证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略月报 2 月热点或将延续 1 月的科技、有色等方向 ——2026 年 02 月 A 股策略 率窄幅震荡》 2025.11.25 证书编号：S0500519120001 Tel：(8621) 50295323 Email：qh3062@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 相关研究： 2026 年宏观短周期和中周期有望形成向上共振格局 1. 《20251125湘财证券-策略研 究-12月等待政策定调，市场大概 2. 《20251222湘财证券-策略研 究-1月市场大概率继续窄幅震荡》 2025.12.22 我们预判 2026 年宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底部反弹的阶段，有望形 成向上共振格局。具体原因有：一是海外方面，中美贸易冲突缓和，有助于 减轻经济下行压力。二是"十五五"规划即将落地，新质生产力依然是重要 发展方向，随着人工智能等科技领域的快速发展，将有效推动我国产业升级。 三是 2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议定调 2026 年宏观政策为继续实施更加 积极的财政政策、适度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth's stock price has shown a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of 9.80% and a notable net inflow of funds, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the rare earth sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 21, Northern Rare Earth's stock price rose by 2.06% to 50.64 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 15.15 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.84%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 1830.67 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 1.63% over the last five trading days and by 11.17% over the past 20 days, while it has decreased by 5.01% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 302.92 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.41 billion CNY, which is a substantial increase of 280.27% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth reached 667,200, an increase of 2.12% from the previous period, with an average of 5,418 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 2.07% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 53.58 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 9.94 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 80.36 million shares, a decrease of 58.33 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other notable institutional shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, both of which have seen changes in their holdings, indicating active management and potential shifts in investment strategies [3].

Core Viewpoint - As of January 19, the disclosure rate of annual performance forecasts for A-shares is 7.98%, with a peak expected in late January, where the final disclosure rate may reach around 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - The performance forecasts indicate that companies with significant net profit growth are primarily in sectors such as computing power, new energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers [6][10]. - By January 19, 447 A-share companies have released annual performance forecasts, with 144 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, mainly in computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment), new energy (batteries, photovoltaics), and chemicals [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the performance forecasts enter their peak disclosure period, the correlation between stock prices and performance is expected to increase significantly in the latter half of January, with market sentiment returning to rationality [5]. - The market is likely to undergo a structural adjustment based on fundamentals, with previous hot sectors facing performance validation, while some low-performing but high-quality sectors may attract new capital inflows [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The sectors with upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (especially in upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like consumer electronics and software), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military, automotive), and cyclical industries (building materials, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel) [12][13]. - The industries with lower performance growth since the last market rally include AI computing power, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors like steel and glass fiber [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The short-term decline in tin prices highlights the medium to long-term investment value [4] - The macro environment is tightening, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [5] - Supply and demand dynamics are weakening, with insufficient fundamental support [7] - The industry chain is experiencing transmission difficulties, causing accelerated capital withdrawal [8] - Despite short-term pressures, tin remains a strategic metal with increasing importance in high-growth sectors [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown strong relative performance with returns of 82.53% compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Significant accumulation of visible inventory indicates a loosening of market supply, with production and export activities in major raw material regions recovering [7] - Demand side: Facing seasonal and structural challenges, traditional sectors lack large-scale replenishment motivation, while emerging sectors have not provided sufficient incremental demand [7] Market Sentiment - The tightening macro environment has suppressed market sentiment, with a strong dollar negatively impacting commodity prices like tin [5] - Regulatory measures aimed at curbing speculation have led to a significant reduction in market risk appetite [5] Investment Recommendations - The significant pullback in tin prices poses short-term pressure on related listed companies, with potential compression of profit growth [8] - Long-term investment opportunities in the tin sector are still worth monitoring, particularly in companies like Xingye Yinxin, Xiyu Shares, and Huaxi Nonferrous [8]

证券之星消息，1月20日小金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.75%，西部材料领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4113.65，下跌0.01%。深证成指报收于14155.63，下跌0.97%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001280 | 中国舞业 | 86.08 | 7.22% | 45.13万 | | 37.71亿 | | 002842 | 翔鹭钨业 | 20.94 | 4.18% | 77.01万 | | 15.12亿 | | 002182 | 宝武镁业 | 18.67 | 1.69% | 53.57万 | | 9.91亿 | | 000960 | 锡业股份 | 38.12 | 1.63% | 63.52万 | | 24.02亿 | | 002378 | 章源钨业 | 19.42 | 0.94% | 128.69万 | | 24.09亿 | | 002738 | 中矿资源 | 84.06 | 0.91% | 24.84万 | | 20.87亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - The top stock with the largest fund outflow is Xinye Technology, with a decrease of 20.21 billion yuan and a drop of 5.01% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang follows with an outflow of 18.09 billion yuan and a decline of 3.22% [2] - Yangguang Electric Power experienced an outflow of 15.07 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.25% [2] - Shenghong Technology saw a fund outflow of 14.52 billion yuan and a drop of 5.02% [2] - China Satellite had an outflow of 13.92 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 7.84% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is notably affected, with multiple companies like Xinye Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Fenghuo Communication experiencing substantial fund outflows [2][3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Yangguang Electric Power and Longi Green Energy, also shows significant outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The electronic components sector, including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co., is facing similar trends with notable fund withdrawals [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The main market experienced a significant outflow of capital, totaling 879.71 billion yuan, with various sectors facing substantial losses in funding [1]. Group 1: Capital Outflow by Sector - The top ten sectors with the largest capital outflows include: - Communication Equipment: -133.99 billion yuan, with a decline of 3.82% [2][3] - Electronic Components: -83.61 billion yuan, with a decline of 2.35% [2][3] - Consumer Electronics: -66.11 billion yuan, with a decline of 2.03% [2] - Photovoltaic Equipment: -62.49 billion yuan, with a decline of 2.72% [2] - Software Development: -44.11 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.91% [2] - Specialized Equipment: -42.24 billion yuan [1] - Internet Services: -41.79 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.87% [3] - Aerospace: -41.67 billion yuan, with a decline of 3.23% [3] - Minor Metals: -37.02 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.37% [3] - Power Grid Equipment: -35.07 billion yuan, with a minimal decline of 0.13% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active trading of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 1% at the opening but later experienced a decline of 0.98% as the market consolidated. The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 26.4 million units, following a significant inflow of 644 million yuan over the past ten days [1][10] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has reached a new historical high in size, amounting to 1.626 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index among three such ETFs in the market [5][13] - The ETF covers a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing it to capture various market cycles such as precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery) [7][16] Group 2 - Ming Tai Aluminum has seen a significant stock price increase of 9.99%, with a projected net profit for 2025 estimated between 1.95 billion to 2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% to 14%. The company attributes this growth to the low-carbon advantages of its recycled aluminum products [2][11] - Other notable stocks include Nanshan Aluminum and Hunan Silver, which have also experienced price increases of over 5%, while several other companies in the nonferrous sector have shown positive performance [4][14] - The macroeconomic context includes geopolitical tensions leading to potential tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, which may impact the nonferrous metals market. Additionally, gold prices have surged significantly, with expectations of further increases due to ongoing buying from central banks and insurance companies [3][12]

Group 1: Rare Earth Metals - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 674,400 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.14% month-on-month [3] - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,490,000 CNY/ton, up 7.97% month-on-month; the price of terbium oxide is 6,420,000 CNY/ton, up 8.08% month-on-month [3] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [3] Group 2: Small Metals Index - The Shenyin Wanguo small metals index is at 35,396.26 points, up 16.48% month-on-month, outperforming the Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous index by 4.63 percentage points [2] Group 3: Tin - The price of tin ingots is 414,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 27.16% month-on-month; supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations [4] - The long-term supply-demand dynamics for tin are expected to improve due to recovery in semiconductor demand driven by AI and automotive intelligence [4] Group 4: Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 503,700 CNY/ton, up 11.15% month-on-month; ammonium paratungstate is priced at 745,300 CNY/ton, up 11.31% month-on-month [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase the priority of tungsten in global supply chains [4] Group 5: Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 162,000 CNY/ton, up 0.09% month-on-month; antimony concentrate price remains stable at 137,900 CNY/ton [5] - November exports of antimony oxide increased by 68% month-on-month but decreased by 61% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in demand [5] Group 6: Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,010 CNY/ton, up 8.38% month-on-month; molybdenum iron is priced at 254,000 CNY/ton, up 3.67% month-on-month [6] - The increase in defense spending and low inventory levels may further support molybdenum prices [6]

2026.01. 19 本文字数：3133，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 景气度较差的地产行业，相关上市公司业绩也普遍承压。华夏幸福（600340.SH）预计去年归母净利润亏损160亿元至240亿元；绿地控股 （600606.SH）预亏160亿元至190亿元。就业绩亏损的原因，上述两家企业均表示市场有效需求不足、社会预期偏弱，房地产业的结转规模、基建产 业的营收规模同比均有较大幅度下降。 A股市场已有超过350家公司发布2025年度业绩预告，一幅清晰的产业景气度"分野图"就此展开。 业绩预告数据显示，在全球科技浪潮与商品周期驱动下， 半导体、有色金属 行业业绩耀眼，龙头公司普遍实现高增长；而曾备受瞩目的 光伏 产业则因 产能过剩、价格内卷深陷亏损，多家龙头预亏合计超300亿元。更为引人深思的是， 商业航天、AI应用 等此前遭资金热捧的赛道，多数公司业绩预告 亏损，凸显概念炒作后基本面与估值的严重脱节。 综观已披露的业绩预告，A股市场正在经历一场从"预期叙事"到"报表验证"的切换，市场资金正基于业绩真实成色进行博弈与调仓，业绩确定性已成为 当前市场的核心锚点。 半导体业绩实现高增长，光伏龙头陷 ...