不过，重返白宫的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普向包括欧盟在内的大部分国家征收所谓"对等关税"，令经济 增长前景陷入高度不确定。欧盟在 90天贸易谈判窗口内大多数出口商品将面临美国政府设立的10%对 等关税，钢铁和铝制品，以及汽车整体和汽车零部件则面临25%关税举措，并且欧盟与美国贸易谈判走 向仍然未知。 欧盟本月稍早同意将对美国政府主导的25%钢铝关税的反制措施延后90天实施。此举是在特朗普将对大 多数欧盟出口产品的所谓"对等关税"税率暂时从 20% 降至 10%、关说豁免的时间期限同为90天之后所 作出的决定。特朗普还对欧盟以及全球范围的汽车以及部分零部件加征了大约25% 的关税。 特朗普政府已经开始对中国(美国前三大贸易伙伴之一)征收高达145%的惊人关税，并对大多数其他国家 征收至少10%关税，尽管对于消费电子、半导体等某些细分领域暂时豁免关税，但是许多经济预测人士 因此警告未来全球经济将急剧放缓，部分人甚至预测今年美国就将出现深度经济衰退。 智通财经APP获悉，德国3月份的工厂整体订单增幅超过市场普遍预期，显示在美国关税政策宣布之 前，欧洲最大规模经济体的制造业形势有所改善。然而，特朗普政府掀起的新一轮面向全 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift in the US-China trade dynamics since the implementation of Trump's tariffs, with the share of US imports from China dropping from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, indicating a rapid "de-China-ization" trend [11][13][31] - Conversely, China's exports to the US have increased by 22% from 2017 to 2024, with the export value rising from 429.8 billion USD to 524.7 billion USD, showcasing a contrasting trend in trade statistics [11][12][31] - The report notes that the indirect value added from China in US imports has grown significantly, from 75.3 billion USD in 2017 to 148.9 billion USD in 2024, a 97.7% increase, indicating resilience in the value chain despite direct trade reductions [26][27][31] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the US's attempts to decouple from China have not significantly reduced the overall trade linkages, with the indirect trade connections through value chains largely compensating for the decline in direct trade [4][31][32] - The report discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs on global supply chains, particularly highlighting that labor-intensive products, which are most affected by tariffs, are the least likely to return to the US [5][37][41] - It emphasizes that the diversification of supply chains is becoming essential for US importers to mitigate tariff risks, particularly in labor-intensive industries, which are expected to accelerate their dispersal [5][48][50]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional stock market saying "May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround" does not hold true based on statistical analysis of the A-share market from 1991 to 2024, indicating that the calendar effect is a misconception [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown that from 2009 to 2024, April generally has a low probability of rising, while August tends to have a larger average decline [1] - June and July have relatively high probabilities of rising, contrary to the saying, with May showing a rise probability of less than 50% but not being the lowest month [1] - In the earlier period from 1991 to 2008, October had the lowest probability of rising, while May and June had higher probabilities, further debunking the "poor May" notion [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - In May, the market is expected to shift back to technology growth sectors, with catalysts including updates on AI large models and developments in robotics [2] - Key areas of focus include AI applications in cloud computing, office automation, and healthcare, as well as the ongoing trend of domestic semiconductor production [2] - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to gain momentum following the announcement of pilot cities, with strong expectations for construction and development in related sectors [2] Group 3: Market Performance - Recent market performance showed a broad increase in individual stocks, with nearly 5,000 stocks rising and trading volume expanding to 1.3 trillion, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3] - Technology sectors such as computers, communications, machinery, media, and electronics led the gains, while defensive sectors like food and beverage showed minimal increases [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong performance of mechanical stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly the significant rise of Boleton, which increased by 50% [1] - Boleton's stock surge is attributed to its public offering phase, which received a subscription rate of 198.72 times [1] - Other companies in the mechanical sector also experienced gains, with Sensong International rising by 3.48% and Sany International increasing by 2.10% [1]

点击小程序查看报告原文 4月2日特朗普宣布"对等关税"大超预期，中国随之反制，全球市场剧烈波动，中国市场未能幸免，港股4月7日单日跌幅基本回吐年内全部涨幅。不过，随 着情绪逐步消化，4月7日后国内市场逐步企稳，港股修复力度更大。截至5月2日，恒生科技累计反弹19.1%，MSCI中国、恒生指数、恒生国企分别反弹 13.6%、13.5%和13.3%，上证指数和沪深300小幅反弹5.9%和5.0%。板块层面，4月8日-5月2日，信息技术（+29.0%）、医疗保健（+19.2%）、可选消费 （+14.3%）等板块涨幅领先，银行（+4.9%）、公用事业（+5.6%）、能源（+5.9%）等板块相对落后。 图表：关税前后指数及板块表现 资料来源：Wind，FactSet，中金公司研究部 图表：聚焦关税影响，从需求端构建分析框架 资料来源：中金公司研究部 从上述的分类中不难看出， 主要需求来自国内的行业受关税影响最小， 但又与国内政策刺激力度紧密相关，毕竟当前私人部门信用周期尚未完全修复； 而主要需求来自美国以外且没有直接竞争关系的可能相对较好；主要需求来自美国、转口渠道有限且议价能力较低的板块受冲击最大。具体来看， 过去一 ...

A 股 2025 一季报和 2024 年报分析 20250506 摘要 • 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利能力改善，剔除金融和"三桶油"后利润增速超 3%，中小市值股票和创业板业绩提升显著，表明盈利周期触底。 • 出海业务对 A 股影响显著，剔除金融及"三桶油"后，全 A 公司出口敞口 达历史新高 15.6%，但出海公司增速已现回落，内需型公司风险波动相对 较小。 • A 股上市公司亏损面仍高，2025 年一季度仍有 29%的公司亏损，产能出 清缓慢，企业合同负债和预收账款虽触底回升但仍为负增长。 • 企业现金流未进一步恶化，营收质量有所回升，分红回购意愿增强，2025 年以来公告回购金额超 1,100 亿元，远超过去两年同期水平。 • 先进制造与消费板块经历产能消化周期，先进制造盈利能力处于历史低位， 但供给端持续出清；消费板块进入消费降级通道，净利润增速下降。 • 科技板块收入和利润增速领先，ROE 改善显著；医药板块盈利能力接近历 史最低水平，但低端仿制药与医疗耗材供给端持续出清。 • 合同负债和预收账款增速上升的二级行业包括军工电子、新能源金属等， 受订单驱动景气度较高；高景气二级行业包括半导体、通信 ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 在手订单充足，受益于大规模设备更新 —博隆技术（603325.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 博隆技术于 2025 年 4 月 26 日发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年营业收入实现 11.57 亿元，同比下降 5.43%；归母净利润 实现 2.97 亿元，同比增长 3.32%。于 2025 年 4 月 26 日发布 2025 年第一季度报告，2025 年第一季度营业收入实现 3.28 亿元，同比增长 131.09%，归母净利润实现 1.04 亿元，同比 增长 270.28%。 投资要点 ▌石化产业转型升级提速，公司受益设备更新换代 石化及新材料产业持续向智能化、环保化转型升级，国家政 策大力支持高端装备国产替代和产业链自主可控。2024 年至 2025 年，裕龙岛炼化一体化、宝丰烯烃、岳阳石化等多个大 型项目密集投产或招标，带动聚烯烃物料输送与处理装备需 求增长。与此同时，随着国家"大规模设备更新"政策的推 进，大量上世纪八九十年代投产的石化装置进入更新周期。 博隆技术深耕聚烯烃气力输送系统与智能化粉粒体物料处理 领域，凭借高效、低损耗、环保的技术优势，有 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《基金 Q1 加仓有色汽车传媒，减仓电 新食饮通信——公募基金 2025Q1 季报 点评》 - 2025.04.30 《 DeepSeek-R1 带 动 思 维 链 学 ， DeepMind 推出 QuestBench 基准——AI 动态汇总 20250428》- 2025.04.28 《泛消费打开连板与涨幅高度，ETF 资 金平铺机器人、人工智能与芯片——行 业轮动周报 20250427》 – 2025.04.28 《年报效应边际递减，右侧买入信号触 发——微盘股指数周报 20250427》 – 2025.04.27 《动量波动分化，低波高涨占优——中 邮因子周报 20250427》 – 2025.04.27 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，智谱发布 GLM- 4-32B-0414 系 列 — — AI 动态汇总 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The petrochemical industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading, benefiting the company through equipment renewal [2] - The company has a substantial order backlog, with total orders amounting to 4.772 billion yuan, ensuring high revenue certainty for the future [3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed significant growth in performance, with revenue reaching 328 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.09% [4][8] - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with forecasts of 1.616 billion yuan, 2.123 billion yuan, and 2.654 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.157 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.43% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 297 million yuan, an increase of 3.32% [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 328 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.09%, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 270.28% [4][8] Order Backlog and Project Progress - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total order backlog of 4.772 billion yuan, with 74.22% from polyolefin pneumatic conveying systems [3] - The company is advancing its fundraising projects, with key projects expected to be operational by early 2026, enhancing capacity and technology [3] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand growth in the petrochemical sector, driven by national policies supporting high-end equipment and domestic substitution [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 6.17 yuan, 7.75 yuan, and 9.70 yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9]

责任编辑：彭紫晨 A股市场后续机会预计显著好于4月份。1季报落地后，投资者对业绩的担忧大为缓解，风险偏好有望提 升，一旦行业发生积极变化，投资者将会积极参与，从而提高市场活跃度，科技成长、高端制造、新消 费等领域尤为值得重视。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至上周，A股1季报披露完毕，整体表现好于预期。2025年1季度，全A上市公司营收同比-0.37%，归 母净利润实现近1.49万亿元，同比+3.47%，较去年4季度大幅改善；全A非金融归母净利润实现7797亿 元，同比+4.17%，而去年4个季度净利润均为负增长。上市公司1季度实现了良好的开局，但由于关税 影响，宏观基本面短期承压，根据统计局披露的制造业PMI数据看，4月份制造业PMI回落至49%，低于 预期，受外需影响，企业生产指数、在手订单、价格指数等均有显著下滑，这意味着1季度上市公司的 业绩改善较难线性外推至2季度，不过我们认为今年上半年A股上市公司业绩增速将好于年初悲观预 期。 4月份市场整体回落，主要跌幅发生在4月7日，其他交易日表现平稳。从指数表现看，科创50、上证 50、上证指数等跌幅相对较小，创业板指、中证500等跌幅较大，价值 ...