Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in breeding costs, with stable growth in both domestic and international feed businesses [1] - The target price has been adjusted to 11.27 CNY due to a decline in pig prices expected after October 2025, leading to a downward revision of earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [8] - The company’s breeding cost per kilogram has decreased to 12.5 CNY, with further potential for reduction [8] - The feed segment is expected to continue its robust growth, with a 16% increase in overseas sales volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 141,703 million CNY, with a slight increase of 0.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from 249 million CNY in 2023 to 1,077 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth of 117.1% in 2023 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.06 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.24 CNY by 2026 [2] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 1.0% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2026 [2] Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 8.35 CNY and 11.04 CNY over the past 52 weeks [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 40,883 million CNY [3] Balance Sheet Summary - Shareholder equity stands at 25,762 million CNY, with a book value per share of 5.72 CNY [4] - The company has a net debt ratio of 136.65% [4] Sales and Production Insights - In November 2025, the company sold 156.75 thousand pigs, with a revenue of 1.812 billion CNY [8] - The cumulative sales from January to November 2025 reached 1,573.65 thousand pigs [8] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 11.54 CNY per kilogram [8]

格隆汇12月15日丨百洋股份(002696.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司生产的国产优质鱼粉聚焦饲料原 料领域核心需求，目前主力产品蛋白含量规格为65%和67%。 ...

迎接产业变革新时代——农林牧渔行业 2026 年度投资策 略 20251214 摘要 生猪养殖行业受政策调控影响，产能去化加速，预计 2026 年三季度或 现价格拐点。当前行业亏损严重，低成本、高现金流企业迎来左侧布局 机会，建议关注牧原股份、温氏股份等龙头企业。 饲料行业面临国内市场竞争加剧和产能过剩，出海成为重要发展方向。 2025 年前三季度饲料总产量同比增长 7%，猪饲料和禽饲料增长迅速， 水产饲料复苏。海大集团等企业在海外市场积极扩张，增长潜力巨大。 宠物食品板块受贸易战影响，外销压力曾受冲击，但通过转移生产至东 南亚市场，外销压力逐步减轻并恢复。中宠公司通过调整供应链布局， 有效缓解了外部冲击。 生猪价格已跌至 2021 年以来最低水平，全行业亏损严重，10 月全国均 价一度跌破每公斤 10 元。政策层面，降低能繁母猪数量、减少出栏体 重并禁止二次育肥，加速去产能进程。 中国饲料产量占全球 23%，海外市场容量更大且增速更快，是未来发展 的重要方向。海大集团预计 2025 年销量可达 330 万吨，同比增长 40%，未来有望突破 400 万吨。 Q&A 2026 年农业农林牧渔行业的年度策略主要关 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

证券研究报告 2025.12.14 农业周报：宠食新消费品牌发力大促 王思洋 分析员 陈泰屹 分析员 龙友琪 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523070004 SFC CE Ref：BTG198 siyang5.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020011 taiyi.chen@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524010004 youqi.long@cicc.com.cn 行业动态 行业近况 本周（12.8-12.12）农林牧渔涨幅+0.3%，跑赢大盘 0.4ppt。涨 幅前三个股为正邦/生物股份/罗牛山，分别+19%/+17%/+14%。 评论 畜禽产业链：11 月样本上市猪企出栏环比下降。1）生猪养殖： 商品猪/二元母猪/7kg仔猪价格周环比+2.1%/-0.5%/+1.2%；11 月样本上市猪企出栏量环比减少 5.5%；涌益 17 省育肥栏舍利用 率环比-6.5ppt；本周商品猪出栏均重周环比-0.2%，关注北方动 物疫病情况；德康"百村百万"家庭农场基地投运。2）禽养 殖：鸡苗/毛鸡/鸡产品价格周环比+1.4%/+0.8%/+0.6%；哈 ...

农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《集团年度计划完成压力或偏小但散 户大猪出栏压力偏大，行业能繁去化 延续—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《年末猪价存在供需双重支撑，牛周 期景气持续性或超预期—行业周报》 -2025.11.30 《生猪能繁去化加速，我国暂停进口 日本水产利多国内水产板块—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 10 腌腊渐入旺季支撑猪价上行，犊牛价格上行彰显牛 周期景气 ——行业周报 chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 本周上证指数下跌 0.34%，农业指数下跌 0.08%，跑赢大盘 0.26 个百分点。子 板块来看，动物保健板块领涨。个股来看，*ST 正邦（+19.40%）、生物股份 （+17.16%）、罗牛山（+13.73%）领涨 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 12月水产料、畜禽料涨不停。 鱼粉年内暴涨5000元/后，豆粕又跟涨 12月，主流市场秘鲁鱼粉价格保持在16900-17000元/吨的高位，部分港口报价高达17500-18000元/吨， 但整体成交议价为主。目前高点的18000元/吨，较年初12900-13000元/吨，暴涨了5000元/吨。 近日，豆粕市场消息频传！ 有消息称全国海关将延期到25天放行，进口大豆通关时间延长，缓解大豆及豆粕库存压力，并导致12月 进口大豆通关延迟，令豆粕现货价格出现小幅上涨。 另一边，时隔三个月的进口大豆拍卖再次开启！ 本次交易进口大豆数量51.25万吨，分布在辽宁、天津、河北、浙江、山东、湖南、河南、四川等地， 大豆生产年份为2022或2023年，杂质最多为1.5%，大部分在1%以下;而水分最高为13%，大部分在10% 以内，且在12月22日就能开始交割出库。 从拍卖结果来看，12月11日大豆成交总量达397043吨，成交率高达77.5%，其中山东、天津及浙江等地 成交火爆，几乎是全部成交。从拍卖价格来看，本次拍卖成交均价3935.3元/吨，若不考虑大豆生产年 限、出库及运输等费用，这价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and feed companies [7]. Core Insights - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [15][18]. - For soybeans, the report suggests a recovery in U.S. imports, which is likely to support price recovery [33][35]. - The beef market is projected to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced production and strong domestic demand [3][6]. - The dairy sector is expected to experience a price reversal due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand for both meat and milk [4][6]. - The pork market is anticipated to face a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half [6][7]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report predicts a reduction in global corn production by 3.27 million tons, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks and a tightening supply-demand ratio [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by low trader inventories [18][19]. Soybeans - The global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly, with a projected rise in U.S. imports and a positive outlook for domestic soybean meal prices [33][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade relations and South American weather conditions for future price movements [38]. Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with an increase in production forecasts from major exporting countries, leading to a slight rise in the global ending stocks ratio [2][45]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize, influenced by the overall supply situation and potential government storage interventions [48][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production, with prices expected to rise due to strong domestic demand and reduced imports [3][6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices likely to trend upwards [3][6]. Dairy - The report indicates a potential reversal in the dairy market, driven by reduced cow inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance [4][6]. - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise as a result of these factors [4][6]. Pork - The U.S. pork market is projected to see a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half of the year [6][7]. - Domestic breeding sow inventories are stabilizing, which may help support industry profitability [6][7]. Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased production and consumption anticipated as avian influenza impacts diminish [6][7]. - Domestic chicken supply is projected to stabilize, with a focus on internal demand recovery [6][7].

截至发稿，天康生物市值为95亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——实施城乡居民增收计划、降准降息等工具灵活高效运用、增加普通高中学 位……深度解读中央经济工作会议 每经AI快讯，天康生物（SZ 002100，收盘价：6.94元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，公司第八届第三十 次董事会临时会议于2025年12月11日在公司11楼4号会议室召开。会议审议了《关于收购新疆羌都畜牧 科技有限公司51%股权暨签署 <股权收购协议> 的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，天康生物的营业收入构成为：生猪养殖占比32.2%，饲料占比27.51%，农产品加工占 比16.37%，玉米收储行业占比14.75%，兽药占比5.44%。 （记者 王瀚黎） ...