Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" due to expected overall profit improvement in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming is expected to improve, with a stable pig price and a significant increase in average profit per head for self-bred pigs [4]. - Poultry farming shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices bottoming out and yellow chicken profitability declining, while egg-laying chicks continue to experience high demand [4]. - The pet food sector is projected to maintain high growth, with leading companies showing strong online sales growth, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [4]. - Animal health is recovering, with increased demand for vaccines and improved sales of veterinary preparations [4]. - The seed industry faces challenges with declining corn prices and increased competition, leading to pressure on the performance of leading seed companies [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 is expected to be 14.80 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while the average profit for self-bred pigs is projected at 69.04 CNY/head, recovering from a loss of 24.82 CNY/head in H1 2024 [4]. Poultry Farming - White chicken prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with the average price for commodity broiler chicks at 2.4 CNY/bird, down 21% year-on-year. Yellow chicken prices are also declining, with the average price for Qingjiao chicken at 8.9 CNY/kg, down 19% year-on-year [4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing a growth rate of 17% in online GMV for the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% in the same period of 2024. Leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. show growth rates of 51% and 26%, respectively [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines has increased, with a 15.8% year-on-year rise in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025. Prices for veterinary preparations like Tylosin and Tiamulin have increased by 39.8% and 9.3%, respectively [4]. Seed Industry - The corn seed market is under pressure due to falling corn prices and high competition, leading to a decline in seed prices and performance expectations for leading seed companies [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to regulate breeding sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2025-2026, benefiting the poultry sector and leading feed companies [1][38]. - The report highlights the increasing focus on food security amid frequent extreme weather events and trade tensions, suggesting a strategic shift in the agricultural sector [1]. Group 2: Swine Farming - In the first half of 2025, pig prices remained strong, influenced by slow recovery in breeding sow capacity and proactive market behavior before holidays, leading to a stable price range of 14.0-15.0 yuan/kg [12][15]. - The report anticipates limited growth in pig supply for 2025 due to cautious replenishment by producers, with expectations for pig prices to remain favorable in the second half of 2025 [15][31]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the swine sector include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, noted for their cost advantages and strong performance [38]. Group 3: Poultry Farming - The report is optimistic about the white-feathered chicken breeding sector, expecting a tightening supply of parent stock in the second half of 2025, which will positively impact the market [40][58]. - For yellow-feathered chickens, the report indicates that the current low inventory of parent stock, combined with reduced production costs, sets the stage for potential price recovery and profit expansion [52][58]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Agricultural and Dekang Agriculture, which are expected to benefit from improving market conditions [58]. Group 4: Feed and Veterinary Services - The report notes a recovery in demand for feed products as the breeding sector improves, with a positive outlook for companies like Haida Group, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [6][38]. - The veterinary services sector is also expected to see a recovery in demand, with a focus on leading companies in the animal health space [38]. Group 5: Seed Industry - The report highlights the rising importance of food security, with a focus on the seed industry, particularly in rice and corn, as the sector enters a phase of recovery and growth [38]. - The hybrid rice seed industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, while corn prices are rebounding, encouraging farmer planting enthusiasm [38][58]. - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, which are anticipated to benefit from these trends [38].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector is experiencing continuous compression of profit margins, with a focus on the expected differences in the pig market. As of June 21, the average price of pigs in China was 14.37 CNY/kg, down 0.28% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 92 CNY/head, significantly narrowed from 160 CNY/head in early May. The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.28 kg, showing a slight decrease, while the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 4.74% [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The pig price remains low, and the price of piglets continues to decline. The average price of 7 kg piglets is 443 CNY/head, and 50 kg sows are priced at 1619 CNY/head, with piglet prices down over 200 CNY from their peak. The supply side shows a clear trend of reduced weight, but absolute weights remain historically high [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the low valuation and expected differences in the pig sector, highlighting the profitability of leading companies. The average market value per head for major players like Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture is between 2000-3000 CNY, while others are below 2000 CNY, indicating a relative historical low in valuations [2][16]. Pet Sector - JD.com reported significant growth in the pet sector during the 618 shopping festival, with a 32% year-on-year increase in transaction users and a 39% increase in new pet owners. Domestic brands are gaining a strong foothold, with 7 out of the top 10 pet food brands being Chinese [3][17]. - Pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 139,100 tons exported from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, amounting to 4.175 billion CNY [3][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates. The average price of broiler chicks is 2 CNY/bird, down from the previous week [4][19]. - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a critical variable. The current breeding stock is at a low level, and the demand for yellow chicken is expected to improve in the second half of the year [5][21]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with the average price of egg-laying chicks at 4.0 CNY/bird, down 2% from the previous week [6][22]. Planting Sector - The focus on food security emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in grain production, with a significant contribution from yield improvements. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that yield increases contributed over 80% to grain production growth in 2024 [7][23]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology in enhancing agricultural competitiveness, with recommendations for leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [8][24]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see improved market share and performance. The prices of various fish species are showing mixed trends, with overall fish prices expected to rise due to policy support [9][25]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in the pet health market. Key recommendations include companies like Keqian Biological and Zhongmu Co [10][26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][48]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of white feather broilers is sufficient, while the demand side remains weak, impacting chicken product prices and industry profitability. The expectation is for a recovery in chicken consumption in 2025, driven by domestic demand expansion [6][42]. - The report highlights a cautious replenishment in the breeding sector, with a slight increase in the price of broiler chickens and stable prices for chicks. The average price of white feather chicks is 2.88 yuan per chick, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% but a year-on-year decrease of 8% [8][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In May, the price of broiler chickens slightly increased, while chick prices remained stable. The overall survival rate in breeding is low, leading to a contraction in effective market supply. Terminal consumption continues to be weak, keeping prices low [8][11]. - The average price of white feather broilers in May was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4% year-on-year and 0.074% month-on-month [11]. Production Capacity - As of May 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 23.83 million sets, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month. The average stock of backup parent stock was 15 million sets, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.5% month-on-month [29][36]. - The report notes that the average stock of grandparent stock was 1.48 million sets, up 20.9% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month [28][31]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the profitability of the chick sector has improved, while the losses in broiler farming have significantly reduced. In May, the loss in broiler farming was 0.07 yuan per chicken, a substantial reduction compared to previous periods [36][37]. - The profitability of hatcheries was reported at 0.26 yuan per chick, showing a significant increase month-on-month [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in chicken consumption and improvements in profitability [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in broiler chicken prices, leading to potential capacity reduction in yellow feathered chicken production. The demand side remains weak, resulting in losses for the broiler farming sector. [1][9] - The white feathered chicken sector shows signs of recovery with increased chick sales driven by seasonal restocking, although overall prices remain low. [9][10] - The yellow feathered chicken sector is experiencing losses, which may accelerate the exit of underperforming capacity. [19][24] Summary by Sections White Feathered Chicken - In May, the average price of broiler chicken was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4.1% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average price of chicken products was 8,874 yuan/ton, down 7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The farming sector faced a slight loss of 0.07 yuan per bird. [9][10] - Chick sales increased due to seasonal restocking, with major companies like Yisheng selling 56.61 million chicks, up 11% year-on-year. [10] - The report anticipates a favorable outlook for the white chicken breeding sector, with expected strong demand for quality parent stock in 2025. [11][33] Yellow Feathered Chicken - The average price for fast-growing yellow chickens was 4.33 yuan/jin, down 19% year-on-year, while the price for Xueshan grass chickens was 6.52 yuan/jin, down 14.6% year-on-year. [23] - Major companies reported increased sales volumes, with Wens selling 108 million chickens, up 14.6% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains relatively abundant, leading to price declines. [19][24] - The report suggests that the current low prices and costs in the yellow chicken sector may set the stage for future price increases as supply contracts. [24][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated leading companies like Shengnong Development for white feathered chickens and Lihua Co., Ltd. for yellow feathered chickens, as they are expected to benefit from cost improvements and market recovery. [31][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry [2] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the industry remains stable, with significant improvement in the profitability of the breeding chain. In 2024, the SW Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry achieved total operating revenue of CNY 12,411.05 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 479.85 billion, marking a turnaround from losses in 2023. In Q1 2025, the industry achieved total operating revenue of CNY 2,907.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.09%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching CNY 133.35 billion, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [4][17][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The industry shows overall stable revenue with a significant improvement in profitability. The operating revenue for 2024 was CNY 12,411.05 billion, down 1.67% year-on-year, while the net profit was CNY 479.85 billion, indicating a recovery from losses in 2023. In Q1 2025, the revenue increased by 8.09% year-on-year to CNY 2,907.39 billion, with net profit rising significantly [4][17][22]. 2. Swine Industry - The profitability of the swine industry has improved significantly, with major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe reporting revenue growth of 24.43%, 16.64%, and -27.27% respectively in 2024. The net profit for these companies increased by 519.42%, 244.46%, and 90.50% respectively. In Q1 2025, the top five swine companies saw substantial net profit growth, with Shen Nong Group leading at 6510.85% [30][45]. 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector faced significant pressure, with many companies experiencing revenue declines in 2024. However, Q1 2025 showed signs of recovery, particularly in the chemical drug segment, driven by a rebound in prices of veterinary raw materials. The top three companies in revenue growth for Q1 2025 were Huisheng Biological, Jinhai Biological, and Ruipu Biological, with increases of 20.42%, 7.58%, and 5.97% respectively [49][50]. 4. Feed Industry - The feed industry experienced a decline in total production in 2024, with a 2.10% drop year-on-year. However, revenue began to recover in Q1 2025, with leading companies like Bangji Technology and Haida Group showing significant growth. The average gross profit per ton for major feed companies also improved, with Haida Group achieving a gross profit margin of 12.66% in Q1 2025 [62][65][68]. 5. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector showed varied performance across different categories. In 2024, the top three companies in revenue growth were Xiaoming Co., Lihua Co., and Xiangjia Co., with increases of 16.83%, 15.44%, and 8.06% respectively. The profitability of the poultry industry improved significantly, with Lihua Co. leading in net profit growth at 447.72% [76][78].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming sector is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [2] Core Insights - The poultry sector is expected to see revenue growth in 2024, driven by improved breeding costs, leading to a recovery in profitability. The second half of 2025 is anticipated to witness a rebound in white chicken breeding prices, with significant profit elasticity expected after the peak season for yellow chicken prices. [1][8] Summary by Sections Review: Cost Improvement Drives Profit Recovery - In 2024, the poultry sector's total revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, but the net profit excluding non-recurring items turned positive. In Q4 2024, total revenue increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a 6% increase in revenue year-on-year, despite a 15% quarter-on-quarter decline. [5][8] - The average price of white feather chicken chicks in 2024 was 3.25 CNY per chick, up 4.4% year-on-year, while the average price of chicken products fell by 12.2%. The average price of live chickens dropped by 13.6%. [12][13] - For yellow feather chicken, the average price of snow mountain chickens decreased by 11% year-on-year, and fast-growing chickens saw an 8% decline. Despite falling prices, the reduction in breeding costs led to significant profit improvements for leading companies. [12][13] Outlook: Breeding Sector Expected to Rebound - The breeding sector for white feather chickens is expected to see a tightening supply in the second half of 2025, which will impact the supply of commodity meat chickens in 2026. [26][35] - The current stock of parent breeding chickens has dropped to historically low levels, setting the stage for future price increases. The cost of yellow feather chicken breeding has decreased, and a price rebound is expected to significantly enhance profit margins. [27][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the breeding sector for white feather chickens, with Shengnong Development highlighted as a key player benefiting from cost improvements. For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended due to their potential for profit recovery as prices rebound. [35][37]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 19 周周报：它博会归来，如何看宠物经济发展新趋势？ 1、宠物板块：高景气延续，国产替代与消费升级共筑量价双升 1）它博会看点：①今年关注度再上一层。第五届 TOPS 它博会于本周在上海国家会展中心开幕，展会以超 10 万平展览面积、1200 余家展商、8000+ 品牌缔造行业盛况，折射宠物赛道强劲增长动能。展会首日观众数同比激增 43%，创历史新高，核心数据验证行业扩容。②产品和工艺趋势变化：宠 物主粮精细化趋势显著，分龄分阶喂养成为核心升级方向：幼年期主打高蛋白、原生营养（麦富迪奶弗羊奶肉主粮系列），老年期聚焦肠胃调理、关节 养护（麦富迪老年犬粮）；工艺革新驱动高端化：低温烘焙成军备竞赛焦点（领先烘焙鲜肉猫粮、弗列加特鲜肉烘焙粮），鲜粮/湿粮赛道崛起（ZEAL 新西兰进口主食罐），国产技术迭代创新，行业从"粗放供给"迈向"精准营养+体验升级"新周期；③部分参展公司亮点：外资品牌如皇家、渴望、 爱肯拿，国产头部品牌如麦富迪、鲜朗、蓝氏，以及国产宠物用品公司天元宠物等齐聚展会，其中国产品牌表现较为亮眼——麦富迪它博会以"超级 工厂+天性数据研 ...

Industry Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry experienced a slight revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 1.24 trillion, down 4.06% year-on-year. However, net profit turned positive at 47.985 billion, indicating a significant improvement in profitability, particularly in the breeding sector [1][11] - In Q4 2024, the industry achieved revenue of 349.694 billion, up 0.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 16.209 billion, a substantial increase of 293.20% [1][11] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 290.7 billion, up 4.44% year-on-year, with net profit of 13.335 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][11] Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector saw a recovery in 2024, with revenue of 483.276 billion, down 2.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 33.142 billion, indicating a return to profitability [2][26] - In Q1 2025, revenue increased to 118.888 billion, up 17.32% year-on-year, with net profit of 8.151 billion, continuing the positive trend [2][26] - The sector is expected to maintain good profitability in the short term, driven by strong swine prices and improved breeding costs, while long-term trends may lead to capacity reduction and a new cycle of growth [2][26] Poultry Breeding - The poultry breeding sector achieved revenue of 72.908 billion in 2024, up 1.93% year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 2.949 billion, a remarkable increase of 2094.95% [3][10] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 16.011 billion, up 1.12% year-on-year, with net profit of 0.38 billion, up 155.38% [3][10] - The sector is closely linked to restaurant demand, and with improving downstream demand, poultry products are expected to benefit significantly [3][10] Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenue of 24.664 billion in 2024, down 6.56%, but net profit turned positive at 0.454 billion [4][15] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 5.231 billion, up 4.79%, although net profit decreased by 31.87% [4][15] - The sector is expected to see improved demand due to ongoing agricultural revitalization efforts and increased grain yields [4][15]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [10] Core Insights - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes "new agricultural productivity" and the need for rural revitalization, highlighting the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology and smart agriculture [1][14] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in various sectors, including seeds, low-altitude economy, infrastructure, and animal husbandry [2][3][4][5][6] Seed Sector - The document mentions "food" 15 times, stressing national food security and the need to enhance crop yields through biotechnology [2][14] - The commercialization of genetically modified corn is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading seed companies [2] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Quanyin High-Tech [2] Low-Altitude Economy - The report supports the development of smart agriculture and low-altitude technologies, predicting a trillion-yuan market by 2030 [2][15] - Applications of drones in agriculture are expected to grow, benefiting companies involved in agricultural drone technology [2] Infrastructure - Emphasis on soil protection and quality improvement, with initiatives for high-standard farmland construction and water conservancy projects [2][15] - Quality enterprises in agriculture, fertilizers, and agricultural reclamation are expected to benefit [2] Swine Sector - The average price of live pigs is stable at 14.67 yuan/kg, with a decrease in profitability for self-breeding farms [3][16] - The supply of pigs is expected to remain high, while demand is sluggish post-Spring Festival [3][16] - Recommended companies include Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and New Hope Liuhe [3][17] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the impact of restricted overseas breeding on supply, with a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][19] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with recommendations for companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock [4][19] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its improving fundamentals and relative valuation [6][21] - The report notes a potential recovery in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [6][21] Animal Health Sector - The report emphasizes new market opportunities in pet health products and the introduction of innovative vaccines [7][22] - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Zhongmu Biological [7][22] Pet Sector - Domestic pet brands are growing rapidly, with a notable increase in pet food exports [8][24] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [8][24]