[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 大行资金融出为何高达 5.3 万亿？ ——债市机构行为周报（7 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 如何看待当前大行 5.3 万亿的资金融出，后续 10 年会下行吗？ 跨季以来，长债横盘，资金利率、短端利率以及信用下行较为明显。7 月以来 10 年与 30 年国债到期收益率维持在 1.65%与 1.85%中枢，资金 利率 DR007 下探至 1.40%附近，隔夜降至 1.30%，信用表现同样较强。 资金转松依然是本周行情的主线，传导链为资金转松->短端下行->信用 正 Carry 提升，而其中的关键变量是大行净融出的回升，当前大行资金 融出升至 5.3 万亿元，如何理 ...

【导读】公募投研人士把脉下半年债市： 债市有望稳中向好，或呈"低利率、中波动"震荡格 局 中国基金报记者 李树超 方丽 曹雯璟 2025年上半年债市波动显著加大，十年期国债收益率在1.6%~1.9%区间宽幅震荡。中长期债 基上半年平均单位净值增长率为0.73%，创近十年半年度业绩新低。 上半年债市波动加大，下半年能否企稳？低利率时代，下半年的投资策略该如何调整？为 此，中国基金报记者采访了 招商基金固定收益投资部总监刘万锋，永赢基金绝对收益投资部 总经理助理、永赢添添悦基金经理陶毅，鹏扬基金总经理助理、固收投资总监陈钟闻，浦银 安盛基金固定收益投资部总监李羿，德邦基金固收投资总监邹舟，兴银基金固收基金经理王 深，创金合信信用红利债券基金经理张贺章 。 当前债市收益率处历史较低水平 中国基金报：上半年债市一波三折，你对上半年债市整体如何评价？为何纯债类基金业绩难 做？ 陈钟闻： 年初以来，债券利率整体呈现先上后下的态势。市场波动先后围绕两条主线展开： 一季度主要是在资金面偏紧、风险偏好压制的宏观背景下，机构行为主导中观维度资金流动 的变化，进而影响曲线定价；二季度主要是受到贸易战等外围宏观叙事的影响，结合内部货 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 固定收益定期 压缩利差还是突破关键点位？ 本周债市继续走强，但短端和信用利差压缩更为明显。跨季之后，虽然央行大 幅回笼资金，但资金依然如期宽松。R001和R007分别下降至1.36%和1.49%， DR001 甚至降至 1.31%。宽松的资金推动短端利率继续下行，1 年 AAA 存单 本周累计下行 4.0bps 至 1.61%，3 年和 5 年 AAA-二级资本债分别下行 8.6bps 和 6.4bps。但长端利率关键期限变化有限，10 年国债和 30 年国债本周累计 变化只有-0.3bps 和 0.2bps，基本上保持持平状态。 在关键期限利率下降至关键位置附近之后，市场走势表现为更多压缩各种利 差。目前 1.64%的 10 年国债利率和 1.85%的 30 年国债利率离 1.6%和 1.8% 的关键整数位和前低相去不远，市场在这个位置对活跃券表现谨慎。而更多的 是压缩各种利差：首先，压缩利率债关键期限和非关键期限利差，例如 50 年 与 30 年国债利差从 6 月 16 日的 15.6bps 下降至目前的 8.4b ...

证券研究报告 固收 细数债市"微操"策略 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 固定收益周报 报告核心观点 2025 年已行至年中，投资者对债市操作难度攀升感受越发深刻。当前债市 趋势在，但利率下行空间受限、票面低、波动区间窄、交易"内卷"加剧、 策略挖掘过度等困境。投资者重点关注换券、信用债 ETF 重仓券埋伏、压 缩利差以及一级投标博边际等"微操"策略，获取α机会，不过目前已较为 拥挤。向前看，债市方向整体略偏多、空间有限，利差压缩等"微操"行情 仍可能有一定惯性。不过长端信用利差已较低，即便还能压缩，也要考虑配 置盘缺位以及可能的波动。此外，换券操作有所失灵，上周信用债 ETF 指 数成分券的利差压缩已到极致，建议投资者适度规避甚至"反其道行之"。 策略一："逐渐失灵"的换券操作 今年以来债市投资者对新老券"换券"等小策略的关注度不断上升，交易盘不 断超前"做左侧"。历史数据统计来看，换券操作能够起到一定的增厚效果。 不过二季度以来，随着市场进入交易"内卷"阶段，换券策略的赚钱效应存在 "失灵"迹象。一方面，新券向活跃券的转换周期显著缩短；另一方面，新老 券套息空间持续收窄，市场甚至在新券上市前就提 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 周观：央行买卖国债公告落地，债市仍震荡 （2025 年第 26 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 央行 6 月买卖国债公告落地，如何看待后续流动性和债市运行空间？ ◼ A：本周（2025.6.30-2025.7.4），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.646%下行 0.5bp 至 1.641%。 周度复盘：周一（6.30），早盘受前一周周五货政委员会一季度例会中， 对货币政策的定调边际紧缩的影响，收益率有所上行。随后 6 月 PMI 公 布，环比上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%，仍位于荣枯线之下，该数据符合 市场预期，未对债市造成过多影响。尾盘市场对于月末的央行买债公告 有所期待，收益率迅速下行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 0.3bp。 周二（7.1），跨月后资金面重回宽松，早盘收益率下行。临近尾盘，公 告周五即将发行的国债缩量，7Y 国债的发行规模由上一期的 1700 亿元 下降至 1090 亿元，10Y 国债的发行规模由上一期的 1700 亿元下降至 1310 亿元，对债市构成 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] ESG 投资评级 —— 上次评级 —— 欧盟委员会提出《欧洲气候法》修订案，设定 2040 年减排目标 [Table_Industry] ESG 周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 05 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 欧盟委员会提出《欧洲气候法》修订案，设定 2040 年减排目标 [T ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the large-scale tax cuts and spending bill by the Trump administration is expected to lead to a significant increase in the supply of short-term Treasury bonds to address future fiscal deficits, potentially amounting to trillions of dollars [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the new legislation will increase the national deficit by up to $3.4 trillion from fiscal years 2025 to 2034 [3]. - The U.S. Treasury may initiate a "supply flood" of short-term bonds to manage the substantial financing needs arising from this deficit [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Concerns about oversupply in the short-term bond market have already manifested in rising yields, with one-month Treasury yields increasing significantly since the beginning of the week [1]. - The market's focus has shifted from concerns about long-term bonds to the implications of short-term bond supply and demand dynamics [5]. Group 3: Government Strategy - Issuing short-term bonds is seen as a cost-effective choice for the government, as the current yields on one-year and shorter bonds are over 4%, yet still lower than the nearly 4.35% yield on ten-year bonds [4]. - The current administration, including President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, has expressed a preference for short-term debt issuance over long-term bonds [4]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) suggests that short-term bonds should not exceed 20% of total outstanding debt, but estimates indicate this could rise to 25% to accommodate the new deficit [5]. - There is a substantial demand for front-end debt, supported by approximately $7 trillion in money market funds, which is expected to absorb the increased supply of short-term bonds [5][6].

Group 1 - The UK 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 4.554%, with a total rise of 5.0 basis points for the week [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 5.343%, accumulating a weekly increase of 7.1 basis points [1] - The 50-year UK bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 4.689%, with a total rise of 7.2 basis points for the week [1] Group 2 - On July 1, the US stock market saw the 10-year yield drop to 4.417% before rebounding to 4.633% at the market open on July 2 [1] - The 30-year yield fell to 5.185% on July 1 and rebounded to 5.453% on July 2 [1] - The 50-year yield dropped to 4.542% on July 1 and then increased to 4.817% on July 2 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in German government bond yields, highlighting the movements in 10-year, 2-year, and 30-year bonds during the week of July 4, with specific attention to the impact of the U.S. non-farm payroll report on these yields [1]. Summary by Category 10-Year Government Bonds - The yield on German 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.607%, with a cumulative increase of 1.5 basis points for the week [1]. - The yield had previously dropped to 2.542% before rebounding to 2.675% on July 2 [1]. 2-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 2-year German bonds fell by 1.8 basis points to 1.816%, with an overall decline of 4.4 basis points for the week [1]. - The trading range for the 2-year bonds was between 1.875% and 1.799%, with a notable recovery following the U.S. non-farm payroll report on July 3 [1]. - The yield fluctuated below 1.860% from June 30 to July 3, but the rebound was short-lived, leading to further declines on July 4 [1]. 30-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 30-year German bonds increased by 0.9 basis points to 3.087%, with a total rise of 1.7 basis points for the week [1]. Yield Spread - The spread between 2-year and 10-year German bond yields increased by 1.174 basis points to +78.909 basis points, with a cumulative rise of 6.128 basis points for the week [1].

Demand Structure - As of Q1 2025, the total market value of publicly held U.S. Treasury securities is $26.88 trillion, with a face value of $28.45 trillion[15] - The main holders of U.S. Treasuries include overseas investors (33.5%), broad-based mutual funds (18.7%), the Federal Reserve (14.3%), households and nonprofits (10.6%), and state and local governments (6.0%)[17] Overseas Holdings - Since 1996, overseas investors have consistently held over 30% of U.S. Treasuries, but this dropped below 60% for the first time in July 2024[21] - Japan and China have historically been the largest foreign holders, but both have recently reduced their holdings, with Japan's holdings around $1.1 to $1.3 trillion and China's down to $757.2 billion[22][23] Duration Preferences - As of June 2024, foreign official institutions hold U.S. Treasuries with a weighted average maturity (WAM) of approximately 5.3 years, while private investors have a WAM of about 7.3 years[27] - Approximately 28% of overseas holdings are concentrated in the 0-2 year maturity range, with over 60% maturing within 5 years, indicating a preference for shorter durations among foreign official accounts[27] Auction Dynamics - In June 2024, domestic demand supported the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y maturities, while demand for 3Y, 7Y, and 30Y maturities declined, suggesting a shift in overseas interest towards certain mid- to long-term bonds[6] Future Demand Outlook - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBBA) is projected to increase the U.S. federal deficit significantly, with an estimated $4.1 trillion increase in debt by 2034, potentially raising net supply pressure by several trillion dollars[6] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain structurally stable but may see a retreat from overseas investors, while domestic demand will likely remain passive and stable[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., and deteriorating fiscal prospects leading to unsustainable federal debt levels[6]