从产业周期看农业板块投资机会——农业行业 2025 年度 中期投资策略 20250710 摘要 养殖板块正经历从周期成长向周期价值的转变，大型上市公司现金流改 善，行业盈利分化，龙头企业估值处于历史底部，中长期盈利中枢有望 提升，股东回报增加。 宠物食品板块高速成长，营收增速加快，盈利能力提升，头部企业品牌 影响力释放，国产品牌通过配方研发和渠道投入实现高速增长，推荐关 注乖宝宠物和中宠股份。 饲料板块推荐海大集团，上半年饲料销量增长显著，尽管业绩预告可能 低于预期，但公司竞争力和中长期成长性确定，海外市场空间广阔，销 量预计维持 30%以上增幅。 生猪养殖行业规模化程度提高，但非洲猪瘟后资本扩张导致产能过剩。 目前专业化分工明显，大集团专注育种，中小养场专注育肥，下游屠宰 及食品加工厂盈利增加。 重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农科技及德康股份等生猪 养殖企业，这些公司成本优势明显，利润兑现度高，自由现金流充裕， 有望实现更高股东回报。 Q&A 2025 年农业板块的中期投资策略是什么？ 从产业生命周期来看，农业板块的投资机会可以分为两个细分领域：养殖产业 链和宠物产业链。养殖产业链近年来经历了规模 ...

7月10日晚间，A股"高端零食第一股"良品铺子（603719.SH）发布公告称，公司控股股东宁波 汉意创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"宁波汉意"）正在筹划重大事项， 该事项可 能导致公司控制权变更。 公司股票将自7月11日（周五）开市起停牌，预计停牌时间不超过两 个交易日。 同日，良品铺子开盘后快速拉升，以13.71元/股封住涨停板。Wind数据显示，零食指数 （851281.SI）收盘下跌0.98%。公告发布后，引发投资者热议甚至质疑，对此南财快讯记者向 良品铺子有关人士求证，对方回应称： "一切以公告发布为准。" 电影院告急！空场率达40%，场均观众少至2人 上调2%！退休人员基本养老金调整 业绩方面，良品铺子持续承压，2024年公司营收71.59亿元，同比下滑11.02%，归母净利润亏 损0.46亿元，同比大跌125.57%。2025年一季度延续颓势，公司营收17.32亿元，同比下跌 29.34%；归母净利润亏损0.36亿元，同比大跌157.85%。 对此，良品铺子表示，公司正处于经营策略调整阶段，降价对毛利产生了一定的影响，同时因 毛利率等变动，公司部分门店资产减值及存货跌价准备增加，以上均带 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 策略专题 证券研究报告 新思考：海外消费转型的宏观与中观映射 核心结论：复盘美日消费行业转型的漫长过程，我们认为，消费板块行情的 盘整是休息而非结束。从美国与日本消费趋势的迁移过程来看，共性趋势是 消费主体从家庭到个人、消费对象从城市化生活方式下的可选消费到个人精 神消费，这个过程中往往伴随着 GDP 增速的下台阶。当前中国正处于从高速 增长迈向高质量增长的阶段，新旧增长动能转换下，初步判断，我国人口与 收入结构等经济指标与日本第三消费社会和美国品牌消费阶段的后半程定位 类似，社零增长主要依靠量的增长。必选消费板块当前的投资思路为：以底 仓思维为基础，主线为低估值优质稳成长，叠加高股息率；分别从估值、ROE 和股息率进行筛选，主要集中在食饮、纺服等一级行业。可选消费板块的配 置思路可以从财报入手，筛选经营改善标的，根据宏观经济数据的好转程度 进行右侧布局。 从美国与日本消费趋势的迁移过程来看，共性趋势是消费主体从家庭到个人、 消费对象从城市化生活方式下的可选消费到个人精神消费，这个过程中往往 伴随着 GDP 增速的下台阶。我们发现，日本的第二至第四消费社会可以与美 国三个消费阶段进行对 ...

Group 1: Beijing's Consumption Reform Plan - The Beijing government released a plan to boost consumption, encouraging cross-industry collaboration among brands to stimulate the market potential of domestic products [1] - The plan supports the innovation and digital transformation of traditional brands, particularly "old brands," and promotes partnerships with well-known IPs to create new retail experiences [1] - The initiative aims to develop a "millet economy" and foster high-quality animation products, establishing a hub for new-generation trendy toys and supporting domestic brands in expanding their markets internationally [1] Group 2: Jay Chou's Douyin Account - Jay Chou's Douyin account surpassed 10 million followers, despite no content being posted, indicating his strong influence in the market [2] - The stock price of "Jay Chou concept stock" Giant Legend surged significantly following the news of his Douyin entry, reflecting the value of his IP [2] - Giant Legend confirmed that their business operations remain normal and strategic plans are being executed as intended, despite the stock price volatility [2] Group 3: "Ne Zha 2" English Dub Release - The English dubbed version of "Ne Zha: The Devil's Child" is set to premiere on August 22 in North America, Australia, and New Zealand, showcasing the film in IMAX and 3D formats [3] - The film has achieved record-breaking box office success, being the highest-grossing animated film globally and among non-English films [3] - The inclusion of Oscar-winning actress Michelle Yeoh in the English version is expected to enhance its appeal to international audiences and showcase the film's cultural depth [3] Group 4: Heytea Logo Change - Heytea's recent logo change sparked public interest and became a trending topic on social media, with customer service confirming the adjustment [4] - This is not the first time Heytea has altered its logo, indicating a strategy to maintain brand freshness while preserving its classic image [4] - The brand engages consumers through logo changes, enhancing brand recognition and balancing brand communication with consumer memory [4]

今 年 ， 港 股 融 资 市 场 极 为 火 热 。 Wind 数 据 显 示 ， 今 年 以 来 ， 港 股 市 场 股 权 融 资 规 模 已 逼 近 3000 亿 港 元 ， 达 到 2879.82 亿 港 元 ， 同 比 大 增 350.56%。 总体来看，今年港股市场无论是IPO还是再融资规模都呈爆发式增长，尤其是IPO表现更为抢眼。港股上半年共完成42宗IPO，合计集资额超过1070亿港元，较去年 全年多约22%，暂列全球第一。 融资规模持续创新高 在2023年和2024年，港股市场无论是IPO还是再融资都较为疲软，IPO方面这两年分别融资463.34亿港元和881.47亿港元，均不超过千亿港元；再融资方面，主要 以配售为主，这两年分别融资661.61亿港元和545.99亿港元，同样不超过千亿港元。 但自2024年下半年以来，港股市场在多项重磅政策带动下再次活跃，而在2025年上半年，整个市场更是不断复苏。 Wind数据显示，2025年以来，港股市场股权融资规模已达到2879.82亿港元，远高于2023年和2024年全年的1424.39亿港元和1756.60亿港元，甚至也已经高于 2022年全年 ...

Fundraising Overview - The company has completed its initial public offering (IPO) of 40.01 million A-shares at a price of 10.05 RMB per share, raising a total of 402.10 million RMB, with a net amount of 335.13 million RMB after deducting issuance costs [1] Fund Management and Storage - The company has established a dedicated account for the management and storage of the raised funds, in compliance with relevant regulations, and has signed a tripartite supervision agreement with its sponsor and banks [2] Project Fund Allocation Changes - In May 2023, the company approved a change in the allocation of 201.99 million RMB of unutilized funds from two original projects to a new project involving the production of solid and semi-solid food seasonings and agricultural product processing by Shandong Baoxin Food Technology Co., Ltd [3] Investment Increase and Project Adjustment - In August 2024, the company approved an increase in investment and adjustments to the construction content and internal investment structure for the Shandong Baoxin project, while keeping the amount of raised funds unchanged and renaming the project to "Shandong Baoxin Food Technology Co., Ltd. Food Seasoning Full Industry Chain Base Construction Project" [4] Fund Usage and Account Closure - As of the announcement date, all raised funds have been fully utilized, and the corresponding dedicated account for the Shandong Baoxin project has been closed, with a balance of 0 RMB [5][6]

Group 1 - The report highlights high-growth potential sectors for Q2 2025, including optical modules, diesel generators, innovative pharmaceuticals, and deep-sea technology, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies [2][22][23] - Key themes identified include anti-involution for high-quality industry development, deep-sea technology as a pillar of marine economic strategy, and the acceleration of global stablecoin regulatory frameworks [2][23] - The report notes that the central bank is enhancing financial support for the real economy and expanding the technical standard system for emerging industries [2][23] Group 2 - The report on interest rates indicates that the net issuance of government bonds will remain relatively high in the second half of the year, with a more uniform monthly issuance pattern expected [3][28] - It is anticipated that the central bank will continue to use various tools to stabilize the funding environment, with potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut in the third quarter [3][30] - The bond market is experiencing a shift from a bear to a bull market, with a notable correlation between stock and bond performance observed in the second quarter [5][31] Group 3 - The report on Chip Dynamics (688582) indicates that the company is a leader in MEMS sensors, with projected revenues of 4.05 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.22 billion yuan for 2024, maintaining a gross margin above 70% [9][35] - The company has achieved a 23.45% market share in MEMS gyroscopes, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase since 2019, and is positioned to benefit from the growth in smart driving and industrial automation [9][35][36] - The IMU segment is expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of 175.8% from 2021 to 2024, driven by demand in low-altitude economy, smart driving, and humanoid robots [9][36][37] Group 4 - The report on Kangnait Optical (02276) forecasts a net profit increase of no less than 30% for the first half of 2025, driven by global strategic expansion and product structure optimization [11] - The company is enhancing its supply chain resilience by establishing a new high-end lens production line in Japan, which will mitigate tariff risks and ensure stable supply to the U.S. market [11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the resin lens market, with a focus on functional and customized lenses, leading to improved profitability [11] Group 5 - The report on Jinhui Industrial (002597) highlights the approval of D-alloheptulose as a food ingredient, marking a significant step in aligning domestic applications with international standards [12][16] - The company is positioned as the second approved enzyme manufacturer for D-alloheptulose in China, showcasing its technological leadership in functional sweeteners [12][16] - The projected net profits for Jinhui Industrial are 1.171 billion yuan, 2.118 billion yuan, and 2.365 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [12][16]

Group 1 - The US stock market closed at a historic high on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index rising by 0.27%, and 9 out of 11 sectors showing gains, particularly in consumer discretionary and energy stocks [1] - Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) saw its stock price surge by 11.99% after announcing a restored full-year profit outlook and an increase in passenger numbers, which also positively impacted travel-related companies and car rental stocks [1] - MP Materials (MP.US) experienced a dramatic stock price increase of 50.62%, marking its largest single-day gain, following a multi-billion dollar agreement with the US Department of Defense to build a magnet factory and expand rare earth production [1] Group 2 - Trade policy uncertainty continues as President Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil, while also announcing a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1 [4] - Analysts express concerns that the unpredictable tariff policies may weigh on the stock market, with a noted decrease in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in September due to policy delays [4] - There is a noticeable rotation in market performance, with previously underperforming sectors rebounding strongly, while early-year leaders are losing momentum, reflecting investor attempts to balance between optimistic consumption recovery and concerns over escalating trade tensions [4]

Core Insights - Factory tours have become a new trend in the cultural and tourism market, showcasing the transformation of Chinese manufacturing and attracting numerous visitors [1][3] Group 1: Factory Tours and Consumer Demand - The popularity of factory tours is driven by consumer demand and industrial upgrades, reflecting a shift in perception towards manufacturing [1] - Factory tours originated in the 1950s in France, with automotive companies like Citroën opening production lines to the public, which has now expanded to various sectors including food, textiles, and robotics [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements in Manufacturing - Modern factories demonstrate a shift from labor-intensive processes to innovation-driven production, integrating technologies such as artificial intelligence and industrial internet [2] - The transformation of manufacturing is characterized by improvements in precision control, flexible production, and customization capabilities [2] Group 3: Environmental Sustainability - Factories are adopting green practices, showcasing advanced and eco-friendly environments, with efforts to reduce energy consumption and pollution [2] - Examples include the use of photovoltaic roofs and energy storage systems, which contribute to a sustainable manufacturing model [2] Group 4: Brand Quality and Consumer Trust - Factory tours serve as a platform for conveying brand values, enhancing consumer trust through transparency in production processes [3] - The integration of cultural elements into products has elevated Chinese manufacturing from mere production to brand recognition [3] Group 5: Integration of Manufacturing and Services - The fusion of manufacturing and tourism creates diverse service scenarios, expanding the value-added space for manufacturing while injecting industrial elements into the service sector [3] - This integration fosters a virtuous cycle of production efficiency, quality consumption, and industrial value enhancement [3] Group 6: Overall Impact on Chinese Manufacturing - The rise of factory tours highlights the charm of Chinese manufacturing, which is moving towards higher-end, intelligent, and green production [3]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant surge in equity financing this year, with total financing reaching 2879.82 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 350.56% [1][2] - The IPO market has been particularly strong, with 42 IPOs completed in the first half of the year, raising over 1070 billion HKD, which is approximately 22% more than the total for the previous year, making it the largest globally [1][2] Financing Scale - In 2023 and 2024, the Hong Kong market experienced relatively weak financing, with IPOs raising 463.34 billion HKD and 881.47 billion HKD respectively, both under 1 billion HKD [2] - Since the second half of 2024, the market has become active again due to several key policies, with 2025 seeing a total equity financing of 2879.82 billion HKD, surpassing the total for 2023 and 2024 combined [2] - The rapid growth in financing is attributed to a significant increase in placement issuance, which has reached 1569.85 billion HKD in 2025, exceeding the combined total of 1206 billion HKD from 2023 and 2024 [2] Leading Companies Driving Growth - Major companies have played a crucial role in boosting the equity financing scale, with three companies in the top 10 IPO projects raising over 100 billion HKD each, including Ningde Times at 410 billion HKD [3] - The top 10 fundraising projects include seven A-share companies, indicating strong participation from A+H companies in the IPO market [3] - In the top 10 refinancing projects, BYD and Xiaomi have raised over 400 billion HKD each, accounting for more than 50% of the total refinancing amount in 2025 [3][4] Industry Trends - A notable trend in the Hong Kong financing landscape is the urgent need for capital in thriving industries, particularly in technology hardware, capital goods, and automotive sectors [5] - The financing activities are heavily driven by emerging sectors such as new energy, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, reflecting a dual focus on technology and consumer markets [5][6] - These industries are facing intense competition and pressures to expand internationally, prompting a strategic move to accumulate more capital through the market [6]