1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is cautiously bullish, driven by both supply and demand factors. The supply is tight due to issues with mining licenses and year - end maintenance, while the demand is expected to increase as downstream enterprises may start stockpiling before the Spring Festival and the export tax - rebate policy adjustment may lead to a "non - off - season" for material manufacturers [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 6.8% year - on - year, 0.6% faster than the previous month. The social consumer goods retail总额 in December increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The export amount in December reached $357.75 billion, a record high for a single month, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% and a 0.7% increase in the growth rate compared to the previous month. Real estate investment in December decreased by 35.8% year - on - year. The CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI in December decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3%. In the US, the initial estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter showed an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.3%, far exceeding the expected 2%. The core PCE index in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production decreased slightly. Issues with mining licenses at the ore end continued to intensify, and some enterprises carried out year - end maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. As of January 23, the lithium carbonate production was 24,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.8%, a 1.5% week - on - week decline. The lithium hydroxide supply was also tight, with a production of 6,715 tons as of January 16, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons, and an enterprise operating rate of 36.99%, a 1.79% week - on - week increase [3][10][12]. 3.3 Demand Side - From January 1 to 18, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 312,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. The wholesale volume was 348,000 units, a 23% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises may start stockpiling, and the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy will promote material manufacturers to have a "non - off - season" feature, with the production of lithium iron phosphate returning to an upward trend [4][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the ore - end prices increased significantly. The African SC 5% was priced at $1,850 per ton, a $100 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $2,325 per ton, a $75 per - ton increase compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 6,500 yuan per ton, a 450 - yuan per - ton increase compared to last week. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 36,139 yuan per ton, a 3,529 - yuan decrease compared to last week. The lithium hydroxide industry profit expanded, with a profit of 40,022 yuan per ton as of January 16, a 11,047 - yuan increase compared to last week. However, the downstream lithium iron phosphate industry was still in a loss - making state, with a loss of 2,259 yuan per ton as of January 23, a 29 - yuan per - ton decrease compared to last week [4][49][54]. 3.5 Inventory - As of January 22, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 tons, a 783 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,834 tons, a 107 - ton increase compared to last week. The total inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased, with a total inventory of 29,299 tons as of January 23, a 1,487 - ton decrease compared to last week. However, the inventory of the ternary material industry increased [33][36][38]. 3.6 Market Price - As of January 23, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan per ton, a 24.2% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan per ton, an 8% increase compared to last week. Most lithium - related products' prices increased, such as lithium iron phosphate, whose storage - type price increased by 5.73% and power - type price increased by 5.35% [7][6]. 3.7 Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate futures and spot price basis was generally stable. The lithium carbonate main contract is expected to remain strong under the drive of continuous supply disturbances and resilient demand, as the supply is expected to remain tight and the downstream demand for restocking is strong [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery industries marks a significant turning point in the sector, transitioning from "universal subsidies" to "high-quality guidance" in China's new energy industry support logic [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy adjustment reflects a dual embodiment of national industrial development strategy and optimization of fiscal resource allocation, as the export tax rebate system has supported the rapid establishment of a leading global photovoltaic and lithium battery industry chain since 2013 [1] - China's global production share of photovoltaic polysilicon, battery cells, and modules exceeds 85%, with leading lithium battery companies holding nearly 70% of the global market share, indicating a shift in the environment for high export tax rebates [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The adjustment directly addresses the core issue of "internal competition externalization," where the increase in volume and decrease in price of photovoltaic products have led to a situation where domestic fiscal subsidies are used to compete in overseas markets, resulting in profit loss for companies and increased international trade friction [2] - The policy aims to cut reliance on low-price competition, forcing the industry to return to value-based competition, which is a necessary choice for building a healthy industrial ecosystem [2] Group 3: Short-term Effects - In the short term, the 2-3 month rebate window has triggered a noticeable "export rush," with some previously halted photovoltaic companies resuming production and battery companies accelerating order deliveries, leading to a potential increase in demand for upstream raw materials like lithium carbonate [2] - However, there is a risk of a phase of demand decline following the "export rush," particularly in the mid and downstream segments of the photovoltaic industry, where competition pressure may intensify due to temporary overcapacity [2] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The policy is expected to drive three structural changes in the industry: 1. The competition logic will shift from "price competition" to "capability competition," leading to the exit of smaller companies with weak cost control and technology, concentrating resources in leading firms [3] 2. The industrial layout will evolve from "product output" to "global layout," with leading companies accelerating overseas capacity establishment to mitigate trade barriers and cost pressures [3] 3. The development motivation will transition from "policy-driven" to "innovation-driven," as companies increase R&D investments in high-efficiency battery technology, energy storage applications, and green manufacturing [3] Group 5: Industry Transition - The export tax rebate policy adjustment represents a necessary "coming of age" for the new energy industry, which must now rely on core technological strength rather than short-term policy benefits to compete globally [4] - Companies should seize the transitional window to accelerate technological upgrades and global layouts, while the market should focus on the long-term value of industrial structure optimization amidst short-term fluctuations [4]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report highlights the geopolitical shifts impacting asset pricing, particularly focusing on the U.S. involvement in Greenland as a strategic move for national security and resource control [8][9] - The report indicates that the EU's response to U.S. policies is limited due to its economic dependencies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and energy [8] - The analysis suggests a structural change in global asset pricing, with a shift towards hard assets and scarce resources as the new safety net for investments [9] Fixed Income Research - The public fund's convertible bond holdings decreased by 83 billion to 3,083 billion, a decline of 2.6%, which is less than the overall market contraction of 7% [16] - The average return for convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.86%, outperforming other active fund types, indicating a strong performance in a volatile market [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term bonds, with trading activity in this segment becoming notably active [27][28] Industry and Company Insights - The aerospace industry report emphasizes the potential for commercial space ventures, particularly in rocket recovery, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The chemical industry analysis points to a tightening supply-demand situation in the potassium chloride market, with expectations for demand and prices to exceed forecasts in 2026 [3] - The real estate sector commentary reflects a downturn in 2025 but anticipates positive signals in early 2026, suggesting a potential recovery [3] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report indicates a trend of funds shifting from passive to active management, with a notable increase in the allocation to sectors like banking and military [17] - The report highlights the performance of various funds, with a median net value growth of 11.04% for top-performing convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 [18] Market Trends - The macroeconomic weekly report shows a GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with a notable slowdown in Q4 to 4.5%, but signs of recovery are emerging [11] - The report on the short-term pure bond funds indicates a reversal in asset growth, with total assets rising to 1,082.1 billion, reflecting a resilient market despite broader economic challenges [21][22]

Group 1 - Tencent and Baidu announced their Spring Festival red envelope distribution plans, with Tencent distributing 1 billion yuan and Baidu 500 million yuan [1] - The performance of gold mining companies is expected to increase significantly due to rising gold prices, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold announcing substantial earnings growth for 2025 [3][18] - The stock price of Pop Mart rebounded nearly 23% from January 19 to 23, recovering its market value to 294.6 billion HKD after a four-month decline [4][19] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China is shifting its focus on short-term interest rates, with the overnight rate potentially becoming a new benchmark, indicating a clearer approach to monetary policy [5][21] - Beijing's GDP is projected to grow around 5% in 2026, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and developing high-tech industries [6][22] - The IPO signals from three companies in the embodied intelligence sector suggest a potential boom in listings for this industry in 2026 [7][23] Group 3 - The global stock market ended 2025 strongly, with major indices rising over 20%, driven by technology and resource sectors [8][24] - The US dollar index fell nearly 2%, while gold prices surged, nearing 5,000 USD per ounce, marking a significant shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [9][25] - The new regulations on mutual fund performance benchmarks have been officially implemented, providing a practical reference for investors [10][26] Group 4 - The Beijing Stock Exchange saw its new stock subscription funds exceed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating growing investor interest [11][27] - Insurance companies have begun cautiously investing in gold, but overall allocation remains limited due to high prices and the need for careful exploration [12][28] - The international silver price reached a historic high, with a significant increase of 44.38% since the beginning of 2026 [15][31]

Group 1 - The comprehensive bonded zones in Jiangsu are becoming important platforms for foreign trade, with a total import and export value of 1,074.39 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The introduction of the bonded repair policy is helping companies transition from processing trade to service-oriented trade, with a projected repair output value of 80 million yuan by 2026, driving a 14% increase in production orders for companies [2][3] - The "bonded + research and development" policy is injecting innovation into high-tech industries, with companies benefiting from faster access to research materials and reduced financial pressure [3] Group 2 - The Jiangyin Customs is facilitating the export of large wind power products by creating specialized regulatory schemes, which help alleviate financial and storage pressures for companies [4] - The export value of new energy products from the Jiangyin comprehensive bonded zone reached 2.673 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [4] - The comprehensive bonded zones are providing strong support for the stability and optimization of foreign trade in Jiangsu, with ongoing efforts to tailor policies to meet enterprise needs [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market still has room for further development, with a focus on performance-driven investment strategies as earnings forecasts are set to be disclosed intensively in late January [1][5] - A-shares have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with significant money-making effects being restored, while major indices have exhibited mixed performances, indicating a divergence in market styles [1][3] - The liquidity in the market remains relatively abundant, despite large-scale net redemptions in broad-based ETFs, with active interest in industry and thematic ETFs [2][3] Group 2 - The recent market differentiation is characterized by small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, growth stocks outperforming value stocks, and technology and cyclical sectors outperforming stable and consumer sectors [3][4] - The importance of fundamental performance is expected to increase as the market focuses on earnings disclosures, with a notable percentage of companies forecasting positive earnings [5] - High-growth sectors such as computing, communications, lithium batteries, and energy storage are anticipated to experience explosive growth in earnings [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic sector, highlighting significant growth potential driven by Elon Musk's ambitious plans for solar power production [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the photovoltaic sector is poised for a resurgence, driven by Musk's announcement of a combined 100GW solar capacity for both space and ground within three years, which has exceeded expectations [6][8]. - The report identifies key areas of investment opportunity within the photovoltaic sector, including equipment, auxiliary materials, and battery components, particularly in the context of both space and ground applications [2][7][8]. - The report also highlights the expected performance of the wind power sector, hydrogen energy, AIDC power and liquid cooling technologies, and advancements in lithium battery technologies as additional areas of interest [2][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes that Chinese photovoltaic companies are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in equipment, core material supply, and capacity construction, particularly in light of Musk's vision [7][8]. - It mentions that the anticipated demand surge in 2026, coupled with the low expectations for 2025 earnings, creates a favorable environment for stock price increases in the photovoltaic sector [3][8]. Wind Power - The report cites CWEA's forecast of maintaining a wind power installation level of 120GW from 2026 to 2028, indicating significant potential for domestic wind power development [4][18]. - It highlights the interest of European offshore wind developers in procuring Chinese wind turbines, suggesting a growing market for domestic manufacturers [19][22]. Hydrogen Energy - The report underscores hydrogen's critical role in industrial green transformation, with strong policy support expected to drive growth in this sector [4][5]. AIDC Power and Liquid Cooling - The report expresses optimism regarding the AIDC power sector, particularly in light of the expected surge in orders and shipments in 2026, driven by advancements in AI power upgrades [4][34]. - It notes that domestic companies are increasingly securing positions in the global liquid cooling market, with significant orders expected to materialize [36]. Lithium Battery Technologies - The report highlights advancements in lithium battery technologies, including the introduction of solid-state and sodium-ion batteries, which are expected to enhance performance and reduce costs [30][33].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）近期A股整体呈现震荡上行格局，市场成交维持高位，赚钱效应明 显修复。与此同时，主要宽基指数涨跌互现，市场风格分化进一步加剧。代表大盘蓝筹的上证50和沪深 300指数表现较弱，而中证500和中证1000等中小盘指数则大幅领涨。逆周期调节政策落地后，春季行情 将如何演绎？市场结构性分化会否延续？请看本周机构研判。 中信证券：市场信心持续恢复中 消费链的增配时点就是当下 近期宽基ETF的赎回规模继续放大，在此背景下，不同行业和个股的承接力相差较大。从结构上来看， 主动型机构超配的板块和个股在宽基ETF赎回潮中反而超额收益更明显。往后看，市场信心处于持续恢 复过程中，只要估值处于相对低位、具备增长逻辑且非宽基权重股的行业，预计都将出现修复。其中消 费链的增配时点就是当下到3月前后，地产链亦可能在此阶段发生明显修复。 此外，在"资源+传统制造定价权重估"的基本思路下，围绕化工、有色、新能源、电力设备构建的基础 组合，仍然是优先配置方向。在此基础上，投资者可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分内需 品种（如免税、航空、建材等）或高景气品种（半导体设备、材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic sector, highlighting significant growth potential driven by Elon Musk's ambitious plans for solar power production [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the photovoltaic sector, particularly due to Musk's announcement of a target to establish 100GW of solar power capacity in both space and on the ground within three years, which has sparked renewed interest and investment in the industry [3][8]. - It identifies key areas of opportunity within the photovoltaic sector, including equipment, auxiliary materials, and battery components, as well as other sectors such as wind power, hydrogen energy, and advanced cooling technologies [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The report highlights the expected resurgence of the photovoltaic sector in 2026, driven by improved financial forecasts for companies and a rebound in stock prices following a period of low expectations [3][8]. - It notes that the demand for solar energy is expected to exceed previous forecasts, supported by advancements in technology and supply chain improvements [6][8]. Wind Power - The China Wind Energy Association (CWEA) predicts that domestic wind power installations will maintain a level of 120GW from 2026 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential in the sector [4][18]. - The report mentions that major European offshore wind developers are considering sourcing wind turbines from China, which could enhance the competitive position of domestic manufacturers in international markets [19][20]. Energy Storage and Hydrogen - The report underscores the importance of hydrogen as a key component in industrial decarbonization, with new policies reinforcing its role in the green transition [4][6]. - It highlights the expected growth in the hydrogen sector, particularly in fuel cells, as companies secure new orders and government support increases [4][6]. Advanced Cooling Technologies - The report notes the rising interest in advanced cooling technologies, particularly in the context of AI and data centers, with domestic companies poised to capture a larger share of the global market [4][36]. - It emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the AIDC power and liquid cooling sectors, driven by increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions in high-performance computing environments [4][36]. Electrical Grid - The report indicates that major electrical equipment exports are expected to grow, with a notable increase in transformer and high-voltage switch exports, reflecting strong international demand [24][25]. - It also highlights substantial investments planned by the Southern Power Grid, which are expected to support long-term growth in the domestic electrical infrastructure [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by strong demand from downstream markets such as electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics [1] Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - XianDao Intelligent anticipates a net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 424.29% to 529.15% due to a recovering global power battery market and strong demand in the energy storage sector [2] - PuTaiLai expects a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93.18% to 101.58%, driven by the ongoing trend of electrification in the automotive market and recovery in the consumer electronics sector [4] - TianCi Materials forecasts a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 127.31% to 230.63%, attributed to increased sales of lithium-ion battery materials and effective cost control [5] - Hunan YuNeng projects a net profit of 1.15 billion to 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 93.75% to 135.87%, driven by rapid growth in the demand for lithium battery cathode materials [6] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The overall market for lithium battery materials is expected to improve, with many companies in the lithium battery supply chain predicting significant performance growth in 2025 [5] - The global household energy storage system shipment is projected to reach approximately 35 GWh in 2025, a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, indicating a new demand release cycle following inventory adjustments [9] - The effective production capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to reach 40,000 tons in 2026, with an annual operating rate exceeding 90%, suggesting sustained high prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate [9]