7月，美国经济仍呈现为"胀"大于"滞"，经济表现好于预期。1）通胀方面，随着关税税率的提升和传导，7月以来，线上零售价格持续上涨；2）增长方面， 7月美国失业率为4.2%、符合市场预期，且二季度GDP回升，经济总量上具有韧性，但结构上已现经济疲弱的态势。 同时，美股超预期的季报数据也"点燃"了市场情绪，再度吸引外资的回流，也支撑了美元的反弹。1）美股二季报出炉，标普500盈利、营收均超市场预期。 2）外资对美资产配置持续走高，其中对美股增持113.6亿美元。外资向美国"回流"等也支撑了美元上行。 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇（赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 7月，美国经济好于预期，叠加超预期的二季报，上半年全球资金"再平衡"趋势一度逆转，再度向美国回流。"再平衡"反转的持续性、后续国内外关注的焦 点？本文分析，供参考。 （一）7月海外市场主线？美股季报行情叠加经济韧性，海外"再平衡"再现波折 （二）7月国内市场的焦点？"反内卷"政策释放利好，上游价格明显回升 7月，"反内卷"政策利好不断，主线逻辑不断夯实。在前期政策的基础上，7月进一步落地多项"反内卷"举措，如《中华人 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Swatch's controversial advertisement featuring a model making a "slant-eyed" gesture, which is perceived as a symbol of racial discrimination against East Asians [2][5][6] - Following the backlash, Swatch quickly removed the image from its Chinese website but did not issue an immediate official statement [5][6] - The company's apology, issued the next day, acknowledged the issue but lacked specific details on how such content passed their review process and what measures would be taken to prevent future occurrences [6] Group 2 - The incident highlights a potential oversight in content review and a perceived disregard for the Chinese market by Swatch, which is crucial for its revenue [6] - In 2023, Swatch's sales in China grew by 10.9% to 2.63 billion Swiss francs, accounting for 33.3% of the group's total sales [6] - The company must demonstrate a deeper understanding of Chinese culture and consumer sentiments to regain trust, rather than relying solely on apologies and image removals [6] Group 3 - The second controversy involves YingShi Innovation's founder throwing cash at employees during a celebration, which sparked debate over whether this act was a form of humiliation or a genuine incentive [7][11] - The company issued a statement clarifying that the cash was from the founder's personal salary and emphasized the need to align employee behavior with public image standards [11][12] - This incident reflects a broader conflict between corporate incentive culture and public perception, indicating the importance of emotional resonance and value alignment in employee motivation strategies [12]

信用是市场经济的基础。对企业而言，良好的信用是一张重要名片。 这也带来思考，如何运用法治思维和法治方式，深入推进构建良好信用生态？ 两个事例，给人启示。 一个关乎精准惩戒。上海某汽车公司、某科技公司因合同纠纷被申请强制执行后，未按承诺及时履行。 企业是"恶意失信"还是"暂时失能"？上海长宁法院实地调查后认为，企业掌握关键核心技术，发展前景 可期，只是暂时遇到融资困难。法院以执行担保等对企业经营发展影响更小的措施，避免将其纳入失信 名单。今年3月底，企业获得融资后主动履行义务，困境迎刃而解。 一个关乎柔性修复。某塑料科技公司因技术升级导致资金链紧张未能偿还贷款，因违反财产报告令被纳 入失信名单。公司受信用惩戒影响无法再融资扩产，陷入"有订单无资金、有产能无信用"的困境。 怎么破局？江西法院查明，企业非恶意逃废债，仍有发展潜力。经债权人同意，法院出具信用修复证明 书，并暂停信用惩戒。半年内，企业偿还了债务，重焕生机。 打开信用修复之门，是激发市场活力的良方。实践表明，信用惩戒并非目的，通过精准施策，以约束促 诚信、以修复促发展才是更优解。当前，各地各部门积极探索，为"诚实而不幸"的经营主体"纾困"，执 法有力度又 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut of 50 basis points has caused significant turbulence in global markets, with A-shares showing an independent trend amid the tug-of-war between "positive effects" and "recession concerns" [2] - Northbound capital saw a record net inflow in a single day, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Both gold stocks and technology stocks experienced rare simultaneous gains, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3] - The Chinese yuan appreciated sharply by 800 points, showcasing currency market reactions to the Fed's decision [3] Group 2 - There is a contrast between the expectations of external demand recovery and the reality of weak domestic demand, highlighting a complex economic landscape [4] - The liquidity easing measures are juxtaposed with the risks of earnings downgrades, indicating potential challenges for companies [4] - The policy toolbox is being tested against the threshold of market confidence, suggesting that investor sentiment is crucial for future market movements [4] - Major funds are increasing their positions in consumer electronics, while speculative funds are targeting convertible bonds, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] - Insurance funds are maintaining high dividend stocks, reflecting a preference for stable income amid market volatility [4] - This sudden change serves as both a stress test and an opportunity for value reassessment, necessitating a new cognitive framework for investors as the linkage between A-shares and global markets evolves [4]

Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock technology sector is undergoing a critical phase of expectation reshaping and value reassessment, with strong performance in the first half of the year driven by breakthroughs in AI technology and overall revaluation of Chinese assets [1] - Recent market fluctuations reflect concerns over short-term profit pressures, such as price wars in e-commerce and new energy vehicles, as well as worries about the domestic economic recovery and geopolitical disturbances [1] - The adjustment period has created better investment opportunities, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index PE valuation at 24.9 times as of August 15, indicating a significant drop compared to the first quarter of this year, providing a good margin of safety and investment value [1] Group 2 - Profit expectations are likely to bottom out and improve, supported by strengthened regulatory signals against "involution," which may alleviate profit margin pressures, and accelerated commercialization of AI in various sectors [1] - There has been a record net inflow of over HKD 930 billion into Hong Kong stocks this year, particularly in technology leaders, indicating strong demand for allocation in this sector [1] Group 3 - Marginal improvement in overseas liquidity is anticipated, with a significant probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which would benefit emerging market equity assets, especially technology growth stocks [2] - Hong Kong's position as a global financial center is strengthening, with IPO financing leading globally, suggesting continued international capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [3] - The performance of overseas technology leaders in Q2 supports the ongoing logic of AI expansion, with strong growth in token usage and computing power demand, indicating that concerns over the collapse of the technology narrative may be overstated [3]

中国发展网讯山东省滨州市作为黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的重要节点城市，正全力推进五大千亿级产 业集群转型升级与新兴产业培育。然而，在产业迭代与企业成长过程中，企业融资难、融资贵问题如同 横亘在企业发展道路上的一道关卡，严重制约着企业的发展壮大与转型升级。滨州市发展改革委立足本 地产业特色，以"靶向治疗"思维重构融资服务体系，通过打通股权融资"主动脉"、畅通小微融资"毛细 血管"、搭建信用融资"智慧桥梁"，让金融资源精准流向实体经济最需要的地方，为产业高质量发展注 入强劲动力。 激活股权融资"引擎"，为产业升级注入资本动能 股权融资作为企业直接融资的重要方式，是推动产业转型升级的核心动力。滨州市发展改革委以政策为 引领、平台为纽带、龙头为支点，构建起多层次股权融资服务体系，让资本市场的"活水"精准滴灌实体 经济。 政策赋能，厚植创投沃土。出台《推动创业投资高质量发展三年行动方案》，将创业投资发展纳入县 (市、区)考核体系，通过任务分解、定期调度、督导通报，形成上下联动的工作格局。截至目前，累计 开展创投政策培训20余场，覆盖企业负责人、金融从业者超700人次，深入企业宣讲130余次，让政策红 利直达市场主体。6月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "US Regime Indicator" compiled by Bank of America has shown the largest jump in over a year, signaling a potential shift in the US business cycle from "downturn" to "recovery" [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Not-so-Nifty 450" stocks, which exclude the top 50 stocks in the S&P 500, are expected to outperform the "Nifty 50" during the recovery phase, with historical data indicating that the former's P/E expansion is twice that of the latter [1][2][3]. - Historical data shows that during previous recovery periods, the "Nifty 50" underperformed the "Not-so-Nifty 450" by an average of 3.3 percentage points per year, with only 36% of recovery periods seeing the "Nifty 50" outperform [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The "Magnificent Seven," comprising major tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, have significantly driven the S&P 500 index to new highs, but their high valuations are causing caution among investors [4][5][8]. - The disparity in performance between large-cap and small-cap tech stocks is at a historical high, with small-cap tech stocks lagging significantly behind their large-cap counterparts [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The improvement in the "US Regime Indicator" is broad-based, with six out of eight original inputs showing positive changes, including EPS revisions and GDP forecasts [6][8]. - Despite the positive signals, leading economic indicators and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index have shown weakness, indicating potential volatility in the recovery [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a structural opportunity for small-cap stocks, particularly those with high-quality factors and low-risk profiles, as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - A list of stocks from the "Not-so-Nifty 450" with low forward P/E ratios and high beta values has been identified as potential recovery plays, including companies like United Airlines and Devon Energy [9].

Market Overview - On August 18, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.37% at 25,176.85 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.65% at 5,579.18 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.06% at 9,033.68 points [1] - The pharmaceutical sector remained strong, while cyclical stocks were generally weak. Notable stock movements included BYD up over 0.5%, Alibaba and Xiaomi both up nearly 0.5%, Tencent down over 0.5%, and Kuaishou down nearly 1.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) rose by 1.06% [1] Southbound Capital - On August 18, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 1.386 billion HKD, bringing the total net inflow for the year to 940.308 billion HKD, significantly exceeding last year's total [1] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results overnight, with the Dow Jones down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03%. Notable declines included Sherwin-Williams and Amgen, both down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had mixed performances, with Xunlei up over 37% and Niu Technologies down nearly 10%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.12% [1] Earnings Reports - Recently, the Hong Kong stock market entered a period of concentrated earnings disclosures. On August 18, Leap Motor reported a net profit of 30 million CNY for the first half of the year, becoming the second Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer to achieve semi-annual profitability [2] - Leap Motor raised its annual sales target to between 580,000 and 650,000 units, with a goal of challenging 1 million units in sales next year [2] Short Selling Data - On August 18, a total of 638 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 33.484 billion HKD. The top three stocks by short selling amount were Tencent Holdings at 1.598 billion HKD, Xiaomi Group at 1.255 billion HKD, and Alibaba at 1.135 billion HKD [3] Institutional Insights - According to Guotai Junan, the acceleration of AI applications is benefiting Hong Kong's tech sector, which is seen as a main investment theme. The AI industry is expected to grow rapidly due to technological and policy catalysts [4] - The State Council's recent approval of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan aims to promote large-scale commercial applications of AI, which could enhance the competitive edge of Hong Kong's tech leaders [4] - The Hong Kong market is also expected to benefit from strengthened dividend policies and low interest rates, making new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical assets attractive compared to A-shares [4] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets in China, representing a scarcity of tech leaders compared to A-shares [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market appears stable with minor fluctuations, but underlying movements suggest a strategic repositioning by major funds in anticipation of an upcoming interest rate cut [1][3] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq managed to close slightly positive, and the S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Jackson Hole annual meeting is a key event, with an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a significant shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve [3] - The initial phase of a rate cut cycle often leads to increased market volatility, necessitating a cautious approach [3] Technology Sector Analysis - Major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft are undergoing significant strategic changes, with Meta's AI business experiencing four restructurings in six months, reminiscent of Nokia's past adjustments [3] - Despite recent volatility, companies like NVIDIA are positioned for long-term growth due to sustained demand for AI computing power [3] Retail Sector Outlook - Upcoming earnings reports from retail giants such as Walmart and Home Depot will serve as indicators of the U.S. consumer market's health [4] - Experts suggest that tariffs and inflation may negatively impact these earnings, but companies that can pass on cost pressures to consumers may thrive [4] Geopolitical Developments - Recent geopolitical events, including discussions between Trump and Putin regarding direct negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have implications for oil prices, which have risen despite expectations of a decline [5] - The market's reaction to geopolitical news often reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality, with energy sector leaders potentially benefiting from these dynamics [5] Investment Strategies - Two main investment themes are emerging: "rate cut beneficiaries," particularly high-debt, high-growth small-cap tech companies, and "policy beneficiaries" linked to tax cuts and manufacturing incentives [5] - Financial and energy sectors are viewed as stabilizing forces in a volatile market, providing consistent returns [5]

Group 1 - The establishment of a unified national market is essential for constructing a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development [1] - The private economy is a vital force in advancing Chinese-style modernization and serves as an important foundation for high-quality development, with 4.6% year-on-year growth in newly established private enterprises in the first half of the year [1] - Local industry and commerce federations are enhancing the sense of gain for private enterprises by promoting policies, building communication platforms, and optimizing the business environment [1] Group 2 - Various local industry and commerce federations are actively conducting activities to understand enterprise needs and promote the implementation of supportive policies [2] - In Hebei Province, 1,456 enterprises and chambers of commerce were visited, resolving 387 issues and conducting 240 policy training sessions [2] - Guangdong Province's "Spring Rain Nourishing Seedlings" initiative aims to provide tailored tax policy solutions for small and micro enterprises [2] Group 3 - Local federations are organizing supply-demand matching platforms to facilitate cooperation among enterprises, enhancing industrial integration [3] - In Hunan Province, a supply and demand exchange salon was held, leading to the establishment of procurement agreements among participating enterprises [3] - The focus is on encouraging large private enterprises to lead and integrate into the unified national market [3] Group 4 - Wuhan City has launched the "Golden Bridge Plan" to connect technology-based small and micro enterprises with incubators, venture capital, and research institutions [4] - The national federation is facilitating a platform for innovative growth-oriented private enterprises to enhance collaboration and development [4] Group 5 - A multi-faceted dispute resolution mechanism is being established to optimize the legal business environment, with a focus on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [5] - The "court + chamber of commerce" model is being implemented to resolve enterprise disputes amicably and efficiently [5] - Over 6,900 mediation organizations have been established within the federation system, with more than 16,000 mediators available [6] Group 6 - Local federations are innovating dispute resolution methods to enhance service quality and efficiency [6] - The "customized mediation+" model in Yibin City has improved the effectiveness of dispute resolution through tailored services [6] - The federations are committed to reducing transaction costs and promoting fair competition to stimulate the vitality of various business entities [6]