1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

Core Insights - Indonesia experienced a complete economic bubble cycle in just four years, with its global nickel market share soaring from 6% to 74%, ultimately leading to a collapse [1][4] Group 1: Indonesia's Nickel Industry Growth - In 2020, Indonesia, holding 60% of global nickel reserves, banned nickel ore exports to attract global manufacturers, technology, and capital [3] - The rapid expansion of Indonesia's refined nickel market share from 6% to 74% was characterized as "madness," generating over $30 billion in annual export revenue [4] - Indonesia's annual nickel production reached 2.2 million tons, with an additional 1.5 million tons of smelting capacity under construction, leading to an oversupply situation [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Decline - The imbalance in supply and demand resulted in a significant drop in nickel prices, currently around $14,000 per ton, nearing the cost line for many Indonesian smelters [7] - The once-thriving nickel smelting industry in Indonesia is now facing layoffs and production halts due to the price collapse [7] Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China's demand for nickel has shifted due to changes in electric vehicle battery technology, with a growing preference for lithium iron phosphate batteries that require less nickel [9] - During the price drop, China strategically accumulated high-quality primary nickel as a reserve, showcasing its proactive approach in the supply chain [11] - Chinese companies have advanced recycling technologies, allowing over 95% of nickel to be extracted from waste, reducing reliance on new mines [12] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Challenges - Indonesian smelting plants are still using coal-fired furnaces, resulting in high carbon emissions, which poses significant environmental challenges [13] - The experiences of Indonesia highlight that resource ownership does not equate to control over the supply chain; technological capabilities are crucial for success [15][20] Group 5: Lessons for Other Nations - Other countries attempting to replicate China's model, like Vietnam and Australia, face challenges due to a lack of mature refining technologies, leading to continued dependence on China [14] - The global competition has shifted from resource acquisition to technological ecosystems and supply chain resilience, as illustrated by Indonesia's nickel price collapse [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].

Group 1 - Shanghai SMM nickel premium is reported at +2000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY, while imported nickel premium remains at +350 CNY/ton with no change, and electrolytic nickel premium is at +100 CNY/ton with no change [1] - The national nickel price list shows 1 nickel (Ni9990) prices ranging from 120,500 CNY/ton to 122,300 CNY/ton across various locations, with the highest price in Shanghai [2] - On July 17, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract closed at 119,880 CNY/ton, down 0.60%, with a trading volume of 85,829 lots [2] Group 2 - A fire incident occurred at Zhejiang Zhongneng's workshop, which has a monthly pure nickel production capacity of approximately 400 tons; however, the actual impact on pure nickel supply is limited as the fire has been extinguished [3] - As of July 17, LME nickel registered warehouse receipts total 194,832 tons, with 12,450 tons of canceled receipts, an increase of 2,412 tons, while nickel inventory decreased by 6 tons to 207,282 tons [3] Group 3 - According to Yide Futures research, domestic nickel iron prices have dropped to around 900 CNY/nickel point, leading to losses for many domestic iron factories; some downstream steel mills are reducing production due to profit concerns, while overall consumption is weak [4] - The report indicates that the recent decline in ore prices has lowered cost support, and the nickel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with attention on inventory changes [4]

2025年07月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面承压运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单延续下行，关注供给实质变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：市场情绪发酵，关注上行空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场消息持续性发酵 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 17 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面承压运行 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,550 | 1,170 | 1,410 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the supply surplus situation remains, and the short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is still insufficient. The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,440 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 94,219 lots, and the open interest was 62,803 lots. The contract showed a weak shock, and the trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and there was still a need for short - term correction. The 117,000 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel and other mainstream brands decreased. The trading sentiment of refined nickel improved, but the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,555 (259.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (0) tons [1]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The trading strategy is mainly range trading for single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,583 lots, and the open interest was 93,471 lots. The contract rose first and then fell, and the trading volume and open interest increased due to the contract switch. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and there was pressure above the 40 - day moving average. The 12,400 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [2]. - In the spot market, most quotes in the Foshan market remained the same as the previous trading day, and the trading volume did not improve significantly, with insufficient market confidence. The nickel - iron market quotes decreased, and it was expected that the nickel - iron price would be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,775 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 170 - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily investment analysis and trend forecasts for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity has its own specific market situation, influenced by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, macro - economic environment, and industry news [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Inventory increase puts pressure on copper prices. The current trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Multiple countries have announced measures to increase copper production, and LME's new warehouse in Hong Kong has attracted copper storage [5][7]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to run within a range. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data have been released [8][9]. Lead - Lead is supported by expectations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data are relevant [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum's center of gravity is moving up; alumina is short - term strong due to the rainy season in Guinea; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for alumina, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [14][16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's upward elasticity is limited, and the price is under pressure at a low level. Stainless steel's inventory is slightly digested, and the price is recovering but with limited elasticity. The trend strengths are 0 for both nickel and stainless steel. Multiple industry news items, such as production changes in Indonesian nickel - related factories, have been reported [17][23]. Lithium Carbonate - There is an expected increase in the mining end, and the warehouse receipts are rising but the total amount is low. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market volatility is increasing. Polysilicon's volatility is intensifying, and attention should be paid to policies. The trend strengths are 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon. Yunnan has issued policies to promote the photovoltaic industry [27][30]. Iron Ore - Iron ore's expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. China's June CPI data has been released [31]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for both. Multiple industry news items, such as steel production and inventory data and Vietnam's anti - dumping measures, have been reported [34][37]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for ferrosilicon and 1 for silicomanganese. Multiple industry news items, including price quotes and steel mill procurement information, have been reported [38][40]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke is in a slightly upward - trending shock; coking coal is affected by news and is also in a slightly upward - trending shock. The trend strengths are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal. Price and inventory data, as well as industry news, have been provided [41][44]. Steam Coal - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation [46][49]. Forest Products Logs - Logs are experiencing a main contract switch and are in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral outlook. Trump has postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [50][52]. Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), PTA, and MEG - PX is in a single - sided shock market; PTA requires attention to the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts and a month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is in a single - sided shock market, and a month - spread long - position arbitrage should be considered at low levels. The trend strengths are 0 for PX, 0 for PTA, and 1 for MEG. Market supply and demand information and price data have been provided [53][60]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber is in a slightly upward - trending shock; synthetic rubber follows the rubber sector's rebound [27][29]. Asphalt - Asphalt is temporarily in a shock, and attention should be paid to the risk of rising crude oil prices [31]. LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, and PVC - LLDPE is short - term strong in a shock; PP's spot price is falling, and the trading is light; caustic soda is short - term strong; pulp is in a slightly upward - trending shock; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is short - term in a shock; urea is in a slight upward - trending pattern; styrene is short - term in a shock; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is in a short - term wide - range shock; PVC is short - term in a shock and will face pressure later [22][51]. Energy and Shipping Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session performance is weak, and it is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a short - term shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [44]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The 08 contract is in a shock consolidation, and a light short - position in the 10 contract can be held [44]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, and Peanut - Palm oil is pushed up by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans; soybean meal may be in a weak shock due to trade concerns and the decline of US soybeans; soybean's spot price is stable, and the market is in a shock; corn is in a shock adjustment; sugar is in a consolidation period; cotton's old - crop inventory shortage expectation continues to support the futures price; attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices in the peak season for eggs; the sentiment in the live - pig spot market is weakening; peanuts have support at the bottom [44][70]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber is short - term in a shock, and a reverse arbitrage should be considered at high levels; bottle - chip is short - term in a shock, and a long - PR short - PF strategy can be adopted [44][57]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a shock operation [58].

2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：美元承压，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锌：区间运行 | 7 | | 铅：中期偏强 | 8 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 9 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 11 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：治理内卷式竞争主要影响下游汽车行业需求，关注宏观情绪扰动放大波动率 | 13 | | 工业硅：短期情绪扰动，关注上方空间 | 15 | | 多晶硅：盘面预计冲高回落 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪提振，偏强震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪提振，偏强震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪提振，震荡偏强 | 20 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪提振，震荡偏强 | 20 | | 焦炭：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 | 22 | | 焦煤：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 | 22 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 24 | | 原木：主力切换，宽 ...