Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. A rebound requires steel mills to cut production or an improvement in demand expectations. Temporarily, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - finished products and short - raw materials arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure. The sustainability of high hot metal production depends on terminal demand, and there are supply - side risks such as increased overseas shipments and potential production cuts [4]. Coke - Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakening of coking coal and the possible issuance of a flat - control document for crude steel production are expected to bring pressure. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices may continue to decline. There is still room for decline in the future. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations and consider going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved after production cuts, the high inventory and the uncertain demand limit the price rebound, but the cost provides support [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese prices are expected to decline steadily. The supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support is insufficient [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production increased by 4.2 tons to 244.4 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.2%, with rebar inventory down by 4.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material transactions decreased by 7.3%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties declined slightly, and the basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, while the arrivals at ports decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8%, and the monthly production of pig iron and crude steel increased significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 0.6%, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased slightly [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a mixed trend, with the 2505 contract rising and the 2509 contract falling. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production increased, with the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increasing by 2.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The iron - making capacity utilization rate of downstream steel mills increased, and the iron water production reached over 244 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with coking plant inventories decreasing and steel mill inventories increasing slightly [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract falling more significantly. The 5 - 9 spread stabilized [6]. - **Supply**: Domestic coal mines continued to resume production, but the port customs clearance decreased [6]. - **Demand**: Coking production increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal from downstream users increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with upstream mine inventories increasing and port inventories decreasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production continued to decrease, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased significantly, and the non - steel demand showed seasonal improvement [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production decreased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and the building material demand may have reached its peak [7]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased, but the arrivals at ports remained high, and the port inventory increased by 5.0% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with the March JOLTS job openings hitting a six - month low, and the upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may disappoint. The policies of the Trump administration and the tariff war are negatively affecting the labor market [7]. - For the container shipping index (European line), the near - term is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly, and reduce positions for near - month single - side trading before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and be cautious when holding positions before the holiday [10]. - For live pigs, the inventory accumulation drive is weakening, and a phased inventory reduction may start, with short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - reading Highlights from the Director - **US Labor Market**: The US March JOLTS job openings were 7.192 million, far lower than the expected 7.5 million. The data has been on a downward trend since 2022, and recent policies have further impacted the labor market. The upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may be disappointing [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - term is under pressure. In early May, the loading rate was lower than expected, and the market freight rate has dropped. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be held through the holiday, and near - month single - side trading should reduce positions before the holiday [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak. The industry inventory is high, supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious before the holiday [10]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory accumulation drive is weakening. With the increase in temperature, a phased inventory reduction may start in May, and there are short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver rebounds steadily. Gold has a trend strength of 0, and silver also has a trend strength of 0 [18][21]. - **Copper**: Inventory continues to decrease, supporting the price. The trend strength is 0 [23][25]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum fluctuates strongly, while alumina drops significantly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: It has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and will trade sideways in the short term. The trend strength is 0 [29][30]. - **Lead**: Demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32][33]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upside and downside space of nickel converges, and the price may trade in a narrow range. Stainless steel has a cost - feedback game on the disk. Both have a trend strength of 0 [35][38]. - **Tin**: It shows a slight recovery. The trend strength is 0 [39][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weakly oscillating disk, and polysilicon has a slight increase in registered warehouse receipts. Both have a trend strength of - 1 [43][46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the disk is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it trades in a wide range. The trend strength is 0 [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand expectations are poor, and prices fluctuate at a low level. Both have a trend strength of 0 [55][58]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to black - sector resonance, and manganese ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to ore - end information disturbances. Both have a trend strength of 0 [59][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are disturbed by production - limit news and trade in a wide range. Both have a trend strength of 0 [63][65]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it trades weakly with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][68]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene has a collapsing cost and expanding processing margin. PTA recommends a month - spread reverse spread, and MEG suggests a long - PTA short - MEG strategy [72][73].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views - **Steel**: Last Friday, there was news of a 50 million - ton production cut in 2025. Steel prices strengthened on Friday night and continued the slightly stronger trend on Monday. Raw materials weakened and the disk profit expanded. The apparent demand has peaked and there is an expectation of weakening in the far - end demand. Inventory has fallen to a seasonal low while production remains high. If the demand declines month - on - month, the near - end prices are expected to catch up with the decline. Steel mills need to reduce production to match the demand. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials in the second - nearest month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by the production restriction news, iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure. The daily average pig iron output has increased significantly this week, and it is expected to peak. Whether it can remain at a high level depends on the end - demand. The supply of iron ore has a slight increase in global shipments and a significant decline in arrivals. The port inventory has increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure [4]. - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The second - round spot price increase of coking plants was blocked. Due to the concession of coking coal, the losses of coking enterprises have been repaired, and some have resumed production slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased with the increase in pig iron output. However, there is a possibility that pig iron output will peak. The inventory is at a medium - high level with some pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The spot market is generally stable but weak. The domestic coal mines continue to resume production, and the port clearance has declined. The demand from the coking industry has increased slightly. The total inventory has decreased slightly. There is still a large impact from imported coal, and the market is expected to decline. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage and adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [7]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated narrowly. After the production cut, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the overall downward space is limited. The production has continued to decline, and the inventory has stopped increasing and started to decrease, but it remains at a medium - high level. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, but the factory inventory is high, and the price lacks the impetus to rebound. It is expected to fluctuate steadily [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures continued to decline. The production reduction has remained stable. The losses of manufacturers in Ningxia have deepened, and most manufacturers are still reducing production. The inventory has increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support from manganese ore is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed, such as the spot price of rebar in the South China region decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the 05 contract of rebar increased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the output of five major steel products increased by 3.1 to 875.8 (0.4% increase) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 50.4 to 1534.3 (- 3.2% decrease), and the rebar inventory decreased by 30.8 to 702.3 (- 4.2% decrease) [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 12.0 (- 0.7% decrease), and the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 926.3 (- 2.4% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties has changed, such as the PB powder increased by 3.3 to 809.6 (0.4% increase) [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 200.2 to 2325.3 (- 7.9% decrease), and the global shipment volume increased by 17.8 to 2925.5 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 18.4 to 327.9 (5.9% increase) [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 79.6 to 14261.0 (0.6% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 to 9073.0 (0.2% increase) [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1318, and the 05 contract of coke increased by 4 to 1566 (0.2% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase) [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 3.0 to 1014.8 (- 0.3% decrease), and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.4 to 104.9 (- 2.2% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 4.0 (- 11.5% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1145, and the 05 contract of coking coal decreased by 9 to 881 (- 1.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.7 to 878.2 (- 0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of upstream mines increasing and the port inventory decreasing [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract increased by 8 to 5648 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5550 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 16.2 to 5750.1 (- 0.3% decrease), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 to 620 (1.6% increase) [8]. - **Production**: The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon decreased by 0.1 to 9.9 (- 1.4% decrease), and the operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises decreased by 1.5 to 30.9 (- 4.6% decrease) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon (calculated by Steel Union) remained unchanged at 21 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 8.4 (- 11.8% decrease) [8]. Silicon Manganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 8 to 5804 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 to 5680 (- 0.4% decrease) [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 12 to 5681 (0.2% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 0.7 to 78.8 (0.9% increase), and the arrival volume increased by 33.6 to 65.3 (106.3% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon manganese (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.0 to 127 (0.3% increase) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.4 to 18.2 (15.4% increase) [8].

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...