Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade negotiation results were slightly better than market expectations, which had a certain positive impact on the market, but the impact on different industries varied. Some industries were expected to improve in demand, while others still faced challenges such as supply - demand imbalance [23][11] - For most commodities, the short - term market was affected by the negotiation results, but the medium - and long - term trends still depended on their own supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [16][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.63%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - **Macro News**: Sino - US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended 24% of the counter - tariffs; traders reduced bets on ECB rate cuts; Goldman Sachs expected the RMB exchange rate to rise to 7 yuan per US dollar within a year [2] - **Funding**: The margin trading balance decreased by 4.7 billion yuan; the overnight Shibor rate rose 7.5 bp to 1.4970%, etc. [2] - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The emotional impact of the tariff policy has weakened. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index long positions on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined [5] - **News**: Sino - US reached an agreement on tariff adjustments in the Geneva economic and trade talks [5][6] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 43 billion yuan [6] - **Strategy**: The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the bond market faced short - term adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds were still cost - effective, and the long - end bonds were expected to have opportunities after the callback [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 2.52%, Shanghai silver fell 0.75%, while COMEX gold rose 0.37%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48% [7] - **Market Outlook**: Maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish view on gold. In the short term, gold prices may continue to correct, but in the medium term, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit will drive gold prices up [7][8] - **Strategy**: Wait for the gold price to correct significantly and then buy on dips, focusing on the support at 740 yuan/g. Temporarily observe the silver price, with the reference range of 7553 - 8380 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver main contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After rising, the copper price fell back. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the reference range of 77200 - 78500 yuan/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rebounded significantly. The domestic inventory decreased rapidly, but the consumption was seasonally weak. The price was expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 19600 - 20100 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract [12] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term zinc price may rebound [13][14] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term lead price showed a strong - side shock [15] - **Nickel**: The nickel price fell significantly. The supply exceeded demand, and it was recommended to hold short positions, with the reference range of 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai nickel main contract [16] - **Tin**: The tin price rose. The supply was short - term tight but was expected to ease, and the tin price might decline if the demand remained weak, with the reference range of 250000 - 270000 yuan for the domestic main contract [17] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was stable. The short - term bottom was expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to downstream orders, with the reference range of 63400 - 64800 yuan/ton for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract [18] - **Alumina**: The price rose. The supply was disturbed, and the cost support declined. It was recommended to observe in the short term, with the reference range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract AO2509 [19] - **Stainless Steel**: The price rose. The Sino - US negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply was worried about the Philippine export ban. The demand was weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and demand recovery [20] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The Sino - US trade tariff reduction might boost market confidence, and the demand for plates might improve marginally in the short term [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply was slightly reduced, and the demand was expected to peak and decline. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [24] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price was stable, with inventory accumulation and expected weak operation. The soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high. The medium - term supply was loose, and the price was expected to be weak [25][26] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of both rose. The manganese silicon was expected to stop falling and enter the shock stage, and the ferrosilicon was recommended to be observed or short - term tracked. The demand for both was expected to weaken [27][28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to observe and beware of price decline [31][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price rebounded. Thailand planned to postpone tapping, but the market had different expectations for production reduction. It was recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [34][37] - **Crude Oil**: The price rose. The current oil price was considered to be in the high - valuation range, and it was recommended to short on rallies [38] - **Methanol and Urea**: The prices of both rose. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. It was recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [39][40][41] - **Styrene**: The price rose. The cost and supply were affected by multiple factors, and the price was treated as a rebound [42] - **PVC**: The price rose. The supply and demand were weak, and the short - term price was expected to rebound and the medium - term to fluctuate weakly [43] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rose. The industry was in the de - stocking stage, and it was recommended to buy on dips when the port de - stocking was confirmed [44] - **PTA and p - Xylene**: The prices of both rose. They were in the maintenance season, and it was recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [45][46] - **Polyethylene PE**: The price rose. The supply might be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price was expected to fluctuate [47][48] - **Polypropylene PP**: The price rose. The supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly [49] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price was mainly stable. The short - term price fluctuated little, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the shock market [51] - **Eggs**: The price mostly rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean rose. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [53][54] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil was affected by production and exports, and the US soybean oil was expected to be boosted by policies. The oils and fats were expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [55][57] - **Sugar**: The price rebounded. The domestic sugar price might be high - volatile in the short term but was likely to decline in the future [58][59] - **Cotton**: The price rebounded. The Sino - US negotiation boosted the short - term price, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with attention to inventory changes [60]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market situation is complex, affected by macro - policies, international trade (especially tariff policies), and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different asset classes show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to buy certain index futures on dips; in the bond market, a cautious strategy is suggested for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds may have better performance; in the commodity market, various commodities have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][6]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with a decrease in trading volume. Macro news includes CPI and PPI data, and trade data. The liquidity is relatively loose. Due to the weakening of the emotional impact of tariff policies and the potential for domestic policy adjustment, it is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, or buy IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy exceeding expectations at the press conference, the long - term interest rate has already priced in the interest rate cut expectation, so a cautious strategy is recommended in the short term. The short - term bonds are expected to be more cost - effective. The long - term trend depends on the fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [5][6]. - **Precious Metals**: In the short term, precious metal prices are driven to be weak by the macro - environment and capital positions. However, considering the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year and the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, gold prices are expected to rise in the medium term after a short - term correction, and silver prices may show a strong performance when the Fed's easing expectations are concentrated. It is recommended to wait for a significant correction in gold prices and then buy long positions, and to wait and see or short on rallies for silver [7][8][9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to face greater pressure for shock adjustment due to the uncertain result of Sino - US trade negotiations, the tight supply of copper ore and recycled copper, and the marginal weakening of consumption [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. Although the domestic policy exceeds expectations, the bearish atmosphere in the commodity market continues, and the consumption is marginally weakening. However, the improvement in downstream demand after the short - term price correction provides strong support [12]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, the near - end is relatively strong, but in the medium term, due to the limited downstream purchasing sustainability and the pressure of imported zinc ingots, the zinc price may decline [13][14]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a box in the medium term, and the short - term price shows a weak shock [15]. - **Nickel**: The continuous weakness of the nickel - iron price is the main driver for the decline of the nickel price. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to range from 115,000 to 130,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and with the impact of tariffs on demand, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals lack positive drivers, and the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the operating disturbances of mines and salt factories, the price trend of lithium concentrate, and demand performance [18]. - **Alumina**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, the supply surplus trend is difficult to change, and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread opportunity [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply is at a high level, the market has large inventory pressure, and the supply - demand imbalance brings downward pressure on the price [20]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The traditional peak season is over, the demand for finished steel products has shifted downward, and the price may maintain a weak shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policy changes, terminal demand trends, and cost support [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore has a slight decline in shipping volume, and the demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main 09 contract may still be weak [24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is weak, with inventory accumulation. The soda ash supply is at a high level with a slight decline, and the price is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: For manganese silicon, the price may stop falling and enter a shock stage, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, the price may continue to decline, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price returns to range - bound. The implementation of Thailand's policy to postpone rubber tapping is the focus of the market. There are different views on the rise and fall of the price. It is recommended to adopt a neutral and short - term trading strategy [36][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been realized as expected. In the context of low inventory, buying on dips and short - term positive spread is a good position [40]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [41]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is expected to be relatively strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take partial profit on previous long positions and wait and see for new positions [42]. - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure, but the low port inventory may limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The industry is in a short - term de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips when the port de - stocking is realized [45]. - **PTA and p - Xylene**: Both are in the maintenance season. There is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term, but the short - term valuation is supported. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spread [46][47]. - **Polyethylene and Polypropylene**: The price of polyethylene is expected to fluctuate. The price of polypropylene is expected to be weakly volatile in May [48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The short - term pig price may be adjusted slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by emotions such as hoarding and second - fattening [51]. - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and soybean meal in China are expected to accumulate inventory in the next three months. The USDA report may have a short - term negative impact, but there may be a chance for a rebound after the negative news is exhausted [53][54]. - **Edible Oils**: The medium - term price of edible oils may decline, but the short - term may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the expected release of the new RVO rule in the United States [55][58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price may decline in the second and third quarters. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and inventory changes [61].

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows little short-term volatility, currently at 1.1296 [1] - The European Union proposed tariffs on $95 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [1] - The EU's tariff plan includes aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1] Group 2 - The EU is considering export restrictions on $4.4 billion worth of scrap metal and chemicals to the U.S. [1] - The tariff plan also covers meat, fish, and agricultural products [1] - The EU will initiate a dispute resolution process against the U.S. regarding automotive and reciprocal tariff issues at the World Trade Organization [1]

1. 铜库存194275吨，增加300吨。 2. 铝库存405575吨，减少2000吨。 3. 镍库存198312吨，减少1470吨。 4. 锌库存171400吨，减少1525吨。 5. 铅库存255150吨，减少1550吨。 6. 锡库存2755吨，持平。 金十期货5月8日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： LME有色金属库存日报 ...

铝库存407575吨，减少4000吨。 镍库存199782吨，减少300吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存193975吨，减少1650吨。 ...

宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.13%，创指+1.97%，科创 50+1.39%，北证 50+3.21%，上证 50+0.55%，沪深 300+1.01%， 中证 500+1.93%，中证 1000+2.57%，中证 2000+3.25%，万得微盘+3.27%。两市合计成交 13362 亿，较上 一日+1669 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、央行、证监会等部门 7 日上午 9 时将发声，将介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 2、4 月财新中国服务业 PMI 降至 50.7，为七个月来最低。 3、外交部：中方和欧洲议会决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制。 资金面：融资额-156.09 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+5.80bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.30bp 至 3.0936%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6282%，信用利差-0.33bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+3.00bp 至 4.36%，中美利差-2.97bp 至-273bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.30，中证 500:28.76，中证 1000:40.98，上 ...

2025 年 4 月行业信息跟踪月报 大宗消费品、光伏行业的制造端景气度回落，厂商生产信心不强 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ➢ 4 月行业信息思考：大宗消费品、光伏行业的制造端景气度边际回落明显，政策加码 鼓励的必要性正在增强 4 月制造业景气度回落，其中，消费品行业和装备制造业的制造业 PMI 数值下跌至不景 气区间。从 4 月行业高频数据来看，我们确实看到属于消费品行业和装备制造业的大宗消 费品（家电、汽车）以及光伏的制造端在 4 月景气度回落明显。具体来看：①汽车方面， 尽管 4 月汽车销量在上海车展举办、大量热点新车扎堆上市的推动下预期维持较优增长， 但生产端已现走弱迹象，与乘用车关联度更高的汽车半钢胎开工率较 3 月回落显著，且回 落幅度大于季节性。②家电方面，尽管销售端数据维持相对亮眼的表现，但排产端来看， 4 月三大白电（空调、冰箱、洗衣机）排产同比增速较 3 月显著回落。除此以外，与汽车、 家电制造业关联度较强的钢铁细分项：热轧、冷轧，自 3 月中旬以来，表观需求量呈现从 近些年高位持续回落的趋势。③光伏方面，受"新老划断"政策影响，今年以来厂商纷纷 加速建设和备案，短期推高需求。然而 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On May 2, 37 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 23.26 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 179 million [1]. Group 1: Buyback Details - The company with the highest buyback amount on May 2 was Green Bamboo Bio-B, which repurchased 1.76 million shares for HKD 39.71 million, with a maximum price of HKD 23.00 and a minimum price of HKD 21.95 [1][2]. - China Hongqiao repurchased 2.79 million shares for HKD 39.39 million, with a maximum price of HKD 14.20 and a minimum price of HKD 14.02, bringing its total buyback amount for the year to HKD 20.74 billion [1][2]. - Swire Pacific A repurchased 0.33 million shares for HKD 22.59 million, with a maximum price of HKD 68.95 and a minimum price of HKD 66.95, totaling HKD 15.26 billion for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Notable Buybacks - AIA Group conducted multiple buybacks throughout the year, with a total buyback amount of HKD 7.69 billion, including a buyback of HKD 16.07 million on May 2 [2]. - The company with the highest number of shares repurchased on May 2 was Ying Group, which bought back 7 million shares [1][2]. - Other notable companies in terms of buyback volume included China Hongqiao and Four Seasons Pharmaceutical, with repurchases of 2.79 million shares and 2.68 million shares, respectively [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of safe-haven assets in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting the shift from traditional assets like gold to new alternatives such as energy metals and digital currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Safe-Haven Assets - Historical evolution of safe-haven tools has undergone three revolutions, indicating a shift from physical assets to digital consensus [2]. - The current market faces a contradiction where the collapse of the old system outpaces the establishment of a new order, forcing capital to seek temporary refuge [2]. Group 2: New Types of Safe-Haven Assets - Energy metals are emerging as hard currencies in the context of green inflation, with global clean energy investment surpassing fossil fuels at $1.8 trillion [3]. - The financial attributes of these metals are strengthening, as evidenced by the correlation of copper inventory to price dropping from 0.68 to 0.21, indicating a shift towards strategic reserve asset logic [3]. - Bitcoin's institutional holding has reached 36%, but its high annual volatility of 48% still deters conservative investors, leading to the emergence of new crypto assets that aim to differentiate between risk and safe-haven assets [3]. Group 3: Alternative Sovereign Assets - The decline of traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is noted, with small country currencies rising due to resource endowment and digital infrastructure [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $4 trillion, making it comparable to the fourth-largest stock market globally [4]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow 42 times by 2030, with 70% of reserves concentrated in "lithium triangle" countries [4]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Sovereign Wealth Funds - Tracking global sovereign wealth funds reveals a trend of seeking new frameworks for risk diversification as traditional asset correlations rise above 0.8 [4]. - The Norwegian government pension fund has increased its copper futures allocation from 0.3% to 2.1% [5]. - Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is establishing a $30 billion space technology fund, indicating a strategic shift towards innovative asset classes [5]. Group 5: Survival Strategies in the New Safe-Haven Era - Investors are advised to build a three-dimensional defense system, focusing on risk, time, and space dimensions [5]. - Short-term strategies include increasing exposure to energy metal ETFs and digital stablecoins, while long-term strategies involve investing in disruptive technologies like nuclear fusion and quantum computing [5]. - Geographic safety zones should maintain a minimum of 15% in physical assets, with digital asset wallets diversified across at least three jurisdictions [5].