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贵州茅台(600519):公司信息更新报告:收入业绩略超预期,彰显龙头韧性
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 11:13
食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 投资评级:买入(维持) | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 1,547.00 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 1,910.00/1,245.8 | | | 3 | | 总市值(亿元) | 19,433.38 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 19,433.38 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.56 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.56 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 15.23 | 股价走势图 数据来源:聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 贵州茅台 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年营收利润高增,2025 年定调 合 理 积 极 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.7 《锚定全年目标,业绩平稳符合预期 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.10.29 《业绩好于预期,分红方案诚意十足 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.12 贵州茅台(600519.SH) 收入业绩略超预期,彰显龙头韧性 2025 年 05 月 05 日 | ...
古井贡酒:公司信息更新报告:2024年成绩优异,2025年开局良好-20250505
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 01:23
食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 2024 年成绩优异,2025 年开局良好 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级:增持(维持) | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 164.39 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 287.24/139.84 | | 总市值(亿元) | 868.97 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 671.70 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.29 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 4.09 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 39.96 | 股价走势图 数据来源:聚源 -64% -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 古井贡酒 沪深300 相关研究报告 | 张宇光(分析师) | 逄晓娟(分析师) | 张恒玮(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | 2024 年业绩平稳,2025 年 Q1 好于预期,维持" ...
古井贡酒(000596):公司信息更新报告:2024年成绩优异,2025年开局良好
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-02 12:48
食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 2024 年成绩优异,2025 年开局良好 古井贡酒 2024 年实现营收 235.78 亿元,同比+16.41%,实现归母净利润 55.17 亿元,同比+20.22%,其中 Q4 公司实现营收 45.09 亿元,同比+4.85%,实现归 母净利润 7.71 亿元,同比-0.74%。2025Q1 实现营收 91.46 亿元,同比+10.38%, 实现归母净利润 23.3 亿元,同比+12.78%。一季度营收利润好于预期。我们维持 2025-2026 年盈利预测,并新增 2027 年盈利预测,预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 分别为 58.9、66.0、73.8 亿元,同比分别+6.7%、+12.2%、+11.8%,EPS 分别为 11.14、12.49、13.97 元,当前股价对应 PE 分别为 15.4、13.7、12.3 倍,公司对 市场把控能力很强,目前环境以及库存状态只是影响阶段性增速不影响品牌高度 和可持续发展,维持"增持"评级。 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级:增持(维持) | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | - ...
五粮液:公司信息更新报告:开局状态良好,渠道酝酿积极变化-20250502
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-02 12:33
| 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源:聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液(000858.SZ) 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级:买入(维持) 《业绩稳健增长,彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健,核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好,渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光(分析师) 逄晓娟(分析师) 张恒玮(分析师) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec. ...
五粮液(000858):公司信息更新报告:开局状态良好,渠道酝酿积极变化
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-02 12:28
食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液(000858.SZ) 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级:买入(维持) | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源:聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩稳健增长,彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健,核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好,渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
2024Q4+2025Q1中低档酒降速调整,省内洞藏系列势能延续
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-01 01:05
证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 优于大市 2024Q4+2025Q1 中低档酒降速调整,省内洞藏系列势能延续 2024 年收入稳健增长、净利率提升,2024Q4+2025Q1 调整降速。2024 年公司实 现收入 73.44 亿元/同比+8.5%,归母净利润 25.89 亿元/同比+13.4%;2024Q4 收 入 18.30 亿元/同比-5.0%,归母净利润 5.83 亿元/同比-4.9%;2025Q1 收入 20.47 亿元/同比-12.3%,归母净利润 8.29 亿元/同比-9.5%。2024Q4+2025Q1 看,收入 同比-9.0%,净利润同比-7.7%。 2024 年前高后低,洞藏系列增势延续。分产品看,2024 年中高档/普通白酒收入 57.13/12.90 亿元,同比+13.8%/-6.6%;其中中高档酒销量同比+9.3%,吨价同 比+4.1%;预计洞藏系列增势延续,全年仍增长双位数以上,洞 9、洞 6 增速更 快;结构升级推动酒类业务毛利率同比+2.73pcts。分区域看,2024 年省内/省 外市场收入 50.93/19.09 亿元,同比+12.8 ...
泸州老窖(000568):Q1业绩正增,全年基调稳中求进
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 10:16
[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 Q1 业绩正增,全年基调稳中求进 事件: [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年度与 2025Q1 业绩报告。2024 年公司实现营收 311.96 亿元,同比+3.19%;归母/扣非归母净利 134.73/134.00 亿,同比+1.71% /+1.89%。2024Q4 营收 68.93 亿,同比-16.86%;归母/扣非归母净利 18.80/18.35 亿,同比-29.86%/-31.03%。2025Q1 营收 93.52 亿,同比 +1.78%;归母/扣非归母净利 45.93/45.95 亿,同比+0.41%/+0.94%。 点评: 中高档酒产品结构下移与市场投入加大使得均价承压,阶段性停货保 障合理渠道库存。分档次看,2024 年中高档/其他酒类收入分别为 275.85/34.67 亿,同比+2.77%/+7.15%。中高档酒销量/均价分别同比 +14.39%/-10.15%,量增价减主要系国窖维持低速增长、特曲 60 版增速 快于国窖,同时公司加大扫码红包、促销等投入冲减了部分收入。其他 酒类量/ ...
迎驾贡酒(603198):2024Q4+2025Q1中低档酒降速调整,省内洞藏系列势能延续
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-30 07:22
证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 优于大市 2024Q4+2025Q1 中低档酒降速调整,省内洞藏系列势能延续 2024 年收入稳健增长、净利率提升,2024Q4+2025Q1 调整降速。2024 年公司实 现收入 73.44 亿元/同比+8.5%,归母净利润 25.89 亿元/同比+13.4%;2024Q4 收 入 18.30 亿元/同比-5.0%,归母净利润 5.83 亿元/同比-4.9%;2025Q1 收入 20.47 亿元/同比-12.3%,归母净利润 8.29 亿元/同比-9.5%。2024Q4+2025Q1 看,收入 同比-9.0%,净利润同比-7.7%。 2024 年前高后低,洞藏系列增势延续。分产品看,2024 年中高档/普通白酒收入 57.13/12.90 亿元,同比+13.8%/-6.6%;其中中高档酒销量同比+9.3%,吨价同 比+4.1%;预计洞藏系列增势延续,全年仍增长双位数以上,洞 9、洞 6 增速更 快;结构升级推动酒类业务毛利率同比+2.73pcts。分区域看,2024 年省内/省 外市场收入 50.93/19.09 亿元,同比+12.8 ...
古井贡酒:2024年业绩彰显韧性,2025Q1顺利开门红-20250429
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-29 02:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][15]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its 2024 performance with a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 started strong with a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, representing a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and net profit through 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 25.54 billion yuan, 27.63 billion yuan, and 29.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.3%, 8.2%, and 6.6% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, marking a 20.2% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit by 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from the aged raw liquor segment reached 18.09 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17.3% year-on-year, driven by both volume and price increases [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure, with significant contributions from its premium products, particularly in the domestic market [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the lower-priced bottled liquor segment to capture additional market share [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with a focus on marketing activities during key festive periods to boost sales [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 25.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.07 billion yuan, indicating a continued positive outlook despite a slight adjustment in previous forecasts [4][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-600 yuan price range, leveraging its brand strength and distribution channels [4].
泸州老窖(000568):2025Q1录得正增,公司指引3年分红率稳步提升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-28 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][4] - The company has set a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65%/70%/75% of net profit for each year [1] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, which is expected to enhance internal management efficiency and eventually lead to revenue growth as the consumer-centric model is established [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] Product and Market Analysis - The sales of the Guojiao brand exceeded 20 billion yuan, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company is actively expanding both traditional and new sales channels, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 4.2% respectively in 2024 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for liquor business decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the payment price for Guojiao [2] - The company managed to maintain a good level of expense management, with the tax rate and sales expense ratio showing slight increases [2][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 31.7 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, and 35.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.7%, 5.2%, and 6.4% [4][11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.6 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.5%, and 7.1% [4][11]