Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slight recovery in industrial production and construction activity, alongside an increase in freight volume, indicating potential improvements in economic conditions. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [5][9] - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector also shows improvement, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [17] Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity is showing signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [29] - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [29][33] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased but remain higher than the same period last year [2][41] Group 3: Demand and Freight Volume - Real estate transactions remain low, with average daily transaction area down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [53] - Freight volume has increased, with port cargo throughput and container throughput rising by 1.3 percentage points and 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [65][72] - The national migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stronger movement of people [77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively [107] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 1.0% [119][120] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 0.9%, while the metal price index also rose by 1.0% [119][126] Group 5: Export Indicators - Export indicators show potential improvement, with foreign trade port cargo volume increasing by 8.9% year-on-year [135] - Container throughput to Vietnam has surged to over 60%, while shipments to the U.S. have decreased [135] - The overall export production index has increased by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a positive outlook for July exports [138]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall shipping derivatives market is showing a downward trend. The 08 contract on Friday saw a significant increase due to Maersk's and ONE's price hikes announcements for August, but the 10 contract declined on July 21st due to ONE's unchanged August price and CMA's price cut. The market dropped in the afternoon today as NSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current price, indicating a possible peak in freight rates [6]. - In the near future, the European line is characterized by stable reality and weak expectations. There may still be a rush to ship in July, and the spot price is expected to reach a rounded peak from late July to early August. After the deep - discount repair in the futures market, investors should avoid chasing high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The China Export Container Freight Index and Shanghai Container Freight Index show different trends. For example, SCFI - West America decreased by 4.98%, SCFI - East America decreased by 0.78%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 2.76%. The SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87% and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [3]. - **EC Contracts**: Different EC contracts (EC2506, EC2508, etc.) also have different price changes. For instance, the EC2506 contract increased by 1.11%, while the EC2510 contract decreased by 1.84%. There are also changes in positions and monthly spreads [3][4]. Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian - imported goods and exempting US goods from tariffs in the Indonesian market. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and preparing counter - measures. India is in trade negotiations with the US, and the trade relationship between China and Europe is expected to enter a period of intense conflict [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].

Core Insights - Diana Shipping has acquired approximately 7.7% stake in Genco, indicating a potential passive investment strategy [1][3] - Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Robertson suggests that this investment may allow Diana Shipping to engage in spot operations, particularly in the Capesize segment [3] - The investment has sparked market speculation due to the use of SEC Form 13D, typically indicating non-passive intentions, which could lead to merger activities [3][4] Company Analysis - Diana Shipping's investment of $46 million positions it alongside Singaporean owner Berge Bulk in terms of equity share [3] - The company operates a fleet of 37 dry bulk vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of approximately 4.1 million, with an average vessel age of 11.64 years [4] - The investment in Genco reflects a broader trend where other shareholders see profit potential in Genco amid improving spot freight rates, which could drive Genco's stock price and increase dividends [4] Market Implications - The presence of two dry bulk shipping peers as major shareholders in Genco suggests a positive outlook for the company's profitability in the current market environment [4] - Deutsche Bank supports any value-accretive transactions for Genco that could elevate its market capitalization beyond the $1 billion threshold [4] - Observations of Genco's management indicate a cautious approach towards growth, avoiding blind pursuit of expansion [4]

Group 1: Policy Changes and Economic Impact - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, with a significant increase in the proportion of "zero tariff" goods from 21% to 74% [1] - The processing value-added threshold for island products to enter the mainland duty-free is set at over 30%, indicating a major shift in trade dynamics [1] - The cross-border asset management pilot program will initiate with a scale of 10 billion yuan, marking a breakthrough in financial services [1] Group 2: Industry Opportunities - The zero tariff policy will encompass 6,600 product categories under a negative list management system, facilitating the free flow of industrial chains across the island [2] - The opening of bonded maintenance for 38 types of goods and the removal of import licenses for 60 types of old machinery will create a market space worth trillions for high-end manufacturing [2] - The annual limit for duty-free shopping for tourists will increase to 100,000 yuan, leading to a significant expansion in the variety of duty-free products available [2] Group 3: Key Companies and Their Prospects - Hainan Ruize (002596), a leading local cement company with over 40% market share, is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure demand due to the Free Trade Port's development [4] - China Duty Free Group (601888), the world's largest duty-free operator, is likely to see its market share grow as the scope of "island-wide duty-free" expands [4] - Caesar Travel (000796), a local tourism leader, may experience explosive growth in cruise and high-end customized travel services due to the facilitation of international tourist entry and enhanced duty-free shopping [4] - Hainan Highway (000886), a state-owned transportation infrastructure platform, will likely see increased toll revenue and commercial value from service areas as tourist numbers rise [4] - Hainan Development (002163) plans to inject duty-free assets from its controlling shareholder, which could synergize with its existing construction business [5] - Hainan Qicheng Group (603069), a public transport leader, may shift its valuation from traditional passenger transport to duty-free operations if its parent company injects duty-free business into it [5]

海南稳定运行集装箱班轮航线七十二条，逐步形成 " 兼备内外贸、通达近远洋 " 新格局 —— 开拓全球市场，从 " 中国洋浦港 " 启航 闯海5年，王渊明越来越爱这片海。 不久前，他一口气投入近5000万元购买了一艘国际货轮，直接奔向海南，加入"中国洋浦港"船籍港，开 拓全球航运市场。 乘风破浪，机遇辽阔。海南立足21世纪海上丝绸之路支点，依托政策、区位、开放型经济等综合比较优 势，充分释放海南自贸港核心政策红利，加快推进"中国洋浦港"船籍港建设，全力护航运输来往自由便 利，打造国内国际双循环的重要交汇点。 如今，"中国洋浦港"国际船舶总载重吨已突破635万吨大关，登记数量与运力规模稳居全国自贸港 （区）首位，海南国际航行船舶总吨位稳居全国第二，创造海南对外开放里程碑新纪录。 海南船舶，正扬帆全球。从"中国洋浦港"这扇联通世界的国际化窗口中，我们更能感受到海南自由贸易 港的开放魅力。 登记港 国际船舶运力5年突破635万吨 迎着呼啸海风，巨轮驰骋蔚蓝海洋，王渊明在甲板上眺望，心潮澎湃：船舶长达117米，型宽20米，载 重吨近8000吨。破浪前行，海阔天空。 国际货轮，为何从"中国洋浦港"启航？ 航运企业相中的是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping industry, especially the European line, shows a complex market situation. In August, the shipping capacity is relatively high, with an average weekly capacity of 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, the bottom - loading cargo in early August still provides support, and the market may remain stable or experience a slight decline in the quotes of some shipping companies in the next half - month [2][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2468.7 with a 4.28% increase, EC2510 at 1676.4 with a 1.93% increase, EC2512 at 1860.4 with a 1.90% increase, EC2602 at 1513.9 with a 0.62% increase, EC2604 at 1370.2 with a 1.51% increase, and EC2606 at 1465.7 with a 0.77% increase [2][30]. - Regarding the month - spreads, EC2508 - 2510 was 69.7 (previous day: 792.3), EC2510 - 2512 was - 3.0 (previous day: - 184.0), and EC2512 - 2602 was 25.3 (previous day: 346.5) [2][30]. Indexes - The current spot price was 2400.5 on 2025/7/21, a - 0.89% change from the previous period [2][30]. - SCFI (European line) was 2079 USD/TEU on 2025/7/18, a - 0.95% change from the previous period [2][30]. - CCFI (European line) was 1803.42 on 2025/7/18, a 4.46% increase from the previous period [2][30]. - NCFI was 1440.25 on 2025/7/18, a 0.35% increase from the previous period [2][30]. - TCI was 1054.56 on 2025/7/18, a - 0.7/5% change from the previous period [2][30]. European Line Quotations - Downstream is currently booking spaces for early August (week 30 - 31). The prices in July remained stable, around 2400 points. In the fifth week of July (week 31), the quote was 3400 USD, which was still around 2400 points on the futures market [3][31]. - In August, some shipping companies announced price adjustments: EMC increased by 100, CMA by 400, HPL by 200, MSC by 200. MSK (Shanghai - Rotterdam) decreased by 100 to 2900 USD, and MSK (Shanghai - Antwerp) remained stable at 2900 USD [3][31]. Seasonal Trends - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of various shipping indexes, including SCFIS (European line), TCI (European line, Mediterranean East, US West, South American West, Persian Gulf, South Africa, West Africa, Mediterranean West, US East, East Africa), NCFI (European line), and XSI - C (European line) [12][19][40].

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2508 had a closing price of 2468.7 with a 4.28% increase, a volume of 14033, and an open interest of 11574 with a decrease of 1671 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1676.4 with a 1.93% increase, a volume of 76841, and an open interest of 54063 with an increase of 1346 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1860.4 with a 1.90% increase, a volume of 9640, and an open interest of 8392 with an increase of 169 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1513.9 with a 0.62% increase, a volume of 1336, and an open interest of 3867 with a decrease of 8 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1370.2 with a 1.51% increase, a volume of 2779, and an open interest decrease of 45 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1465.7 with a 0.77% increase, a volume of 104, and an open interest of 742 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 2: Month - Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 69.7 on the reporting day, compared to 792.3 the previous day, 722.6 two days ago, and 652.9 three days ago, with a weekly change of 237.4 [2] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 3.0 on the reporting day, compared to - 184.0 the previous day, - 181.0 two days ago, and - 178.0 three days ago, with a weekly change of - 23.1 [2] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 25.3 on the reporting day, compared to 346.5 the previous day, 321.2 two days ago, and 295.9 three days ago, with a weekly change of 50.9 [2] Group 3: Index Information - The SCHS index was 2400.5 on 2025/7/21, with a - 0.89% change from the previous period and a 7.26% expected change in the next period, updated weekly on Mondays [2] - The SCFI index was 2079 dollars/TEU on 2025/7/18, with a - 0.95% change from the previous period and a - 0.10% expected change in the next period, updated weekly [2] - The CCFI (European line) index was 1803.42 on 2025/7/18, with a 4.46% change from the previous period and a 1.90% expected change in the next period, updated every Friday [2] - The NCFI index was 1440.25 on 2025/7/18, with a 0.35% change from the previous period and a - 0.50% expected change in the next period, updated on Fridays [2] - The TCI index was 1054.56 on 2025/7/18, with a - 0.75% change from the previous period and no expected change in the next period, updated daily [2] Group 4: Capacity and Price Information - In August, the weekly average capacity is 320,000 TEU, an 8% increase from the previous period, and the market may remain stable or see some shipping companies' quotes decline slightly in the next half - month [2] - In July, the overall price remained stable at around 2400 points, and in the fifth week (week 31) of July, the quote was 3400 dollars, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [3] - In August, multiple shipping companies announced price adjustments: EMC increased by 100, CMA increased by 400, HPL increased by 200, MSC increased by 200, MSK (Shanghai - Rotterdam) decreased by 100 to 2900 dollars, and MSK (Shanghai - Antwerp) remained stable at 2900 dollars [3] Group 5: Related News - On 7/23, Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, including a 15% tariff and a 550 billion - dollar investment in the US [4] - On 7/23, it was reported that the cease - fire negotiation in Gaza had made significant progress, and relevant parties were discussing the deployment scale and location of Israeli troops in certain areas, with an expected agreement [4] Group 6: Index Delay Note - The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days [5]

2025年7月23日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 大宗带动多头情绪，情绪分流盘面回调，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 7月18日 7月21日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% 7月18日 7月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上期上涨4.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2142USD/FEU, 较上期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3][7] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the macro - economic situation, both overseas and domestic, and provides short - term judgments on various futures products. Overseas, the fundamentals are relatively stable, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies and Fed policy. Domestically, the economy shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy support. For assets, there are structural opportunities in the domestic market, and long - term weak dollar trend is expected overseas [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas fundamentals are relatively stable. The new Fed chairman's nomination may affect the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US tariff policies are expected to be implemented in early August. The US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data [7] - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 economic data showed resilience, with GDP and export growth exceeding market expectations. High - frequency data indicates an improvement in the investment side. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies. Current growth - stabilizing policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [7] - **Asset View**: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in Q4. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper is recommended [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for the "anti - involution" policy are difficult to be falsified, but there is a lack of incremental funds, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate the market. Option liquidity continues to deteriorate, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen. Attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market expectations continue to improve, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8] - **Iron Ore**: Port arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories remained stable. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [8] - **Coke**: A second round of price increases is approaching, and the market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market was pulled up by macro - stimuli, and the coking coal futures price exceeded 1,000 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sector performed strongly, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [8] - **Manganese Silicon**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [8] - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to heat up, and spot prices start to follow. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on spot sales [8] - **Soda Ash**: Concerns about aging facilities are rising, and the spot and futures markets are rising in tandem. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on soda ash inventories [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The implementation time of US tariffs on copper may be advanced, and the Shanghai copper price is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish stance, and domestic demand recovery [8] - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse receipts registration needs to be observed, and the alumina market is expected to decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and excessive electrolytic aluminum复产 [8] - **Aluminum**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [8] - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black sector boosted the zinc price, and short - selling opportunities are recommended. The market is expected to decline, with attention on macro - risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8] - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventories are accumulating. The lead price is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8] - **Nickel**: The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse has been opened, and the nickel price is expected to decline in the long - term. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply shortages [8] - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price is weak, and the stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile, with attention on Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [8] - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price has strong bottom support. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8] - **Industrial Silicon**: The silicon price has rebounded under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are being hyped, and the lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile, with attention on insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8] 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10] - **LPG**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price valuation has entered a severely overvalued stage, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on unexpected demand [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is under great downward pressure, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to decline following crude oil, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has continued to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10] - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is unbalanced, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis has stabilized, and devices are restarting. The market is expected to rise, with attention on ethylene glycol inventories [10] - **PX**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the PX market is expected to be volatile, with attention on crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10] - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened, and the cost of PX is strong. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on polyester production [10] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis has declined, and processing fees have rebounded. The market is expected to rise, with attention on terminal textile and clothing exports [10] - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on future bottle - chip production [10] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Plastic**: Spot support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Styrene**: There is no clear driving force, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the PVC market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [10] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked, and the caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [10] 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil continues to lead the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. The market is expected to rise, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10] - **Protein Meal**: After China and Australia signed a trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal market declined slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [10] - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supplies are locally tight, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on insufficient demand, macro - factors, and weather [10] - **Pigs**: Pig supplies are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10] - **Rubber**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounded after a decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on significant crude oil price fluctuations [10] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro - factors, and the pulp price is in a stalemate. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [10] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has increased with increased positions, and the 14,000 - yuan mark is being tested. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on demand and production [10] - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on abnormal weather [10] - **Logs**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile. The market is expected to decline, with attention on shipping and delivery volumes [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **July 18 - 21 Changes**: The NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points on July 21, down 5.75% from the previous period; SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [1]. - **July 18 Changes**: SCFI was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, Services PMI was 50 (2 - month high), Composite PMI was 50.2, and Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 0.2 [2]. - **China in June**: Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2]. - **US in June**: Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52, Services PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and Composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market Influences - Trump's tariff policy targeting Southeast Asian countries has increased trading difficulty, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate hikes. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August 1. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and spot freight rate adjustments [3]. - On July 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,700 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, an increase of 549 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300), and consider adding positions if it continues to decline. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [4]. - **Arbitrage**: In the context of international instability, the market has a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term**: Take profit when contracts rise, and wait for the market to stabilize after a decline before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - **Price Limits**: The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - **Intraday Position Limits**: The intraday position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].