FICC日报 | 2026-01-23 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 FICC日报 | 2026-01-23 地缘风险降温，关注欧美1月制造业PMI初值 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；特朗普21日在达沃斯演讲称格陵 兰岛是美国核心安全利益，但美不会武力夺取，寻求立即谈判。此后特朗普称与北约达成格陵兰协议"框架"，2月 1日不会针对欧洲多个国家实施与格陵兰相关的关税。欧洲议会宣布无限期冻结欧美贸易协定审议工作。2、美联 储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独立性，特朗普也 表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。美最高法对罢免美联储理事库克态度谨慎，认为解雇可能破坏美联储 的独立性并引发市场动荡。特朗普称可能已选定一人任美联储主席、希望像格林斯潘，再次暗示哈塞特"出局"。 从事件的角度，需要关注保证金和流动性市场带来的变量。根据芝商所1月12日发布的通知，将改变黄金、白 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoint The new grain sales have slowed down, and the remaining grain after the Spring Festival is still expected to be insufficient. Although there is a tight supply expectation of high - quality grain in some areas, the public bidding transactions and a significant increase in imports, along with the support of downstream procurement demand, suggest that corn prices in the first half of the year may be relatively optimistic, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded again, while the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The basis of corn oscillated weakly, and the discount of the futures price narrowed. The starch main 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded, with a stable starch price and a weakly oscillating basis [3] 3.2 New Grain Sales Progress - As of January 22, the national grain sales progress was 56%, 1% slower year - on - year. There was obvious regional differentiation: the Northeast was 56%, 2% faster year - on - year; North China was 51%, 3% slower year - on - year; and the Northwest was 69%, 3% slower year - on - year. It is expected that the national grain sales progress before the Spring Festival will exceed 60%, and there will be insufficient remaining grain after the Spring Festival. As of January 22, CGSCC had put 750,000 tons into public bidding and 611,000 tons were transacted [3] 3.3 Inventory Status - As of January 16, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.497 million tons, rebounding month - on - month and at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 389,000 tons, dropping significantly. In Guangdong Port, the domestic trade corn inventory was 478,000 tons, dropping month - on - month, and the foreign trade corn inventory was 219,000 tons, also dropping month - on - month. As of January 23, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, rising continuously month - on - month and still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.32 days, rising month - on - month [4] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat may have a reduced yield. The wheat - corn price difference remains high, and wheat substitution for corn is not feasible. In December 2025, China's corn imports increased significantly again, up 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The cumulative corn imports in 2025 were 2.647 million tons, down 80.8% year - on - year. Corn imports have increased significantly since last October and may continue to rise [4] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The U.S. corn in the external market oscillated at a low level. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the U.S. corn production to a record high due to increased yield per unit and harvested area, which led to a nearly 10% increase in the ending inventory, up 44% year - on - year. The South American corn production was not adjusted. The global corn ending inventory increased by 4.2% but was still 1.29% lower than last year [4] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was 7.39 yuan per head. The reduction of pig production capacity achieved certain results. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, and the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, showing the first month - on - month decline in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the breeding loss narrowed. The demand for feed may remain strong. Deep - processing enterprise demand was insufficient. The processing profit of starch processing enterprises was in the red in some areas, and the operating rate stopped falling. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46% as of January 23, rising month - on - month, and the starch inventory was 1.069 million tons, continuing to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to make losses, and the operating rate dropped to 57.33%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises was rising, and that of paper - making enterprises was relatively stable [5]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/23 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出售192,350吨大豆 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售192,350吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 截至1月15日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增150-320万吨 分析师的预估显示，截至1月15日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增150-320万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增150-300万 吨，2026-27年度料净增0-20万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增20-50万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增20-50万吨，2026-27年度料净增0吨。美国豆油出口 销售料净增0.5-2.5万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增0.5-2.5万吨，2026-27年度料净增0吨。 Hedgepoint上调巴西大豆产量预估至1.795亿吨 Hedgepoint称，巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预计为1.795亿吨，高于此前的1.78亿吨。截至1月16日，巴西大豆收割 率为3%，高于前一周的1%。 Abiove预计2026年巴西大豆压榨量为6,100万吨 Abiove预计，巴西2025/26年度大豆产量将达到 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on ensuring the quality of agricultural products during the "first mile" of market entry [2] - A press conference held on January 22 highlighted the acceleration of agricultural modernization and the promotion of rural revitalization [5][10] - The Ministry has initiated a second round of land contract extensions for 30 years, covering 7 provinces, 221 counties, and 349 townships, benefiting over 25 million farmers [6][7] Group 2 - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress is set to focus on agricultural modernization in 2026, which is a key year for advancing rural revitalization [14][15] - The "万人人鹅宴" event in Shantou attracted significant attention, reaching over 100 million people through various media [39] - The training program for 421 grassroots agricultural technicians in Zhanjiang emphasizes grain and oil stability and smart agriculture [41][45] Group 3 - China's tea exports are projected to reach 418,800 tons in 2025, marking a historical high with an export value of approximately $1.546 billion, reflecting strong global competitiveness [32][34]

进入腊月，年味渐浓，"办年货"作为迎接春节的传统序幕，已悄然融入人们的日程。1月22日，在北京 农业展览馆，北京年货大集正式拉开帷幕。本网记者在现场看到，来自东北的优质大米、广东的特色盆 菜、云南的鲜美菌菇……来自天南地北的特色风味汇聚一堂，共同组成了一桌丰盛的"舌尖上的中国"。 近期，农业农村部已对节日期间"菜篮子"产品稳产保供工作作出部署，要求各地进一步压紧压实"菜篮 子"市长负责制，切实抓好产品稳定供应与质量安全，确保今冬明春特别是春节期间"菜篮子"产品市场 供应充足、价格总体平稳。 来源：人民网 190 010 EN 11 77 NVIV 6 Portant II n 3 s 21 r * 7 D) 1 t . STE Min. r 61 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and consumption shows a "K-shaped" characteristic [14]. - In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, with service retail sales growing faster. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - In the short term, risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals, gold, and silver [14]. Summary by Directory Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 22, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4719.4, down 0.26; the SSE 50 futures price was 3061.2, down 0.61; the CSI 500 futures price was 8400, up 0.25; the CSI 1000 futures price was 8292.6, up 0.56 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.408, down 0.02; the 5 - year was 105.835, down 0.04; the 10 - year was 108.15, down 0.04; the 30 - year was 112.17, down 0.03 [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 98.7693, up 0.23; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9646, down 57 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4952%, up 0.04%; the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.8312%, down 0.14 bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, down 4 bp [3]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily increases, while industries such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had declines [6]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 21, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $59.52, up 0.3%; ICE Brent crude was at $64.62, up 0.67%; NYMEX natural gas was at $3.891, up 25.39%; ICE UK natural gas was at $105.29, up 12.07% [9]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at $4769.1, up 3.78%; COMEX silver was at $94.46, up 6.69% [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was at $12810, up 0.44%; LME aluminum was at $3115, up 0.24%; LME zinc was at $3175, up 0.06% [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at $1053, down 0.45%; CBOT soybean oil was at $54.05, up 2.83%; CBOT corn was at $424, down 0.18% [9]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodities rose. Chemicals, new energy materials, non - metal building materials, energy products, etc. all had increases, while precious metals had declines [14]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, and consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic. Attention should be paid to upcoming GDP and inflation data [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and in 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - **Asset Views**: The scenario of no interest rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may adjust, while in the medium - term, it is recommended to go long on certain assets [14]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock markets continue to wait for the main line, and bond markets still have disturbing factors. The short - term judgments for stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are oscillatory rise, oscillation, and oscillation respectively [15]. - **Precious Metals**: After oscillatory adjustment, they maintain an upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to rise oscillatory [15]. - **Shipping**: Pay attention to the resumption of voyages in the far - month. The short - term judgment for the container shipping European line is oscillation [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Fundamentals are lackluster. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - situation to become clearer. Base metals are oscillating and consolidating. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade tension eases slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Agriculture**: Sentiment warms up but trends diverge. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate or decline oscillatory [17].

【环球时报报道 记者 丁雅栀 张蔚蓝】21日，加拿大联邦法院推翻政府要求关闭TikTok加拿大业务的命 令，允许这款短视频应用暂时继续运营，并要求加拿大工业部长梅拉妮·乔利重新审查这款应用。此 前，加拿大工业部以国家安全风险为借口，下令TikTok终止在加业务。外媒称，这一变化发生在加拿大 总理访问中国之后，通过这次行程，加中双方缓和了关系。 据美国"政治新闻网"、路透社等媒体21日报道，加拿大联邦法院法官拉塞尔·津恩当天作出简短判决， 撤销了上届政府做出的命令，立即生效，同时要求乔利予以重新审查。拉塞尔·津恩对此没有提供理 由。加拿大创新、科学与经济发展部发言人汉斯·帕尔马尔在一份声明中表示，依据《加拿大投资法》 的保密条款，他们无法就此次审查进一步置评。 彭博社报道称，就在上周，卡尼成为8年来首次访问中国的加拿大领导人，并宣布与中方领导人在贸易 问题上达成共识，双方关系得以缓和。印度《第一邮报》称，加拿大和中国近日宣布达成一项"战略协 议"，尽管细节仍仅限于联合声明中的内容，但其象征意义不容忽视。 《第一邮报》称，协议的核心是允许每年以6.1%的最惠国税率进口至多4.9万辆中国电动汽车。"鉴于加 拿大与美 ...

Core Insights - Algeria's non-hydrocarbon exports are experiencing accelerated growth, reflecting the effectiveness of the new economic policy aimed at diversification [2] Group 1: Economic Policy and Export Growth - The country has restructured its foreign trade management system and optimized export rules and processes, which has significantly boosted non-hydrocarbon export growth [2] - Various facilitation measures in administration, taxation, and customs have been introduced to support this growth [2] Group 2: Export Performance and Future Goals - Non-hydrocarbon export value increased from $2.2 billion in 2020 to $5.1 billion in 2023, with projections of reaching $7 billion in 2024 [2] - The Algerian Cement Group announced an export target of 5 million tons by 2025, increasing to 6 million tons by 2026 [2] - Key industries such as steel, agricultural products, home appliances, mining, and pharmaceuticals have shown outstanding performance [2] Group 3: Collaboration and Market Expansion - Enhanced communication and collaboration between the government and enterprises have been crucial in eliminating barriers and expanding market opportunities [2] - This collaboration marks a new phase of high-quality development for Algeria's non-hydrocarbon exports [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for high-growth sectors, suggesting that they possess investment value in the medium to long term [3][9]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a pullback, influenced by policy guidance, leading to a rational market return. Short-term themes have adjusted, but the market is expected to benefit from a slow bull trend after consolidation [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting industries with upward momentum, particularly as selling pressure diminishes [3][9]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Factor Tracking - The market style remains biased towards small-cap stocks, with a continued preference for growth over value styles. Both small-cap and growth style volatilities have reached near one-year highs, indicating increased fluctuations in returns between styles [10][11]. - The report notes a rebound in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation continues to decline. The proportion of rising stocks in the 300 and 500 indices has significantly decreased [10][11]. - Market activity shows a decline in volatility for most indices, except for the 1000 index, while turnover rates are on the rise [10][11]. Commodity Market Factor Tracking - The energy and precious metals sectors have seen an increase in trend strength, while other sectors have experienced a decline. The basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, contrasting with declines in other sectors [23][28]. - Volatility remains high for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while black and energy sectors have seen slight decreases in volatility. Liquidity has decreased in precious metals and energy sectors, with other sectors experiencing increases [23][28]. Options Market Factor Tracking - Implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 indices has begun to decline from recent highs. The skew in volatility indicates a decrease in bullish sentiment and an increase in bearish sentiment, suggesting that market participants perceive a lower risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term [31][32]. Convertible Bond Market Factor Tracking - The convertible bond market has experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan has stabilized, showing a slight adjustment, while the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds has increased. However, market transaction volumes remain high [33][34].

- The report tracks quantitative factors in the equity market, highlighting that the market style remains tilted towards small-cap and growth-oriented stocks, with increased volatility in style performance and widened return differences between styles[10][11] - In terms of market structure, the dispersion of excess returns across industries has risen, while industry rotation speed has decreased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks in indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 has declined. Additionally, the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks remained stable, while the top 5 industries saw a slight increase in trading concentration[10][11] - Market activity indicators show a decline in market volatility across most indices except CSI 1000, while turnover rates have continued to rise[10][11] - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals and energy chemicals has increased, while other sectors have seen a decline. Basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, whereas other sectors have declined. Volatility remains high for precious metals and base metals, with slight decreases in energy chemicals and black metals. Liquidity has decreased for precious metals and energy chemicals but increased for other sectors[23][28] - In the options market, implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 has decreased from previous highs. The skewness of call options has declined, while that of put options has increased. Despite this, the skewness of CSI 1000 put options remains negative, indicating that market participants perceive a low risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term[31][32] - In the convertible bond market, the market experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at par value has stabilized with slight adjustments, while the pure bond premium rate for debt-oriented groups has continued to rise. The proportion of low-conversion-premium bonds has also increased. However, trading volume in the market remains high and has not weakened[33][39]