021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 9 月 4 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：9月3日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 1596.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

每经AI快讯，大同证券9月4日发布研报称，给予山煤国际（600546.SH）谨慎推荐评级。评级理由主要 包括：1）上半年煤炭生产增产不增销，煤炭贸易量有所压缩；2）公司进一步压降成本，经营活动现金 流净额环比向好；3）积极拓展市场，增强经营管控能力。风险提示：国际环境不确定性增强，煤炭需 求不及预期。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——AI内容强制标识"首周"实测：抖音、小红书、微博自动识别"失灵"，AI应 用文本漏标，视频"会员可去水印" （记者 王晓波） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal production has decreased temporarily, but the reduction is not sustainable and is expected to resume production soon; the overall market sentiment is cooling, and prices are under pressure [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices were generally weak and volatile, and the weakness continued at night. The 09 contract entered the delivery month. With weak buying and delivery intentions, the futures price changed from premium to flat or even discount, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources at some coal mines had weak transactions, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, coke enterprises in Hebei started the 8th round of price increase, but mainstream steel mills had no response, while some regional steel mills planned price cuts, and the market entered a game period [3] Supply Side - This week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi concentrated on shutdown and maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines and the cancellation of night shifts in some areas led to a significant decline in production. However, since most coal mines had a short shutdown time, many coal mines resumed production on September 4, and it is expected that the coking coal production in the main producing areas will recover rapidly next week [3] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills has remained above 60%, and the willingness for self - reduction is low. During the military parade, there was an expectation of production reduction for blast furnaces of steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei. From the survey, the production - limiting period was mainly from August 31 to September 3, with a production - limiting range of about 40%, significantly lower than the previous similar major events. The production - limited steel mills are expected to resume production one after another after the 4th [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：国内矿山受生产核查、矿端事故扰动影响，供应小幅收缩。炼焦煤市场震荡，部分矿点出 货不畅，有所累库，高价煤种开始回调，竞拍市场也成交乏力，线上竞拍流拍现象增多，且成交降价比 例增多，市场交易氛围有所转差；中性 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差-64；现货贴水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦炭价格走势暂不明朗，市场仍以观望为主，下游焦企对原料煤采 ...

Group 1: Active Equity Funds - The issuance of active equity fund products has increased significantly, with some products raising over 5 billion yuan in a single day [1] - The招商均衡优选混合基金 reached its fundraising cap of 5 billion yuan on its first day of sale, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The overall trend shows a steady rise in both the number and scale of new active equity fund products due to the recovery of the A-share market [1] Group 2: Life Insurance Industry - A total of 73 life insurance companies reported a combined net profit of 185.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 25% [1] - Among these companies, 52 reported profits totaling 190.1 billion yuan, while 21 companies incurred losses amounting to 4.3 billion yuan [1] - The recovery in net profit is attributed to optimized business structures, cost reduction measures, and improved investment returns [1] Group 3: R&D Investment in A-shares - A-shares listed companies invested over 810 billion yuan in R&D in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.27% [2] - The overall R&D intensity across the market was 2.33%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year [2] - Notably, companies in strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing exhibited higher R&D intensities, surpassing the overall average by 3.29 and 4.44 percentage points, respectively [2] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Equipment Orders - Orders for solid-state battery production equipment surged, with major companies reporting new and existing orders exceeding 30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70% to 80% [3] - The growth in orders is driven by advancements in solid-state battery technology and plans from several automakers to adopt this technology by 2027 [3] - The industry is expected to continue improving as pilot production lines are established and lithium battery production cycles are restarted [3] Group 5: Paper Industry Price Increases - Major paper manufacturers have announced price increases for certain products due to rising raw material costs, indicating a new wave of price adjustments in the domestic paper industry [4][5] - The price hikes are part of a broader trend, with multiple rounds of increases occurring since August [4][5] - The industry is entering a traditional peak season, and the combination of price increases and production halts is expected to sustain upward price momentum [4][5] Group 6: E-commerce and Discount Supermarkets - Several e-commerce giants are expanding their presence in the offline discount supermarket sector, viewing it as a new growth opportunity [4][5] - Companies like JD Group and Meituan are actively opening discount stores, while Alibaba's Hema is rebranding its discount line to focus on cost-effectiveness [4][5] Group 7: Global Smartwatch Market - Global smartwatch shipments grew by 8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the first recovery after five consecutive quarters of decline [5] - Huawei surpassed Apple in smartwatch shipments for the first time, becoming the global leader in this segment [5] - The growth is largely attributed to rising consumer demand, particularly in the Chinese market, driven by brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Little Genius [5] Group 8: Steel Market Outlook - Current steel prices remain at mid-low levels for the year, but there are expectations for a trend of price increases in the spot market as the construction season begins [5] - Factors such as macroeconomic support, recovering demand, and tightening supply are contributing to a positive outlook for steel prices [5] Group 9: Data Element Market Development - The establishment of data groups is accelerating in China, with nearly 500 digital technology companies formed by central enterprises [6] - The market is transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality development, focusing on leveraging data for industrial transformation and new productivity [6] Group 10: Corporate Actions - ConocoPhillips plans to lay off 20% to 25% of its workforce as part of a resource optimization strategy [6] - XGIMI is considering an H-share listing primarily for overseas branding purposes, with discussions still in the early stages [6] - Dongyangguang announced the pledge of 10 million shares, representing 1.62% of its holdings, with a total of 542 million shares pledged [6][9] - Zhongcheng Co. intends to issue shares to acquire 100% of Jiangsu Clean Energy for 151 million yuan, which will enhance its financial metrics post-transaction [10] - Fangda Carbon plans to pay 51.93 million yuan in back taxes, which is expected to reduce its net profit for 2025 by the same amount [11] - Changqing Technology is planning to issue convertible bonds worth up to 800 million yuan for a new materials production project [12]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing significant profit declines, with 23 out of 25 listed coal companies reporting revenue drops and all 25 showing negative net profit growth in the first half of 2025, indicating a severe contraction in industry profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total net profit of 25 coal companies was 554.72 billion yuan, down nearly 250 billion yuan from 808.11 billion yuan in the same period last year, and a decrease of almost 500 billion yuan compared to 1,057.54 billion yuan in 2023 [1][2]. - The top four coal companies, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, collectively earned over 100 billion yuan less than in the first half of 2024 [1]. - China Shenhua maintained the highest revenue at 1,381.09 billion yuan, down 18.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 246.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.03% [2]. Price Decline Factors - The decline in coal prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a 10.9% drop in sales volume and a 12.9% decrease in average selling prices for coal, leading to a significant reduction in sales revenue [3]. - The average selling price of coal for Shaanxi Coal was 439.67 yuan/ton, down 23.81% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy reported a drop of 114 yuan/ton in its comprehensive sales price [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply remains high, with a production increase of 5.4% year-on-year, while demand is weak, leading to a surplus in the market [4]. - The price of thermal coal has seen significant declines, with the NCEI index showing a 24 yuan/ton decrease in long-term contract prices compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Profitability Trends - The number of coal companies with profits exceeding 10 billion yuan has halved, dropping from 15 to 8, with several companies experiencing profit declines exceeding 80% [5]. - The number of loss-making companies increased from 1 to 5, with the most significant loss reported by Anyuan Coal at 290 million yuan [5]. Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, there are optimistic forecasts for coal prices in the latter half of the year, with expectations of improved demand during seasonal peaks [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that while the supply side may see marginal contractions, the demand side remains resilient, potentially alleviating downward pressure on coal prices [8].

| 浮法平板玻璃(4.8/5mm) | 直 | 1190.8 | -25.4 | -2.1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 七、农产品(主要用于加工) | | | | | | 稻米(粳稻米) | 直 | 4037.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 小麦(国标三等) | 를 | 2420.7 | -4.9 | -0.2 | | 玉米(黄玉米二等) | 直 | 2300.9 | -16.8 | -0.7 | | 棉花(皮棉,白棉三级) | 度 | 14756.3 | 141.9 | 1.0 | | 生猪(外三元) | 千克 | 13.7 | -0.1 | -0.7 | | 大豆(黄豆) | 度 | 4422.7 | -20.4 | -0.5 | | (%3% (粗蛋白含量 = 43%) | 世 | 3051.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | | 花生(油料花生米) | 世 | 7564.3 | -2.4 | 0.0 | | 八、农业生产资料 | | | | | | 尿素(中小颗粒) | 臣 | 1759.9 | -6.3 | -0.4 | | 复合肥(硫酸钾复合肥,氮磷钾含 ...

（原标题：老树发新芽？美煤巨头预言：美国电力紧缺 煤炭要翻身了！） 但能源数据分析公司McCloskey by Opis的数据分析主管Andy Blumenfeld指出，要实现2.5亿吨的需求增 长，前提是所有燃煤电厂的产能都能提升至2008年全球金融危机前的历史水平，而这一前提本身就不具 备现实可能性。 近年来，由于公用事业公司逐渐弃用煤炭这一污染最严重的化石燃料，美国煤炭消费量持续下滑。但特 朗普推行的支持煤炭、反对可再生能源的政策已产生实际影响，其中就包括阻止了密歇根州一座使用 Peabody煤炭的电厂的关闭计划。美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据显示，今年美国煤炭总消费量预计为4.39 亿吨，虽较去年增长6.7%，但与2007年11.3亿吨的峰值相比仍相去甚远。 "Peabody认为，美国现有燃煤电厂蕴含着巨大的未开发潜力，"这家总部位于圣路易斯的公司的首席财 务官Mark Spurbeck在电子邮件中表示。 到2030年，美国电力需求预计将增长25%。这一增长主要由三方面因素驱动：工厂用电需求增加、家庭 电气化程度不断提高，尤其是用于人工智能(AI)的数据中心建设热潮带来的大量用电需求。与此同时， 供应 ...

记者从中国煤炭科工集团（以下简称"中国煤科"）获悉，中国煤科煤炭共性技术研究院成立大会日前在 京召开。会议全面落实国务院国资委关于强化行业共性技术研究的部署要求，系统谋划"十五五"时期煤 炭行业共性技术研究布局，加快推动行业转型升级和高质量发展。 国务院国资委科技创新局局长方磊在致辞中强调，转制院所要深刻认识高质量组建行业共性技术研究院 的重要意义，加快提升创新体系能力、共性技术服务能力和新兴产业培育能力。 方磊对煤炭共性技术研究院提出四点希望：一是强化服务国家和行业使命担当，以科技创新保障国家能 源安全；二是强化共性技术供给，加快打造煤炭行业共性技术供给高地；三是强化成果转化和产业培育 能力，为煤炭行业转型升级、培育发展新质生产力提供坚实支撑；四是不断探索新机制，吸引优秀人 才、拓宽资金渠道、优化激励政策、激发创新活力，促进行业基础共性技术高效产出。 中国煤科党委书记、董事长胡善亭谈道，煤炭共性技术研究院的成立是中国煤科强化行业共性技术研究 的新起点，更是举全行业之力、深化协同创新、共谋行业发展的新征程。共性技术研究院将充分发 挥"公益属性、共性平台、成果转化、产业培育"功能作用，全力打造煤炭共性技术产出高 ...