台湾地区货币政策主管机构：这波抛汇的力道最主要是来自出口商。 ...

Group 1: Asian Currency Movements - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) has risen over the 30 mark against the US Dollar, increasing by 4.5%, reaching the highest level since June 2022 [3] - The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNY) has surpassed the 7.20 mark against the US Dollar for the first time since November last year, experiencing a significant increase of nearly 900 points over two trading days [3] - Other Asian currencies have also appreciated, with the South Korean Won increasing by 1.7%, the Malaysian Ringgit by 1.4%, the Singapore Dollar by 1%, and the Indonesian Rupiah by 1% [3] Group 2: Economic and Trade Developments - Trump indicated that a trade agreement is likely to be reached this week [3] - Trump explicitly stated that he would not prematurely dismiss Powell [3] - The US collected over $17 billion in tariff revenue in April, nearly double the $9.6 billion collected in March [3] - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, retracted his statement suggesting that US Treasury bonds would serve as leverage in negotiations with the US [3] - Buffett affirmed that investments in Japan align with the company's investment philosophy and stated that they would not sell Japanese stocks in the next decade [3]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has increased production, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, suggesting a downward trend in the future [1] - The US dollar has weakened across the board, while Asian currencies have strengthened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 78% compared to 22% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 37% bullish and 63% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 79%, while the Dow Jones Index shows 64% bullish and 36% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish, while the German DAX40 Index has 22% bullish and 78% bearish sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and bearish of 40%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows 67% bullish and 33% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment at 85%, while the Euro/AUD pair is more balanced with 54% bullish and 46% bearish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has 24% bullish and 76% bearish sentiment, while the GBP/JPY pair shows 43% bullish and 57% bearish [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish of 44%, while the USD/CAD pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment at 96% and only 4% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish of 45%, while the AUD/JPY pair shows 42% bullish and 58% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62%, while the NZD/USD pair is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 63% and bearish of 37%, while the USD/offshore RMB pair shows a significant bearish sentiment at 87% [4]

Group 1 - The US-China trade tensions are ongoing, with the US threatening to delist Chinese companies from US stock exchanges, which could harm the US capital market more than China in the long run [1] - The current state of the A-share market shows that the ChiNext index needs to rise approximately 6% to recover from recent losses, indicating a challenging environment for growth without strong leading stocks [3] - The offshore RMB has seen a significant rebound, with a single-day increase of over 700 points, driven by improved expectations for US-China trade negotiations and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [5] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to implement monetary easing, it could lead to a short-term upward movement in major indices, but the likelihood of replicating past market rallies is considered low due to diminishing policy effects [7] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on May 6-7 is a critical point for market expectations regarding interest rate changes, which could influence market movements significantly [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar's value, attributing the decline to global investor sentiment and the impact of Trump's economic policies rather than direct actions from major foreign holders like Japan and China [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Depreciation Factors - The US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by 9% this year, raising questions about who is selling dollars and the underlying motivations [1]. - Initial speculation pointed to Japan and China as potential culprits for the dollar's decline, but there is insufficient evidence to support this claim [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty stemming from Trump's inconsistent economic policies has led to a broad withdrawal of investors from the US market [2]. Group 2: Foreign Bond Sales - Japan has reportedly sold $20 billion worth of foreign bonds recently, but it remains unclear if this is linked to the volatility in the US bond market [2][3]. - There is no substantial evidence that hedge funds are behind the dollar's decline, as recent reports from the CFTC show no significant liquidation of leveraged positions [3][4]. - Both China and Japan lack a strong incentive to sell US bonds, as doing so would likely lead to currency appreciation and negatively impact their export markets [4]. Group 3: Global Investment Trends - A broader trend of investors seeking to distance themselves from the US market is evident, with many now viewing it as a risk asset rather than a safe haven [5][8]. - The shipping industry reflects this trend, with a significant increase in "blank sailings" to the US, indicating reduced trade activity due to tariff policies [5][8]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that as long as the trade war continues, the depreciation of the dollar is likely to persist, with ongoing reassessment of risk and return associated with dollar assets [8].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/04/30 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/29 | 4.174 | 4.479 | 3.217 | 2.496 | 3.606 | 3.162 | 0.355 | 3.321 | -0.036 | -0.029 | -0.019 | -0.023 | -0.021 | -0.018 | -0.033 | - ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index rose by 0.23% to close at 99.237, reflecting a strong performance against a basket of currencies due to easing trade tensions [1] - The White House confirmed that the 25% import tariff on automobiles will remain, but new measures will prevent the steel and aluminum tariffs from stacking on top of it [1] - The US Commerce Secretary announced that the Trump administration has reached its first trade agreement, although details regarding the involved countries were not disclosed [1] Group 2 - The US international trade deficit for March was reported at $162 billion, exceeding market expectations of $145 billion and the revised $147.8 billion from February [2] - The euro and pound weakened against the dollar, with the euro at 1.1382 and the pound at 1.3402, both lower than the previous trading day [2] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona, with notable rates of 142.29 yen, 0.8242 franc, 1.3846 dollar, and 9.6292 krona respectively [2]

在金融市场上，对美国特朗普政府政策操作的过度警惕感逐渐缓解。上周，美国股票、债券和货 币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参与者仍然没有放松紧 张情绪，认为抛售美国可能复燃。本周（4月28日开始的一周）将公布美国就业指标的结果，根 据内容，市场的平静可能会被打破。 上周的外汇市场上，4月以来持续的美元贬值趋势得到了遏制。代表美元对主要货币综合实力 的"美元指数"4月21日从约三年来的底部——97区间，恢复到了99区间。 在交易货币买卖权利的货币期权市场上，应对日元升值和美元贬值的趋势正在缓解。反映各货币 对美元买权需求和卖权需求哪个更大的"风险逆转(Risk Reversal,1个月指标)"在4月25日为-1.5% 以下。自4月3日以来，负值最小。负值越大，表明日元买权需求越大，日元升值警惕感越强。4 月11日，负值一度达到-3.5%以下，这是自2024年8月金融市场混乱以来的最大负值。 金融市场对特朗普的 猜疑没有消失（Reuters） 美国股票、债券和货币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参 与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪。美国经济是导致美国股债汇"三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a decline due to market concerns over high tariffs impacting the US economy, with a notable drop in the index by 0.46% to 99.012 [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Federal Reserve reported a manufacturing index of -35.8 for April, significantly lower than March's -16.3, contributing to the dollar's decline [2]. - Key macroeconomic data, including Q1 GDP and April non-farm payrolls, are set to be released this week, which may provide further insights into the economic situation [3]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was valued at 1.1413 USD, up from 1.1380 USD the previous day, while the British pound rose to 1.3426 USD from 1.3329 USD [3]. - The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona, with notable declines in exchange rates compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the foreign exchange market is currently in a consolidation phase, with expectations of upcoming significant economic data [2]. - The market is awaiting clearer indicators of economic deterioration before the Federal Reserve considers interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for substantial evidence rather than mere predictions [3].