现货价格及基差 品种 6月27日 6月26日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14100 13850 250 1.81% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) ES -190 245 128.95% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -345 -440 95 21.59% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 47.15 46.95 0.20 0.43% 泰铢/公斤 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 57.25 -0.25 -0.44% 57.00 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 6月27日 6月26日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -825 -845 20 2.37% 1-5价差 -22 -25 元/吨 -30 -83.33% 5-9价差 880 875 5 0.57% 基本面数据 单位 指标 前值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

工业硅周报 光伏新政提振市场，工业硅触底反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅触底反弹，主因国家发改委表示将统筹我国电 力外送、就近消纳及电网和调节能力建设等政策，持续推 进新能源高质量发展，极大地提振市场信心。供应来看， 新疆地区开工率维持7成，大厂减产进度缓慢，川滇地区 丰水期开工率小幅反弹，但增量却十分有限，供应端总体 偏弱运行；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场成交较为有限，大 厂不敢盲目提高排产，二季度排产仍充满不确定性；硅片 市场下跌幅度较大多家企业联合减产挺价；光伏电池部分 厂商已动态调整产线，并采取以销定产的灵活策略；而组 件价格整体持稳但多数厂家下调7月排产，虽有分布式项 目的补装需求但整体终端订单表现疲软，光伏供给侧改革 仍在进行中，但发改委新政极大地提振市场情绪，社会库 存降至54.2万吨主因产量逐月下降，现货市场在发改委新 政的提振下得以企稳反弹。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F030799 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂突发减产，光伏再提反内卷 根据百川盈孚，本周新疆、内蒙、宁夏分别减产 25、3、1 台，四川增开 1 台。周产量 7.49 万吨，环比-2.22%。SMM 工业 硅社会库存环比-1.7 万吨，样本工厂库存环比-0.23 万吨。新疆 大厂突发减产。部分伊犁小厂在政府补贴下有所增产。四川、 云南预期丰水期开工仍将有小幅增加。大厂生产计划将对工业 硅基本面产生较大影响。若大厂维持 48 台开炉，则工业硅单 月或去库 6 万吨。但若大厂恢复东部基地满产，则工业硅或单 月累库 3 万吨。大厂减产时间仍不明确，关注后续进展。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 现货本周成交低迷。市场传言多家企业多个基地新增复产计 划，我们暂仅考虑已复产企业的生产情况，预期 7 月排产 10.7 万吨。此水平的复产也足以带动多晶硅进入单月过剩。根据 SMM，截至 6 月 26 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+0.8 万吨。下游硅片厂对硅料压价态度明显，在硅料龙头企业联合 减产之前，预计硅料价格仍将继续下跌。但近日政策端变动较 大，周末人民日报发文再度强调"反内卷"，后续关注政策端 变化。 [★Ta工bl业 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 8.66%, and polysilicon by 5.95%, due to the positive news of photovoltaic desert control [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose. The southwest region's electricity price is decreasing, and there are plans for large - scale enterprises to resume production. The northwest region also offers electricity subsidies [7]. - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is slowing down. Organic silicon production is being cut due to zero profit, polysilicon production is reduced, and the aluminum alloy industry is in a passive de - stocking phase [7]. - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment [7]. - Next week, industrial silicon is expected to experience basis regression, and the increase in futures prices may be limited. Polysilicon's basis is expected to return to the normal range [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the range of 32000 - 34500, with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices increased this week. After the news of photovoltaic desert control on Thursday, the market began to reflect the expectation of increased demand, and prices rose significantly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply will be loose, while demand from downstream industries is weakening. The overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to slow down [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand is weak. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment. Inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly in range - bound oscillation (7600 - 8600), with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should be in short - term oscillation (32000 - 34500), with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both decreased [8]. - The price of industrial silicon increased, the spot price rose, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the basis will return next week [13]. - The futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis weakened, the spot price rose, and the basis returned to normal [17]. - This week, the production and capacity utilization rate of industrial silicon increased due to the rainy season in the southwest region and the resumption plans of large enterprises. As of June 27, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 73,500 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 50.61% [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon slightly decreased, the electricity price dropped, and the overall cost decreased due to government subsidies. Although enterprises are still in a loss state, the willingness to resume production during the rainy season has increased [27]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory slightly increased. The process of inventory reduction has been repeated, but the overall trend remains unchanged. As of June 27, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 53,234 lots, a decrease of 2386 lots; the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 571,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons [32][36]. - **Downstream Industry**: - **Organic Silicon**: The production and capacity utilization rate decreased. Enterprises chose to continue reducing production to support prices due to profit decline. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly production was 44,200 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.17%, a decrease of 1.23% [38][42]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price decreased, the inventory increased, and the passive de - stocking continued. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [50][52]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Chip**: The silicon wafer price decreased, and the battery chip price remained flat. The overall demand for polysilicon was affected, which in turn affected the demand for industrial silicon. As of June 27, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.06 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/piece; the battery chip price was 0.25 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [57][59]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost**: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon remained flat, and the price of industrial silicon decreased. Overall, the production cost remained stable, and the polysilicon production is expected to gradually decline. In May 2025, the total production of polysilicon plants in China was 97,355 tons, a decrease of 1447 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [64][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Industrial silicon - Interval operation, upstream sell - hedge on rallies; Polysilicon - Neutral [2][8] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are relatively strong, affected by the rising sentiment of coking coal and the news of production cuts by a leading northwest enterprise. However, with increasing supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited [1][2]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory, increasing supply after southwest restart, and possible decline in consumption. The market is easily affected by capital sentiment and policy disturbances [3][6]. Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7600 yuan/ton and closed at 7720 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 321342 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 27 was 53234 lots, a decrease of 29 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas on June 26 was 54.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from the previous week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 41.4 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [1]. Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures rebounded significantly, opening at 30745 yuan/ton and closing at 31715 yuan/ton, a 3.46% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 77132 lots, and the trading volume was 225035 lots [3]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, with the polysilicon inventory at 27.00 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory at 20.11GW, a 7.30% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 23600.00 tons, a decrease of 3.67%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.44GW, an increase of 4.10% [3]. Market Analysis - Silicon Wafer and Battery - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.23 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.02 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Factors to Monitor - The resumption of production and new capacity commissioning in the northwest and southwest regions [4]. - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises [4]. - Policy disturbances [4]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4]. - The operating rate of silicone enterprises [4]. - The impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - The impact of policy disturbances [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

Report Information - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the third week of June, the industrial silicon output was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. Recently, the expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and出库, dropping to 266,300 tons [4]. - The spot price remained stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The technical breakthrough and production cut news resonated, stimulating a sharp intraday rise in industrial silicon. However, the production cuts had not been implemented, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged significantly behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased marginally, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The improvement in fundamentals was limited. The production increased for four consecutive weeks, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. 2. Market News - On June 26, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,234 lots, a net decrease of 29 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in May 2025 was 53,840 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.48% [5].