Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The macro - overall sentiment is strong, and the market is oscillating strongly. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the SCFI US - West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; for the US - West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.4, expected 49.8, previous value 49.4; services PMI initial value was 50, a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7; composite PMI initial value was 50.2, expected 50.5, previous value 50.2; Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected - 6, previous value - 8.1 [3]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, the same as April, back above the critical point [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI initial value in June was 52, the same as May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; services PMI initial value was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a 2 - month low; composite PMI initial value was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a 2 - month low [3]. 3.3 Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers have been advised to go long with a light position in the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points). If it continues to pull back today, consider taking profits; go short with a light position in the EC2512 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent situation [4]. 3.4 Contract Information - On July 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1583.9, up 3.73%, with a trading volume of 65,200 lots and an open interest of 50,600 lots, an increase of 455 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro sentiment is strong, and the market is oscillating strongly. The near - month contracts are repairing the basis. Traders can consider adding positions on a pull - back today and set stop - losses [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; for the US - West route, it was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; for the US - West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1 (a 2 - month low), and the composite PMI was 52.8 (a 2 - month low) [3]. 3.3 Trade Policies and Market Conditions - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). Consider taking profits if it continues to pull back today. It was recommended to go short on the EC2512 contract with a light position [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts reached high levels, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On July 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1583.9, up 3.73%, with a trading volume of 65,200 lots and an open interest of 50,600 lots, an increase of 455 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot price of PA Alliance freight rates has likely emerged, with the rate revised down to $3,100 per FEU [1][4] - The August contract experiences high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely appeared. The delivery settlement price of the August contract may be around 2,200 points [4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate [5] - The December contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [7] - The year 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries [8] - The strategy includes a sideways movement for the main contract, a long - 12 and short - 10 arbitrage strategy, and shorting the October contract on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 79,692.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 81,678.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1,562.30, 1,382.00, 1,506.90, 2,244.90, 1,583.90, and 1,779.90 respectively [7] II. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show different price levels and trends. For example, Maersk's Week 31 price is 1907/3214, and Week 32 is 1815/3050 [1] - On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2,079.00 per TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2,142.00 per FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3,612.00 per FEU. On July 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,400.50 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,301.81 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From July to September 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route shows different levels. August has 3 blank sailings from the OA Alliance, and there are 2 TBNs in August and 4 in September. Maersk will add two additional ships in Week 32 and Week 34 [3] - As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 47 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 705,300 TEU and 7 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU have been delivered [8] IV. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical influence. The US Middle East envoy stated that the US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas due to Hamas' lack of sincerity [2] - Information on ship congestion ratios, speeds of different - sized ships, and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama is presented in the figures, although specific data in the text analysis is not elaborated [57][67][75] V. Demand and European Economy - Figures show data related to port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, and China's export volume to the EU and total export volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [76][77][88]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (composite index) reported at 1592.59 points as of July 25, reflecting a decrease of 54.31 points compared to the previous period [1] - The China Export Container Freight Composite Index stood at 1261.35 points, showing a decline of 3.2% from the last period [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has experienced a notable drop, indicating potential challenges in the shipping industry [1] - The decline in the China Export Container Freight Composite Index suggests a broader trend affecting export shipping rates [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and growth of the Huaxia CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (513910), which has seen significant increases in both share count and total assets in 2024 [1][2] - As of July 24, 2024, the ETF's latest share count was 2.082 billion, with a total size of 3.337 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 57.36% in shares and 90.50% in size compared to December 31, 2023 [1] - The ETF has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, with its performance benchmark being the adjusted return of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index [1] Group 2 - The current fund manager, Lu Yayun, has managed the ETF since its inception on February 7, 2024, achieving a return of 60.26% during the management period [2] - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, CITIC Bank, China Petroleum, China Everbright Bank, China Ocean Shipping, Agricultural Bank of China, China National Offshore Oil, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with varying ownership percentages [2] - The trading liquidity of the ETF has been robust, with a cumulative trading amount of 3.357 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, averaging 168 million yuan per day [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market rebounded on Friday with the 08 contract surging due to Maersk's announced PSS price increase of $500 for long - term contracts in August and ONE's online quote increase of $300. However, the market sentiment fluctuated as ONE's offline August early - period list price remained the same as late - July and CML cut prices at the end of July. The 10 contract declined on Monday afternoon, and the market dropped on Tuesday afternoon as MSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current selling price. On Wednesday, it was affected by Maersk's overtime ship opening at $2700. Overall, it rebounded on Thursday afternoon due to the positive commodity market, but some airlines continued to cut prices for late - July and early - August. It is expected that the European line freight rate will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of price hikes in August, and even if there are price hikes, the success rate will be low. The freight rate is about to enter an arc - top trend, and the accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7]. - The strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - **Current Values**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1647, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1304, SCFI - US West is 2142, SCFIS - US West is 1301, SCFI - US East is 3612, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2079, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2400, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2528 [5]. - **Previous Values**: SCFI was 1733, CCFI was 1314, SCFI - US West was 2194, SCFIS - US West was 1266, SCFI - US East was 4172, SCFI - Northwest Europe was 2099, SCFIS - Northwest Europe was 2421, and SCFI - Mediterranean was 2667 [5]. - **Percentage Changes**: SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.78%, SCFI - US West decreased by 2.37%, SCFIS - US West increased by 2.76%, SCFI - US East decreased by 13.42%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.95%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [5]. 3.2 Contracts - **Current Values**: EC2506 is 1506.9, EC2508 is 2244.9, EC2510 is 1583.9, EC2512 is 1779.9, EC2602 is 1562.3, and EC2604 is 1382.0 [5]. - **Previous Values**: EC2506 was 1468.8, EC2508 was 2239.7, EC2510 was 1537.0, EC2512 was 1701.8, EC2602 was 1477.3, and EC2604 was 1324.0 [5]. - **Percentage Changes**: EC2506 increased by 2.59%, EC2508 increased by 0.23%, EC2510 increased by 3.05%, EC2512 increased by 4.59%, EC2602 increased by 5.75%, and EC2604 increased by 4.38% [5]. 3.3 Positions - **Current Values**: EC2606 position is 841, EC2508 position is 9684, EC2410 position is 50586, EC2412 position is 8741, EC2602 position is 4327, and EC2604 position is 5513 [5]. - **Previous Values**: EC2606 position was 807, EC2508 position was 11039, EC2410 position was 50131, EC2412 position was 8446, EC2602 position was 4094, and EC2604 position was 5800 [5]. - **Change Values**: EC2606 increased by 34, EC2508 decreased by 1355, EC2410 increased by 455, EC2412 increased by 295, EC2602 increased by 233, and EC2604 decreased by 287 [5]. 3.4 Calendar Spreads - **Current Values**: The 10 - 12 spread is 661.0, the 12 - 2 spread is - 196.0, and the 12 - 4 spread is 397.9 [5]. - **Previous Values**: The 10 - 12 spread was 702.7, the 12 - 2 spread was - 164.8, and the 12 - 4 spread was 377.8 [5]. - **Change Values**: The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 41.7, the 12 - 2 spread decreased by 31.2, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 20.1 [5].

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with the black sector leading the gains - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250725 [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the potential new Fed Chair's stance may affect interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies are expected to be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy - driven growth, especially in Q4. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak - dollar trend is expected [7]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence improved in June, leading to a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate for interest - rate cuts, with nominations expected between Oct - Dec 2025. US tariff policies may be finalized on Aug 1 and 12, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June exports rose 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure investment. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for policies to boost domestic demand, with more incremental policies likely in Q4 [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak - dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [7] 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: There is no need to overly worry about market adjustments, with expectations of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is for a volatile upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is increasing, but market sentiment remains positive. However, option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is weak. Key factors include unexpected tariff policies, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors include Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Shipping - For container shipping on the Europe route, attention is on the balance between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is cooling, and price increases are slowing. Key factors include the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, and overseas mine production. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and price increases are moderating. Key factors are steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coking Coal**: There are strong expectations for anti - cut - throat competition policies, and prices continue to rise. Key factors are steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: An anti - cut - throat competition plan for non - ferrous metals is about to be introduced, providing support for copper prices. Key factors are supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Key factors are slower - than - expected ore production resumption, faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment is weakening, and prices are falling. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, and geopolitical factors are key. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, and prices follow the cost side. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **Asphalt**: Main - producer spot prices are falling, and futures prices are adjusting due to high valuations. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on prices. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are following crude - oil prices and weakening. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] Agriculture - **Pig**: Market sentiment is cooling, with near - term prices weak and far - term prices strong. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and prices are oscillating at high levels. Key factors are weather in production areas, raw - material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11]

Pricing Information - As of July 24, 2023, the spot rates for various shipping lines are as follows: Maersk: $1,767-$2,123/TEU, $2,958-$3,466/TEU; CMA: $1,935-$2,285/TEU, $3,445-$4,145/TEU; MSC: $2,060-$2,163/TEU, $3,440-$3,646/TEU; ONE: $2,604-$2,814/TEU, $3,343-$3,643/TEU; EMC: $2,355-$2,455/TEU, $3,560-$3,760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of July 21, 2023, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2,400.50 points, a decrease of 0.89% week-on-week; the US West Coast index increased by 2.78% to 1,301.81 points. The SCFI composite index as of July 18, 2023, is at 1,646.90 points, down 4.98% from the previous period [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 23, 2023, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US June manufacturing PMI is at 49, with a new orders index of 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced a decline yesterday, with the main contract closing at 1,583.9 points, up 3.73%; the August contract closed at 2,244.9, up 1.47%. Major shipping companies have already set prices for August, reducing uncertainty, and a fluctuating market is expected in the near term. Short-term spot prices are not anticipated to fluctuate significantly, while a gradual decline is expected in the medium to long term due to current prices being at a seasonal peak [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.73%, with an increase of 455 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1779.9 points, with an increase of 295 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.9 points, up 10 points, with a decrease of 1355 lots [9]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU in early August, while MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. Overall, freight rates in early August show signs of peaking, with the average static quoted price in week 32 around $3360/FEU [10]. - Fundamentally, the average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week. It is expected that the cargo volume in early August may remain resilient, and Christmas orders may be gradually shipped out in early August. There is a certain probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will appear in mid - to - late August. The fundamental trading logic remains to go short on rallies. In the short term, capital - level games are the core driver. The EC2512 and far - month contracts have relatively low positions and relatively large increases. It is expected that the 2510 contract may rise first and then fall; strategies include holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions of Container Shipping Index Futures | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2,249.9 | 1.47% | - 1,355 | | EC2510 | 1,583.9 | 3.73% | + 455 | | EC2512 | 1,779.9 | 5.45% | + 295 | [1] 3.2 Freight Rate Index | Freight Rate Index | Current Value | Unit | Weekly Increase | Bi - weekly Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route | 2,400.50 | points | - 0.9% | - | | SCFIS: US West Route | 1,301.81 | points | 2.8% | - | | SCFI: European Route | 2,079 | $/TEU | - | - 1.0% | | SCFI: US West Route | 2,142 | $/FEU | - | - 2.4% | [1] 3.3 Spot Freight Rates - In early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. The average static quoted price in week 32 is around $3360/FEU [10]. 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week [11]. 3.5 Macro News - Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen [8]. - The US withdrew from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [8]. - The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, warning of a highly uncertain external environment, and President Lagarde did not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes [8]. - The EU passed a €93 billion counter - tariff plan against the US, which will take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows mixed data with manufacturing facing stagflation risks but services remaining resilient. Market risk preferences are generally high, and various asset prices are affected by factors such as trade agreements, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [13][21]. - The European Central Bank maintains interest rates and is in a wait - and - see mode, which impacts the short - term trends of the euro and the US dollar index [16][17]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends and investment outlooks based on their own supply - demand situations, policy impacts, and other factors [3][28][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Eurozone central bank interest rates meet market expectations, and the ECB does not provide forward - looking guidance due to unclear tariff policies. The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI drops to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reach new highs since December last year. Gold prices are weak in a shock, and short - term gold lacks upward momentum and remains in a shock state [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's allies sue the Fed, and the ECB maintains interest rates. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the euro gets a short - term boost [15][16][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Japan reach a detailed agreement, and South Korea plans to use corporate investment in the US as a bargaining chip. The US stock market is driven by performance, and the short - term market risk preference remains high but may face callback risks [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index stands above 3600 points, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. The market risk preference is strong, and short - term treasury bond futures should be treated with a defensive mindset [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report meets expectations. CBOT soybeans continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to maintain a shock - based approach and pay attention to weather and Sino - US relations [28][29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Issues such as insufficient US sugar production, drought in Russia, and Indian sugar exports are present. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate mainly, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [30][32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Forest fires in Indonesia may affect palm oil production, and palm oil prices may rise further [34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories show a slight decrease, and steel prices are supported by policies but may face risks. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities [35][37][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The port inventory of cassava starch decreases, and the price difference with corn starch slightly widens. Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption and inventory of deep - processing enterprises both decline. New - crop short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to rebound and additional - position opportunities [41][42]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal prices are expected to remain strong due to policy and seasonal factors, and attention should be paid to whether the price can reach 700 yuan [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American's iron ore production and sales in Q2 show differences. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales are reported. The pig market has a complex supply - demand situation, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing long positions [46][47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Issues such as increased maintenance costs of the Panama copper mine and US copper tariffs are present. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [49][52][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are plans to revise the energy - consumption standard for polysilicon. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - term light - position shorting through options [54][55]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Industrial silicon inventory decreases, and production capacity may increase. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view and pay attention to the resumption of production by large factories [56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreases. Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector to be strong in the short term and decline in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tesla's new plans and supply - side uncertainties affect lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of LPG decreases, and inventory shows different trends. LPG prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [62][63][64]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price fluctuates slightly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [65][66]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increases. NYMEX natural gas is expected to fluctuate in the short term [67][68]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. The upward momentum of the caustic soda futures contract may weaken [69][70]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. Investors should be aware of the risks of pulp being hyped by funds [71]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder mostly rises. Investors should be aware of the risks of PVC being hyped by funds [72][73]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production - cut plans. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying low and rolling [74][75]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The short - term futures price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate carefully [76][77][78]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass rises. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [79][80]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - US port container imports decline for two consecutive months. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term [81][82].