - 910, - 980, - 1000 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 505, 908, 1319, 1731 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 235, - 210, - 175, - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 125, - 125, - 135, - 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 332, 449, 565 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 65, 75, 65, 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 680, - 450, - 310, 40 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 220, and the theoretical spread is 5583 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 610 and - 370 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 549 and 848 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 260 and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 201 and 308 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 100 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 189 and 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: The Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.61, 3.83, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.41, 3.70, 4.96, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]
有色商品日报(2025 年 9 月 18 日)-20250918
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 08:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with mixed signals causing increased market volatility. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all decreased. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Overall, copper prices can still be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline may lead to downstream restocking opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with a 0.88% increase in AO2601, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking. After the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are further supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to run strongly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel was flat, and沪镍 fell 0.14%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel prices rose rapidly before and now face correction pressure, but overseas macro situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, inventory changes, and weak downstream demand were the main factors affecting copper prices. Despite short - term caution, long - term prospects are relatively positive [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina's cost support, aluminum ingot de - stocking, and scrap aluminum price support are the key factors for the aluminum market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Supply disruptions, price increases, and changes in inventory and demand in different sectors are the main factors influencing nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices generally declined, with some inventory changes. For example, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 525 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with some minor declines in lead ore prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined slightly, and alumina inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and nickel inventory increased in some areas [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased slightly, and social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased slightly, and LmeS3 decreased by 2.1% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [47][48][49].
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250918
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's September interest - rate meeting is approaching. The market is pricing in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar index is weakening. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season in China is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally. However, the upward space still requires positive resonance between fundamentals and macro factors. The realization of rate cuts will affect the subsequent market rhythm. If the rate cut is 25bp as expected, there may be profit - taking; if it exceeds expectations, the market may be stronger[12][13]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving price center, and it is recommended to buy on dips; zinc prices are in a range - bound pattern, and it is advisable to be slightly bullish on dips; the aluminum industry chain is in a complex situation, and different products have different strategies such as temporary observation, short - position holding, and long - position reduction[3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The "central bank super - week" is here. The Fed's rate - cut expectation trading may continue, and non - ferrous metals are fluctuating strongly. China's August economic data shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The US consumer confidence is at a four - month low, further consolidating the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month[12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Different Metals**: - **Copper**: The price center is expected to move up. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options[3][14]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern. Consider being slightly bullish on dips, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23200 and a lower support range of 21600 - 21800[4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is recommended to observe temporarily, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500; for alumina, short positions can be held cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900; for recycled aluminum alloy, long positions can be reduced, with an upper pressure range of 20800 - 21000 and a lower support range of 20000 - 20300[5][17]. - **Tin**: Observe before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, with an upper pressure range of 280000 - 290000 and a lower support range of 260000 - 265000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options[6][7]. - **Lead**: Long positions can be held, with a short - term support at 16700 - 16800 and an upper pressure at 17400 - 17500. A wide - range option straddle strategy can also be considered[8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, adopt a dip - buying strategy, with an upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan; for stainless steel, be slightly bullish on dips, with a support at 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure at 13000 - 13200[9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80560 with a decline of 0.40%, zinc closed at 22280 with an increase of 0.11%, etc.[19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal contracts have different net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors. For example, the alumina (AO2601) contract has a 1.81% increase, with a strong short position of the main force, and is affected by non - main - force funds[21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80690 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 22180 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%[23][25]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are presented for each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes[27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the Shanghai - copper and London - copper premium/discount[61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metal options are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility[77].
20250917申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250917
20250917申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜: | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌: | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜:夜盘铜价收涨0.02%。精矿供应延续紧张状态,冶炼利润承压,但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示,电力行业延续正增长,光伏抢装同比 | | | 铜 | 陡增,未来增速可能放缓;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续 | 可能短期区 | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织,铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌:夜盘锌价收涨0.16%。锌精矿加工费总体回升,冶炼利润转正,冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长,汽车产销正增长,家电产量增速趋缓,地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜,锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师:李野 | | | | 从业资格号: ...
20250916申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250916
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, and weak real estate [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and weak real estate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV installations (future growth may slow), automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 81,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,189 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 61.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 153,950 tons with a daily decrease of 225 tons [2]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - **Price Outlook**: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,235 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,982 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 26.76 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 50,525 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,925 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,705 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 4.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 485,275 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,500 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 460 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 185.68 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 225,084 tons with a daily increase of 1,932 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 47.54 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 229,575 tons with a daily decrease of 3,050 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 275,090 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 34,680 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 132.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,620 tons with a daily increase of 235 tons [2].
宝城期货有色日报-20250915
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 09:23
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜震荡整理 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价早盘探底回升,日内震荡上行,整体持仓量小幅上升, 主力期价尾盘再度触及 8.1 万关口。宏观层面,海外降息预期持续升 温,叠加 9 月议席会议临近,利好铜价。产业层面,周一库存小幅上 升,利空期价。技术上,关注 8.1 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘探底回升,日内震荡运行,持仓量变化不大。宏观 层面,海外降息预期持续升温,叠加 9 月议席会议临近,利好铝价。 产业层面,周一社库小幅上升,利空期价。 ...
有色日报:宏观回暖,有色普涨-20250912
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper increased in position and rose, standing above the 80,000 mark, and LME copper stood above the $10,000 mark. Today, copper prices maintained a strong operation, with the position volume continuing to rise. The inflation in the US in August met expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the overall non - ferrous metals rose. The domestic industrial peak season provided stronger support for the futures price. Technically, the futures price increased in position and rose above the 80,000 mark, with strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, and maintained a strong operation today, with the main futures price standing above the 21,000 mark. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. There was a concentrated pick - up phenomenon in LME warehouses, leading to a tight regional supply, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metals sector. Technically, the aluminum price broke through the oscillation high since July, with strong upward momentum [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased in position and fell. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. The domestic nickel ore port inventory and the SHFE nickel inventory continued to rise, which was negative for the nickel price. In the short term, the macro - environment promoted the general rise of non - ferrous metals, and the nickel price might have a low - level rebound trend. The willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions was strong. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the August high [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Enterprises that reduced or stopped production due to environmental inspections in early September have fully resumed production. After the copper price rose this week, the supply in the recycled copper raw material market increased. The operating rate of SMM's scrap - produced anode plate enterprises this week was 51.89%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise by 3.84 percentage points to 55.73% next week [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 12, the prices of refined nickel in the Shanghai market were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 124,250 - 124,450 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 122,550 - 122,650 yuan/ton, up 1,720 yuan/ton; nickel beans were 124,550 - 124,650 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]
宝城期货有色日报-20250911
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Copper Futures**: The copper price oscillated above 80,000 today with an increase in open interest. Macroeconomically, the US August PPI data was much lower than market expectations, easing wholesale inflation pressure and increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which is positive for copper prices. Industrially, the domestic industrial peak season is providing stronger support for futures prices. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro situation and the industry entering the peak season, the futures price is expected to be bullish. Technically, the futures price increased in volume and open interest, breaking through the 80,000 mark with strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price increased significantly in volume and open interest today, with the main futures price breaking through 20,900 and approaching the late - July high. Macroeconomically, the increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the non - ferrous metal sector. Industrially, SMM reported a concentrated pick - up of goods in LME warehouses, leading to regional supply tightness, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metal sector. Technically, it is approaching the high since July, and technical pressure should be monitored [6]. - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom today, showing an overall oscillating trend. Macroeconomically, the increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the non - ferrous metal sector. Industrially, the domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory have been continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. With macro - level benefits and industrial weakness, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to September 4 and a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to September 8 [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 11, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was in the range of 120,200 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][15][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum average premium and discount, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [23][29][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][43].