每经AI快讯，近日，香港交易所正式推出"港交所科技100指数"，进一步拓展其指数业务。越疆 (02432.HK)入选。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the performance and driving factors of gold and U.S. equities in the context of monetary policy and technological advancements, particularly AI technology Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit both U.S. equities and gold in the first half of 2026, while the second half will require monitoring of AI's impact on productivity and economic models [1][3] - **Historical Trends**: Historical data indicates a pattern where gold and U.S. equities tend to rise together during periods of monetary easing, but diverge during economic downturns, with gold typically showing more resilience [4][5] - **Driving Factors for Gold**: Key drivers for gold include real interest rates, U.S. dollar credibility, and geopolitical tensions. For U.S. equities, the main drivers are corporate earnings, risk appetite, and interest rate changes [2] - **AI Technology's Role**: Breakthroughs in AI technology could negatively impact gold by enhancing confidence in U.S. fiscal and dollar credibility, thus affecting its demand [2][3] Additional Important Content - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on liquidity conditions resulting from the Fed's rate cuts, the development of AI technology, and its commercialization, as these factors will influence the competition between tech stocks and traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6][7] - **Market Volatility**: Increased global macroeconomic uncertainty may lead to significant market fluctuations, prompting investors to seize opportunities for asset accumulation and optimize their asset allocation strategies [1][7]

12月15日早盘，港股市场集体下跌。相关科技ETF中，截至发稿，港股科技30ETF（513160）跌1.3%， 溢折率0.27%，盘中溢价交易。成分股中，优必选、中国民航信息网络、越疆等涨幅领先。 资金流向来看，Wind数据显示，截至12月12日，该ETF已连续八个交易日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"超 5.2亿元 东吴证券认为，港股中长期仍在震荡上行趋势中。科技板块仍需观察美国科技股财报情况。美国科技龙 头叙事会持续影响全球科技产业链股票交易节奏。我们对AI趋势乐观，继续认为在降息周期下科技股 的相对胜率更高。为明年一季度基本面叙事会更加顺畅。今年剩下时间，整体科技弹性更高。 中银国际指出，面对日益复杂严峻的外部环境，2026年宏观政策将持续发力、适时加力。当前港股市场 估值水平仍具有吸引力。重点投资机会方面，壮大实体经济、推动科技创新、发展新质生产力和扩大内 需等领域或是关键方向，尤其是科技创新以及新质生产力相关板块可能是未来几年主线之一。 港股科技30ETF（513160）紧密跟踪恒生港股通中国科技指数，该指数跟踪可经港股通买卖，从事科技 业务并于香港上市的内地公司之表现。前十大重仓股包括中芯国际、快手-W ...

12 月 12 日，中央经济工作会议指出苦练内功应对外部挑战，继续实施适度宽松货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，着力稳定房地产市场，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，深入实施提振消费专项行动，清理消费领域不合 理限制措施。港股在美股提升下上升，周五恒生指数高开，最多曾升 475 点，最终上涨 446 点（1.8%），收报 25,976 点； 恒生科技指数升 103 点（1.9%），收盘报 5,638 点；全天大市成交额扩大至 2,427 亿元。但南向资金净流出 52.9 亿元。 盘面上，金价上升，紫金矿业（2899 HK）上升 3.6%；山东黄金（1787 HK）和招金矿业（1818 HK）涨 3.4%。中央经济 工作会议将"坚持内需主导"排在首位，消费股造好，蒙牛乳业（2319 HK）升 2.7%；农夫山泉（9633 HK）升 2.2%；海 底捞（6862 HK）升 2.9%。科技股上升，阿里巴巴（9988 HK）和腾讯（700 HK）涨 2.3%和 2.4%。 美股方面，虽然减息落地，但科技股继续下跌。周五纳斯达克指数跌幅加剧，收盘跌 245 点（0.5%），报 48,458 点；纳 斯达克指数 ...

近日，摩根资产管理发布了最新一期《长期资本市场假设》。这份覆盖全球200多个资产类别、20种货 币的报告，旨在为专业投资者预测未来10年至15年大类资产的回报、相关性及波动性。 摩根资产管理多资产解决方案全球策略师盛楠在接受上证报记者采访时表示，尽管面临挑战，但全球财 政政策的积极转向与以AI为代表的科技革命，正为长期经济增长与市场回报带来结构性机会。此外， 得益于中国在AI等高科技领域的投资与发展速度超出预期，外资有望继续流入中国市场。 展望全球资产未来表现，盛楠表示，尽管当前估值偏高，但基于坚实的企业盈利增长前景，预计未来10 年至15年全球股市有望实现约7%的年化回报率。债券方面，当前较高的初始收益率有望提供可观的收 入，并在经济下行时有望起到对冲作用，是组合中不可或缺的部分。 该报告预计，未来10年至15年新兴市场股票年化回报率为7.8%，高于全球水平。对此，盛楠解释称， 这主要得益于估值相对美股更具优势、营收增长更快，以及许多新兴市场开始更加注重股东回报，政策 鼓励股份回购与现金分红，长期有望支撑股票回报。 盛楠表示，摩根资管总体上看好亚洲股市，因其对科技与AI发展的敞口较大。具体来看，中国A股是新 ...

Core Insights - The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) is highlighted as a balanced investment option that combines growth potential with dividend income, making it suitable for long-term investors concerned about market corrections or economic downturns [1][9] ETF Overview - The Vanguard Value ETF tracks the CRSP U.S. Large Cap Value Index, focusing on large-cap value stocks determined by various financial metrics such as price-to-book ratios and price-to-earnings ratios [4] - The ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.04%, meaning an investor pays only $4 annually for every $10,000 invested [6] Performance Metrics - Recent performance data shows the Vanguard Value ETF's five-year average annual return at 12.40%, while the ten-year and fifteen-year averages are 11.55% and 11.77%, respectively [6] - In comparison, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has higher returns, with a five-year average of 14.91%, but includes a significant concentration in its top holdings [6] Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the Vanguard Value ETF include JPMorgan Chase (3.60%), Berkshire Hathaway (3.22%), and ExxonMobil (2.12%), collectively accounting for about 20% of the ETF's total value, indicating a less concentrated portfolio compared to the S&P 500 [8] Dividend Yield - The Vanguard Value ETF offers a dividend yield of 2.1%, which is significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of 1.1%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, particularly focusing on the valuation of U.S. stocks and the characteristics of bull and bear markets, while also introducing investment opportunities through global index funds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - This week, global stock markets experienced slight fluctuations with minimal movement [1][2][3][4] - The U.S. stock market has seen a slight decline, while non-U.S. markets have shown slight increases [2][3] - A-shares in China also experienced a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment [4] Group 2: Valuation Insights - Despite significant increases in U.S. stock indices over the years, they have rarely reached overvaluation, mostly remaining at normal valuation levels [5][6] - As of October this year, U.S. stocks touched high valuation levels, but have since corrected back to a normal high valuation [7][8] - The growth in earnings over the past two years has helped absorb some of the high valuations in the U.S. stock market [9] Group 3: Bull and Bear Market Characteristics - U.S. stock markets have experienced long bull and bear cycles, with each cycle lasting 15-20 years [12][13][14] - Long bear markets typically occur during economic recessions, as seen in the 1970s and from 2000 to 2010 [15][16] - The current economic environment has not yet entered a recession, and earnings growth remains the primary driver for stock index increases [22][23] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Historical data indicates that significant undervaluation opportunities in global stock indices occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [29] - The article highlights the introduction of a global index investment advisory portfolio that diversifies across various stock markets [34][35] - The portfolio aims to track global stock market performance, although there are current purchase limits for domestic investors [37] Group 5: Book Promotion - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters [40] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle, encouraging asset allocation towards equities [41][42]

2025年全年行情主要由科技股搭台唱戏，而其余板块多数涨幅平平，新旧消费、公共设施、房地产等指 数表现不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，多只个股甚至跌幅剧烈，个别主题基金也在慢牛中折损净值。 行情步入年末，当下已经来到跨年布局的时点。多名基金经理指出，科技股或将继续担纲行情主线，但明年的 行情或将更加均衡， 顺周期板块 、消费板块等被"冷落"的公司投资机遇凸显；尤其是部分经历供给侧改革的 公司，受益于产业出清，或将作为新的高股息资产方向。 科技股或将继续担纲主线 年内，无论是"翻倍股"还是"翻倍基"多被以人工智能为代表的科技板块包揽，然而在经过一整年轰轰烈烈的科 技牛市后，部分科技股估值已处于相对高位。近期，此前重仓 光模块 、PCB概念的多只基金，在行情剧烈震 荡中净值却表现平稳，不难推测这部分基金或已降仓应对。 风格或将更为均衡 分行业来看，年内科技股的"一枝独秀"也意味着其余板块难以跟上大盘涨幅，除了创新药等个别板块以外，新 旧消费、公共设施均走势不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，多只个股甚至跌幅剧烈，个别主题基金也在慢牛中折损净 值。 虽然看好科技板块是公募基金的共识，但也有基金经理认为，明年的行情或许更加均衡。 永赢基 ...

【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据美国《纽约时报》当地时间13日报道，英国今年5月与美国达成贸易协议。批评者当时就警告 称，该协议条款宽泛、承诺模糊。如今，这种模糊性所带来的风险正逐渐显现。 报道援引两名知情人士消息称，美国本月告知英国政府，将暂停履行两国之间一项技术协议，包括双方在人工智能和核能领 域的更多合作，因为美方官员认为，英国在降低贸易壁垒方面进展不足，未能兑现5月贸易协议中的相关承诺。 报道称，然而，这项技术协议的措辞提到，该协议仅在5月贸易协议（即"经济繁荣协议"）"取得实质性进展，得以正式确立 并实施的情况下"才会生效。如今，美国政府认为英国付出的努力不足。这表明，美政府仍在利用贸易政策作为杠杆，迫使外 国政府在贸易及其他政策领域作出更多让步。 英国政府发言人13日表示，英国致力于确保《科技繁荣协议》为两国民众带来机遇。美国贸易代表办公室发言人则拒绝置 评。 《纽约时报》称，美政府目前已与多个国家达成有限贸易协议，试图改变其所认为的不公平贸易行为，并促进美国出口。然 而，在将领导人之间的口头承诺转化为贸易协议文本的过程中，谈判人员却屡屡受阻。一些已经口头宣布的协议，至今仍未 最终敲定。此外，该媒体也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS Group indicates a slowdown in global economic growth but suggests that a recession can be avoided. Investment strategies should align with policy and market trends while diversifying to hedge risks, with a focus on technology, Asian markets excluding Japan, investment-grade bonds, and gold [1]. Macroeconomic Core Judgments - Global economic growth is slowing due to uncertainties in tariff policies, but the U.S. can avoid recession thanks to AI-related capital expenditures, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, inflation risks remain [1][19]. - The market is being driven by policy, with the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle and significant impacts from fiscal stimulus and tariff policies. The high U.S. debt level necessitates a low-interest-rate environment for financing [1]. Asset Allocation Views 1. Stock Market: Focus on Technology and Asian Markets - U.S. stock market: The technology sector is rated positively, driven by accelerated AI applications, while the overall U.S. stock market is rated neutral. The energy sector outlook is downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases suppressing oil prices [3][4]. - European stock market: Rated neutral, with improved economic growth prospects and attractive valuations, but tariffs and a stronger euro may pressure profit margins [5]. - Japanese stock market: Rated negatively due to high valuations and political uncertainties affecting policy execution, despite foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian markets excluding Japan: Rated positively, with valuations approximately 30% lower than global averages, supported by Chinese policy stimulus, strong Indian economic growth, and resilient earnings [7]. 2. Bond Market: Preference for Short-Duration Investment-Grade Bonds - Investment-grade (IG) bonds: Rated positively, with attractive valuations in a rate-cutting cycle, focusing on 2-3 year short-duration, high-rated A/BBB bonds. Consider extending duration to 7-10 years if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields exceed 4.5% [7][8]. - High-yield (HY) bonds: Rated negatively due to historically low spreads and insufficient risk compensation, with rising default risks [8]. - Long-term bonds: Rated cautiously, as the steepening yield curve presents unfavorable risk-reward ratios [8]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market: Mild Weakening of the U.S. Dollar - U.S. dollar: Rated negatively, with a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and fiscal concerns leading to a gradual depreciation, though the decline is not expected to be sharp due to high real yields and resilient U.S. equities [9]. - Favorable currencies: Euro (due to divergence in ECB and Fed policies) and Australian dollar (supported by improved U.S.-China trade relations) [10]. - Asian currencies: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, while the Singapore dollar may weaken due to expectations of policy easing [11]. 4. Commodities and Alternative Investments: Focus on Hedging and Scarcity - Commodities: Overall demand is weak, with a focus on strategic commodities such as precious metals (due to safe-haven demand), rare earths (for technology/defense needs), and coffee (limited supply and tariff impacts). Oil price forecasts are downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply [12]. - Gold: Rated strongly positively, supported by a weaker dollar, rate-cut expectations, ongoing central bank purchases, and de-dollarization trends, with a target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [12]. - Alternative investments: Private equity, debt, and hedge funds are rated positively for providing non-market directional returns, diversifying risks, and enhancing portfolio resilience [13]. Core Investment Strategies - Leverage-based portfolio: Simultaneously allocate to income-generating assets (like investment-grade bonds and high-dividend stocks) and long-term growth assets (like technology and Asian equities) to balance returns and risks [14]. - Diversification hedging: Use gold, hedge funds, and private assets to hedge against downside risks and avoid impacts from single market volatility [14]. - Trend-following allocation: Capitalize on trends such as AI proliferation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and valuation recovery in Asian markets while avoiding long-term bonds, high-yield debt, and weak sectors in mature markets [15].