1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the commodity market next week. If the war intensifies, energy and chemical products are expected to perform strongly, while commodities sensitive to interest rates and worried about weakening demand may perform weakly. The expected order of performance is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [2][18][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: Divergent Commodity Trends, Leading by Energy and Chemicals - This week (03.02 - 03.01), commodity trends were divergent. The performance order of sectors was energy > oil chemical > coal chemical > black > agricultural products > non - ferrous > precious metals. Due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, supply - side disturbances persisted. On Monday, commodities generally rose, with energy, chemicals, and precious metals seeing large increases. From Tuesday, as the market revised up the expected duration of the war and inflation rose, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations were revised down, causing precious metals and non - ferrous metals to fall, while energy and chemical products continued to rise [1][12] 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: Geopolitical Dominance, Continued Strength in Energy and Chemicals - Geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the commodity market. The market has revised up the war duration, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with a low probability of short - term supply recovery. Geopolitical risks are increasing global stagflation pressure, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being revised down. Domestic policies announced during the Two Sessions are in line with market expectations. If the war intensifies, energy and chemical products will remain strong, while some commodities sensitive to interest rates may be weak. The expected performance order is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [2][18][19] 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of March 6, the US dollar index rose 1.34% to 98.9558, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 18BP to 4.15%. The Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spread was inverted by 237.3BP. The US - Iran war exceeded market expectations, leading to increased risk - aversion, rising oil and chemical prices, and a significant downward revision of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The slowdown in the US February non - farm employment data may intensify concerns about stagflation. The RMB's appreciation pace slowed [22] 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - Due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz transportation was severely affected, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices. The resonance of energy substitution, cost transmission, rising transportation costs, and increased market risk - aversion also led to an increase in coking coal prices [27] 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased, while the daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased. The production of copper tubes and electrolytic aluminum in China increased. The EIA US crude oil production data was presented. The methanol capacity utilization rate decreased, the PE capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, the PTA plant operating rate increased, the PVC operating rate decreased, the operating rate of Chinese soda ash enterprises slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises was low, the operating rates of automobile tire all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, and the production of soybean meal from Chinese full - sample enterprises' pressing plants increased [33][36][52] 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - Gold and silver inventories decreased slightly. Most industrial product inventories continued to accumulate above the seasonal level. Inventories of copper, iron ore, methanol, PVC, soda ash, glass, etc. were at historical highs, and inventories of aluminum and steel were also increasing significantly. The key to inventory reduction is whether demand can improve significantly [53] 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - This year's growth - stabilization goals are pragmatic, with more attention on development quality, economic structure adjustment, and long - term development potential. The real - estate market data was divergent this week: the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased slightly, the sales area in first - tier cities increased but at a slower pace, and second - hand housing listing prices declined. However, the second - hand housing listing volume was low, and the second - hand housing transaction area continued to rise. This week, the issuance and net financing scale of government bonds decreased, and the cumulative net financing of government bonds this year was at a historical high. The subway passenger volume in the top ten cities and the apparent consumption of rebar increased seasonally [74][75][76] 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - Data on the basis of various key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal were presented [86][89][92] 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - Data on various commodity price ratios such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio were presented [96][99][103] 3.9 Summary and Outlook - The expected performance order is energy, chemicals > agricultural products > black commodities > non - ferrous metals and precious metals [3][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bullish**: For soybean meal, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. Argentina's insufficient rainfall in the next fifteen days and the bullish forecast in the USDA March report led to a rise in soybean meal prices. International crude oil strength and the expectation of inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in February drove up palm oil prices. Geopolitical tensions and the expectation of U.S. biodiesel supported the rise of soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices [1]. - **Short - term rebound**: For rapeseed meal. The new - year rapeseed planting intention data released by Statistics Canada showed that the area increase was less than expected, which was bullish for rapeseed and rapeseed meal prices, and the low inventory supported the near - month rapeseed meal price [1][6]. - **Phase consolidation**: For cotton. The strong risk - aversion sentiment triggered by the U.S. - Israel military action in the outer market led to a decline in U.S. cotton. The domestic market also回调ed, and the previous bullish sentiment cooled. The downstream spinning mills faced profit compression and high internal - external price differences [1][12]. - **Under pressure**: For red dates. The market trading sentiment improved slightly due to small - scale restocking and macro - sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern in the off - season was loose, and inventory removal basically stagnated [1][14]. - **Oscillating weakly**: For live pigs. The slow reduction of breeding sows led to a high supply base of live pigs. After the Spring Festival, the market entered the traditional off - season, and the slaughter end was expected to put pressure on prices. The medium - and long - term contracts lacked upward momentum, but there might be opportunities for phased long - allocation if the far - month contracts回调ed significantly [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract daily closing) rose to 2915 yuan/ton from 2843 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.53%. The national average spot price rose to 3174.57 yuan/ton from 3130 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.42% [2]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Argentina's insufficient rainfall and the bullish USDA March report were the main factors driving the short - term bullish trend of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to Argentina's rainfall situation and the USDA March data [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) rose to 2374 yuan/ton from 2318 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.42%. The national average spot price rose to 2632.63 yuan/ton from 2566.32 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.58% [5]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The new - year rapeseed planting intention data released by Statistics Canada showed that the area increase was less than expected, which was bullish for rapeseed and rapeseed meal prices. The low inventory supported the near - month rapeseed meal price [1][6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract daily closing) rose to 9218 yuan/ton from 9070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.63%. The national average price rose to 9178 yuan/ton from 8978 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.23% [7]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: International crude oil strength and the expectation of inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in February drove up palm oil prices. However, the large - scale import arrival in China in February and the high short - term inventory might limit the short - term continuous rebound space [1][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of the main cotton contract (CF2605) rose to 15295 yuan/ton from 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) rose to 16678 yuan/ton from 16583 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57% [10]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: In the international market, the inspection of new cotton in the U.S. was basically completed, and the CCC inventory decreased significantly. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton decreased. In Brazil, the new - year cotton planting was basically completed, and the production was expected to decrease. In the domestic market, the subsidy policy might affect the new - year production capacity. The import pressure in January - February was expected to exceed 150,000 tons, which might limit inventory removal. The downstream spinning mills faced profit compression [11][12]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of the main red date contract (CJ2605) rose to 9025 yuan/ton from 8980 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The spot prices of various regions were basically stable [13]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The market trading sentiment improved slightly due to small - scale restocking and macro - sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern in the off - season was loose, and inventory removal basically stagnated. Attention should be paid to the inventory removal situation from March to April and the subsequent holiday consumption [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of the main live pig contract (lh2605) rose to 11160 yuan/ton from 11140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The national average slaughter price decreased to 10290 yuan/ton from 10360 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.68% [15]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The slow reduction of breeding sows led to a high supply base of live pigs. After the Spring Festival, the market entered the traditional off - season, and the slaughter end was expected to put pressure on prices. The medium - and long - term contracts lacked upward momentum, but there might be opportunities for phased long - allocation if the far - month contracts回调ed significantly [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has become the core disturbing factor in the global financial market, and the market has quickly formed five types of asset trading logics: risk - aversion, event - driven, repair, new main - line, and hedging. In 2026, China's economy will maintain a stable and progressive rhythm in a complex situation, with five major trends advancing in synergy, significantly enhancing the allocation value of Chinese assets. Gold also shows long - term allocation significance in the volatile pattern [2]. - The short - term trend of RMB exchange rate is affected by the resilience of the US dollar index, and it is difficult to restart the trend of appreciation. The key observation point is the change in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.82 mark [3][4]. - The short - term trend of stock index is expected to be dominated by shock repair. The impact of overseas factors is weakening, and policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support. If there are more favorable policies, the stock index may turn stronger [6]. - For treasury bonds, the T2606 contract can hold a small number of medium - term long positions, and short - term trading should be on hold. The market is affected by the situation of the US - Iran war and A - share trends. If the stock market adjusts significantly, the safe - haven sentiment may drive the bond market up [7]. - The short - term price of container shipping on the European line will maintain high volatility, and the market is dominated by geopolitical news. Trend traders are advised to wait and see or participate with a light - position short - term strategy. Arbitrageurs can consider the 08 - 10 spread for positive arbitrage [11]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon industries are at the bottom of the cycle, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The Middle East conflict may increase the demand for distributed energy, and photovoltaic is an important part of the energy structure transformation [14]. - The short - term trend of aluminum is volatile and bullish, alumina is in shock consolidation, and cast aluminum alloy is volatile and bullish. The price of aluminum is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The price of copper is in a shock - adjustment pattern, and the key window for verifying the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March. Zinc is weak in the short term and bullish in the medium term. Nickel - stainless steel is in a short - term shock, and tin is in a narrow - range shock. Lead is in shock adjustment [16][18][22][23][25]. - For oilseeds, the price is driven by funds and geopolitics. The price of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will follow the trend of US soybeans in the short term. The strategy is to conduct positive arbitrage between spreads or widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For oils, the short - term price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the focus is on the US - Iran conflict and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [27][32]. - The price of crude oil is mainly affected by the Middle East situation. The key factors to watch are the degree of "physical blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran situation. The price of fuel oil is supported by China's export suspension and Indonesia's festival demand. The price of asphalt is completely driven by the cost of crude oil, and the short - term core factor is the geopolitical disturbance [37][39][40]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments may occur due to the delay of interest - rate cut expectations. For gold and silver, the strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to the support levels. Be vigilant against short - term technical corrections and panic selling [45][49]. - For pulp, the market is slightly bullish, and short - term interval trading can be carried out, while medium - term low - buying strategies can be considered. For offset paper, short - term high - selling strategies can be considered. For pure benzene and styrene, they are expected to be strong before the problem of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is solved. For LPG, the price is affected by the Middle East war and the supply situation. For methanol, it may catch up with the increase of olefins next week. For plastics and PP, they are expected to be strong before the situation in the Middle East eases. For rubber, natural rubber is expected to be in shock, and synthetic rubber is relatively easy to rise and difficult to fall. For urea, the war risk may drive up the price. For glass and soda ash, the price is affected by the fundamentals and market sentiment [51][53][55][57][58][61][67][69]. - For steel products, the short - term price is supported by the cost of raw materials, but the rebound height is limited. The price of iron ore has support in the near - term but limited upside space. The price of coking coal and coke has a bottom support but limited price elasticity. The price of ferroalloys has cost support but limited upside due to weak downstream demand [72][74][77][79]. - For live pigs, the price is at the bottom, and a sell - call option strategy can be adopted. For cotton, the price is in a narrow - range shock adjustment. For sugar, the price is in a low - level rebound, but there is no clear trend - reversal basis. For apples, the futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. For jujubes, the price is in a low - level shock. For logs, an interval trading strategy can be adopted, and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [82][84][87][94][96][97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate. Iran's oil storage facilities are attacked, and there are differences between the US and Israel on the scope of strikes. The US cancels the navigation warning for commercial ships. The US discusses seizing Iran's strategic oil export terminal. In Iran, Hamedani's son is elected the new supreme leader, and Trump considers military options against Iran. The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [1]. - **Core Logic**: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to a resurgence of global stagflation concerns. The unexpected negative non - farm payrolls data in the US has raised concerns about the economy, but the economic fundamentals may not be as pessimistic as the data shows. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US dollar index and corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness [1][3]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index rose collectively last trading day, with small - and medium - cap stock indexes performing relatively strongly. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to about 2.2 trillion yuan. In the index futures market, IH increased in volume, while other varieties increased in price with shrinking volume [5]. - **Important Information**: Hamedani's son is elected the new supreme leader of Iran. The non - farm payrolls in the US in February decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The output value of six emerging pillar industries is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [5][6]. - **Market Analysis**: The stock index rebounded last Friday, mainly a repair after the impact of geopolitical factors. The overseas situation still has uncertainties, but the impact on the A - share market is weakening. Policy support during the Two Sessions may drive the stock index to turn stronger [6]. 3.3 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rose last week due to safe - haven sentiment and then maintained a narrow - range shock. The funds were loose, but tightened marginally on Friday. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were basically the same as the previous week [6]. - **Important Information**: The non - farm payrolls in the US in February decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Trump said there will be no agreement with Iran unless it surrenders unconditionally [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The information from the Two Sessions has a neutral impact on the bond market. The GDP target is in the range of 4.5% - 5.0%, and the fiscal deficit rate remains at 4%. The policy support for the bond market is limited. If the stock market adjusts significantly, the safe - haven sentiment may drive the bond market up [7]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Line - **Market Review**: The near - month contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures market opened high and went high on March 6. The main contract EC2504 rose 7% compared with the previous trading day. The far - month contracts were relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term [9]. - **Information Sorting**: The US - Iran conflict has both positive and negative impacts on the European line. Positive factors include the increase in war risk insurance premiums and fuel costs, the price increase by shipping companies, and the delay of the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. Negative factors include the uncertainty of the conflict, the weak demand in the spot market, and the risk of over - supply due to the re - allocation of idle capacity [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price of container shipping on the European line will maintain high volatility, and the market is dominated by geopolitical news. Trend traders are advised to wait and see or participate with a light - position short - term strategy. Arbitrageurs can consider the 08 - 10 spread for positive arbitrage [11]. 3.5 Commodities 3.5.1 New Energy (Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon) - **Market Review**: The weighted contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,697 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 3.51%. The trading volume decreased by 10.08% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 62,600 lots. The weighted index contract of polysilicon closed at 41,576 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 11.09%. The trading volume decreased by 7.36% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 7,167 lots [13]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of industrial silicon and the photovoltaic industry chain was generally weak last week, mainly in the process of inventory reduction. The production of industrial silicon increased week - on - week, while the production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.7 million tons, and the inventory of polysilicon increased by 1.01% [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle East conflict may increase the demand for distributed energy, and photovoltaic is an important part of the energy structure transformation. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement in the supply - demand pattern [14]. 3.5.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The main contract of LME aluminum closed at 3,431 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.21%. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also increased [16]. - **Core View**: The price of aluminum is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The conflict affects the supply and cost of aluminum in the Middle East, and the market expectation of conflict mitigation will lead to a decline in the premium. The price of alumina is affected by the price of aluminum, and the price of cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to the price of aluminum [16][18]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend of aluminum is volatile and bullish, alumina is in shock consolidation, and cast aluminum alloy is volatile and bullish [18]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The price of copper decreased last week, with the Shanghai copper weighted index trading volume decreasing by 17.8% week - on - week and the open interest increasing by 0.24%. The price of LME copper and COMEX copper also decreased [18][19]. - **Industry Information**: The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increased. The National Development and Reform Commission announced policies to boost consumption and investment. The US dollar strengthened due to the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices [20][21]. - **Market Analysis**: The core logic of copper price has switched to a shock - adjustment pattern of "high inventory suppression + macro uncertainty + strong US dollar". The key window for verifying the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy [21]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The weighted contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24,295 yuan/ton. The spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,150 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 1 zinc ingot was 24,080 yuan/ton [22]. - **Core Logic**: The price of zinc was weak during the day and fluctuated narrowly at night. The unexpected non - farm payrolls data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, providing support for the weak market. The supply of zinc concentrate may be affected by the situation in Iran, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory pressure is relatively large [22]. - **Market Analysis**: Zinc is weak in the short term and bullish in the medium term [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 137,550 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.59%. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 14,170 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.04% [23]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot price of nickel and stainless steel changed slightly. The inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased. The profit of nickel - iron and stainless steel production was relatively stable [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend of nickel - stainless steel is in shock, and the market is affected by the situation in Indonesia and the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The demand in the peak season provides some support [24]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The weighted contract of Shanghai tin closed at 393,600 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 396,950 yuan/ton [25]. - **Core Logic**: The price of tin fluctuated narrowly, and the night - session continued the trend. The situation in Iran and the unexpected non - farm payrolls data provided support for the metal. The supply of tin is relatively tight, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - **Market Analysis**: Pay attention to the support of the MA60 line [25]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The weighted contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,781 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 lead ingot was 16,600 yuan/ton [25]. - **Core Logic**: The price of lead fluctuated narrowly, mainly due to the price pressure and inventory accumulation expectation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price is expected to maintain a shock - adjustment pattern [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of lead is expected to be in shock, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [25]. 3.5.3 Oils and Feeds - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The oil sector strengthened, driven by the increase in crude oil prices and the expectation of biodiesel demand. The Chicago soybean oil futures reached a record high, driving up the domestic oil prices [32]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - **Soybean Oil**: The cost is driven up by the increase in CBOT soybean futures, and the supply pressure is relieved due to the low arrival volume of soybeans in the first quarter. However, the global soybean supply is still abundant, which restricts the upward space of soybean oil prices [32]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in the traditional production - reduction season, and the production in Malaysia is decreasing, which supports the price. However, the export is weak, which restricts the upward momentum [33]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The raw material supply is abundant, and the global rapeseed production is increasing. The market is optimistic about the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports, and the supply is expected to be loose [33]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term focus is on the US - Iran conflict and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The strength of the three oils is different [33]. - **Feeds** - **Market Review**: The price of US soybeans continued to rise, and the domestic market followed suit. The spot price of soybeans increased over the weekend [27][30]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - **Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume in March is about 5 million tons, and in April is about 9 million tons. The supply pressure is expected to decrease due to geopolitical disturbances and the delay of domestic reserve sales [27][30]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The spot market is relatively calm, and the basis continues to shrink. The inventory of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement is not active

农产品早报 2026-03-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 白糖 【行情资讯】 五矿期货早报 | 农产品 个百分点。其中 1 月预测美国产量 303 万吨，环比 12 月预测减少 7.6 万吨，出口预估维持不变，库存消 费比 30.43%，环比减少 2.17 个百分点。巴西产量预估持平为 408 万吨；印度产量下调 11 万吨至 512 万 吨；中国产量上调 22 万吨至 751 万吨。（5）据海关总署数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口棉花 18 万 吨，同比增加 4 万吨。2025 年我国累计进口棉花 108 万吨，同比减少 156 万吨。 【策略观点】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 （1）据印度全国合作糖厂联合会（NFCSF）发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2 月 28 日，印度累计产糖 2463 万吨，同比增加 262 万吨。（2）3 月原糖合约到 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report presents the daily warehouse receipt collection of agricultural products, including the warehouse receipt quantities of various agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs, along with their historical data and comparison of week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [1][3][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities and Changes** - **Soybean Meal**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 38,829.0 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 7%, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 156% [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 1,411.0 pieces, with a week - on - week change of inf%, a month - on - month decrease of 85%, and a year - on - year change of 26,255.0 (not clear if this is a base value or a difference) [7] - **Soybean Oil**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 26,255.0 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 200% [7] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 625.0 pieces, with a week - on - week change of 0%, a month - on - month change of 0.0%, and a year - on - year decrease of 77% [7] - **Palm Oil**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 750.0 hands, with a week - on - week change of inf%, a month - on - month increase of 66.7%, and a year - on - year change of inf% [7] - **Sugar**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 14,585.0 pieces, with a week - on - week increase of 1.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40% [7] - **Live Pigs**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 1,150.0 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 1%, a month - on - month increase of 77.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] - **Cotton (No. 1)**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 11,390.0 pieces, with a week - on - week increase of 2%, a month - on - month increase of 8.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 55% [7] - **Corn**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 82,252.0 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 11%, a month - on - month increase of 53.5%, and a year - on - year decrease of 16% [7] - **Total**: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 177,247.0 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 3%, a month - on - month increase of 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 6% [7] - **Historical Warehouse Receipt Quantity Trends** - The report provides historical warehouse receipt quantity trends of various agricultural products from 2018 to 2026, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [3][4][6]

1. Report Industry and Date - Industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] 2. Researchers - Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 3. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 4. Core Views 4.1 Oils - The short - term support for the oils market comes from the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which boosts crude oil prices and strengthens the biodiesel attribute of the oils sector. The oils market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil and be viewed positively, but chasing high prices is not recommended. The strength relationship among the three major oils is expected to be palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. [8] - In the long - term, the continuous Middle - East conflict is expected to support crude oil prices in 2026, which in turn provides potential support for palm oil prices and strengthens the upward momentum of the global edible oil market. [9] 4.2 Corn - The supply of corn in the spot market may increase, but the selling pressure is reduced. The overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the futures market, the 2605/07 contracts are also expected to fluctuate strongly. [97] 4.3 Hogs - The spot price of hogs may bottom - out and rebound as the low price may stimulate the demand for secondary fattening, while the 05/07 futures contracts may fluctuate weakly. [140] 4.4 Soybean Meal - Due to the macro - events and the impact of the Middle - East conflict, CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal may continue to be slightly strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish before the Strait is unsealed. [145][146] 4.5 Eggs - In the short - term, the spot price of eggs is expected to remain in the low - level inventory digestion stage. Based on the inflation expectation caused by the Middle - East situation, the market may start to trade the expectation of reduced replenishment enthusiasm. It is advisable to pay attention to the layout opportunities of long positions in the peak season of the second half of the year. [184] 4.6 Cotton - The cotton market is expected to adjust in the short - term, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is necessary to wait for the performance of peak - season demand, the planting intention report, and the target price policy. [209] 4.7 Sugar - The raw sugar index is weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar index is facing pressure at the 5400 level. The spot price is weak, and the basis is expanding. [237][238][240] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Oils 5.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The three major oils show a differentiated trend. The strength relationship is expected to be palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. The short - term support comes from the Middle - East conflict. For arbitrage, go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil. [8] - Palm oil: The inventory in Malaysia at the end of February is expected to decline. The long - term conflict in the Middle - East may support palm oil prices. [9] - Soybean oil: The rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil provides support for the domestic market. The domestic soybean oil is in a de - stocking cycle, but the large arrival in the second quarter may ease the supply. [9] - Rapeseed oil: After the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the policy risk is alleviated. The supply is tight, and the downside support is strong. [10] 5.1.2 Core Points - Domestic spot changes: As of March 6, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil have increased week - on - week, while the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil has decreased. [11] - Domestic three - major oils inventory: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils has increased week - on - week, with different trends in each oil. [21] - Domestic oils and oilseeds supply: The soybean and rapeseed oil mill opening rates have increased week - on - week but are still at a low level. The soybean processing volume has increased, and the import situation of soybeans and rapeseeds is different. [22][32] - Palm oil dynamics: The production of palm oil in Malaysia in January 2026 decreased, and different institutions have different forecasts for February. The export data shows a certain trend. [35][36] - CFTC positions: Speculative funds have continuously increased net long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures markets. [50] 5.2 Corn 5.2.1 Market Review - The spot price of corn has been strong this week. The futures price of the Dalian main 2605 contract has increased. [54] 5.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Corn supply: The grain - selling progress has increased after the festival, but it is still slower than the same period last year. The port inventory shows different trends in the north and the south. [56][57] - Domestic substitutes: The wheat market is strong, and the price difference between corn and wheat exists. [59] - Imported substitute grains: The import volume of various grains in 2025 shows different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume of other grains may increase. [61][74] - Feed demand: The feed production in 2025 has increased. The pig inventory is expected to drive the feed demand, and the feed enterprise inventory has decreased. [75][79][80] - Deep - processing demand: The corn starch industry's opening rate and production have increased, but the processing profit is still in a loss state. The deep - processing enterprise inventory has decreased. [83][84][85] - Supply - demand balance sheet: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the production of corn in the 2025/26 season will increase, and the consumption will also increase slightly. [92] 5.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - The spot price of corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the futures price of 2605/07 contracts is also expected to be strong. The strategy for spot enterprises is to replenish inventory at low prices, and for futures investors, to hold long positions. [97] 5.3 Hogs 5.3.1 Market Review - The spot price of hogs has decreased this week, and the futures price of the main LH2605 contract has also declined. [99][100] 5.3.2 Fundamental Overview - Long - term supply: The price of binary sows is expected to fluctuate. The number of sows of child - bearing age shows different trends in different data sources, and the theoretical pig slaughter volume in the future is predicted accordingly. [104][105] - Medium - term supply: The price of piglets has decreased, and the inventory of piglets shows a certain trend, which is related to the future pig slaughter volume. [114] - Short - term supply: The large - pig inventory and the situation of pressure - barring and secondary fattening are analyzed, and the short - term pig slaughter volume is predicted. [118][119] - Current supply: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in February has decreased, and the average slaughter weight has increased slightly. [122][123] - Import supply: The pork import volume in 2025 has decreased. [130] - Secondary fattening demand: There is secondary fattening replenishment after the festival, and the cost and price difference are analyzed. [133] - Slaughter demand: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate has increased this week and is expected to adjust slightly in the future. [137] 5.3.3 Later Outlook - The spot price of hogs may bottom - out and rebound, and the 05/07 futures contracts may fluctuate weakly. The strategy for futures investors is to hold short positions and reduce positions at low prices, and for breeding enterprises, to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions with slaughter. [140] 5.4 Soybean Meal 5.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of soybean meal has been slightly strong. The futures price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal has increased due to the Middle - East conflict. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish before the Strait is unsealed. [144][145][146] 5.4.2 Core Points - Soybean planting: The production and inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season are analyzed. The planting area, yield, and demand of US soybeans and the production forecast of South American soybeans are provided. [147][148] - US soybean export: The US soybean export data shows a certain trend, and the future procurement situation needs attention. [153] - Domestic soybean import and crushing: The crushing profit, crushing volume, opening rate, import volume, and inventory of domestic soybeans are analyzed. [162][163][165] - Soybean meal transaction and inventory: The inventory of soybean meal has decreased, and the future demand is related to the import soybean auction. [169] - Basis and inter - month spread: The basis of soybean meal has decreased, and the 5 - 7 spread has widened slightly. [175] - Domestic registered warehouse receipts: The number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at the highest level in the same period in history. [181] 5.5 Eggs 5.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of eggs has been weak first and then stable. The futures price has changed little. Based on the inflation expectation, it is advisable to pay attention to the layout opportunities of long positions in the peak season of the second half of the year. [184] 5.5.2 Data Summary - Inventory and replenishment: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period, and the replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - aged hens and egg sizes is analyzed. [185][189] - Cost, income, and breeding profit: The egg price has decreased, the feed cost is at a medium level, the chick price is at a medium level, and the breeding profit is at a very low level. [194] - Culled hens: The culling volume has increased, the culling age has been delayed, and the culled hen price is at a medium - low level in the same period. [196] - Demand, inventory, and hog price: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the hog price is at a low level in the same period. [202] 5.6 Cotton 5.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The outer - market cotton has fluctuated and declined, and the Zhengzhou cotton has adjusted. The domestic spot market is not active, and the market demand is gradually released. The short - term market is expected to adjust with a strong trend unchanged. [207][208][209] 5.6.2 Core Points - Cotton - producing countries' situation: The USDA's February supply - demand report has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with changes in inventory, production, trade, and consumption. [210] - US cotton export situation: The US cotton sales and shipment data in the 2025/2026 season show different trends. [217] - Textile enterprise operation: The cotton and cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises and the load index of yarn and grey cloth are analyzed. [219] - Basis and inter - month spread: The basis has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. [230] - CFTC positions and domestic registered warehouse receipts: The non - commercial net position of US cotton has increased, and the number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts has increased. [233] 5.7 Sugar 5.7.1 Data Overview - The raw sugar index is weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar index has tested the 5400 level. The spot price is weak, and the basis is expanding. The 5 - 9 spread has changed little, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. [237][238][240][242] - The production situation in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season is analyzed, including sugar production, ethanol production, and related ratios. The import processing profit of raw sugar has increased, and the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar has decreased. [244][245][248][249]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rebounded with a weekly increase of about 2.73%. After the Spring Festival, the market recovery was slow, the spot price was at a relatively low level in recent years, and the inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years. As of March 5, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujube this week was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The downstream replenishment was average, the processing plants had not started work intensively, and with the warming weather, jujube sales entered the off - season [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.73% [9]. - **Market Outlook**: After the Spring Festival, the market recovery was slow, the spot price was at a low level in recent years, and the inventory was at a relatively high level. The inventory decreased slightly this week, the market was slowly recovering, the downstream replenishment was average, and the inventory removal speed was slow. As the weather warms up, jujube sales enter the off - season [9]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to spot prices and the consumer side [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.73% [13]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 20,523 lots [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,869 [19]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2609 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 355 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was 165 yuan/ton [25]. - **Purchase Price in Main Producing Areas**: As of March 6, 2026, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [28]. - **First - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of March 6, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade gray jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 3.95 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [32]. - **Special - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of March 6, 2026, the spot price of special - grade gray jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.19 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.50 yuan/kg [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Inventory**: As of March 5, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujube this week was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04% [41]. - **Supply - Side - Yield**: The jujube yield in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [45]. - **Demand - Side - Export**: In December 2025, China's jujube export volume was 5,071,577 kg, the export value was 79,876,362 yuan, the export average price was 15,749.81 yuan/ton, the export volume increased by 43.36% month - on - month and decreased by 18.20% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume was 34,362,765 kg, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.58% [48]. - **Demand - Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of transactions [53]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujube this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not described in the text [54]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni, but specific data is not described in the text [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures prices continued to rise this week, with the main 2605 contract closing at 2393 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn market was boosted by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp rise in international oil prices and pushed up freight rates. In the domestic market, the selling pressure risk of corn in the Northeast production area after the Spring Festival decreased, and farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply from the grass - roots level remained low, while feed - using enterprises were eager to replenish their inventories, leading to an increase in purchase prices, although the increase rate slowed down. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the inventory of processing enterprises was further consumed during the Spring Festival, and the demand for corn procurement increased. Due to continuous rain and snow and the slow pace of grass - roots grain sales, the arrival volume at enterprise gates remained low, and the price center continued to move up [8]. - Corn starch futures also rose this week, with the main 2605 contract closing at 2667 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week. As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually resumed after the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and the supply pressure increased. The inventory continued to rise. As of March 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.10 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.75% and a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35%. However, the downstream demand also gradually recovered, and the order signing and shipment of enterprises improved compared with last week. Supported by the strong performance of corn, the starch market also showed a strong and volatile trend [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Corn** - **Market Review**: The corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2393 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The international corn market was affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the domestic market was influenced by factors such as reduced selling pressure in the Northeast, low grass - roots supply, and strong inventory replenishment demand from enterprises [8]. - **Corn Starch** - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2667 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply pressure increased as the operating rate rose, and the inventory continued to rise. However, the downstream demand also recovered, and the market was supported by the strong performance of corn [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - The corn futures May contract fluctuated and rose this week, with a total position of 1,519,542 lots, an increase of 44,064 lots from last week. The corn starch futures May contract also fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 265,685 lots, an increase of 34,173 lots from last week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 204,773 this week, with little change in net short positions compared with last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 23,235 this week, with a decrease in net short positions compared with last week [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 79,152 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,010 lots [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of March 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2413.73 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active May contract of corn and the spot average price was + 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2850 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the May contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was - 11 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread** - The 5 - 7 spread of corn was - 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch was also - 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [44]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The spread between the May contract of starch and corn was 318 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week [53]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of March 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2537.06 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2413.73 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 123.33 yuan/ton. In the 9th week of 2026, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch widened, with an average spread of 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton compared with last week [58]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 74.3 million tons, an increase of 12.40 million tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 14.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.80 million tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 172.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons week - on - week; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 23.2 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 million tons week - on - week [48]. - **Domestic Grain Sales Progress**: As of March 5, the total domestic corn sales progress was 70%, an increase of 4% from the previous week and a decrease of 5% year - on - year [60]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 80.01 million tons, an increase of 45.69 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and an increase of 24.52 million tons compared with the previous month [64]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of March 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.25 days, a decrease of 1.04 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60% [68]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 2.24 million heads compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 1.16 million heads, a decrease of 2.9% [72]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of February 27, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was 20.83 yuan/head [76]. - **Processing Profit**: As of March 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 88 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 621 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 670 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [81]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of March 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 343.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.77% [85]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 58.89 million tons, an increase of 7.02 million tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 29.83 million tons, an increase of 4.84 million tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 54.52%, an increase of 8.85% from last week. As of March 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.10 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.75%, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35% [89]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of March 6, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn was 12.35%, a recovery of 2.29% from 10.06% last week. The implied volatility fluctuated and recovered this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [92].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the peanut market from the Ruida Futures Research Institute, dated March 6, 2026 [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary - This week, the main peanut contract 2605 rose by 0.2% [7][10] - Currently, farmers and traders are not eager to sell, and the supply from the grass - roots level remains low. After the Lantern Festival, the supply will gradually increase. The domestic market sales are slow, and traders purchase as they sell. Some medium - and large - scale oil mills have started purchasing, and the purchase price of oilseeds has increased compared to before the Spring Festival, but the overall arrival volume is small. The main oil mills have no clear purchase plans. Short - term focus should be on the purchase dynamics of oil mills and the shipping rhythm in the production areas [7] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The main peanut contract 2605 rose by 0.2% this week [10] - The closing price spread of the peanut 5 - 10 futures contract was reported at - 354 yuan/ton [14] - As of March 5, 2026, the long - position of the top 20 in peanut futures was 136,798 lots, the short - position was 137,249 lots, and the net position was - 451 lots, a decrease of 4,970 lots compared to last week [20] - The warehouse receipt this week was 0. As of March 5, 2025, the registered peanut warehouse receipts were 900 (+0) [21][24] Spot Market - As of March 5, the spot prices of general - purpose peanut kernels in Shandong and Henan were 9,000 (+0) yuan/ton and 7,000 (- 100) yuan/ton respectively. As of the week of February 28, the average price of national oil peanuts was 7,475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [30] - As of March 5, 2026, the basis was 487.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.66 yuan/ton compared to last week, indicating an inverted market [36] Group 4: Industrial Chain Supply - The peanut harvest area in 2025 is expected to increase slightly [37][40] Oil Mill Operations - As of March 5, the operating rate of sample oil mills was 3.13 (2.93)%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.71%. The peanut inventory of sample oil mills was 195,945 (6,500) tons [46] - On February 26, 2026, the average purchase contract price of oil peanuts by oil mills was 7,350 yuan/ton, the total processing cost was 7,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 87 yuan/ton. The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14,317 yuan/ton, and the average price of 48% protein peanut meal was 3,050 yuan/ton. The total revenue was 7,803.31 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.31 yuan/ton. The theoretical processing profit was 103.31 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 79.69 yuan/ton [50] Import and Export - In December 2025, the total peanut import volume was 25,628.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11,663.46 tons (31.28%) and a month - on - month decrease of 3,304.86 tons [53] Downstream Products - As of March 5, the ex - factory price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil was about 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price of strong - flavored peanut oil was about 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] - This week, the price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong was 3,250 (0) yuan/ton. As of March 5, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was 210 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [64] Group 5: Options Market - The report mentions the 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatility of the peanut options underlying, but no specific data is provided [66] Group 6: Stock Market - The report mentions the price - to - earnings ratio of Jinlongyu, but no specific data is provided [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The export signing volume of US cotton decreased, while the export shipment volume increased. In the domestic market, the port inventory increased significantly due to the large - scale arrival of cotton, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of March 5, the inventory of major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering, mainly shipping previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products has decreased, and the pressure is limited. Considering the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: According to the USDA report, in the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 282,200 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. In the domestic market, the supply - side pressure increased, and the downstream consumption was gradually recovering. The short - term upward trend of cotton prices was expected to remain unchanged [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 103,424 contracts, an increase of 3,841 contracts from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 132,394 contracts, a decrease of 22,922 contracts from the previous week; the net short position was 28,970 contracts, a decrease of 26,763 contracts from the previous week. The price of the May contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.89% [12]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract decreased by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 189,104 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 1,377 contracts. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,443, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [19][25][29]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 5 - 9 contracts was - 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,242 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: As of March 6, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,678 yuan/ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,920 yuan/ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,380 yuan/ton, and the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,700 yuan/ton [41][52]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 5, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 268 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 438 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 4, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,509 yuan/ton; C32S was 21,834 yuan/ton; JC32S was 23,500 yuan/ton [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of March 5, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 2,938 yuan/ton, an increase of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,379 yuan/ton, an increase of 328 yuan/ton from the previous week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% increase from the previous month and a 1.75% increase from the same period last year. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [64]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 31% increase from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% decrease from the same period last year. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [68]. - **Mid - end Industry - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a 1.87% decrease from the previous period [71]. - **Terminal Consumption - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a 7.4% decrease from the same period last year and an 8.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year; garment exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a 10.2% decrease from the same period last year [75]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% increase from the previous month [79]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented in the figure [80]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented in the figure [83].