Market Overview - The Straits Times Index in Singapore decreased by 0.28%, closing at 4356.20 points [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.59 billion shares, with a total turnover of 151 million Singapore dollars [1] - Out of the stocks traded, 277 rose while 305 fell [1] Top Performers - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding saw an increase of 1.88% [1] - Keppel Ltd experienced a rise of 1.51% [1] Underperformers - Hongkong Land recorded a decline of 2.7% [1] - Singapore Exchange (SGX) fell by 2.52% [1]

商务部网站消息，10月16日下午，商务部新闻发言人何咏前在北京主持例行新闻发布会。 彭博社记者：彭博社表示，在本周于华盛顿特区发表的评论中，美国财政部长贝森特称中国商务部副部 长李成钢在8月28日发表了一些"煽动性"的言论，并且未经邀请就出现在华盛顿特区，而且举止不敬。 贝森特还表示，李成钢曾说过"如果港口运输费用得以通过，中国将引发全球混乱"。请问对此有何评 论？李成钢副部长是否会针对这一评论作出回应？ 何咏前：美方有关言论严重歪曲事实。当地时间8月27-29日，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长赴美 国，与美方围绕落实中美两国元首通话共识，就中美经贸关系、落实中美经贸会谈共识等问题进行交流 沟通，并就美对华造船等行业301调查限制措施等向美方提出交涉。 近期，中方按照两国元首通话共识和中美经贸会谈共识，一直主动与美方就301调查限制措施进行磋商 沟通，秉持建设性姿态，并提出相关合作建议。但美方态度消极，执意实施限制措施，中方不得不采取 反制措施，包括依法依规对涉美船舶收取特别港务费。 美对华造船等行业301调查及限制措施是典型的单边主义和保护主义做法，严重损害中国相关产业利 益，也会推高美国内通胀，损害美港口 ...

Core Points - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. due to their involvement in supporting U.S. government investigations, which allegedly threaten China's sovereignty and security [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Hanwha's stock price fell sharply, with a maximum decline of 9% before closing down 5.8%. The South Korean benchmark index also dropped by 0.6% during the same trading session [2]. Group 2: Company Background - Hanwha Group, originally founded as Korea Explosives Co. in 1952, has evolved into a major conglomerate, with significant expansions through acquisitions and diversification into various sectors, including defense and aerospace [4][10][12]. - Hanwha Ocean, the second-largest shipbuilding company globally, was formed from the acquisition of Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, which faced financial difficulties before restructuring [13][12]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Hanwha Ocean has established a global production network across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, and the Americas, and is involved in the construction of advanced naval vessels, including LNG carriers and submarines [23][14]. - The company has recently made significant investments in the U.S., including the acquisition of the Philadelphia Shipyard, which is part of a broader strategy to integrate into the U.S. military-industrial complex [28][43]. Group 4: Implications of Sanctions - The sanctions specifically target Hanwha's U.S. operations, which are relatively new or inactive, suggesting that the immediate business impact may be limited. However, the sanctions serve broader strategic purposes, including reinforcing U.S. supply chains and limiting Hanwha's integration into Chinese markets [34][37]. - The sanctions may also create competitive advantages for other South Korean conglomerates, such as HD Hyundai, which are vying for U.S. defense contracts [39][41]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Hanwha Ocean's ongoing projects, including a $5 billion investment to enhance shipbuilding capacity at the Philadelphia Shipyard, indicate a commitment to expanding its role in U.S. defense logistics and ship maintenance [43][42]. - The geopolitical landscape suggests that South Korean companies may face increasing pressure to choose between U.S. and Chinese markets, impacting their strategic decisions moving forward [45][46].

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 10月15日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 960.34 | 2.09% | 420246 | 230686 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 美联储理事鲍曼：预计年底前还有两次降息，即将公布新压力测试提案。 欧央行行长拉加德：永远都不会说欧洲央行已经完成降息。 中国商务部发言人就美对华造船等行业301调查限制措施落地答记者问：中方对此强烈不满，坚决反 对；中国公布，对韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司采取反制措施；央视玉渊谭天：商务部5月以来 四次表态：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 【机构观点】 东海期货：贸易局势与降息预期共振，贵金属偏强运行 贵金属市场周二整体继续上行，沪金主力合约收至938.98/克，上涨2.7%；沪银主力合约收至11533元/千 克，上涨2.64%。受贸易局势不确定性和美联储降息预期升温的影响，贵金属继续走强，延续上行趋 势，但是短期波动加剧。短期贵金属偏强运行，中长期向上格局未改，操作方面，短期多头继续持有或 逢高减仓，中长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid escalating Sino - US game, the A - share market has shifted to a defensive stance. Short - term stock market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market has risen in the risk - aversion mode [2][3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver showed mixed performance, and short - term volatility may intensify. The long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, but caution is advised at present [4][5]. - Regarding copper, due to the intensifying Sino - US game, copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Although Rio Tinto's production increased in Q3, the global mine supply remains tight, and the cost still supports copper prices in the medium term [6][7]. - For aluminum, with attention on trade policy trends, the aluminum market's fluctuations will expand. The fundamental support is good, and prices are expected to remain favorable but with large fluctuations [8][9]. - Alumina is dominated by bearish factors and should be treated as a short - position asset due to supply pressure from long - term contracts, production methods, and imports [10]. - Zinc prices will continue to be weak as both macro and fundamental supports decline marginally. Pay attention to LME inventory and structural changes [11]. - Lead prices will be adjusted as fundamental pressure increases marginally, with supply increasing and consumption remaining flat [12]. - Tin prices will have a short - term high - level adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to strong supply - side support. Focus on the support of the 10 - day moving average [14]. - Industrial silicon will have a weak oscillation due to insufficient demand resilience. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from different sectors is lackluster [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate weakly. There is a possibility of further decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the support strength at previous lows [17]. - Nickel prices are at the lower end of the oscillation range and are expected to oscillate and rise. The macro environment is dovish, and although the market is cold, the spot resources are scarce [18][19]. - For soda ash and glass, due to poor post - holiday demand, prices will oscillate weakly [20]. - For steel products (螺卷), spot trading is stable, but futures prices are weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate and adjust. Port inventory has increased, and although demand is high, the upward space is limited [23]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to abundant supply and weakening sentiment, prices will oscillate and decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support range below [24][25]. - Palm oil prices will have a wide - range oscillation. Oil prices are weak, and the market is waiting for production and demand data and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on October 15, 2025, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [28] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on October 14, the SHFE copper main contract price decreased, and the LME copper price also declined. SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while LME inventory decreased. The spot price increased, and the LME copper premium decreased [29]. - For nickel, on October 14, the SHFE nickel main contract price decreased, and the LME nickel price also declined. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [29]. - For zinc, on October 14, the SHFE zinc main contract price decreased, and the LME zinc price declined. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For lead, on October 14, the SHFE lead main contract price decreased, and the LME lead price declined. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For aluminum, on October 14, the SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price decreased, and the LME aluminum price declined. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [30]. - For alumina, on October 14, the SHFE alumina main contract price decreased, and the national alumina spot average price also declined. SHFE warehouse inventory increased significantly [30]. - For tin, on October 14, the SHFE tin main contract price decreased, and the LME tin price declined. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory remained unchanged [31]. - For precious metals, on October 14, the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver remained mostly unchanged, with some changes in inventory and the gold - silver ratio [31]. - For steel products, on October 14, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [33]. - For iron ore, on October 14, the iron ore main contract price decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and freight rates [33]. - For coke and coking coal, on October 14, the coke main contract price increased, and the coking coal main contract price also increased. There were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [34]. - For lithium carbonate, on October 14, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and spreads [34]. - For industrial silicon, on October 14, the industrial silicon main contract price decreased, and the average prices of different grades in the East China region remained mostly unchanged [34]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, on October 14, the prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal futures decreased, and there were changes in import prices, spot prices, and spreads [35].

Core Viewpoint - The trade and tariff wars between China and the U.S. are detrimental, with no winners emerging from such conflicts, as emphasized by China's Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Relations - Over the past five months, China and the U.S. economic teams have held four meetings, reaching positive consensus to stabilize bilateral economic relations, providing relief to both nations and the global community [1] - Despite these discussions, the U.S. has continued to impose restrictions on Chinese entities, including adding multiple Chinese firms to export control lists shortly after the Madrid talks [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. has implemented measures that significantly harm China's legitimate rights and interests, disrupting international trade and maritime order, and threatening the stability of global supply chains [1] - Following threats from the U.S. to increase tariffs on China, U.S. stock and currency markets reacted negatively, causing global market panic and casting a shadow over the world economy [1] Call for Dialogue - The experience from both sides indicates that trade wars lead to mutual losses, and the only viable solution to disputes is through equality, respect, and reciprocity [1] - China expresses a willingness to avoid conflict but will not tolerate damage to its rights or the disruption of international trade rules, urging the U.S. to return to rationality and resolve issues through dialogue based on mutual respect and equal negotiation [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality. In response to increased external pressure, the government has frequently proposed growth - stabilizing policies. China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, but exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter. [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st. [2] - The US government is in a shutdown, and the market has relatively underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - In the commodity market, gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors are worthy of attention. It is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: China's economic data in August showed signs of weakness. To cope with external pressure, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan were introduced. In September, exports and imports in US dollars both exceeded expectations. However, exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter due to high bases and Sino - US frictions. On October 14th, A - shares closed down, while some commodity futures rose. [1] - **Tariff Frictions**: Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated recently. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on imported products. China has also taken counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit. [2] - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government has been shut down for three weeks, and economic data release has been affected. Trump has threatened to fire federal employees during the shutdown. The market has underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - **Commodity Market**: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations with long - term supply constraints. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. Gold is expected to continue to strengthen, mainly driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an overview of the mid - and upstream industries, including production and service sectors, and details the price and operation status of various industries at different levels. It also mentions relevant policies and responses to international trade issues [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission released an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the intelligent terminal industry from 2026 - 2027, aiming to increase the scale of intelligent computing power terminals. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries and infrastructure [1]. - **Service Industry**: In response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the US measures are unfair and discriminatory, and urged the US to correct its mistakes and resolve issues through dialogue [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices in the non - ferrous metal industry have rebounded, while egg prices in the agricultural industry have dropped significantly [2]. - **Midstream**: The PX industry in the chemical sector has a high operating rate; power plant coal consumption in the energy sector has decreased; and the asphalt industry in the infrastructure sector has reached a three - year high in operating rate [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities in the real estate market have slightly increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 14, the prices of eggs decreased by 19.12% year - on - year, while the prices of palm oil increased by 2.38% [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 9, the prices of copper increased by 7.20% year - on - year, and the prices of zinc increased by 1.45% [37]. - **Energy**: On October 14, the prices of WTI crude oil decreased by 6.24% year - on - year, and the prices of Brent crude oil decreased by 5.62% [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 14, the building materials comprehensive index decreased by 0.94%, and the concrete price index decreased by 0.35% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade events are volatile, with China taking a strong stance in the trade war, leading to a change from morning's volume - shrinking decline to afternoon's volume - expanding decline in the market. The market shows a defensive trend, with high - priced stocks falling and low - priced leading stocks rising. Hot sectors are in adjustment, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize and rebound. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Trade Situation**: Domestically, the Premier emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and improve the industrial ecosystem. Internationally, the US implemented final measures for a 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and China countered by banning transactions with 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices [1] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, A - share indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865.23 points and the ChiNext Index down 3.99%. Banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, Powell hinted at a possible halt in balance - sheet shrinkage and a potential 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month. US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44% to 46270.46 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to China's strong stance in the trade war, the market showed a defensive trend. High - priced stocks continued to fall, low - priced leading stocks rebounded, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2955.98, down 3.99%. Other major indexes also showed varying degrees of decline [14] - **Market Volume and Margin Trading**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 188092, an increase of 19813, and the open interest was 284388, an increase of 1029 [17] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. For instance, the basis of IF's current - month contract was 1.34, an increase of 9.72 [38] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report provides data on the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, including the spread between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, and the next - season and current - month [47][48]

2025 年 10 月 15 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 白银期货将 偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4549 和 4609 点，支撑位 4498 和 4447 点；IH2512 阻力位 2977 和 2990 点，支撑位 2941 和 2922 点；IC2512 阻力位 7129 和 7262 点，支撑位 6925 和 6797 点；IM2512 阻力位 7257 和 7365 点，支撑位 7095 和 6995 点。 十年期国债期货主力合约 T2512 大概率 ...