Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 2.53% on August 15, with Jintian Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67, up 1.6% [1] - Jintian Co. saw a closing price of 11.39, with a rise of 10.05%, and a trading volume of 2.23 million shares [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net inflow of 841 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 356 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates that Hai Liang Co. had a net inflow of 183 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 122 million yuan from retail investors [3] - The overall trading volume for the industrial metal sector was significant, with various companies showing notable price movements and trading volumes [1][2][3]

Group 1: Financing and Investment Trends - The number of investors participating in margin trading reached a year-high of 523,400 on August 13, 2025, marking a 9.67% increase from the previous trading day [1] - The total number of individual margin trading investors stands at 7.56 million, while institutional investors number 50,004 [1] - In Q2 2025, 84% of complaints against brokerages were related to brokerage services, with issues primarily concerning service fees and account management [1] Group 2: Fundraising and Market Performance - E Fund's Value Return Mixed Fund announced an early closure of its fundraising, with the scale potentially exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] - The Bluetooth headset market in China saw a shipment volume of approximately 59.98 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [2] Group 3: Display and Technology Sector - OLED display shipments are projected to increase by 86% in 2025, driven by strong demand from the gaming sector [3] - The investment in China's optoelectronic display industry reached 103.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 26.7% [4] Group 4: CPU Market Insights - Global client CPU shipments grew by 13% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth [5] Group 5: Corporate Financial Performance - JD Group reported a revenue of 356.7 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a 22.4% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased to 6.2 billion yuan [9] - Net income for NetEase in Q2 2025 was 27.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.4% year-on-year growth [10] - China Telecom's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 23.02 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year [11] Group 6: Project Wins and Production Resumption - Jiadian Co. announced a successful bid for a nuclear power equipment project worth 609 million yuan [12] - Gansu Energy Chemical's subsidiary resumed production at the Jinhe Coal Mine after passing safety inspections [13] Group 7: Company Earnings Reports - Guoyao Yizhi reported a net profit of 666 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.43% year-on-year [14] - Hanjia Design expects a net profit increase of 303.2% to 343.5% for the first half of 2025 [15] - Tongda Power reported a net profit of 42.64 million yuan, a 32.49% increase year-on-year [16] - Wangsu Technology's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 37.3 million yuan, up 25.33% year-on-year [17] - Alloy Investment reported a net profit of 4.58 million yuan, a 44.12% increase year-on-year [18] - Yifan Pharmaceutical's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 30.4 million yuan, reflecting a 19.91% increase year-on-year [19] Group 8: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, ending an eight-day winning streak, with over 4,600 stocks declining across the market [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic and financial situation shows positive trends with the growth of social financing scale and M2, but single - month credit data fluctuations should not be over - emphasized. The markets of various commodities present different trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity. The stock market has positive factors supporting it, but short - term fluctuations may increase after the index breakthrough [8][19] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic News - From January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. In late July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Do not over - focus on single - month credit data [8] - Market regulators and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plan to strengthen the management of intelligent connected new energy vehicles, emphasizing safety prompts and usage instructions for driving assistance systems and requiring filing for OTA upgrades [8] - Four departments including the central bank explained two discount interest policies, which are an innovative exploration to support consumption. Policy effectiveness will be evaluated after expiration [8] - In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [9] - The US Treasury Secretary called for the Fed to start a new round of interest rate cuts, with a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September [10] Morning Meeting Views on Major Commodities Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term but will not change the downward trend [12] - On August 13, the sugar futures main contract rose 1.22%. Fundamentals show that Brazilian supply pressure is partially offset by domestic consumption season. It is recommended to go long at low prices with support at 5630 yuan [12] - On August 13, the corn futures main contract rose 0.89%. With new supplies and policy support, the market is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to trade within the 2250 - 2300 yuan range [12] - The national pig price is falling steadily. Supply pressure and weak consumption lead to a bearish market sentiment, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [12] - The national egg spot price is stable. Supply is temporarily in excess, but prices are expected to rise steadily. It is recommended to avoid going long [13] - ICE US cotton futures rose significantly. Zhengzhou cotton was driven by the external market. The market may be strongly volatile in the short term, with support at around 14080 yuan [13] Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price has a slight increase. With slow demand and increasing inventory, the futures price may continue to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the UR2601 contract in the 1730 - 1800 yuan/ton range [13] - The caustic soda market is stable. With the approaching peak demand season, the 2509 contract has stabilized. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [13] - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. The downstream coke price increase is partially implemented, and the short - term price may be under pressure but the callback space is limited [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices continue to oscillate. Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level adjustments with increasing inventory [14] - Alumina supply is increasing, and the spot price is rising weakly. It is expected to continue range - bound trading, paying attention to bauxite supply disruptions [14] - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are falling. With weakening market sentiment, the prices are expected to fall slightly in a volatile manner, but there is still upward momentum [14] - The double - silicon market is in a range - bound and upward - trending pattern. Supply has increased, demand is weak in the off - season, and it is mainly driven by macro and coal policies [14][17] - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate have a structural contradiction. It is recommended to trade in the 84000 - 88000 yuan range, following the trend if it breaks through 88000 yuan [17] Options and Finance - On August 13, A - share indexes rose collectively, with heavy trading volume. Index futures and options showed different trends. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [17][19] - The A - share market has positive factors, but short - term fluctuations may increase after the index breakthrough. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, focusing on IF, IM, and IC [19]

Market Overview - The U.S. CPI data has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a significant rise in Hong Kong's stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index breaking the 25,000 mark, closing up 2.58% at 25,613.67 points [1] - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow of over 900 billion HKD since the beginning of the year, indicating increased retail investor participation [1] - The upcoming mid-year earnings disclosures and company outlooks are critical for the continuation of the Hong Kong stock market rally [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Tencent Holdings (00700) reached a four-year high before its earnings report, closing up 4.74% at 586 HKD, contributing 98.74 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Tencent's Q2 revenue was 184.5 billion CNY, a 15% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 55.63 billion CNY, up 17% [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093) up 6.77%, WH Group (00288) up 6.23%, while Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Xinyi Solar (00968) saw declines [2] Sector Highlights - Large technology stocks showed strong performance, with Alibaba rising over 6% and Tencent gaining nearly 5% [3] - The healthcare sector was robust, with stocks like Zhonghui Biopharma (02627) surging 19.45% following the announcement of the national medical insurance drug list [3][4] - The metals sector was active due to rising expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, with companies like Jiangxi Copper (00358) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) seeing significant gains [6] Earnings Reports - Several companies reported strong mid-year earnings, with Reading Group (00772) up 19.62%, Tencent Music (01698) up 15.63%, and Minmetals Resources (01208) up 10.43% [5] - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue grew 17.9% to 8.44 billion CNY, with a net profit increase of 33% [5] - Reading Group's revenue reached 3.19 billion CNY, with a net profit growth of 68.5% [5] Notable Stock Movements - New Fire Technology Holdings (01611) surged 30% amid news of U.S. regulatory changes allowing alternative assets in retirement accounts [8] - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) rose 25.75% after announcing a share issuance to Baiyang Pharmaceutical [9] - Evergrande Property (06666) increased by 6.25% following news of its parent company's delisting decision [10] - 361 Degrees (01361) fell 9.29% after reporting lower-than-expected profit growth [11]

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 609109 | 金田股份 | 2.65 Z | 18.67% | -1.34 Z | -9.44% | -1.31 Z | -9.23% | | 603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 2.50 Z | 8.34% | -1334.75万 | -0.44% | -2.37 Z | -7.89% | | 601020 | 华钰矿业 | 1.78亿 | 9.96% | -1.36 Z | -7.61% | -4201.09万 | -2.35% | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 1.21亿 | 11.83% | -4329.25万 | -4.24% | -7757.62万 | -7.59% | | 000630 铜陵有色 | | 1.16亿 | 4.43% | 4520.90万 | 1.72% | -1.6216 | -6.15% | | 300697 | 电工合金 | 93 ...

Core Viewpoint - The German economic climate index has significantly declined due to the new trade agreement between the EU and the US, along with a contraction in Germany's economy in the second quarter [1] Economic Indicators - The economic climate index for Germany in August is reported at 34.7, a sharp decrease from 52.7 in July [1] - The current economic situation index has dropped from negative 59.5 in July to negative 68.6, indicating further deterioration in the economic conditions of Germany [1] Industry Impact - The chemical and pharmaceutical sectors are experiencing a notable decline in expectations, while the machinery, metal, and automotive industries are also facing significant challenges [1] - The contraction in Germany's GDP for the second quarter is reported at a decrease of 0.1% [1] - The slowdown in US demand has negatively impacted market confidence, as US companies had previously engaged in bulk purchasing to avoid tariffs, leading to a depletion of future demand [1]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The equity market has shown signs of recovery, with A-shares rebounding after a previous decline, maintaining trading volume above 1.6 trillion [1][8][11] - Investor confidence remains high, supported by favorable CPI data and a stable domestic economic environment, while overseas markets are also showing signs of recovery due to eased tariff concerns and rising interest rate expectations [2][11][12] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - A-shares have experienced a strong upward trend, with daily average trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion, indicating a healthy market sentiment [2][11] - The policy direction is clear, with the central bank reaffirming a loose monetary environment and regulatory bodies tightening IPO approvals, which collectively support market stability [2][12] - There are structural opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in the communication sector, while "anti-involution" policies may benefit industries like solar energy and new energy [12][13] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market remains in a volatile state, with short-term policy support providing some relief, but long-term weakness persists due to the strong attraction of equity markets [33][34] - The bond market is expected to face pressure from the equity market's strong performance, which may lead to capital outflows from bonds [33][34] Group 4: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market has seen a decline, with gold performing relatively well while energy commodities like oil have experienced significant drops [39][40] - The overall outlook for the commodity market remains uncertain, with expectations of continued volatility rather than a clear upward trend [39][40]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6633399 | 永杉坪 / | 10.45 | -4.22% | 80.41万 | 8.38亿 | | 002192 | 融捷股份 | 37.40 | -3.86% | 20.60万 | 7.73亿 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂V | 39.45 | -2.62% | 102.62万 | 40.57亿 | | 002756 | 永兴材料 | 36.53 | -2.43% | 14.98万 | 5.47亿 | | 000762 | 西藏矿业 | 22.94 | -2.05% | 26.43万 | 6.06亿 | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 40.80 | -1.78% | 4.92万 | 2.01亿 | | 300618 | 塞锐钻业 | 37.21 | -1.59% | 9.36万 | 3.47亿 | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 44.24 | -1.38% | 58.54万 | 25.73亿 | | 301219 | 腾远 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No content provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The AH premium has significantly declined due to factors such as the acceleration of southbound capital inflows, the increasing attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks' dividend - paying sectors, and the improvement of the Hong Kong stock market structure. It may converge in the long - term but cannot be completely eliminated [24]. - The short - term bond market lacks a clear main line, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield ranging between 1.6 - 1.8%. The short - end is benefited by loose liquidity, while the long - end is affected by the stock market and domestic demand policies. It is recommended to seize coupon opportunities of ordinary credit bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and certificates of deposit [24]. - The margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan again, reflecting the increasing market activity. The current A - share market has different characteristics from 2015, and the overall performance this year is expected to be better than that in 2013 [25]. - The short - term stock market may enter a consolidation period, and the focus may shift to style switching. For convertible bonds, it is recommended to reduce positions, take profits on high - priced varieties, and adjust the portfolio structure [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also lower than the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff [2]. - Ant Group and China National Rare Earth Group have refuted the rumor of jointly building a rare - earth RMB stablecoin [2]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 85.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points in October is 55.1% [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - The suspension of lithium mine production by CATL has led to a full - board limit - up of lithium carbonate futures contracts, driving up the prices of domestic lithium carbonate spot and lithium mine stocks [4]. - The national standard for the transportation safety and multimodal transport of power lithium batteries will be implemented on February 1, 2026 [4]. - As of August 8, the inventories of various metals such as tin, zinc, and aluminum showed different changes [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In June, the copper production of Escondida and Collahuasi mines in Chile decreased year - on - year [7]. - Codelco is gradually resuming the operation of its largest copper mine, El Teniente [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The refined oil price may experience the fourth suspension of adjustment this year due to the rise and then fall of international oil prices during the current pricing cycle [8]. - Chongqing has issued regulations on the development and construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation [9]. - India plans to launch a credit guarantee plan and has released $3.4 billion in oil rescue compensation [9]. - In June, Colombia's natural gas and oil production decreased year - on - year [9]. - UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to $62 per barrel by the end of this year and rise to $65 per barrel by mid - 2026 [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Mexico has set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes after the US imposed tariffs [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July increased by 3.82% compared to June [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 11, the central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration are soliciting public opinions on the implementation regulations of the VAT law [14]. - The central settlement company simplifies the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [14]. - The China Inter - bank Market Dealers Association strengthens the self - discipline management of underwriting quotes in the inter - bank bond market [15]. - The science and technology innovation bond market has expanded rapidly, and efforts are needed to improve the recognition of private enterprise science and technology innovation bonds [16]. - The debt risk of real estate enterprises is gradually being resolved, and the industry is moving towards a new stage [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and Treasury bond futures closed down [18]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds of AVIC Industry - Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. and Treasury bonds rose, while some other bonds fell [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, and the performance of individual convertible bonds varied [19]. - Money market rates showed different trends, and the yields of financial bonds and Treasury bonds in auctions were announced [20]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, while the central parity rate was depreciated [23]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The AH premium has declined significantly, and it may converge in the long - term [24]. - The short - term bond market lacks a clear main line, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield ranges between 1.6 - 1.8% [24]. - The margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan again, and the A - share market is more active [25]. - The short - term stock market may enter a consolidation period, and convertible bond investment strategies need adjustment [25]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market was operating at a high level, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for six consecutive days. Most stocks rose, and the trading volume expanded [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly, and the performance of different sectors varied [30]. - Many funds have suspended large - scale subscriptions due to the A - share market recovery [30]. - Four public funds have announced self - purchase plans for equity funds [31].