12月份中国采购经理指数均升至扩张区间 （三）重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势 向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区 间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回升。 （四）预期指数升至较高景气区间。生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，制造业 企业对市场发展信心继续增强。从行业看，受节前备货等因素带动，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数均升至60.0%以上高位景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数重回扩张区间 12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平改善。 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年12月中国采购经理指数 2025年12月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业 ...

Report Overview This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, providing daily arbitrage data for various commodities on December 15, 2025. It covers multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents detailed historical data on the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of different futures commodities, aiming to offer reference for market participants in analyzing price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities among various futures contracts. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - **Basis Data**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of thermal coal was -22.4, -32.4, -40.4, -48.4, -56.4 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Data on basis, price ratios, and other indicators for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt are provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil on December 8, 2025, being 9.43 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of rubber was -365, -285, -365, -285, -280 yuan/ton respectively; for methanol, it was 11, 29, 42, 51, 40.5 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was -20 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was -40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On December 12, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2276 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 375 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was -13 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month spread was 20 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On December 12, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.04, and the rebar/coke ratio was 20480 [19]. - **Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of rebar was 137, 161, 183, 181, 190 yuan/ton respectively [20]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of copper was -590, 730, -10, 170, -620 yuan/ton respectively [28]. - **London Market**: On December 12, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 20.69, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of soybean No.1 was -65, -69, -141, -153, -118 yuan/ton respectively [38]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybean No.1 was 25 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was 32 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On December 12, 2025, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.85, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.89 [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 6.95, and the basis of SSE 50 was 7.84 [49]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was -172, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was -440 [49].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——让"铁疙瘩"从数万米高空精准"踩刹车"，中国商业航天"降本复用"只差"最 后一公里"！朱雀之后，同行排队接力 （记者 曾健辉） 2024年1至12月份，凌钢股份的营业收入构成为：黑色金属冶炼及压延加工占比94.66%，其他业务占比 5.34%。 截至发稿，凌钢股份市值为61亿元。 每经AI快讯，凌钢股份（SH 600231，收盘价：2.14元）12月4日晚间发布公告称，2024年12月5日至 2025年12月4日，凌钢集团通过集中竞价交易方式累计增持公司A 股股份约1290万股，占公司已发行总 股份的0.45%，累计增持金额约2214万元，已超过增持计划下限金额2200万元，相关增持计划已实施完 毕。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Lingang Co., Ltd. (SH 600231), announced the appointment of Mr. Du Yu as the secretary of the board, effective from July 25, 2025, with qualifications approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, the company's revenue composition is as follows: 94.66% from black metal smelting and rolling processing, and 5.34% from other businesses [1] - The current market capitalization of Lingang Co., Ltd. is 6.6 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The Chinese innovative drug sector has seen significant overseas licensing sales, totaling 80 billion USD this year [2] - There is a contrast in the biopharmaceutical secondary market's activity compared to the primary market, which is experiencing a fundraising slowdown [2]

Economic Overview - In September, the economy continued the trend of "production resilience, demand slowdown," with retail sales and real estate sales both lower than previous values[1] - The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2, aligning with expectations and reflecting the impact of tariff shocks and domestic structural adjustments[2] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous month, influenced by the depletion of prior subsidies and a high base from last year[5] - Fixed asset investment in September decreased by 8.4%, with manufacturing, broad infrastructure, narrow infrastructure, and real estate investments down by 1.9%, 8.0%, 4.7%, and 21.3% respectively, indicating a widening decline across sectors[22] Industrial Production - Industrial output in September rose by 6.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August, supported by resilient exports and an additional working day due to holiday arrangements[5] - The performance of downstream industries was relatively strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 7.1% for downstream, midstream, and upstream industries respectively[9] Risks and Policy Implications - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and possible measurement errors in data[29] - The necessity for further policy stimulus in Q4 is low unless significant risks arise in real estate, exports, or employment[4]

Core Viewpoint - Hisense Electric has announced a subscription to a trust financial product amounting to RMB 1.739 billion, continuing its trend of significant investments in trust products, which highlights its strategy to utilize idle funds effectively [1][3]. Group 1: Hisense Electric's Investment Activities - Hisense Electric has made 13 announcements regarding financial product subscriptions this year, totaling RMB 27.207 billion, with trust products accounting for 61.5% of this amount, exceeding RMB 16 billion [3]. - The company has shown a preference for trust financial products, engaging with five different trust companies, including Jingu Trust and Huaneng Trust [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends in Trust Financial Products - As of October 16, 2025, 41 listed companies have participated in trust financial products, with total subscriptions exceeding RMB 18 billion, indicating a growing trend among manufacturing firms [4]. - Notably, companies in the manufacturing sector, such as Shagang Group and Fangda Special Steel, have also engaged in trust investments, reflecting a broader industry trend towards stable income products [4]. Group 3: Reasons for Trust Financial Product Adoption - Companies are increasingly opting for trust financial products due to their flexibility, stable returns, and manageable risks, with a significant portion of trust funds being directed towards the securities market [7]. - Hisense Electric and other companies have stated that using idle funds for trust investments will not negatively impact their core operations and will enhance the efficiency of capital utilization [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has uncertainties in the short - term due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. may be affected by Sino - US trade relations and their own supply - demand fundamentals, with different price trends and trading suggestions [10][11][12][13]. - In the black building materials sector, steel and iron ore prices may be affected by Trump's tariff statements and their own supply - demand situations. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31][33]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the prices of various products such as rubber, crude oil, and methanol are affected by macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, with different trading strategies [47][52][56]. - For agricultural products, the prices of products like hogs, eggs, and soybeans are affected by supply - demand relations, seasonal factors, and trade policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [76][78][80]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In September, passenger car retail sales reached a new peak. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rebounded significantly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4100 per ounce, up 56% this year. JPMorgan will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences. The short - term index faces uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. China's foreign trade data showed an increase in exports and a slight decrease in imports. Trump said the Gaza war was over. The central bank conducted a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The recent escalation of Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial for the bond market's repair in the short - term, but the long - term trend depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. The shortage of silver in the London spot market drove up prices, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The concern about Sino - US trade relations eased, and copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories changed [10]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, copper prices may remain strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market sentiment recovered, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as domestic consumption and copper price drive [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index slightly declined, and LME zinc rose. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal. The low registered LME zinc warehouse receipts pose a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index declined, and LME lead also fell. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The lead market has some changes in supply and demand. Due to Trump's tariff statement, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was slightly weak [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices have support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was mixed [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate due to supply - demand balance and seasonal demand [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium was stable, and the futures price declined slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: Affected by macro news, carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to macro environment changes and demand expectations [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import window was close to closing [24]. - **Strategy**: The short - term ore price has support, but the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on supply - side policies and Fed policies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the spot price also decreased. The inventory increased after the holiday [26]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the inventory increased, and the terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to trend weakly [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side aluminum price rebounded, but the increase in warehouse receipts puts pressure on the price [28][29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and spot prices also changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff statement may impact the steel market. The demand during the National Day holiday was weak. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore futures price rose. The spot price and basis were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand was relatively stable. The future trend depends on downstream demand and trade policies [33][34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda - ash futures price rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda - ash prices are expected to trend weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The spot prices and basis were provided [37]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the sector's trend [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, and the polysilicon futures price declined. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon prices may rise in the long - term due to supply reduction and cost support. Polysilicon prices are expected to adjust technically in the short - term [43][45]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the US tariff statement, global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber market has different views on supply and demand [47][48]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price has broken down in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. A hedging strategy is also suggested [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and refined - oil futures prices declined. China's crude - oil and refined - oil inventory data changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices in different regions changed. The basis and 1 - 5 spread also changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The methanol market has supply - demand pressure, but the short - term downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices in different regions declined. The basis and 1 - 5 spread changed [57]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the urea market has supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to wait and see at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling due to inventory reduction [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price declined. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [60][61]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a supply - demand imbalance. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The ethylene - glycol market is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and processing - fee data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The PTA market has a short - term de - stocking pattern, but the processing - fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and valuation data were provided [68]. - **Strategy**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuation changes [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [72][73]. - **Strategy**: The PP market has supply - demand pressure and high inventory. The short - term has no prominent contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices varied. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening supported prices [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or declined. The market had supply - demand pressure [78]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the egg market has multiple negative factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short - sell in the long - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans declined. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and the inventory decreased [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term and expect range - bound oscillations in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased. Domestic oil inventories changed, and prices oscillated downward [82]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined. Brazilian sugar production data were provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: Brazilian sugar production data are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. The spot price and downstream operating - rate data were provided [87]. - **Strategy**: Due to Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, cotton prices are expected to decline in the short - term [88].

Group 1 - The company, Lingang Co., Ltd. (SH 600231), announced on October 9 that it has repurchased a total of 14.4975 million shares, accounting for 0.51% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 28.4699 million [1] - The highest and lowest prices for the repurchased shares were RMB 2.08 and RMB 1.71 per share, respectively [1] - As of the announcement, the company's market capitalization stands at RMB 6.1 billion [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2024, the company's revenue composition is as follows: black metal smelting and rolling processing accounts for 94.66%, while other businesses contribute 5.34% [1]

Group 1 - In August, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) rose for the fourth consecutive month, indicating a positive trend in various price indicators due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1][2] - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for major raw material purchase prices and factory prices increased to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, marking a three-month upward trend [2] - The CBPI reached 111.7 points in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, reflecting ongoing expansion in enterprise production and operations [2] Group 2 - The implementation of policies to address "involution" in competition is expected to improve market competition order and alleviate supply-demand conflicts, supporting a positive price cycle [3] - Key sectors such as photovoltaic, automotive, steel, and cement are seeing improvements in supply-demand dynamics due to the enforcement of "involution" policies [4] - The steel industry reported a total profit of 59.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 63.26%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4] Group 3 - There are signs of improvement in the Producer Price Index (PPI), but the transmission mechanism to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak, limiting the impact on consumer prices [5] - The effectiveness of stimulating internal demand is crucial for achieving a virtuous cycle of improved corporate profitability and enhanced economic momentum [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement policies to expand domestic demand, including a trade-in program for consumer goods and support for digital consumption [6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.4% in August, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][6] - The production index reached 50.8%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase, and has remained above the critical point for four consecutive months, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2][6] - The new orders index was at 49.5%, also showing a 0.1 percentage point increase, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and computer communication sectors [2][6] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][5] - The service sector business activity index reached a year-high of 50.5%, rising 0.5 percentage points, with strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4][5] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector was at 57.0%, reflecting optimistic market expectations among service enterprises [4][5] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.5%, indicating overall expansion in enterprise production and operational activities, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices at 50.8% and 50.3% respectively [6][7] - The market price index has shown an upward trend due to increased raw material procurement and stabilized market demand, alongside the effects of policies addressing "involution" competition [3][7] - The overall sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector remains stable, with expectations for continued growth driven by policy support and market self-recovery [5][7]