Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to the suspension of Myanmar tin ore transportation through Thailand and domestic production and supply factors, the expected supply of tin ore in China is tight, and the operating capacity of refined tin fluctuates downward. With the decrease in domestic and foreign refined tin inventories, the Shanghai tin price may rebound. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On June 9, 2025, the closing price was 263,740, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 84,455 lots, a decrease of 39,883 lots; the open interest was 25,485 lots, a decrease of 492 lots; the inventory was 6,904 tons, a decrease of 116 tons. The basis was 160, a decrease of 640; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 40, an increase of 160 [1]. - **LME Tin Futures**: On June 9, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was 32,600, up 345 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 25, a decrease of 25; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 139, an increase of 6. The global inventory was 2,440 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Price Ratio**: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.09 on June 9, 2025, down 0.08 from the previous day [1]. Supply - side Factors - **Domestic**: The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased compared with last week. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi plan to stop production for maintenance, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and inventory in June. The scrap tin recycling system is under pressure, and the risk of capacity withdrawal increases, which may cause a month - on - month decrease in China's recycled tin production in June [1]. - **International**: The resumption of production of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo (Kinshasa) is phased, and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. The MSC smelting company in Malaysia suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance's approval of mining licenses is affected by corruption investigations and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. Although PT Tinah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, the export volume of refined tin in June may not increase significantly [1]. - **Import**: Thailand's suspension of tin ore transportation from Myanmar since June 4 is expected to cause a reduction of 500 - 1,000 metal tons in China's tin ore imports in June [1]. Demand - side Factors - The processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production capacity utilization rate and inventory of China's tin solder wheels in June, and a month - on - month increase in imports and exports of China's solder strips in June. The production, imports, and exports of China's silver - tin plates may decrease, increase, and increase respectively month - on - month in June. The production capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries decreased compared with last week [1].

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have rebounded due to market corrections after a significant decline, despite ongoing supply constraints and uncertain recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [1][2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Tin prices rose by 3.14%, closing at 257,940 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of supply recovery from Myanmar, although these expectations remain unconfirmed [1] - Domestic supply of tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remains at historical lows, nearing smelter cost lines, which severely squeezes profit margins [1] - In May, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply chain [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate of domestic smelters has slightly declined due to ongoing supply chain constraints, with some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning maintenance shutdowns in June [1] - The tightening of tin concentrate and scrap supply continues to impose rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains stable, but future expectations are weak, with consumption growth in the tin end market driven by national policy support and product upgrades in the first four months of the year [1] - After a policy retreat in May, the photovoltaic market's consumption began to face pressure, while mid-year promotional activities are expected to boost demand in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - However, entering the traditional off-season in July and August, combined with high finished product inventories, may slow down the growth rate of tin terminal consumption [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent price declines have improved market sentiment for stocking up, although end customers maintain a cautious approach with general order situations [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while supply expectations have not yet materialized, the current situation remains tight, and low operating rates at smelters persist [2] - Domestic inventory has significantly decreased, while overseas stocks remain low, providing some short-term support for prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have been experiencing narrow fluctuations since May, with a decrease in volatility, as major economies engage in tariff negotiations with the U.S., leading to a more relaxed trade dispute atmosphere [2] Supply Side Recovery Expectations - There is an expectation of supply recovery in tin production by 2025, primarily from Myanmar's Wa State, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [3] - Myanmar's Wa State, which accounted for approximately 11% of global tin production, has resumed operations after a 21-month shutdown, with production expected to scale up by Q3 2024 [3] - Indonesia, the world's largest refined tin exporter, saw a significant recovery in exports, with March and April 2024 exports increasing by 50% and 58% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The DRC's Bijie tin mine, which contributes about 6% to global tin production, has resumed operations after a temporary shutdown due to armed conflict, although future disruptions remain a concern [4] Supply Side Tightness - The supply side remains tight, primarily due to the prolonged shutdown in Wa State, leading to a 48% year-on-year decline in tin ore imports to China from January to April 2024 [5] - Processing fees have dropped to historical lows, indicating a raw material shortage, with the latest processing fee reported at 12,700 yuan per ton [5] - China's tin production in March 2025 was 15,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, with April production further declining by 8.13% [5] Demand Stability - Demand for tin remains robust, particularly driven by the semiconductor industry and the growth of photovoltaic installations, with a 19% year-on-year increase in solar cell production from January to April 2024 [6] - Traditional tin demand from sectors like tinplate and tin chemicals remains stable, primarily maintaining existing demand levels [6] - The latest social inventory of tin in China stands at 9,959 tons, with a reduction in inventory following a price drop in early April [7] Market Outlook - The tin market shows strong supply-side realities, with ongoing tightness in tin ore supply and a strong willingness among primary smelters to reduce production due to low processing fees [8] - The recovery of supply from Wa State, along with improved exports from Indonesia and the DRC, stabilizes global tin supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, particularly from AI hardware and new energy sectors, although uncertainties exist due to potential global economic slowdowns stemming from trade conflicts [9] - Despite supply recovery pressures, the strong demand and tight supply conditions are likely to support tin prices in the medium term [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with both supply and demand showing weakness, leading to a sideways price movement for tin [1][2] - The main contract for tin closed at 2,646,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - The supply situation is tight due to the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the first batch of tin concentrate expected to enter the smelting stage only in June [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two key tin-producing provinces, remains low at 56.44% [1] - In Yunnan, the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate is at a historically low level, severely squeezing the profit margins of primary ore smelting enterprises [1] - The weekly operating rate of smelting plants in Yunnan has dropped to 65.48%, significantly lower than the previous week due to raw material shortages and cost pressures [1] Group 3 - Demand from traditional sectors such as electronics and home appliances is under pressure due to high tin prices and US-China trade tensions, leading to a "high premium, low transaction" pattern in the spot market [2] - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaic welding strips and new energy vehicles, continues to see high growth, but short-term increases are insufficient to offset the weakness in traditional consumption [2] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals lack strong drivers, suggesting that tin prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are maintaining a range-bound operation due to a tight supply in the short term and a lack of significant demand boost from downstream industries [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,770 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.92% [1] - The Congo (DRC) has become China's largest source of imported tin concentrate, surpassing Myanmar, with the Bisie tin mine resuming operations after a temporary halt due to armed conflict [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Bisie tin mine is progressing well, with the first batch of tin concentrate expected to enter the smelting phase by June 2025 [2] - The operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low due to raw material supply shortages, with the import volume from Myanmar falling below the warning line for several months [1] - The overall order situation from downstream customers is limited, as the willingness to restock in the electronics and home appliance sectors is low despite relatively high tin prices [1]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, the international metal market showed a low-to-high trend, with overall fluctuations being minor compared to the pre-holiday closing prices. Specifically, the price of tin on the London market decreased by 1.48% compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The domestic tin market was inactive during the May Day holiday, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The downstream processing enterprises had a weaker purchasing intention before the holiday, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - In April, China's refined tin production saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decline of 8.13%, attributed to a tightening supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin, which imposed rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure of tin mines in May remains challenging, with global inventories continuing to decrease, providing support for tin prices. However, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to increase supply, potentially limiting the upward price movement [1] - Some tin processing enterprises have gradually resumed production after May 3, starting to fulfill post-holiday orders. These enterprises had previously stocked up on sufficient inventory at lower prices, leading to a cautious approach towards replenishing stock based on market conditions and order situations [2] - The current market commentary suggests that while raw material supply is tight, consumption expectations have been revised downwards, indicating that the corrected supply-demand balance is not significantly imbalanced, and prices may continue to fluctuate widely [2]