1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market has not been reversed. Enterprises have insufficient willingness to cut production actively. In October, the supply was over 400,000 tons, while the demand was generally stable. The loose supply - demand situation led to a lack of inventory reduction drivers. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly lies in the cost increase in Southwest China and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive effects remains to be seen. The industrial silicon has limited strong drivers, and the price of the main contract will fluctuate under pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated, showing a pattern of strengthening first and then weakening. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The trading volume was 261,087 lots, and the open interest was 211,670 lots, with a net increase of 10,152 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The price range of 553 industrial silicon was 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and that of 421 was 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. The supply in October was over 400,000 tons, and the demand was stable. The market lacks inventory reduction drivers. The expected support in Q4 is from cost increase in Southwest China and active production cuts, but the positive effects are uncertain. The main contract price will fluctuate under pressure due to limited drivers and continuous increase in net short positions in the 2601 contract [5]. 3.2 Market News - On October 28, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 48,044 lots, a net decrease of 141 lots compared to the previous trading day. From January to September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 491,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, and the monthly average export volume was 61,500 tons. In September, the export volume decreased slightly. The export volume in August was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 7.73% [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Next week, in the industrial silicon market, production cuts in the southwest and increased production in the northwest will occur simultaneously; there is high uncertainty in the demand for polysilicon, while the demand for organosilicon and aluminum alloy is relatively stable; costs provide support for prices at the lower end, but high inventories limit the upside potential of prices. Industrial silicon continued to fluctuate at the bottom today. If production capacity continues to decline, industrial silicon prices are expected to find support. However, the short - term main contract is near the high - price level, so it is recommended to short on rallies [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 211,670 hands, up 10,152 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 55,846 hands, down 7,555 hands; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 48,044 hands, down 141 hands; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly industrial silicon exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organosilicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organosilicon DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity exceeded that of thermal power for the first time, marking that the energy revolution has entered a critical stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations represented by wind and solar energy have become the key forces in achieving the "dual - carbon" goal. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, leading to an increase in manufacturers' production costs. Some enterprises with exhausted raw materials have chosen to stop production. As November approaches, the scale of production cuts during the dry season is expected to further expand. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers are actively increasing production, with an increase in the number of furnaces in operation and continuous release of production capacity [2] 3.7 Demand Analysis - In the organosilicon segment, inventories are lower than the historical average. The production profit of organosilicon has slightly rebounded but remains in the loss range, providing some rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. Most organosilicon manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and many are in maintenance or plan to enter maintenance, which maintains the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, inventories are as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average. The prices of silicon wafers are flat, and the prices of solar cells are falling, with poor downstream transmission. Leading enterprises have maintenance plans, and there is a risk of weakening demand support for industrial silicon in the future. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable, with high demand for industrial silicon, showing relatively stable demand, but the marginal effect on industrial silicon prices is limited [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are average, with the futures market maintaining a volatile trend. Starting from the end of October, the supply - demand situation may improve. In the long - term, if there are policy incentives, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the current supply - demand fundamentals are average with high inventory pressure. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips as policies are expected to be introduced [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,950 yuan/ton and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.17)% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 201,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,185 lots, a change of -142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. The silicon price in Tianjin increased slightly, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained unchanged [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market transaction price range was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the mainstream transaction concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. The market average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the center of the transaction price moved down slightly [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable. In October, the start - up in the Northwest increased, and the Southwest has not entered the dry season and has not stopped production, resulting in a large increase in inventory. Currently, the fundamentals are average, and the futures market maintains a volatile trend. Starting from the end of October, the Southwest will start to reduce production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is advisable to go long on the dry - season contracts on dips. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 52,510 yuan/ton and closing at 54,500 yuan/ton, a change of 3.82% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,877 lots (81,555 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 238,898 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (a change of 1.98% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a change of 6.70% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500.00 tons (a change of -4.84% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a change of 2.65% month - on - month) [4]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with high overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The sharp rise in the futures market on that day was mainly affected by downstream acceptance of warehouse receipts. Currently, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. The 11 main contract fluctuates between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.36 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.04 yuan/piece). The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the output in November is expected to decline [6]. - For battery cells, the prices of high - efficiency PERC182, PERC210, TopconM10, Topcon G12, Topcon210RN, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells remained stable [6]. - For components, the mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm, PERC210mm, N - type 182mm, and N - type 210mm remained unchanged [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Overall, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand for industrial silicon remains unchanged, and silicon prices may run weakly. On the supply side, the resumption of production in Northwest China has slowed down, and the weekly production increase of industrial silicon has decreased. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon and organic silicon has declined. On the inventory side, the reduction of warehouse receipts has led to an overall reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SI2511 closed at 45793 with a -0.29% change and a position of 8000. SI2512 closed at 8980 with a -0.39% change and a position of 122104. SI2601 closed at 8965 with a -0.17% change and a position of 201518. SI2602 closed at 8970 with a -0.06% change and a position of 26702. SI2603 closed at 8980 with a 0.22% change and a position of 11082 [1]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of 553 (non-oxygenated) was 9300 with no change, 553 (hydrogenated) was 9350 with no change, 421 was 9650 with no change, 441 was 9600 with a 200 increase, and 3303 was 10500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 9950 with no change, and 553 (oxygenated) was 9250. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9800 with no change, and 553 (hydrogenated) was 9600. In Sichuan, 421 was 9750 with no change [1]. Price Difference - The difference between SI2511 and SI2512 was -375 with a 5 increase. The difference between SI2512 and SI2601 was 15 with a -15 decrease. The difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygenated spot was 300 with no change. The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 385 with a -45 decrease [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt capacity was 280,000 tons, with a decrease from 39677 to 39297. Many warehouses had no change in warehouse receipts, while some had decreases, such as -100 in Zhongchu Lutong (No. 1 Sijingzhilu), -6 in Waiyun Tianjin Binhai, -7 in Jianfa Tianjin Binhai, -56 in Qingdao Port Logistics, -3 in Jianfa Gaoke (Waiyun Longquanyi), -7 in Xiangyu Sichuan Shanghai, -5 in Zhongchu Wuxi, -14 in Jianfa Dongguan [1]. Industry Dynamics - The contract dispute between Xinjiang Transformer Factory of TBEA Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qibu Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Zhongbu Hesheng Brick Industry Co., Ltd. will be heard in Changji People's Court on November 4, 2025, with the case number "(2025) Xin 2301 Min Chu 9566" [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report maintains an optimistic view of the future of the black sector. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually easing macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term. For specific varieties, each has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as Sino - US negotiations and overseas macro - environment changes [1][4][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (1.772%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 128,819 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.953001 million lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3140 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (1.507%). The registered warehouse receipts were 104,667 tons, a decrease of 2398 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.48273 million lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated strongly. Sino - US relations were moderately eased, and the results of the trade negotiations needed to be focused on. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, the demand improved marginally, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills declined significantly, and the supply - side pressure was reduced. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remained unchanged, but the real demand was still weak in the short term [1]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.01% (+15.50). The position changed by - 6796 lots to 558,800 lots. The weighted position was 944,200 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.62% [3]. Strategy View - The market sentiment improved, and the iron ore futures rebounded at the technical support level. The overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase, and the recent arrival volume was at a low level. The daily average pig iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The macro - environment had a certain positive impact, and the iron ore price fluctuated [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.52% to close at 5802 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.40% to close at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures. The prices of both were in the shock range and needed to pay attention to the support level and the direction selection near the trend line [7]. Strategy View - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee had positive statements, but there was no content exceeding market expectations. It was necessary to pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the black sector were worrying due to high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" in steel mills. The report was still not pessimistic about the black sector, and it was more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were likely to follow the black sector's trend [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The weighted position increased by 7556 lots to 435,130 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,500 yuan/ton, up 4.20% (+2195). The weighted position increased by 19,404 lots to 251,023 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis was - 1520 yuan/ton [11][14]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon was slightly up. The supply pressure continued, and the demand support weakened. The cost provided some support, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The polysilicon futures rose due to downstream buying and news rumors. The supply pressure might be alleviated marginally, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the implementation of news and control risks [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1095 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+3). The prices in North China and Central China decreased. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million cases, up 2.3374 million cases (3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 36,011 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 73,350 lots. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+17). The price in Shahe increased. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (3.64%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10,679 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 11,314 lots [17][19]. Strategy View - The glass market mainly traded low - price goods, and the demand recovery was slow. The raw material soda ash price provided support, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash supply was stable, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream demand was mainly low - price rigid demand. The soda ash price was expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to the start - up of equipment and downstream procurement [18][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations, while the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading has sparked enthusiasm for going long on treasury bond futures [5][18][21]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of some products such as soybeans and sugar are affected by factors like trade relations and supply - demand changes, showing different trends [7][26][28]. - The steel market is showing a trend of continued strengthening, while the double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement [9][59][61]. - The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors, and is expected to continue to adjust [11][69][71]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the stock index opened higher and closed higher. All major indices and futures contracts rose. The market is expected to continue its upward trend with fluctuations. Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and buying call options on the Sci - tech Innovation 50, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, and ChiNext at low prices [18][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Monday, treasury bond futures opened lower but closed higher. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to continue the "moderately loose" monetary policy. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, and consider flattening the yield curve or shorting the inter - delivery spread for arbitrage [21][22][24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven up the US soybean price, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal has also risen, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26][27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to increased production in major producing areas. In China, the suspension of pre - mixed powder and syrup imports has a short - term bullish impact. The trading strategy includes short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, shorting US raw sugar and going long on domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [28][29][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The short - term disk is expected to oscillate slightly weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and wait for the price to stabilize on dips before going long. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [32][33][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded, but the production is expected to be high. In China, the supply of corn is increasing, and the spot price is falling. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for dips to go long on the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36][37][38]. - **Hogs**: The short - term slaughter pressure has eased, but the overall supply is still high. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is in short - term bottom - range oscillation. It is recommended to go long on the 01 - and 05 - month contracts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. - **Eggs**: The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [43][44][47]. - **Apples**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, but the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high. The price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The acquisition is at its peak, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54][57]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to continue to strengthen. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - spread position of hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [59][60][61]. - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and look for opportunities to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [61][62][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and for options [64][65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - environment has driven a rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to use the strategy of shorting after the low - valuation repair for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct short - term intraday trading [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The macro - environment has improved, and the supply is relatively tight. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - position in cross - market arbitrage, and wait and see for options [73][74][76]. - **Alumina**: There is an expectation of production cuts on the supply side, and the price is expected to rebound slightly. It is recommended to go long on the short - term price rebound for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment and fundamentals are in resonance, and the price is expected to strengthen in the medium term. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [81][82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The global trade situation has eased, and the price is in an upward - oscillation channel. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84][85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to export conditions, and sell out - of - the - money put options [87][88][93]. - **Lead**: The lead price may fall from high levels. It is recommended to go short on rallies for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93][94][95]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to maintain range - bound trading due to macro - benefits and loose supply - demand. No specific trading strategies are provided [98].

Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Industrial silicon supply increase pressures the price, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 remained unchanged. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreased by 10.47%, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 64.29%, and the basis of Xinjiang decreased by 7.76% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 1.32%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50.00%, 2601 - 2602 decreased by 0.00%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 300.00%, and 2603 - 2604 decreased by 20.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78%, Yunnan's production increased by 2.41%, and Sichuan's production decreased by 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 22.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 11.99%, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.47%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 0.58%, Sichuan's increased by 1.00%, social inventory decreased by 0.53%, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.29%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.23% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. After the sharp rise in futures, the discount is repaired, and there is a need to pay attention to the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 325.19%. The average price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased by 0.59%, and the average price of N - type 210R silicon wafers decreased by 2.16% [2]. - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 4.20%. The spread of the current month - the first consecutive contract decreased by 16.92%, the first - the second consecutive contract decreased by 61.90%, the second - the third consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, the third - the fourth consecutive contract increased by 140.00%, the fourth - the fifth consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, and the fifth - the sixth consecutive contract increased by 140.00% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production increased by 2.65%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.84% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports increased by 28.46%, exports decreased by 28.16%, and net exports decreased by 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37%, imports decreased by 17.96%, exports remained unchanged, and net exports increased by 1.96%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1.91% [2]. Report on Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level. Although there is import cost support, the market is pessimistic due to expected supply increase and weak demand. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all decreased. The prices of small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: From October 27 - November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, a week - on - week increase of 33%, and the arrival volume increased by 8.5 million cubic meters to about 53.3 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 19% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory was 284 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average log出库 volume was 6.44 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.12 million cubic meters from the previous week [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on subsequent rebounds. For glass, although the previous decline has priced in the negative factors, and the recent news has boosted the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market and close previous short positions [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37%, weekly production increased by 3.37%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05%, and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the improvement of the macro - environment and fundamentals has led to a rebound in rubber prices. In the future, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price is expected to run around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of Yunnan Guofu SCRMF, Thai standard mixed rubber, natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna, and raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged. The basis of whole milk decreased by 7.69%, the non - standard price difference decreased by 13.43%, the FOB middle price of cup rubber decreased by 100.00%, the FOB middle price of glue decreased by 100.00%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.47% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.14% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.95%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 1.06%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and in September, tire exports decreased by 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 14.41%, and in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber STR20 in Thailand increased by 1.87%, the production cost of RSS3 increased by 0.50%, the production profit of STR20 decreased by 305.56%, and the production profit of RSS3 increased by 2.83% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07%, natural rubber factory futures inventory in SHFE increased by 6.28%, and the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao bonded warehouse decreased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current supply is relatively balanced with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and the overall supply will gradually decline in November. The demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November due to the dry - season and quota production, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that the short - term market will remain range - bound, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [6]. - For polysilicon, the current supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations, and it is expected to remain in high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract rebounded slightly, closing at 8920 yuan/ton on October 24 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's output increased due to newly ignited silicon furnaces, while the start - up in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little. Yunnan had a small reduction in production under high - cost pressure, and the start - up rate is expected to decline further in November. Sichuan's start - up decreased gradually during the dry season. Overall, the output increased slightly this month and is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance will resume next week. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, with primary aluminum alloy running stably and recycled aluminum alloy restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous month and an 8% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 559000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 52305 yuan/ton on October 24 [7]. - **Supply**: Three enterprises resumed production and increased output in October, and the production is expected to increase slightly this month. According to the fourth - quarter production plans of each enterprise, some production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be gradually shut down for maintenance during the dry season in November, and the production will gradually decline from November to December [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and component and cell manufacturers have a weak willingness to purchase. Downstream purchasing enterprises are mainly waiting and watching, and no actual transactions have been made. A new round of transactions is expected to be carried out in batches next week. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a 28% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the purchasing pace of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, and 421 oxygen - passed was 9100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [10]. - **Industrial Silicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [14]. - **Polysilicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, P - type dense material was 33000 yuan/ton, and P - type cauliflower material was 30500 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [18]. - **Polysilicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17000 yuan/ton, and the premium over P - type cauliflower material was 19500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [22]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of October 24, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1140 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang silicon coal was 1700 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica stone was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [26]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shandong port Saudi petroleum coke was 1555 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from last week. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [30]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, Yunnan charcoal was 2450 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes were 12750 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [34]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 24, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.34, 1.34, 1.365, and 1.69 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. Due to weak terminal demand, second - tier and tail enterprises actively lowered prices [37]. - **Batteries**: As of October 24, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.315, 0.315, 0.285, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with decreases of 0.003, 0.003, 0.002, and 0 yuan/watt respectively from last week. Overseas market demand has declined, and export order support has weakened [41]. - **Components**: As of October 24, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and cost pressure has increased [45]. Other Related Products - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up was stable, and the price remained stable [49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20800 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last week. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable start - up, the primary aluminum sector was relatively stable, and recycled aluminum alloy was restricted by scrap aluminum supply [53].