| 略 | | 投资策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_MainInfo] 全 A | 净利边际改善，价格和政策有支撑的领域占优 | | 研 | | ——A 股市场 2025 年一季报业绩综述 | | 究 | 分析师： 宋亦威 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | | | 宋亦威 | 投资要点： | | | 022-23861608 |  2025Q1 全 A 单季营收同比增速较 2024Q4 出现回落，而单季归母净利 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 同比增速由负转正显著改善。具体而言，2025Q1 全 单季营收和净利 A | | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | | | | | 同比增速分别为-0.2%/3.7%，前者较 2024Q4 回落 1.7 个百分点，后者 | | | 022-23839070 SAC No:S1150520110001 | 较 2024Q4 回升 17.5 个百分点。 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250506 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 1.13%，深证成指涨跌幅为 1.84%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 1.97%。 申万一级行业表现：计算机、通信、综合在行业涨跌幅榜居前；石油石 化、煤炭、农林牧渔在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，稀土、稀土永磁、连板概念表现相对较好； 银行、医药商业、富时罗素概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 资料来源： wind 、粤开证券研究院 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 物来顺应 ——策略周报 0505 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：— ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined. In terms of size style, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter of 2025Q1 turned significantly positive from negative. In terms of major sectors, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led in 2025Q1, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. In terms of industries, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth [3][19][21]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [3][33]. - Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment. In the cyclical sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Guocheng, Huayou, and Guangda. In the consumer sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as Zhongchongzhuan 2, Xinruzhuan, and Baolong. In the growth sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Weice, Haopeng, Guoli, and Weil [3][7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025Q1 Performance Growth Convertible Bond Recommendations - Among the existing 472 convertible bonds, 372 achieved profitability in the single quarter of 2025Q1. After excluding those with a balance of less than 300 million yuan and a remaining term of less than 1 year, 109 convertible bonds remain. Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment based on factors such as the sustainability of the company's high performance growth and the current price and conversion premium rate of the convertible bonds [6]. - **Cyclical Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds with mineral resource advantages such as Guocheng and Huayou, Guangda with a positive business trend, Dongcai, Dinglong, Anji, and Zhengfan that benefit from the domestic substitution of semiconductor materials, Keli and Bo 23 that benefit from the accelerated development of the robot and AI industries, and Polai that benefits from the recovery of consumer demand and domestic substitution [7]. - **Consumer Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, including Muyuan, Juxing, Wenshi, Xiwangzhuan 2, and Hefeng. Also recommended are Zhongchongzhuan 2, the leading pet food company, Xinruzhuan, the leading regional dairy company, and Baolong, an automobile parts manufacturer [13]. - **Growth Sector**: It is recommended to overweight Weice, the leading domestic third-party integrated circuit testing service provider, Haopeng, a consumer battery manufacturer, Guoli, an electronic vacuum device manufacturer, and Weil, the global CIS leader [15]. 2. All A: Technology and Domestic Demand Lead, Midstream Cycle Warms Up - **Overall A-share Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined [19]. - **Size Style Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter turned significantly positive from negative, while the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of SSE 50 slightly turned negative from positive [20]. - **Sector Performance**: In 2025Q1, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. The revenue growth rate of the growth sector led among all sectors [21][23]. - **Industry Performance**: In 2025Q1, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth. In terms of ROE and other aspects, the ROE levels of most downstream cyclical and consumer sectors declined, the gross profit margins of the optional consumer sector generally declined, and the net profit margins of the midstream cyclical sector generally recovered. The top 30 sub-industries in terms of single-quarter profit growth rate in 2025Q1 were mainly concentrated in the electronics, computer, and media industries [25][28][32]. 3. Convertible Bonds: Narrowing Negative Profit Growth, Declining Revenue Growth Rate - As of May 5, 2025, the existing 472 convertible bonds covered 27 out of 30 CITIC first-level industries, and 92% of the underlying stocks of the convertible bonds had a market value of less than 3 billion yuan. In terms of size style, the issuers of convertible bonds were generally closer to small and medium-cap stocks [33]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [33].

2025 年一季报和 2024 年报有哪些看点？20250505 摘要 • 2025 年一季度全 A 股营收和净利润同比增速显著改善，非金融、石油石 化板块营收率先转正，全 A 股整体净利润同比增速为 3.56%，较 2024 年 回升 5.91 个百分点，显示市场预期与上市公司业绩同步向好。 • 创业板成为 A 股业绩增长的重要驱动力，营收和归母净利润增速均领先于 主板和科创板。同时，中小盘股（如中证 1,000、中证 2000）受益于低 基数，业绩弹性较大，一季度业绩增速反超沪深 300。 • 全 A 及全 A 非金融的 ROE 虽仍下行，但幅度趋缓。杜邦拆解显示，销售 净利率小幅回升是支撑，资产周转率下降是主要拖累。全 A 非金融经营现 金流量净额占营收比例持续提升，自由现金流占营收比例创 2008 年以来 新高，表明企业现金流状况显著改善。 • TMT 行业和中游材料是全 A 级别净利润增长的重要贡献者，中游材料以 33.85%的归母净利润同比增速排名第一，TMT 行业以 19%的增速紧随其 后。中游材料和中游制造的边际改善最为显著。 • 2025 年一季度，计算机、农林牧渔、钢铁、建筑材料和有色金属 ...

上交所融资余额报9022.97亿元，较前一交易日减少81.79亿元；深交所融资余额报8683.58亿元，较前一 交易日减少72.87亿元；两市合计17706.55亿元，较前一交易日减少154.65亿元，融资交易额2112.17亿 元，占A股成交额18.06%，其中融资买入额978.76亿元，融资偿还额1133.41亿元，交易活跃度上升 20.61%。 融资最新持仓情况 e公司数据统计显示，截至4月30日，融资持仓市值前五行业为电子、非银金融、计算机、医药生物、机 械设备，占持仓总市值51.75%。 持仓市值较20个交易日前增加幅度前2的行业为农林牧渔、综合，增加幅度分别为4.94%、0.15%。 持仓市值较20个交易日前减少幅度前3的行业为通信、传媒、家用电器，减少幅度分别为14.1%、 12.51%、10.06%。 行业流向 个股明细 从连续买卖来看，黑猫股份（002068）、汉得信息（300170）、常山药业（300255）获融资连续净买入 天数居前，分别为9天、8天、8天，期间净买入额分别为1.16亿元、2.33亿元、0.36亿元，期间增持幅度 分别为47.21%、19.64%、2.88%。 玉龙股份（ ...

中泰证券研报指出，红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值。银行股红利属性凸显，建议积极关注银行股 的投资价值，关注大行、招行和优质城农商行。 NO.3 中信建投：5月市场或维持震荡格局，短期风险偏好继续边际改善 NO.1 中金：A股节后有望迎来"开门红" 5月6日，中金公司（601995）研报认为，一季度A股上市企业业绩边际改善，关税预期在小长假期间略 显和缓，港股美股在A股休市期间表现较好，国内外环境对A股整体影响偏积极，在此背景下A股节后 有望迎来"开门红"。配置层面，结合关税影响和行业景气度，建议考虑以下思路：1）景气回升并且受 关税影响不大的领域，例如DeepSeek突破加速AI产业发展，AI产业链中的云计算、算力等基础设施环 节，再到机器人、智能驾驶等应用环节，仍是重要主线。此外，部分对美敞口不高的出口链，如工程机 械、电网设备、商用车等也值得关注。2）现金流优质、与外需关联度不高的红利板块，例如水电、电 信运营商、食品饮料等行业的龙头公司。 NO.2 中泰证券（600918）：红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值 ｜2025年5月6日 星期二｜ 中信建投（601066）证券研报认为，上周全球市场避险情绪降温 ...

策略研究 2025Q1/2024Q4/2024Q3 全部 A 股归母净利润累计同比分别为 3.5%/-3%/- 0.6%，剔除金融后为 4.2%/-13%/-7.3%；整体来看，年内外需疲弱可能进一步 拖累价格水平，PPI 持续低位运行的同时使净利润承压更大。按利润表拆分归 母净利润，25Q1 全 A 盈利回升主因是毛利率回升叠加费用率下降：①25Q1 全 A 营业收入单季同比增速-0.4%，较 24Q4 1.3%小幅回落；②毛利率视角，25Q1 单季毛利率较 24Q4 回升；③从三项费用来看，25Q1 单季三费费率较 24Q4 下 降，略低于 24Q1，主因管理费用率下降。 2025Q1 ROE（TTM）回落至 7.8%，受资产周转率持续下行拖累。 ①2025Q1/2024Q4/2024Q3 全部 A 股 ROE（TTM，整体法，下同）为 7.8%/7.9%/8.1%，剔除金融后为 6.7%/6.7%/7.2%。②杜邦拆解 ROE，净利率回 升，负债率抬升，周转率下降。25Q1 全部 A 股净利率（TTM）较 24Q4 小幅 回升，2025Q1/2024Q4/2024Q3 为 7.9%/7.8%/8%；资产 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略专题 知往鉴今系列 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 大类资产复盘笔记（202504） 1）大类资产总览：4 月大类资产普遍历经风险的集中释放，A 股超跌修复， 债市走牛，商品分化、黄金走强，全球股指涨跌不一。2）A 股：4 月主要宽 基指数均收跌，成长、周期领跌，仅稳定风格收涨，美容护理、农林牧渔行 业领涨；4 月关税落地、中方反制，宽基指数企稳修复，走出 V 字底，期间 与中方反制相关的农业板块以及资金避险的稳定板块相对抗跌。3）债券：4 月债市走牛，收益率打破一季度上行趋势、扭头下行，长端利率下行幅度更 大，期限利差收窄，利率曲线趋于平坦；存单利率与 10 年期国债利率继续 倒挂；信用利差震荡上行。4）商品：4 月商品多数走弱，原油大跌，黄金继 续走牛，美元信用下行叠加资金避险需求上行，comex 黄金 4 月 21 日突破 3400 报 3411 美元/盎司。5）海外权益：全球股指涨跌不一，美股整体走弱、 欧股、亚太分化；欧股中德国 DAX30 指数收涨；亚太股指中仅台湾加权指数、 恒生指数以及 A 股宽基指数收跌。6）美债：流动性踩踏促使美债利率一度 走高，10 ...

⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 7 6 5 4 3 2 l 0 -1 -2 -3 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ■成交金额（合计/亿元) •换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 2 2017 23 20 32 - 322 03-23 Ox.O> Ox 02-05- 0:51 03:57:3 Ox 10 Ox 1,0 01-05 03-2-2 ","s 01:10 01:20 ing St 01-02 01-15 01:23 ar 2 o 25 O3, Ja fift 图1：北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.04.30) 北交所日报 2 □国银河证券|CGS 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.04.30) 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表 ...