Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unprecedented challenges faced by global investors due to high interest rates, structural market differentiation, and the need for diversified investment strategies [1][2][3] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with the technology sector driven by AI demand showing resilience, while traditional consumer sectors are under pressure due to declining savings rates [1] - The average excess return of actively managed funds has reached 4.2 percentage points, emphasizing the value of professional investment in a complex market environment [1] - The fixed income market is undergoing a pricing mechanism reconstruction, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuating around 4.5% and credit spreads widening by 37 basis points compared to historical averages [2] - The green bond market has surpassed $2.3 trillion in size, with a compound annual growth rate of 19%, providing new options for ESG investors [2] - Gold prices have surpassed $2,500 per ounce due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, despite positive real interest rates [2] - The trading volume of digital gold certificates has increased by 240% year-on-year, enhancing the liquidity of gold to stock-levels with an average daily trading volume of $4.7 billion [2] - A dynamic balance of risk and return is necessary for cross-asset allocation, with an optimal portfolio currently consisting of 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold [3] - The correlation coefficient indicates that gold's hedging efficiency against stock assets has improved to 0.38 [3] - The application of smart rebalancing algorithms has effectively controlled the annualized volatility of portfolios within 9.2% [3] - The divergence in capital flows, such as the record net outflow of northbound funds from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, signals rational investors' reverse positioning [3] - A three-year systematic investment strategy has achieved an annualized return of 8.7%, significantly outperforming single-asset allocation strategies [3]

Financing Overview - Government debt net financing for week 33 (8/11-8/17) was 200.9 billion, and for week 34 (8/18-8/24) it was 560.7 billion, totaling 980 billion by week 33, exceeding last year's 460 billion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 8.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 67.2% as of week 33[5] - National debt net financing for week 33 was 214.6 billion, and for week 34 it was 351.9 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.6 trillion, achieving 68.4% of the annual target[6] Local Government Debt - Local government debt net financing for week 33 was -13.7 billion, while week 34 saw 208.8 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.2 trillion, surpassing last year's 2.8 trillion[8] - New general bonds issued amounted to 30.3 billion in week 33 and 9.5 billion in week 34, with a cumulative total of 575.9 billion, achieving 72.0% of the annual target[8] Special Bonds and Other Debt - New special bonds issued in week 33 were 19.0 billion, and in week 34, they surged to 239.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.5% of the annual target[12] - Special refinancing bonds issued in week 33 were 1.2 billion, and in week 34, they increased to 24.5 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[24] - City investment bonds saw net financing of -6.2 billion in week 33 and an estimated -23.5 billion in week 34, with a total balance of 10.2 trillion[29]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a dramatic reversal after a severe downturn, with significant interventions from the central bank and the Ministry of Finance stabilizing the situation [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33%, leading to widespread selling in the credit bond market as funds faced redemption pressures [1]. - Following the central bank's liquidity injection of over 770 billion yuan within two days, the overnight rate dropped from 1.50% to 1.47%, alleviating market stress [3]. - The A-share market saw a shift as investors moved from equities to bonds, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.28% as a result [3]. Group 2: Policy Interventions - The central bank conducted a 616 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, which was part of a larger liquidity support strategy [3]. - The Ministry of Finance's announcement of a 5.5 billion yuan treasury bond sale aimed to reassure the market and prevent a liquidity crisis from spreading [4]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - There was a significant increase in buying activity in the bond market, with the proportion of active buying transactions rising from 50% to 66% [6]. - Banks resumed purchasing government bonds, indicating confidence in the long-term value of the bond market, particularly at yields below 1.75% for 10-year bonds [6]. Group 4: Market Segmentation - While government bonds showed a collective rebound, the credit bond market exhibited divergence, with certain low-rated municipal bonds facing selling pressure [7]. - The 30-year government bond ETF saw a 0.28% increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment and attracting short-term investors [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the recent recovery, experts caution that the bond market remains in a "stabilization and rebalancing phase," with limited upside for long-term rates due to risk aversion [11]. - Defensive strategies are recommended for investors, focusing on shorter-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds to mitigate risks [14].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, leading to increased pressure on fund managers, while the equity market continues to reach new highs [1][2] - On August 18, the bond market saw its most turbulent day of the month, with 10-year and 30-year treasury yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1][2] - Fund managers are feeling unprecedented pressure due to declining net values of bond funds amidst rising equity fund returns, leading to low investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The recent strong performance of the equity market contrasts sharply with the weakness in the bond market, particularly in long-term bonds, while short-term bonds remain relatively stable [3] - The current adjustment in the bond market is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation impacting bond asset attractiveness [3] - A lack of investment from smaller banks and limited redemption willingness from institutional clients are contributing factors to the bond market's pressure [3] Group 3 - Fund managers are actively seeking strategies to cope with market fluctuations, maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration while focusing on shorter-term rates less affected by steepening yield curves [3]

存量市场特征 超长信用债收益回撤。本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15，下同）市场风险偏好再度切换，债市行情反转，超长信用债亦被 波及。与上周相比，存量超长信用债收益率出现回撤，2.2%-2.3%收益率的超长信用债只数明显增长。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债认购续升。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 159.7 亿，供给量基本持平上周。在新债发行利率方面，本 周超长城投新债发行利率均值上行至 2.6%，超长产业新债票面则在 2.3%附近徘徊。在近期波动率偏高的债市环境中， 超长信用新债一级定价与现券市场略有偏离，这也或是近两周该品种新债认购热度持续上升的原因。 二级成交表现 长债指数普跌。债市又一轮急跌，本周 10 年以上国债指数跌幅高达 1.64%，10 年以上 AA+信用债指数跌幅虽小于利率 长债，但绝对值也超过 0.5%。 超长信用债成交情绪萎靡。在信用债资产中，超长信用债跌势难控，品种流动性明显弱化，本周 10 年以上产业债成 交笔数已下降至不足 40 笔，最为活跃的 7-10 年产业债，成交量相比 7 月中旬也缩减近半。成交收益方面，7-10 年信 用长债收益回调幅度大于 6bp，10 年以上普信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is experiencing volatility again, reflecting the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the equity market rebounding strongly while the bond market faces pressure [1][2]. Market Performance - On August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3766.21 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.23% [3]. - In the bond market, most government bond futures declined, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.35% to 116.050 yuan, and the 10-year main contract down by 0.18% to 107.855 yuan [3]. Shift in Trading Logic - Analysts suggest that the trading logic in the bond market may have shifted from a "fundamentals + liquidity" driven approach to a "major asset allocation" logic due to changes in risk appetite [4]. - The current bond market is under pressure, with limited conditions for price increases from both asset and liability perspectives, as traditional institutional investors are finding bonds less attractive [4]. Asset Allocation Trends - There is a growing demand for mixed equity-debt products as residents seek better returns amid declining savings yields, potentially diverting funds from the bond market [9]. - The performance of pure debt assets has been weak, with money market funds outperforming pure bond funds in terms of returns and volatility [9]. Future Outlook - The "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the bond market expected to remain in a volatile state [10]. - Historical data indicates that previous stock-strong, bond-weak periods lasted longer, but the current trend has seen a reduction in duration and yield increases [10]. - Analysts believe that the bond market's pressure may have peaked, and there is potential for gradual accumulation at higher levels [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current investment strategy suggests focusing on rebound opportunities, with priority given to 25T5, 230023, and 250215 which have undergone significant adjustments [1][13] - The 10-year Guokai new and old bond yields are inverted, and 250215 is expected to become the main bond in the short term, presenting good holding odds [1][11] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond's excess value is not strong; while in the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond shows stronger performance [13][18] - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds, and if interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [3][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Individual Bond Trend Differences - On August 19, 2025, the yields of long-term bonds in the bond market oscillated stronger overall. The yield of the main bond 250210 declined more than that of the new bond 250215, and the yields of the second-new and new bonds were inverted [6] - The intraday buying power of 250210 was significantly stronger than that of 250215, possibly due to the difference in trading volume. The current 250210 - 250215 spread is around -1BP [11] 1.2 Analysis of Recent Main Bond Trends and Bond Selection Considerations - For 10-year Guokai bonds, recent main bond trends have been relatively better. The factors influencing individual bond trends include trading power and bond cost-effectiveness [13] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 250011 has a relatively weaker trend, and the influence of individual bond cost-effectiveness is relatively stronger [14] - In the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 2500005 has a stronger trend. The current 2500005 - 2500002 spread is around 6 - 7BP [18] - In the medium and short-term segment, for 3 - 5-year interest rate bonds, 240020 and 250003 can be considered for odds, and 250203 and 250208 for trading; floating-rate bonds can focus on 25 Nongfa Qingfa 09 [23] 1.3 Observation of Recent Variety Spread Trends - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds. The spread of 5-year Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has rapidly increased from around 4BP to 15BP, and the 10-year variety from around 5BP to around 12BP [34] - In the past 5 years, during each interest rate upward cycle, the spread between Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has widened significantly. If interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [34]

Investment Rating of the Report There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for July 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased month - on - month, with different trends among various bond types and institutions. The leverage ratio of the bond market decreased month - on - month due to the seasonal reduction of the repurchase bond balance [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the combined bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 173.03 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.74 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than the month - on - month increase at the end of June [1][10]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased month - on - month, while the custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) decreased. In July 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 118.91 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 0.41 trillion yuan; the custody of ICDs was 20.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.37 trillion yuan [1][10]. 2. Bond Holder Structure and Changes 2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - The custody of major bonds by various institutions in the bond market showed differentiation this month. Allocation accounts increased their custody, while trading accounts and overseas institutions decreased theirs. Specifically, policy banks, insurance institutions, and credit unions increased their holdings of major bonds across the board; commercial banks increased their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products but continued to reduce their holdings of ICDs; securities companies increased their holdings of ICDs but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products; non - legal entity products continued to increase their holdings of major credit products but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and ICDs; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of major bonds across the board [2][24]. - In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted the equity and commodity markets. Under the influence of factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, the bond market significantly corrected. Trading accounts such as securities and broad - based funds quickly took profits and sold, while allocation accounts such as commercial banks and insurance companies bought significantly, acting as a "stabilizer" for the bond market [24]. 2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - Local government bond custody continued to increase this month, and commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][26]. - Policy - financial bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - ICD custody continued to decrease this month, with commercial banks being the main sellers. The continuous decline in ICD custody was mainly due to the slowdown in issuance and relatively large maturity of existing bonds [2][26]. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [2][29]. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase this month, and non - legal entity products continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][29]. - Short - term and super - short - term financing custody turned to an increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [29]. - Non - publicly - oriented instrument custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [30]. 2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bonds - As of the end of July 2025, the holder structure of major bonds varied. For example, commercial banks were the largest holders of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds, while non - legal entity products were the largest holders of medium - term notes, short - term and super - short - term financing, and ICDs [33][34][37]. 3. Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style pledged repos was 110,279.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 11,233.91 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.81%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and 0.24 percentage points year - on - year [3][48].

Group 1: Structural Changes in Capital Markets - Global capital markets are undergoing structural changes as they approach the investment crossroads of 2025, with a focus on balancing portfolio stability and growth under the Federal Reserve's 4.25% benchmark interest rate policy [1] Group 2: Stock Market Opportunities - Intelligent manufacturing companies, represented by (9899.HK/3L8P9), are trading at a 40% premium over traditional manufacturing due to patented AI quality inspection systems [2] - In the renewable energy sector, (9899.HK/D4Q6M) has reduced sodium-ion battery production costs to 0.35 CNY/Wh, increasing the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage stations to 12.8% [2] - In the medical technology field, (9899.HK/7H3JY) received FDA breakthrough device designation for its brain-computer interface, leading to a 117% stock price increase over three months based on clinical trial data [2] - The biopharmaceutical sector's (9899.HK/5R9TX) AI drug screening platform has shortened new drug development cycles to 2.3 years, maintaining a high dynamic P/E ratio of 62 times [2] - In consumer electronics, (9899.HK/W2Z4K) achieved a yield rate of over 92% for flexible screens, securing a $3.5 billion order from a leading international manufacturer [2] - These innovation-driven stocks, including (9899.HK/A4B7C, 9899.HK/E8F3G, 9899.HK/J6K9L), form the main line of growth stock investment [2] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable in the 3.8%-4.2% range, while (9899.HK/N5M2R) issued green bonds with a coupon rate of 5.75%, achieving a subscription multiple of 3.8 times, a new high [3] - The credit bond market shows a bifurcated landscape, with investment-grade bonds (e.g., 9899.HK/P4Q8S) seeing spreads narrow to 120 basis points, while high-yield bonds (e.g., 9899.HK/T7U1V) experience a default rate of 6.2% [3] - Among convertible bonds, (9899.HK/X3Y9Z) has seen a 22% decrease in option value due to reduced volatility of the underlying stock [3] Group 4: Gold Market Attributes - Spot gold fluctuates between $1950 and $2050 per ounce, showing a clear negative correlation with the holdings of (9899.HK/2D4F6) gold ETF [4] - Amid increased volatility in digital currencies, gold's hedging properties are highlighted, with a 47% surge in average daily trading volume for gold futures when Bitcoin experiences a single-day drop exceeding 15% [4] - On the industrial application front, (9899.HK/V8B3N) has developed a nano-gold catalyst that reduces hydrogen fuel cell costs by 28%, creating new demand growth opportunities [4] Group 5: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy - A "core + satellite" allocation strategy is recommended, with 60% in basic positions like (9899.HK/C5M8Q) broad-based ETFs, 20% in high-rated corporate bonds (e.g., 9899.HK/G2H7J), 10% in gold ETFs (e.g., 9899.HK/L4P9T), and 10% in frontier technology stocks (e.g., 9899.HK/Z9X3R) [5] - When the VIX index exceeds 25, it is advisable to increase gold allocation to 15% and reduce high-valuation stocks (e.g., 9899.HK/K8M2S) [5] - Investors should seek a balance between defensive assets (e.g., 9899.HK/R3T6Y) and growth stocks (e.g., 9899.HK/U8I2O) in the current market environment [5] - Monthly evaluations of portfolio volatility are suggested, with a rebalancing mechanism activated when 30-day annualized volatility exceeds 18%, utilizing quantitative hedging tools (e.g., 9899.HK/Y7H1J) to reduce risk exposure [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The international capital market in August 2025 shows a complex and variable landscape, with stable Federal Reserve interest rate policies impacting major investment categories: stocks, bonds, and gold [1] - The Hong Kong stock market's biopharmaceutical sector continues to perform strongly, with a leading gene editing company experiencing a weekly increase of 12.3%, reaching a year-to-date high [1] - The bond market exhibits a polarized trend, with U.S. ten-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 3.2% and 3.5%, while corporate bonds show significant stratification [1] Group 2: Gold and Alternative Investments - Gold prices have surpassed $2,200 per ounce, marking a historical high, driven by central banks increasing their reserves and a gold mining company reporting a 28% increase in proven reserves, leading to a 17% surge in its stock price [2] - The alternative investment sector is witnessing new trends, with carbon credit derivatives trading volume increasing by 210% month-over-month, and a water rights trading index showing positive growth for three consecutive months [2] Group 3: Fund Flows and Asset Allocation - Cross-border ETFs have seen a record net subscription of 1.5 billion yuan in a week, while REITs products' premium rate has narrowed to 3.2% [3] - Investors are advised to focus on inflation-linked bonds that can effectively hedge against CPI fluctuations, considering three key variables: geopolitical impacts on energy prices, monetary policy divergence among major economies, and the actual productivity gains from artificial intelligence [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In response to the complex market environment, professional institutions recommend a barbell strategy, allocating 70% of funds to stable assets and 30% to high-growth sectors, while regularly conducting stress tests to ensure portfolio resilience [4]