Group 1: Market Overview - Recent focus in the Chinese capital market is on the RMB exchange rate and non-ferrous metal trends [1][22] - The A-share market opened strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points, marking a 10-year high, while the H-share market experienced slight adjustments [8][24] - The strong performance in the equity market is contrasted by a pullback in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.9% [10][26] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal market, particularly copper and aluminum, is expected to maintain strong performance, driven by strategic resource pricing and unexpected monetary easing in the U.S. [2][22] - Copper prices are projected to continue rising, with a target of $13,000 not being the peak for this cycle, and a favorable outlook for 2026 [2][22] - The essence of the non-ferrous market is seen as a reflection of the global shift in pricing and order, with copper expected to take over from gold [2][22] Group 3: Currency Outlook - There is a bullish outlook on the appreciation of the RMB, driven by the return of funds to China and a revaluation of RMB assets [2][22] - The short-term stability of the RMB exchange rate is anticipated, with discussions on appreciation likely to coincide with peaks in foreign exchange settlements [2][22] Group 4: Economic Policies and Data - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [18][37] - Recent economic data shows a positive trend, with December CPI and PPI both increasing by 0.2%, indicating improvements in various sectors [19][38] - The government is taking measures to combat "involution" in sectors like photovoltaics, batteries, and food delivery platforms [36][37] Group 5: Commodity Performance - Geopolitical risks have led to a resurgence in gold and oil markets, with gold prices breaking through $4,500 per ounce and copper prices exceeding $13,000 [16][32] - The oil market is experiencing a rebound driven by geopolitical premiums rather than fundamental improvements, with global oversupply limiting long-term price increases [35][32]

中信建投研报认为，近期美元指数有所反弹，但人民币汇率仍然坚挺，整体环境对A股仍然较为有利。 通胀水平温和回升，经济复苏的内生动能逐渐修复，利好A股慢牛行情持续性。从市场情绪看，我们认 为跨年行情有望继续演绎，但短期技术性回调风险上升。当前市场行业表现分化，有充分预期的板块横 盘等待兑现验证，与此同时概念主题表现活跃，前期落后板块补涨。整体而言，我们继续看好跨年行 情，行业主要围绕未来产业热点、AI和半导体、资源品涨价链展开。行业重点关注：半导体、AI、有 色金属、化工、机械、传媒、计算机、医药；主题重点关注：脑机接口、商业航天、可控核聚变、人形 机器人、量子科技等。 ...

从板块来看，看好军工板块的投资者比例大幅提高，环比提升6个百分点。 对下周上证指数怎么看? 4% ■ 震荡走高,突破4200点 43% ■ 晨荡走低,跌破4000点 ■ 横盘震荡 46% ■ 无法判断 7% A股持续震荡走高，投资者信心回升，但目前上证指数处于近十年高位，同样有部分投资者对市场上涨 势头有所迟疑。数据显示，43%的投资者认为下周市场将"震荡走高，突破4200点"；46%的投资者认为 市场将"横盘震荡"；仅有7%的投资者明确看空市场，表示下周市场将"震荡走低，跌破4000点"。 | 军工板块看好比例大幅提高 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 12月27日调管 | | 1月3日调查 | 1月10日调查 | | 大金融 | 6% | 5% | 4% | | 大消费 | 8% | 6% | 4% | | 医药 | 4% | 3% | 5% | | 科技 | 47% | 58% | 56% | | 年1 | 7% | 7% | 13% | | 有色金属 | 16% | 11% | 9% | | 新能源 | 8% | 4% | 2% | | 次新股 | - | ...

Group 1 - The current market rally, referred to as "开门红," is supported by improving macroeconomic data and ample liquidity, which enhances market risk appetite and attracts new capital inflows [1][9][40] - Various types of trading funds have shown accelerated entry into the market, including a net inflow of 78.9 billion yuan in margin financing since the beginning of the year and an average daily net inflow of retail funds returning to around 30 billion yuan [1][9][40] - The structural consensus among different types of funds is strong, focusing on sectors such as TMT (storage, AI applications), military (commercial aerospace), non-ferrous metals, new energy (controlled nuclear fusion), machinery (robots), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, brain-machine interfaces) [2][35][38] Group 2 - The global stock market is experiencing a strong start in 2026, driven by expectations of loose liquidity, geopolitical changes, and emerging industrial trends, with A-shares reflecting this global narrative [5][38] - Key events such as the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and geopolitical developments are catalyzing themes in the market, enhancing the strategic value of resource products and driving structural similarities across global markets [5][38] - The market is currently in a favorable position with limited downside risk and significant potential for upward movement, supported by improved PMI and price data, as well as a high percentage of stocks still below their previous highs [11][44] Group 3 - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace sector has raised concerns about its current crowding and sustainability, with trading volume indicating a potential for further upward movement [16][51] - As the earnings forecast disclosure period approaches, the correlation between stock prices and earnings will increase, necessitating a focus on structural adjustments based on performance [21][57] - Industries with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (consumer electronics, computing), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military), and cyclical sectors (building materials, non-ferrous metals) [26][58]

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 大势与风格 5 | | 中观行业与景气 7 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 9 | | 风险提示 10 | tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 11 ...

Group 1 - In December 2025, the enthusiasm for stock buybacks in the A-share market significantly increased, with both the number of companies announcing buyback plans and the total amount seeing substantial growth [1] - A total of 35 companies announced new buyback plans in December, representing an increase of nearly 60% compared to 22 companies in November [1] - The total proposed buyback amount for these 35 companies reached approximately 10.548 billion yuan, a 54.89% increase from 6.81 billion yuan in November [1] - Among these companies, 24 planned to buy back over 100 million yuan, accounting for 68.57% of the total [1] Group 2 - State-owned enterprises and industry leaders showed prominent performance in the buyback announcements, with notable companies like China Metallurgical Group and Dong'e Ejiao participating [1] - The companies with the highest proposed buyback amounts included China Metallurgical Group (2.5 billion yuan), Luxshare Precision (2 billion yuan), ZTE Corporation (1.2 billion yuan), and others, highlighting the financial strength and market responsibility of leading enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Changchun Modern Urban Circle aims to enhance the city's radiating effect, promote urban integration, and serve as a driving force for high-quality development in Jilin Province and revitalization in Northeast China [1] Group 1: Urban Circle Development - The Changchun Modern Urban Circle, centered around Changchun City, includes Jilin City, Siping City, and Liaoyuan City, covering an area of approximately 29,700 square kilometers with a resident population of about 12.1 million [1] - The "Changchun Urban Circle Development Plan" was officially issued in October 2025, marking the transition from planning to implementation [1] Group 2: Industrial Collaboration - The urban circle will leverage its industrial foundation and educational resources to enhance industrial layout and collaborative systems, focusing on sectors like automotive, equipment manufacturing, green food, and fine chemicals [2] - A collaborative model will be established where R&D headquarters are in Changchun, manufacturing occurs within the circle, and innovation results are transformed and applied locally [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Connectivity - Key projects will be initiated in transportation, energy, water resources, and information sectors to improve connectivity and resource flow within the urban circle [3] - A comprehensive transportation network will be developed, including high-speed rail, highways, and aviation, alongside a robust energy and water resource system [3] Group 4: Public Services - The province aims to create a public service system that is equitable, high-quality, and regionally shared, focusing on education, healthcare, and employment security [4] - The goal is to ensure that the benefits of urban circle development are distributed fairly among the population [4] Group 5: Open Cooperation - The urban circle will promote industrial collaboration, transportation linkage, and innovation synergy with other cities in the province, creating five cooperative development zones [5] - New channels and platforms for open cooperation will be established with other provinces in Northeast China, enhancing the region's openness [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the service industry is increasingly merging with technology, leading to the emergence of top-tier listed companies in sectors such as fintech, logistics, enterprise services, and healthcare [2][10] - Countries are exploring unique paths to develop their service industries, with examples including the U.S. focusing on fintech innovation, Germany emphasizing industrial design, and Singapore building digital infrastructure [2][10] - China's national strategy aims to enhance service industry capacity and quality through targeted policies, including the removal of entry barriers in key sectors like telecommunications and healthcare [2][39] Group 2 - The report identifies three main investment directions in the service industry: productive services, lifestyle services, and emerging services [2][45] - Productive services are seen as a core engine, with sectors like testing, industrial software, and financial services highlighted for their growth potential [2][3][45] - Lifestyle services are focused on improving living standards and consumption upgrades, with high growth observed in areas such as gaming, aviation, and tourism [3][45] Group 3 - Emerging services are positioned as key to cultivating new productive forces, with rapid developments in AI and the integration of healthcare and pharmaceutical services [4][45] - The report emphasizes the importance of cross-border e-commerce as a new growth driver for foreign trade, leveraging China's supply chain advantages [4][45] - Specific companies such as Cintas and CVS Health are cited as examples of successful service firms in the U.S., showcasing effective business models and market strategies [1][15][18]

Core Viewpoint - The current spring market is expected to favor technology growth and certain cyclical industries, with commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces emerging as key investment themes for the season [1][5]. Group 1: Spring Market Trends - The main phase of the spring market may witness a rebound, with industries benefiting from positive policies and trends likely to perform strongly [2]. - Historical data indicates that during the main phase of the spring market, sectors with low valuation sentiment and significant inflows of financing tend to experience a rebound [2]. - Industries such as communication, social services, and beauty care have shown strong performance during previous spring market phases due to favorable policies and industry trends [2]. Group 2: Technology and Cyclical Industries - Technology growth sectors like media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound in the upcoming spring market due to low valuations and sentiment [3]. - Supportive policies for technology growth and cyclical industries are likely to continue, with initiatives in commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence being implemented [3]. - The upward trend in industries related to commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence is anticipated to persist in the short term [3]. Group 3: Economic and Liquidity Outlook - The economy is expected to continue its weak recovery, with profit growth likely to rebound, as indicated by the rising PPI year-on-year growth [4]. - Macro liquidity is projected to further loosen, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central banks [4]. - Risk appetite in the market may continue to improve due to the implementation of positive policies and limited overseas risks [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on technology growth and cyclical growth sectors, as theme indices typically outperform primary industry indices during the main phase of the spring market [5]. - Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces are highlighted as key investment themes, with the space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 [5]. - Industries such as military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, gaming), and computing (AI applications, brain-computer interfaces) are recommended for low-cost allocation [5].

Group 1: Market Trends - The spring market's main rising phase may see a rebound in growth sectors, particularly those with low valuation sentiment and significant future financing inflows[1] - Historical data shows that during the main rising phases, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by approximately 4% to 22%, averaging around 19 trading days[10] - Key sectors that performed well during previous main rising phases include media, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, which experienced substantial financing inflows[1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the current spring market, technology growth sectors such as media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound due to low valuations and sentiment[2] - Financing inflows since December 17, 2025, have been significant in sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and defense, driven by ongoing industry trends[18] - The main rising phase typically sees theme indices outperforming primary industry indices, with notable gains in sectors like integrated circuits and digital marketing[42] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Short-term economic recovery remains weak, with CPI growth recorded at 0.8% and PPI at -1.9%, indicating a gradual improvement in industrial profitability[23] - The short-term liquidity environment is expected to loosen further, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central bank actions[31] - Risk appetite is likely to increase due to positive policy implementations and limited overseas risks, such as the anticipated Fed rate cut[38]