Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to rise with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, reaching a new high for the year. The crack spread and monthly spread of high-sulfur fuel oil slightly declined from their peaks, while low-sulfur fuel oil was relatively strong in the short term [4]. - The ongoing expansion of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has caused crude oil prices and related oil product prices to continue to soar. As the world's most important energy trade route, the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz may be restricted, and the risk premium will still be included in the fuel oil price until the geopolitical risk is lifted [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, the export volume from the Middle East has remained stable in the short term and does not seem to have been significantly affected. Despite support from the demand side and the presence of geopolitical risks, the upside potential of high-sulfur fuel oil may be limited before there is a substantial decline in supply [4]. - Although low-sulfur fuel oil's share of the marine fuel demand has been continuously squeezed by high-sulfur fuel oil, the exports from Brazil and Northwest Europe to Asia have both declined, which has improved the supply-demand balance in the Asia-Pacific market. As a result, the monthly spread and crack spread of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore have also increased along with the price [4]. - Compared with the overseas market, the low-sulfur fuel oil output of domestic refineries is expected to recover soon. The increase in spot supply may cause LU to be relatively weaker than the overseas market in the future [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - This week, fuel oil prices continued to rise significantly. The core of the current geopolitical conflict lies in the possible restriction of the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the geopolitical risk is removed, the risk premium will be included in the fuel oil price. The export volume from the Middle East has remained stable in the short term, and the upside potential of high-sulfur fuel oil may be limited. The decline in exports from Brazil and Northwest Europe to Asia has improved the supply-demand balance in the Asia-Pacific market for low-sulfur fuel oil. However, the recovery of domestic refinery output may cause LU to be relatively weaker than the overseas market [4]. Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [19]. Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [22]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the United States from 2018 - 2025 are presented [25][27][28]. Price and Spread - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [36][38][39][41]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high-sulfur fuel oil cargo in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in the USAC from 2018 - 2025 are presented [43][44]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur fuel oil swaps in Singapore, the 380 bunker swaps in Singapore, FU, and LU from 2021 - 2025 are provided [46][51]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the high-sulfur crack spread in Singapore, the 3.5% crack spread in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur crack spread in Singapore, and the 1% crack spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [60][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are provided [66][67]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [72][74]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [77]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [79].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Review**: The global fuel oil price fluctuated significantly this week. As the geopolitical conflict intensified, the price gradually increased, while the crack spread and monthly spread slightly declined from their highs [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The fuel oil price has been rising since the beginning of the week. Due to the escalating geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel, the prices of crude oil and related oil products have all increased. The core issue affected by this conflict is the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait is closed due to the conflict, the fuel oil exports from the entire Middle East will be significantly affected. The fuel oil exports from countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait will be severely restricted. Coupled with the already significantly reduced exports from Iran, 85% of the fuel oil exports from the Middle East will be threatened. Since these countries mainly export high - sulfur fuel oil, the price of Singapore 380 will remain strong in the coming period. In terms of low - sulfur fuel oil, Kuwait, a new low - sulfur fuel oil supplier in the Asia - Pacific region in recent years, may also be affected in its low - sulfur component exports due to this geopolitical conflict. Meanwhile, the quantity of low - sulfur fuel oil spot arriving in Singapore from Brazil has decreased month - on - month. The spot supply in the low - sulfur market will continue to be tight, which will have a positive impact on the price. Therefore, in the near future, attention can be paid to the long positions in fuel oil crack spreads and near - month spreads, especially for high - sulfur fuel oil, which is more affected [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, with data from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: The report shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU units, hydrocracking units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It presents the monthly fuel oil production in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly low - sulfur fuel oil production of Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2021 - 2024 [18]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The report provides data on the monthly fuel oil bunker sales in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025 [21]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the Singapore heavy oil inventory from 2018 - 2025, the European ARA fuel oil inventory from 2018 - 2025, the Fujairah heavy distillate inventory from 2018 - 2025, and the US residual fuel oil inventory from 2018 - 2025 [24][26][27]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Price**: The report presents the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 [31][32][33][34]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Price**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in the USAC from 2018 - 2025 [41][42]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Price**: Although the data is incomplete, it is about the fuel oil spot price in the US [43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of high - sulfur swaps and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, low - sulfur fuel oil swaps and 380 bunker fuel swaps in Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU contracts [44][47][50]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: The report presents the high - sulfur and low - sulfur crack spreads in Singapore, the 3.5% and 1% crack spreads in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 [59][60][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It shows the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The report provides the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [78].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including "volatile and bullish" and "volatile" for various energy and chemical products [1][2][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East are the main reason for the rapid rise in oil prices. The short - term trend of Brent crude oil is expected to be volatile and bullish after breaking through the $70 integer mark [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the tight supply in June and the cost - side rebound, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be volatile and bullish. Considering the summer demand peak, a long - spread strategy can be considered when the spread is low [2] - **Asphalt**: Although there is short - term bottom support for asphalt prices due to low supply in North China and expected supply reduction in Shandong, the upward space is limited due to increased rainfall in the South. The overall trend is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium term [2] - **Polyester**: PX follows the cost trend and is in a de - stocking pattern. TA is under price pressure due to weak fundamentals, and EG shows a volatile trend with weak demand support [4] - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support from raw material prices, the high inventory of downstream tires limits the rebound space of rubber prices [4] - **Methanol**: Despite the increase in port and inland inventories, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive methanol prices up [6] - **Polyolefins**: With the fading of tariff impacts and the arrival of the off - season, the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. The sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to push polyolefin prices up [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Although the fundamentals are under pressure as the downstream enters the off - season, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive PVC prices to rebound [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI July contract rose $3.17 to $68.15/barrel, a 4.88% increase; Brent August contract rose $2.90 to $69.77/barrel, a 4.34% increase; SC2507 closed at 497.4 yuan/barrel, up 16.2 yuan/barrel, a 3.37% increase. Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories are the main factors driving the price increase [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2507 fell 0.74% to 2939 yuan/ton, and LU2508 rose 0.17% to 3563 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market is relatively stable [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2509 fell 1.06% to 3461 yuan/ton. The total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The supply in North China is low, and there is an expected reduction in Shandong [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 0.17% to 4620 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 0.37% to 4285 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 0.4% to 6528 yuan/ton. TA's fundamentals are weak, and EG's inventory is increasing [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2509 rose 85 yuan/ton to 13890 yuan/ton, NR rose 60 yuan/ton to 12215 yuan/ton, and BR fell 5 yuan/ton to 11225 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen slightly, but downstream demand is weak [4] - **Methanol**: The MTO device operating rate remains high, and port and inland inventories are increasing. The price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyolefins**: The profit margins of different production methods vary. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but the price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The domestic real estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season. The price is expected to rebound due to the increase in crude oil prices [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and basis rate quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - China and the US held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, reaching a consensus on some economic and trade issues [11] - The US EIA reported a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories last week, with an increase in refinery utilization rate [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents price trend charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows basis trend charts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, including the basis between different benchmarks and the basis of main contracts [29][30][31] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides spread trend charts for different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and ethylene glycol [43][44][45] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It shows spread trend charts between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, and the spread between fuel oil and asphalt [59][60][61] 4.5 Production Profits - The report presents production profit trend charts for products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 2952.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3020.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.05% increase [1] - The current fuel oil sales in China are 44,200 tons, up from 43,100 tons in the previous period, indicating a 2.55% increase [1] - The inventory rate for domestic fuel oil is at 6.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous period's 5.6% [1] Group 2 - ARA region fuel oil inventories have decreased, which is favorable for fuel oil prices [2] - The trade demand is recovering as tariff disputes move towards agreement, which is expected to support fuel oil prices [2] - The cost side is seeing a rebound in crude oil prices, which is anticipated to drive fuel oil prices higher [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - **Related Information**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - **Related Information**: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - **Related Information**: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - **Related Information**: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - **Related Information**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - **Related Information**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - **Related Information**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - **Related Information**: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - **Related Information**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - **Related Information**: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - **Related Information**: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - **Market Review**: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - **Related Information**: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - **Related Information**: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 19. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - **Related Information**: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 20. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - **Related Information**: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - **Related Information**: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5