引子： 最近一则新闻在金融圈炸开了锅——特朗普公开施压美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，华尔街却集体站出来捍卫美联储的独立性。这看似是一场政治博弈，实则暗藏 市场运行的深层逻辑。作为一个浸淫市场多年的量化投资者，我深知新闻背后往往隐藏着更重要的信息差。今天，就让我们拨开迷雾，看看这场风波背后的 市场真相。 一、政治博弈下的市场暗流 美国总统特朗普近日加强了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评力度，甚至公开表示希望后者"主动辞职"。这一表态逆转了他此前"无意解雇鲍威尔"的立场，引发市 场对美联储独立性的担忧。华尔街主要金融机构高管纷纷表态支持美联储独立运作，美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉、高盛CEO所罗门、摩根大通CEO戴蒙等重量级 人物都发表了维护美联储独立性的言论。 表面上看，这是一场博弈。但作为一个数据派投资者，我更关注的是这背后反映出的市场运行规律。在A股市场摸爬滚打这些年，我深刻体会到：新闻往往 是滞后的，真正影响市场的力量早已在数据中显现。 二、新闻的滞后性与市场的提前量 俗话说"买传闻，卖新闻"，这句话道出了A股市场独有的"抢跑特性"。国外股票市场是根据已知信息做交易判断，新的利好会直接反映在股价上；而我们的 A股市场是打提前量 ...

国防金属需求的结构性增长 国防金属需求估算面临挑战：各国鲜少公布详细支出细项，且装备的金属含量难以精确量化。然而，北 约支出目标的升级是关键驱动因素。2024年，北约国家(除美国外)在核心国防上的支出为5070亿美元;若 达到3.5%的GDP目标，将额外增加3710亿美元支出。 以德国为例，其国防预算计划从2024年的624亿欧元增至2029年的1540亿欧元，其中设备采购占比 40%，推高金属需求。 美国国防部2009年审计显示，铝和铜的年需求分别为27.5万吨和10.6万吨；美银证券预计2030年将增至 160万吨和55.3万吨，主要受设备支出主导。例如，基础设施投资中，每百万美元支出需消耗3吨铝和4 吨铜，与北约基础设施目标(占GDP 1.5%)匹配。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报指出，随着世界愈发多极化，国防支出及其对金属需求的拉动正 受到更多关注。国防支出正在上升，北约最新承诺将GDP的5%用于国防便凸显这一点。若支出更侧重 于装备和基础设施而非人员（目前看来如此），则矿产将不成比例地受益。 乌克兰战后重建被单独列为金属需求的"第二战场"。世界银行等机构估计直接损毁已增至1700亿美元， 重 ...

LME取消了2725吨至39750吨铅的看跌权证。 ...

伦敦金属交易所(LME)：铝库存增加3675吨，镍库存减少6吨，锌库存增加125吨，铅库存增加1725吨， 铜库存增加1150吨，锡库存持平。 ...

Market Overview - The three major stock indices in China collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3516.83 points, up 0.37% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10873.62 points, up 1.43% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2269.33 points, up 1.76% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The electronic components sector led the gains, with companies like Mankun Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, and Shengyi Electronics rising over 13% [4] - The CPO concept showed strong performance throughout the day, while the military equipment sector was also active, with companies like Zongheng Co. and Chenxi Aviation seeing significant increases [5][6] - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced declines, with Shandong Gold dropping over 2% [7] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as electronics, computers, and communications, while there was a net outflow from public utilities, real estate, and coal sectors [8] - Specific stocks like Changshan Beiming and Runhe Software saw net inflows of 2 billion yuan and 925 million yuan, respectively [9] - On the outflow side, companies like China Electric Power and Sunshine Power faced sell-offs of 444 million yuan and 397 million yuan, respectively [10] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted that overseas liquidity remains volatile, with a short-term rebound in the US dollar, leading to limited domestic opportunities in July [12] - CITIC Securities highlighted that mid-year performance reports could drive market sentiment towards technology sectors [13] - Galaxy Securities mentioned that the large financial sector is entering a phase of rotation and adjustment [14]

Core Viewpoint - The limited marginal increase in supply, along with improved expectations for both export and domestic demand, is likely to drive a rebound in domestic rare earth prices. The global rare earth supply landscape is undergoing profound restructuring due to de-globalization, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies, as well as related overseas companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, the average prices of rare earth materials such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide are expected to decline by -26% and -37% respectively, with a gradual stabilization starting in Q2 2024 [2][6]. - The average price of neodymium-iron-boron (50H) is projected to decrease by -23% year-on-year in 2024, with a quarterly price trend showing a slight recovery in subsequent quarters [6][18]. - Domestic demand for rare earth materials is expected to remain strong, with significant growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and variable frequency air conditioners, which are projected to increase by 39%, 14%, and 18% respectively in 2024 [7][18]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of rare earths is becoming increasingly controlled domestically, with a total mining and separation quota of 270,000 tons set for 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [7][12]. - The global supply chain for rare earths is being reshaped, with countries like the US and EU accelerating local industry chain construction to ensure supply chain security and stability [2][82]. - The export of rare earth materials is expected to recover, particularly in the context of the "electrification of everything" trend, which is anticipated to drive demand for rare earth permanent magnets [3][18]. Group 3: Company Performance - Domestic rare earth companies are facing significant profit declines, with a projected 81% drop in net profit for four major upstream rare earth companies in 2024, while downstream permanent magnet companies are expected to see a 54% decline [2][18]. - The performance of US-based MP Materials and Australian Lynas is also declining, with MP Materials expected to report a net profit drop of 369% in 2024, while Lynas anticipates a 75% decrease in net profit [62][75]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of gradual improvement in the financial performance of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies starting in Q2 2024, as prices stabilize [18][37]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The domestic rare earth industry is characterized by six major trends, including improved supply control capabilities, price discrepancies between domestic and international markets, and ongoing overseas resource layout by companies like Shenghe Resources [89][90]. - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is being driven by emerging applications in humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors, with significant growth expected in these areas [95][97]. - Research and development of heavy rare earth-free permanent magnet materials are accelerating, with companies achieving stable production of high-performance magnets without heavy rare earth elements [99][105].

据商务部市场运行监测系统显示，7月7日至13日，全国食用农产品市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）上 涨0.1%，生产资料市场价格比前一周下降0.3%。 食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤4.12元，上涨0.7%，其中西红柿、生菜、莴笋分别上涨 10.7%、5.6%和5.3%。水产品批发价格略有上涨，其中鲢鱼、鲤鱼、鲫鱼分别上涨0.9%、0.7%和0.7%。 肉类批发价格以涨为主，其中猪肉每公斤20.84元，上涨0.8%，牛肉上涨0.8%，羊肉下降0.3%。粮油批 发价格稳中有降，其中面粉、花生油均与前一周持平，菜籽油、豆油、大米分别下降0.4%、0.2%和 0.2%。禽产品批发价格略有下降，其中鸡蛋、白条鸡分别下降1.5%和0.4%。6种水果平均批发价格小幅 下降，其中香蕉、葡萄、柑橘分别下降2.8%、2.0%和0.8%。 生产资料市场：有色金属价格小幅下降，其中铜、铝、锌分别下降2.1%、0.1%和0.1%。成品油批发价 格略有下降，其中0号柴油、92号汽油、95号汽油分别下降0.3%、0.1%和0.1%。基础化学原料价格小幅 波动，其中纯碱、甲醇、聚丙烯分别下降0.9%、0.7%和0.4%，硫酸上涨 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月17日（周四）收盘下跌0.16%报770.78元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月17日（周四）收盘上涨0.11%报9124.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

7月17日，A股三大指数震荡走强，截至收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深成指涨1.43%。全天成交1.56万亿元，较前一交易日增量985亿元；超3500股上 涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | +13.05 | +0.37% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | +152.81 | +1.43% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2269.33 | +39.14 | +1.76% | 盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，剑桥科技、长飞光纤等多股涨停；医药板块集体走强，成都先导、信立泰、亚太药业等涨停封板；军工股活跃， 中航沈飞创历史新高；PCB、航天航空、医疗服务等板块涨幅居前。另一方面，贵金属板块全天低位震荡，山东黄金跌超2%；保险、银行、电 力、房地产等板块跌幅居前。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 . | 涨跌 | 涨幅� | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601003 柳钢股份 | | 5.57 | +0.51 ...

盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，军工装备板块活跃，医药、消费电子、钢铁板块涨幅居前；贵金属板块低 迷，地产、银行、燃气、电力股跌幅居前。 7月17日，三大股指集体收涨，沪指报收3516.83点，涨0.37%；深成指报收10873.62点，涨1.43%；创业 板指报收2269.33点，涨1.76%。沪深两市全天成交额1.54万亿，较上个交易日放量973亿。全市场超 3500只个股上涨，超1600只个股下跌。 盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，军工装备板块活跃，医药、消费电子、钢铁板块涨幅居前；贵金属板块低 迷，地产、银行、燃气、电力股跌幅居前。 | 板块名称 | | 涨幅♣ 主力净量 主力金额 | | 板块名称 | 涨幅合 | 主力净量 | 王力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元件 | +4.64% | 1.95 | +26.95 Z | 贵金属 | -1.01% | -1.67 | -5.51 乙 | | 兵装重组概念 | +4.22% | 2.04 | +7.747 | 保险 | -0.71% | -0.02 | +8580万 | | ...