此「油」不同彼「油」？｜伍禮賢 - 2026 年 3 月 24 日 香港 01 開採與運輸之別 紐油主要開採自美國本土·核心產區集中在德克薩斯州（Texas ）·路易斯 安那州 ( Louisiana ) 以及頁岩油儲量較為明顯的北達科他州 ( North Dakota）。與許多可以直接經海路出口的原油不同,紐油的最大特點在於其 內陸屬性,由於產區位於北美內陸地區,紐油高度依賴美國國內龐大的管道 網絡,原油被開採後會通過管道輸送至位於俄克拉荷馬州的庫欣 （Cushing）。該地是紐油期貨合約的官方交割地，同時亦擁有巨大的儲油 設施,是北美原油庫存的所在地。 布油的產地位於北大西洋的北海海域，橫跨英國與挪威等國的專屬經濟區, 主要透過海上鑽油台作原油開採。北海油田開採所得出的原油,可直接通過 短距離管道輸送至沿岸,並可被送上大型運油輪出口至各地。 價格影響因素 https://www.hk01.com/article/60332655?utm_source=01articlecopy&utm_medium =referral 「紐油」及「布油」 「紐油」通常是指美國紐約原油期貨,正式名稱為西德克薩斯中質原油 ( ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年3月24日 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日原油期货主力合约2605合约下跌8.20%至739.1元/吨，最低价在715.0元/吨，最高价在799.0 元/吨，持仓量减少1305至55694手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 EIA数据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，但成品油去库幅度较大，整体油品库存略有增加。 市场聚焦中东局势，伊朗原油产量和出口量较大，伊朗日产原油约330万桶，占全球产量的3%，日均 出口约160万桶，且位于原油海运要道—霍尔木兹海峡。2025年每日约有1300万桶原油通过该海峡， 占全球海运原油流量的约31%。霍尔木兹海峡近乎停航多日已经引发中东产油国减产。美伊目前均无 意停火。伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书阿里·拉里贾尼遇袭身亡。伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内 伊发表声明誓言"血债将很快得到清算"。3月18日，伊朗上游油气设施首次成为攻击目标，伊朗最 大的天然气田—南帕尔斯气田和阿萨卢耶部分石油化工设施遭袭击，伊朗随后宣布已对地区内与美 国相关的石油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global oil supply gap has reached 16 million barrels per day, expected to remain around 10 million barrels per day in April, significantly exceeding any historical supply disruption events [1][8] Group 1: Supply Gap and Uncertainties - The modeling of unprecedented events like the Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed traditional analytical frameworks to their limits, with no historical precedent for the scale and complexity of this disruption [2] - The greatest uncertainty lies in the duration of the conflict, with mixed signals from the U.S. and Israel regarding its length, while Iran appears to believe time is on its side [2] - Even if hostilities cease, normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz may not resume immediately, highlighting the structural impact of the disruption [2] Group 2: Regional Impact and Inventory - Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imports and limited domestic refining capacity, leading to a significant shortfall in crude and refined oil [3] - Countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka may need to draw heavily on commercial product inventories, estimated at 129 million barrels, potentially contributing about 1 million barrels per day in supply relief over the coming months [3] Group 3: Floating Storage and Sanctions - Iran holds approximately 38 million barrels of floating oil and refined products, while Russia has about 17 million barrels, together potentially releasing around 500,000 barrels per day to the market [4] - However, the formal lifting of sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil may have limited marginal impact on actual supply, as these products have been flowing through alternative channels [5] - The significant aspect of lifting sanctions could be that it allows large state-owned refineries in India to engage in procurement more confidently, replacing more cautious private buyers [7] Group 4: Price Mechanisms and Demand Destruction - The only remaining adjustment mechanism in this context is rising prices, which are leading to demand destruction across various sectors [9] - The chemical, aviation, and agricultural industries are facing significant pressure due to supply constraints, with refineries reducing operating rates and product output declining sharply [10] - The impact of the blockade is particularly concentrated on naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and jet fuel, with about 5% of global ethylene capacity in Japan and South Korea already shut down [11][13] - The aviation sector is under pressure as jet fuel costs typically account for over 20% of operating expenses, leading airlines to cut routes, especially in Africa and Europe [14]

研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 3 月 24 日 原油现货市场日报 Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 唐纳德·特朗普总统表示， 在美伊双方进行他所谓的 "富有成果的对话 | | --- | --- | | | " 后， 美国将推迟打击伊朗的能源基础设施。 此番言论引发了外界对对 | | | 话参与者及协议具体范围的困惑 | | | 《华尔街日报》报道称， 沙特阿拉伯与阿拉伯联合酋长国已采取步骤介 | | 地缘政治 | 入伊朗战事， 此举可能意味着冲突的升级。 | | | 休斯顿的旗舰能源盛会通常是人情往来的社交场合。 但今年， 与会高管 | | | 们正紧张关注着伊朗战事的影响， 以及僵局化解途径的缺失。 | | | 中国周一采取行动以缓解燃料价格上涨的影响， 上调了零售汽油和柴油 | | | 的管制上限价格， 但将涨幅限制在政府定价机制下常规调整幅度的一半 | | | 左右。 | | 贸易物流 | 船东从红海向亚洲运输沙特原油的运费在过去几周内暴跌， 原因是有更 | | | 多油轮涌向延布港， 以承运因霍尔木兹海峡关闭而改道的石油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brent and WTI prices are experiencing an upward trend as initial relief from President Donald Trump's comments regarding talks between Washington and Tehran diminishes [1] Group 1 - The rise in oil prices is attributed to market reactions to geopolitical developments [1] - President Trump's comments initially provided a sense of relief, which has since faded, leading to increased oil prices [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield increased due to renewed volatility in oil markets and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, causing investor unease [2][4] - Oil prices rebounded after a significant drop, indicating that markets are skeptical about a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict, especially after Iranian officials denied any talks took place [3][4] - Analysts highlighted that conflicting news has heightened uncertainty, making both energy and rates markets sensitive to developments in the region [4][5] Group 2 - Headline risk remains high as the conflict continues without a clear resolution, with U.S. rates expected to be influenced primarily by fluctuations in energy prices until more clarity is achieved [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Group announced a significant oil production capacity of nearly 1 million barrels per day, positioning itself among the world's leading oil producers [1][3]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Financial Impact - The production capacity of 1 million barrels per day translates to over $100 million in daily oil and gas revenue, resulting in an annualized income exceeding $40 billion, comparable to the GDP of a small country [3]. - This production level surpasses traditional oil powerhouses like the UK and Malaysia, highlighting CK Hutchison's growing strength in the oil sector [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Moves - The company's journey in the oil sector began in 1986 when Li Ka-shing invested in Husky Energy at a time when oil prices were low, demonstrating foresight in a challenging market [5]. - Technological advancements have significantly reduced extraction costs, enabling the company to expand its production capacity effectively [5]. - In 2025, CK Hutchison acquired key assets from MEG Energy for HKD 44.3 billion, positioning itself strategically ahead of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [5]. Group 3: Stability and Strategic Positioning - The oil sector has become a core revenue source for CK Hutchison, providing substantial profits that can support dividends and enhance investor confidence, especially during downturns in other sectors like real estate [7]. - The company's assets are primarily located in Canada, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Eastern Europe [7]. - Over 60% of the crude oil is transported directly to China, establishing Husky as a significant supplier in the Chinese market [7]. Group 4: Long-term Vision and Market Strategy - CK Hutchison's approach reflects a long-term strategy that emphasizes understanding underlying market trends and waiting for value to return, rather than seeking quick profits [11]. - The company's substantial production capacity is not just a numerical achievement but represents a strategic play in the evolving energy landscape, potentially influencing future market dynamics [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the US-Iran conflict, highlighting the potential implications for oil prices, inflation, and the upcoming US midterm elections. It suggests that the conflict is influenced by multiple pressures on the US, including high oil prices, political pressures, and military expenditures, which may lead to a shift in strategy towards negotiations with Iran [2][7]. Group 1: Recent Developments - On March 21, Trump demanded Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face destruction of its power plants. On March 23, he signaled a willingness to negotiate, announcing a five-day pause in attacks on Iranian energy facilities [2][5]. - Following Trump's announcement, global market panic eased, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with WTI crude oil contracts falling by 9.53% and Brent crude by 9.44% on the same day [6][7]. - The US is under pressure from high oil prices, which have surged from around $70 per barrel to nearly $120, impacting inflation and economic growth [7][8]. Group 2: Future Scenarios - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the US-Iran conflict: 1. Substantial negotiations leading to a de-escalation of conflict, resulting in a significant drop in energy prices and easing inflation concerns [3][12]. 2. A psychological warfare phase where both sides engage in limited negotiations while maintaining military readiness, potentially leading to fluctuating oil prices [16][20]. 3. A prolonged conflict characterized by strategic deception, where the US aims to weaken Iran without genuine negotiations, possibly leading to a global energy crisis reminiscent of the 1970s [22][24]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The US seeks to maintain dominance in the Middle East by undermining Iran's nuclear capabilities and controlling its energy resources, as Iran holds significant oil and gas reserves [9][10]. - The conflict is viewed as part of a broader resource war, with the US aiming to secure its interests in oil and maintain the "petrodollar" system amidst rising global competition for resources [10][25]. - Historical parallels are drawn to previous oil crises, suggesting that the current situation could lead to similar economic disruptions if the conflict escalates [25][28].

[Table_Summary] 报告要点： 货币政策与地区冲突共同压制全球股市 n.qq.com/s/TX4TkTX0RZ7LRUsFAF59cQ[Table_Main] 宏观研究|全球市场专题 2026 年 3 月 24 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 多国央行暂缓降息，股市进一步承压 ——全球市场周报 2026 年 3 月 14 日至 3 月 20 日，全球金融市场步入了一个极具动荡的 深度调整期。这一周的市场被地缘冲突和多国央行议息会议所主导，特 别是中东局势的全面升级，霍尔木兹海峡这一全球石油和液化天然气 （LNG）的咽喉要道实际上已处于关闭状态。本周英国央行、欧洲央行、 日本央行和美联储等多国央行均维持利率不变，投资者不得不面对一个 被动的局面，一方面，能源成本的激增正在侵蚀企业的利润并抑制消费 支出；另一方面，短期内迅速恶化的通胀预期使得美联储等主要央行难 以采取有效手段来对冲经济放缓的风险，全球金融体系的风险进一步暴 露。这促使资金从成长型资产转向防御性标的。霍尔木兹海峡持续断行 凸显了中东冲突的严重性，而这直接引发了自 1970 年代以来最严重的 能源断供风险。与 1973 年美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing energy vulnerability of countries in the context of geopolitical conflicts and the need for a resilient energy system to withstand uncertainties [2]. Group 1: Energy Vulnerability Assessment - Energy vulnerability should be assessed through three dimensions: import dependency, source concentration, and transportation path reliance [3]. - Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate was only 12.6% in 2022, with fossil fuels making up 80.8% of its energy mix, leading to high external dependency [3]. - Germany's reliance on Russia for energy was significant before the Ukraine conflict, with 55% of its natural gas and 35% of its oil sourced from Russia [8]. - Transportation path reliance is critical, as exemplified by the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about 25% of global maritime oil trade [10]. - Countries with high import dependency, source concentration, and transportation reliance, like Japan and South Korea, face severe supply uncertainties during conflicts [12]. - Mid-risk countries, such as China and India, have diversified sources but still face significant external dependencies [12]. - Low-risk countries, like the U.S. and Middle Eastern resource-rich nations, can ensure energy security and benefit from energy exports during crises [13]. - The essence of energy vulnerability lies in structural dependencies rather than isolated metrics [14]. Group 2: Changes in Energy Systems - Geopolitical turmoil leads to a phased adjustment in energy policies: short-term supply assurance, mid-term diversification, and long-term restructuring [16]. - In the short term, countries prioritize energy supply stability, as seen in Europe’s response to the Ukraine conflict, which included reviving coal power and extending nuclear power lifespans [17]. - Mid-term strategies focus on diversifying energy sources to reduce systemic risks, with the EU increasing LNG imports from 22% to over 40% between 2021 and 2023 [20]. - Long-term restructuring aims to redefine the roles of renewable energy and nuclear power, emphasizing controllability over low carbon emissions [22]. - The shift in energy policy reflects a move towards ensuring stable and controllable energy supplies in uncertain environments [22]. Group 3: Power Generation Types - The energy generation landscape is categorized into three types based on stability and controllability: high stability/high controllability (e.g., U.S. natural gas), medium stability/strong controllability (e.g., nuclear power), and low stability/strong controllability (e.g., wind and solar) [28]. - Countries with favorable geographic conditions, like Austria, rely heavily on hydropower, which offers high utilization hours and local resource dependence [30]. - Nuclear power is increasingly viewed as a universal solution for countries lacking resource endowments, with nations like France maintaining a nuclear share above 60% [31]. - Wind and solar power are seen as supplementary sources, with offshore wind in regions like the UK approaching stable baseload generation [35]. - The current energy landscape indicates a preference for stable energy sources like gas, coal, hydropower, and nuclear, while solar and wind are important complements [36].