来源：中信信托 本周摘要 Weekly Summary 上周，A股上周重拾涨势。成交额、换手率、融资余额等反映市场情绪的指标指向当前风险偏好上升并处于较高位置。在此背景下，成长 风格整体跑赢稳定风格。由于归属科技成长范畴的电子行业和房地产、农林牧渔等传统周期行业录得上周涨幅前三，或反映当前市场主 线仍在寻求不同板块间的平衡以及在前期涨幅相对较小的行业中寻求机会。预计A股短期波动提升的同时上涨空间将打开。美国方面仍是 交易美联储降息节奏的加快。美元持续下行、美国国债收益率回落，以及美股和黄金的上涨，或反映市场对于美联储将实施货币宽松行 为的定价。报告维持前期观点，关注美国经济"类滞胀"风险及后续降息空间或仍将受限。 MACROECONOMICS 国内外宏观经济 国内方面 国内风险偏好升温，A股重拾涨势，但短期波动料将加大。我国上周先后发布8月贸易、通胀、社融信贷等重要月度经济数据。3季度以 来，我国经济数据表现冷热不均，除了出口项连续数月超预期，生产、需求以及通胀数据难言强劲。本次贸易、通胀和社融信贷数据的 主要特征是出口增速回落，CPI通胀同比增速重回负增；另一方面，PPI通胀降幅收窄，主要源于前期"反内卷" ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03% at the close, with a trading volume of 979.60 million shares and a turnover of 15,108.13 billion yuan, representing a 12.16% decrease from the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The coal industry showed the highest increase at 1.97%, with a transaction amount of 111.71 billion yuan, up 41.65% from the previous day, led by Huayang Co., which rose by 8.09% [1] - The defense and military industry increased by 1.66%, with a transaction amount of 431.15 billion yuan, up 6.87%, led by Guorui Technology, which rose by 9.99% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.42%, with a transaction amount of 597.97 billion yuan, down 14.34%, led by Ganfeng Lithium, which increased by 10.00% [1] - The automotive sector experienced the largest decline at 1.63%, with a transaction amount of 1,040.70 billion yuan, down 7.43%, led by Haon Automotive, which fell by 11.48% [2] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 1.04%, with a transaction amount of 682.17 billion yuan, down 8.78%, led by Saily Medical, which fell by 6.22% [2] - The real estate sector declined by 0.97%, with a transaction amount of 242.96 billion yuan, down 8.46%, led by Suning Universal, which decreased by 10.12% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies and measures to expand service consumption. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, introduce a series of policy documents, promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, and use structural monetary policy tools to increase capital supply in the consumption field. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out across the country, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the first since a nine-month pause. Powell said that employment growth has slowed, the risk of employment decline has increased, the labor market is less active than before and slightly weak; inflation has recently risen and is still slightly high; commodity inflation has accelerated, and the decline in service inflation continues; the risk of persistent inflation needs to be managed, and the inflation risk tends to the upside. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is expected to exceed 90% according to US interest rate futures [1]. Spot Market - A-share indices closed with an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3876.34 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automobile, coal, and home appliance industries leading the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and trade retail, and social service industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4 trillion yuan on the day. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.57% to 46018.32 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, this Friday is the delivery day of the current-month contract, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IH increased [2]. Strategy - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts such as the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [10][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 17, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, along with their daily changes [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the open interest and trading volume of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), as well as the basis (futures - spot) and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [15][36][44].

深圳证券交易所上市公司2025年上半年"成绩单"近期出炉，展现出较强发展韧性。截至2025年8月31 日，共有2873家深市上市公司如期披露2025年半年度报告。数据显示，深市公司营收净利双增长，业绩 稳中向好态势明显，龙头公司表现亮眼，引领作用显著，研发投入持续加大，战略性新兴产业公司增势 强劲，新的动能持续累积。 整体来看，深市公司2025年上半年实现营业收入合计10.24万亿元，同比增长3.64%，其中第二季度实现 营业收入合计5.36万亿元，环比增长9.78%。深市公司2025年上半年实现归属于母公司股东的净利润 5954.56亿元，同比增长8.88%，近八成公司实现盈利，超过五成公司实现净利润同比增长，超过两成公 司盈利同比增长超50%。 主板公司中创新蓝筹发挥"市场稳定器"作用。已披露半年报的1489家深市主板公司合计实现营业收入 8.19万亿元，平均实现营业收入54.99亿元，共计801家公司营业收入同比增长，占比53.8%，822家公司 净利润同比增长，占比55.2%，其中92家公司实现扭亏为盈；571家公司实现营收净利双增长，占比 38.35%。 龙头公司业绩表现亮眼。截至8月29日收盘，深 ...

Market Performance - On September 17, 2025, the market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index reaching a new high for the period. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.95%[3] - The total market turnover was 24,029.16 billion CNY, an increase of 358.68 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[3] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, most sectors saw gains, with the top performers being Comprehensive Finance (3.93%), Electric Equipment and New Energy (2.90%), and Automotive (2.13%). The laggards included Consumer Services (-1.07%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (-0.98%), and Retail (-0.95%)[21] - In terms of investment style, growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with large-cap growth leading small-cap value, and fund-heavy stocks performing better than the CSI All Share Index[21] Capital Flow - On September 17, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 383.06 billion CNY, with large orders contributing to the outflow of 212.53 billion CNY and super large orders accounting for 170.53 billion CNY. Small orders saw a continuous net inflow of 473.14 billion CNY[26] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 94.41 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 21.56 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 72.85 billion HKD[5] Global Market Overview - On September 17, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.78% to 26,388.16 points and the Nikkei 225 Index declining by 0.25% to 44,790.38 points[33] - European indices generally fell on September 16, 2025, with the DAX Index down 1.77% and the FTSE 100 Index down 0.88%[34]

Market Overview - The equity market saw all major indices rise last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 increasing by 5.48% and both the Small and Medium-sized Board Index and the CSI 500 rising over 3% [3] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 26 experienced gains, with the top five performing sectors being electronics, real estate, agriculture, media, and non-ferrous metals; the bottom five were comprehensive, banking, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and leisure services [3] Public Fund Market - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to further promote the regular application and recommendation of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector [4] - The average increase for equity funds was 2.28%, while fixed income plus funds rose by 0.16%, with a positive return ratio of 54.51%; pure bond funds saw an average decline of 0.15% [4] - The overall equity fund position was measured at 78.29% as of September 12, 2025, an increase of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [4] ETF Market - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 4.434 billion yuan last week, with cross-border ETFs seeing a net inflow of 18.693 billion yuan, while stock ETFs had a net outflow of 5.382 billion yuan [5] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 439.932 billion yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 10.20% [5] - Major inflow themes included brokerages, batteries, and Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, while broad-based funds continued to see outflows [5] Fund Issuance - A total of 55 new funds were issued last week, an increase of 11 from the previous period, with 39 newly established funds, up by 1 [6] - The total amount raised by new funds was 21.794 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.779 billion yuan from the prior period [6]

Market Overview - A-shares showed a mixed performance with the three major indices closing higher, but most individual stocks declined, indicating a structural divergence in the market [1][2][10] - The trading volume increased to 2.4 trillion yuan, reflecting active market participation [2][10] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly the electric power equipment and automotive sectors, performed well, with electric power equipment rising by 2.55% and automotive stocks increasing by 2.05% [4][5][7] - Traditional consumer sectors, including agriculture, retail, and food and beverage, continued to show weakness, with declines in multiple categories [8][10] Fund Flow and Market Dynamics - There is a notable imbalance in the distribution of liquidity, with funds concentrating in high-weight sectors like electric power equipment and automotive, leading to a "Matthew effect" where larger stocks benefit disproportionately [10][11] - The leverage funds are accelerating their entry into the market, with the margin balance reaching 2.39 trillion yuan [2][10] Future Outlook - The market is expected to benefit from three main drivers: leveraged funds, migration of household deposits, and foreign capital inflow, which could support further upward movement in indices [1][12] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth potential, such as non-bank financials, AI computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as these areas are likely to see significant performance improvements [12][14]

Group 1 - The Biotech Index (970038) closed at 2403.29 points, down 0.55%, with a trading volume of 25.269 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.59% [1] - Among the index constituents, 11 stocks rose, led by Jingxin Pharmaceutical with a 2.67% increase, while 38 stocks fell, with Yaoshi Technology leading the decline at 5.11% [1] - The top ten constituents of the Biotech Index include major companies such as Mindray Medical, with a weight of 13.82% and a market cap of 290.246 billion yuan, and other notable firms like Tigermed and Changchun High-tech [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds from the Biotech Index constituents totaled 1.789 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.354 billion yuan [3] - Specific stocks like Boteng Co. experienced a net inflow of 73.5819 million yuan from main funds, while others like Jiayin Pharmaceutical saw a net outflow of 4.8669 million yuan [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among institutional and retail investors, with significant movements in individual stocks reflecting varying levels of confidence [3]

（原标题：10.63亿元主力资金今日撤离农林牧渔板块） 农林牧渔行业资金流入榜 农林牧渔行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | -2.02 | 1.44 | -33879.20 | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | 0.00 | 0.96 | -10576.08 | | 600598 | 北大荒 | -0.81 | 1.00 | -4766.90 | | 603477 | 巨星农牧 | -1.72 | 3.63 | -4196.84 | | 002100 | 天康生物 | -0.87 | 4.91 | -4017.70 | | 603717 | 天域生物 | -5.73 | 15.79 | -3627.87 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | -3.01 | 0.67 | -3574.01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002385 | 大北农 | -0.92 | 2.64 | -3509.31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a strong rally, driven by the technology growth sector, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index, indicating a positive market sentiment ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2]. Market Performance - A-share market continued its upward trend, with the ChiNext Index breaking through 3100 points, closing up 1.95% at 3147.35 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.16% to 13215.46 points. The total market turnover reached 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 359 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.78% to 26908.39 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index surged 4.22% to 6334.24 points, with significant inflows from southbound funds totaling 9.441 billion HKD [2]. Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market saw a dual drive from high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, with the new energy industry chain experiencing a broad rally. The power equipment sector led with a 2.55% increase, while the automotive sector rose 2.05%, supported by better-than-expected new energy vehicle export data [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, technology and education sectors saw significant gains, with the Sapphire Index soaring 7.45% and the online education index rising 6.66%, driven by improved policy expectations [3]. Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - In the A-share market, consumer and cyclical sectors showed weak performance, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector declining by 1.02% due to falling pork prices. The retail and social services sectors also faced declines of 0.98% and 0.86%, respectively, due to weak consumption data [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the precious metals and healthcare sectors faced significant declines, with the precious metals index dropping 2.20% amid concerns over overbought conditions in gold [4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market exhibited a structural characteristic of "growth dominance, value consolidation," with a focus on technology and high-end manufacturing in the medium to long term. The A-share market is advised to focus on "new energy + hard technology" dual lines, particularly in the lithium battery and semiconductor sectors [5][6]. - For the Hong Kong market, a strategy focusing on "technology leaders + policy beneficiaries" is recommended, particularly in AI chips and cloud computing sectors, which still have upward potential [5][6].