2025Q1农业板块公募基金重仓持股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持 2025Q1农业板块公募重仓持股环比下降，受中美关税升级催化，2025Q2农业板块公募重仓持股或环比 提升。2023Q4以来农业板块公募重仓持股环比持续下降，2025Q1农业板块总流通市值降至12367亿元， 环比-0.40%，占A股流通市值比重降至1.69%，环比-0.03pct。从公募重仓持股看，2025Q1农业板块重仓 持股市值占公募股票投资总市值0.40%(环比-0.03pct，自2023Q4高点-0.44pct)。2024年3月末以来中美互 加关税加码升级，农业板块避险属性凸显投资逻辑增强，预计2025Q2农业板块公募重仓持股或环比提 升。 细分板块看，2025Q1养殖细分板块公募重仓持股同比下降明显，其他子板块持股占比相对稳定。 2025Q1农业细分板块中养殖/饲料/种植/动保/农产品加工公募重仓持股占比分别为0.19%、0.17%、 0.03%、0.01%、0.003%，分别同比-0.31、-0.01、-0.03、-0.01、0.00pct，因持仓占比绝对点位已处低水 平，故各农业细分板块持仓占比环比均微降。受猪周期影响，养殖板块 ...

Group 1 - The core index, CN Consumption Composite Index, closed at 8775.28 points, with a monthly increase of 0.61%, a quarterly increase of 7.78%, and a year-to-date increase of 1.78% [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities from mainland Chinese enterprises, classified according to the China Securities Index industry classification standards [1] - The top ten holdings in the CN Consumption Composite Index include Kweichow Moutai (27.04%), Wuliangye (7.02%), Yili (5.12%), Muyuan Foods (3.07%), Shanxi Fenjiu (2.96%), Luzhou Laojiao (2.64%), Wens Foodstuff (2.55%), Nongfu Spring (1.97%), Haitian Flavoring (1.96%), and Dongpeng Beverage (1.63%) [1] Group 2 - The market distribution of the CN Consumption Composite Index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 54.65%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 34.46%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 10.65%, and other exchanges have negligible shares [2] - In terms of industry composition, the index is heavily weighted towards alcohol (50.76%), followed by food (21.30%), breeding (13.38%), soft drinks (6.02%), planting (3.20%), beauty care (2.71%), household goods (1.94%), and tobacco (0.58%) [2] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [3] - Adjustments to the index sample occur when there are changes in industry classification due to special events or when a sample company is delisted [3]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize at the support levels of 3100 points for the Shanghai Composite Index and 9200 points for the Shenzhen Component Index, leading to a structural market trend favoring domestic demand, domestic substitution, and high-dividend sectors [2][5][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments due to escalating trade tensions with the United States, but showed signs of stabilization in the latter half of the week [3]. - Early in the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.34% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 9.66%, with over 5200 stocks declining and nearly 3000 hitting the daily limit down [4]. - Sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the Apple supply chain, automotive parts, and communication equipment, faced the largest declines, while technology stocks showed some recovery later in the week [4]. - The agricultural sector became a market highlight following the release of a policy aimed at advancing agricultural technology and promoting independent innovation in seed industries, leading to active stock performance in related companies [4]. - The high-speed rail sector saw significant gains, and the duty-free segment of consumption benefited from new tax refund measures aimed at attracting foreign tourists [4]. Market Outlook - In the context of overseas market declines and ongoing trade tensions, the health and stability of the A-share market are deemed crucial [5]. - Institutions such as Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin announced plans to increase their holdings in A-shares starting April 7, indicating confidence in the market [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration's announcement to adjust the regulatory ratio of insurance funds to equity assets aims to enhance support for the capital market and the real economy [5]. - A number of A-share companies have also announced stock repurchases, reflecting their confidence in future growth prospects [5]. - The resilience and potential of the Chinese economy are highlighted, with a focus on companies that are becoming globally competitive as key stabilizing forces in the market [5].

牧原股份 20250413 牧原股份在养殖行业中的竞争优势是什么？ 牧原股份在养殖行业中的竞争优势主要体现在以下几个方面： • 牧原股份 2025 年预计出栏量接近 9,000 万头，远超同行神农集团的 300 多 万头，显示其卓越的规模化运营能力。 • 尽管基数庞大，牧原股份 2025 年一季度出栏增速仍超预期，表明其在成本 控制前提下保持了强劲的增长势头。 • 2025 年一季度，牧原股份在猪价同比小幅下降的情况下依然实现盈利，规 模经济中值约为 45 亿元，利润基础稳固。 • 牧原股份预计全年平均养殖成本将降至每公斤 12 元，年底或达 11 元左右。 在周期平均猪价 15 元/公斤时，有望实现年度利润超 300 亿元。 • 牧原股份全年出栏量预计接近 9,000 万头，包含大量仔猪销售，育肥产能 约为 8,000 万头，通过分工化经营提高整体出栏水平和盈利能力。 • 牧原股份通过精细化管理持续降低养殖成本，已处于行业领先水平，并具 备进一步下降的潜力。 • 牧原股份已从高成长阶段过渡到高质量发展阶段，资本开支和负债率均呈 下降趋势，内部管理不断优化，长期配置价值凸显。 i. 成本优化：公司最新的还原成 ...

Group 1 - The agricultural sector is experiencing strong performance, with multiple stocks such as XinSai Co., WanXiang DeNong, BeiDaHuang, and QiuLe Seed Industry hitting the daily limit, while others like JinDan Technology and KangNong Seed Industry have risen over 10% [1][2] - Specific stock performance includes QiuLe Seed Industry up by 29.98% to 28.57, KangNong Seed Industry up by 23.67% to 54.66, and JinDan Technology up by 16.50% to 17.70 [2] Group 2 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council have issued a plan for building a strong agricultural nation by 2035, aiming for significant progress by 2027 and modernization of rural areas [3] - The plan emphasizes the need for advanced agricultural machinery, highlighting the demand for high-performance and intelligent agricultural equipment, particularly in grain production [3] - The plan also includes upgrading agricultural machinery and promoting the integration of agricultural machinery and agronomy to enhance efficiency and productivity [3] Group 3 - Pacific Securities highlights the defensive attributes of the agricultural sector amid trade tariffs, recommending investment in the planting industry chain related to soybeans and corn, as well as livestock sectors related to pork and poultry [4] - The investment strategy focuses on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as dairy farming and poultry farming, which are experiencing capacity reduction and price reversal expectations [4] - The pet food sector is also identified as a value investment opportunity due to its sustained high demand and overseas production capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector in light of the recent tariff increases on U.S. imports [1][5][4]. Core Views - The imposition of a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports is expected to benefit the domestic agricultural sector, particularly in the areas of feed, livestock, and seed industries [1][2][3]. - The report highlights that the increase in tariffs will likely lead to price hikes in key agricultural products such as soybean meal, corn, and beef, thereby enhancing the profitability of domestic producers [2][24][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 10, 2025, which is expected to raise the import costs of key agricultural products [1][15][16]. - Major U.S. agricultural imports to China include sorghum, soybeans, cotton, beef, and corn, with soybeans and corn being particularly affected by the tariff [1][24]. Feed and Livestock Sector - The report is optimistic about companies like Haida Group and leading pig and poultry farming enterprises, which are expected to see enhanced profit margins due to better raw material management amid rising feed prices [2][3]. - The report suggests that the cost of feed, which constitutes a significant portion of livestock production costs, will rise, potentially accelerating the cycle of livestock production and benefiting leading companies in the sector [2][3]. Seed and Crop Sector - The seed industry is anticipated to benefit from a favorable price cycle and advancements in genetically modified crops, with corn prices expected to rise due to increased import costs from the U.S. tariffs [2][3]. - Companies with land resources in the planting sector are also expected to gain from rising grain prices [2][3]. Beef Industry Outlook - The domestic beef industry is projected to experience a turnaround as domestic supply decreases and U.S. beef imports shrink due to the new tariffs [3][24]. - The report indicates that the valuation of related beef companies is currently at a low point, suggesting potential for growth as market sentiment improves [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in the following sectors: 1. Pig farming: Mu Yuan, Hua Tong, Wen's, Shen Nong Group, Xin Wu Feng, Ju Xing Agricultural, Tang Ren Shen, Tian Kang Biological 2. Poultry farming: Li Hua, Yi Sheng, Sheng Nong Development 3. Feed: Haida Group 4. Seed: Quan Yin Gao Ke, Long Ping Gao Ke, Feng Le Seed Industry, Deng Hai Seed Industry, Da Bei Nong [3][4].

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

一、 指数表现 三大股指集体收跌 ， 上证指数下跌 0. 24 %，深证成指跌 1.4 %，创业板指跌1.8 6 % 。 早盘市场情绪低迷，三大指数低开后一度反弹，午后 维持震荡 。全市场超 3 0 00只个股下 跌， 2000 只上涨。成交额 小幅 放量 ， 全天成交 1.13万亿，较昨日增加1631亿元。 二、板块及热点分析 2）机遇：由于特朗普对全球加高额关税，可能将欧盟、东盟推向我们，加大合作。 领涨板块 ： 大消费板块逆势走强 ， 美国将对所有贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对多个贸易 伙伴征收更高税率，据彭博报道，对华累计关税预计升至54%，且对我国企业重要的出海区 域，如东南亚，关税力度同样很大，但对加墨未进一步提升关税力度。关税超预期环境下，提 振内需对国内经济愈发重要，基建和国家重点产业战略（如煤化工等）投资建设有望获得政策 加码支持，而出海和制造业投资短期则面临一定的预期压制。 旅游、零售、白酒、养殖等细分 领域领涨，国芳集团、梦百合等多股涨停。贵州茅台年报业绩稳健（ 2024 年 营 收 增 长 15.66%），提振消费板块信心。 电力与地产股异动： 电力板块受电价改革政策推动 ...

Mergers and Acquisitions - Anyuan Coal Industry's controlling shareholder plans to swap 57% of Jiang Jinhui's magnetic separation shares with the company's coal business, which is expected to constitute a significant asset restructuring [1] - *ST Zhongji intends to acquire 100% equity of New Energy Chemical [1] Equity Transfer, Buyback, and Increase - Kingsoft Office's shareholder is inquiring about the transfer of 7.7618 million shares [2] - Shenhuo Co. plans to repurchase shares for between 250 million to 450 million yuan [2] - Glodon Company intends to repurchase shares for between 105 million to 210 million yuan [2] - Lite Optoelectronics plans to repurchase shares for between 50 million to 100 million yuan [2] - Hengtong Group, the controlling shareholder of Hengtong Co., plans to increase its stake by 150 million to 300 million yuan [2] External Investment and Daily Operations - Jinlongyu plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in the construction of a solid-state battery material project [3] - Guangxin Materials' fundraising project "11,300t/a self-made resin and 7,000t/a inner layer ink" has begun trial production [3] - WuXi AppTec sold 50.8 million shares of WuXi AppTec Holdings, with an investment return of approximately 1.847 billion yuan [3] - Shanghai Environment intends to acquire 50% equity of Shanghai Chengbo Lian Industrial Co., Ltd. for 582 million yuan [3] - Taicheng Light signed a global patent licensing agreement with US Conec Ltd., allowing for mass production and sales of MDC fiber optic connectors [3] Performance Changes - New Hope expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 122.23% to 125.85% in the first quarter of 2025, with a reduction in losses from pig farming and an increase in both volume and profit in the feed business [4] - Haili Heavy Industry anticipates a year-on-year net profit growth of 50.00% to 65.00% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by improved order quality and a higher proportion of high-margin product orders, resulting in increased sales gross margin [4]