1月30日，德州市召开"2025回望记"系列主题新闻发布会第八场，介绍2025年度德州市乡村振兴工作成 效，并回答记者提问。 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 李梦晴 2025年，全市农业农村系统深入落实市委、市政府关于"三农"工作部署要求，坚决扛牢政治责任，扎实 有力推进乡村全面振兴和农业强市建设重点工作，保持了农业农村稳中有进、稳中向好的势头，为推动 经济社会高质量发展提供了基础支撑。 绿色"吨半粮"产能建设扩围增效。科学应对罕见秋汛，有力有序组织抢收减损，新增核心区达标面积 27.7万亩、总数达158万亩，带动全年粮食播种面积、总产稳中有增，单产继续保持全省第一。绿色"吨 半粮"协作网（山东）启动会、黄淮海大面积单产提升现场推进会等高规格会议在德州召开，德州模式 全国推广。《黄淮海地区小麦玉米周年产能提升技术规范》获批成为国家农业行业标准。 食品名市建设成效明显。食品加工延链升级，新增农产品加工规上企业30家，7家企业入选全省农业行 业领军企业名录，11个特色产业入选全省乡村特色产业名录，国家级农业龙头企业达到12家、省级76 家。中国（德州）农业食品创新产业（300832）园区累计完成投资过10亿元，皇家小虎一期、 ...

(原油) 昨夜油价纷纷冲高，SC一度涨近7%，随后盘中回吐大幅涨幅。美国总统特朗普称正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击，未作出最终决定。伊外交部长阿拉格齐同日表示，伊朗随时准备对侵犯行为作出回 应。市场担忧伊朗对其邻国发起反击或甚至关闭霍尔木兹海峡。欧盟理事会29日发布公报说，决定 对伊朗内政部长伊斯坎德尔。莫梅尼等15名官员和6个实体实施制裁，并已决定将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 队列为恐怖组织。泽连斯基表示就能源基础设施达成的停火将从29日夜间开始生效。地缘局势走向 扑朔迷离叠加基本面累库压制仍在,警惕油价大幅波动风险。 【责金属】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅接近10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一 周，美伊依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击。此外特朗普即将公布美联储主席人选并呼吁 太幅降息，美国政府面临再度关门风险。短期市场信息繁杂，市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参 与。 (铜) 周四全日铜价剧烈波动，伦铜盘中最大涨幅超过10%，兑现部分海外机构1.4万美元及以上目标位。 铜价由资金与情绪引导,关注今日国内现货与贴水幅度,现货价差已转为 ...

人民日报记者 常钦 "麻屋子，红帐子，里面睡个白胖子。"这则谜语把花生写得亲切，也写得寻常。在传统认知里，它 是佐餐小菜、榨油原料。可如今，"高油酸""七彩花生""植物基"等新词层出不穷。 从一粒种子被植入"高科技芯片"，到原本被丢弃的秧壳变身"黄金资源"，再到手机屏幕前的网红爆 款，花生的故事早已超越了"落花生"的朴素叙事。 我国花生年平均播种面积稳定在7000万亩以上，总产超1900万吨，是目前唯一实现自给自足的油料 作物。加工业总产值超过2000亿元，产业规模居世界之首。 从保障国家粮油安全的"压舱石"，到践行大食物观的"先行者"，这粒熟悉的种子正肩负起新的使 命：既关乎油脂安全，也关乎蛋白供给；既在田间较量单产，也在实验室比拼分子结构；既是一方水土 的"土特产"，也在新消费里重估价值。 近日，记者深入河南、山东等花生主产区，走访院士专家、龙头企业与种植大户，揭秘这颗"国民 坚果"如何通过种业创新、工艺革命与消费升级，演绎出"一路生花"的产业链裂变新传奇。 换"芯"记—— 打破瓶颈的"基因突围" 故事，得从"芯"说起。这个"芯"，是农业的芯片——种子。 走在河南、山东的种植基地，乡亲们口中常提起的词是" ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is in a state of low valuation and low drive, with sufficient supply. The short - term price increase is driven by pre - holiday stocking and differences in sugar production rates, but there is insufficient momentum for continued growth. It is not recommended to chase high prices for the SR2605 contract [2]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to the off - season of downstream products, but is supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to consider long - position allocation near 5200 [2][5]. - The double - offset paper market has limited upward space for futures prices. The cost - driven force is weakening, and short - term short - selling operations are recommended [6][8]. - The cotton market is expected to have a slow upward trend in the center of gravity. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple market's major support logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on dips for the 2605 contract [10]. - For the jujube market, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and investors can consider buying protective put options for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread strategy of short 2605 and long 2609 [12]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Do not chase high prices. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Allocate long positions with a light position. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [20]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of apples in the producing areas remained stable this week. The transaction volume increased during the peak pre - holiday stocking period, and the cold - storage packaging and shipping speeds increased. The sales situation in the sales areas was fair, and the mainstream price remained stable [21][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - holiday sales speed is expected to be slower than last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of the week of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. India's domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. - **Pulp Market**: The Chinese pulp market continued to weaken due to the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week this Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased, and the start - up load rate was 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, with the increase rate narrowing by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States were $27.493 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.54% and a month - on - month increase of 0.88%. The new - season planting area of U.S. cotton is expected to be about 10 million acres, about 9% higher than the latest USDA forecast [31]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - **Apple 2605**: The closing price was 9642, with a daily increase of 110 and a daily increase rate of 1.15%. - **Jujube 2605**: The closing price was 8895, with a daily increase of 65 and a daily increase rate of 0.74%. - **Sugar 2605**: The closing price was 5257, with a daily increase of 70 and a daily increase rate of 1.35%. - **Pulp 2605**: The closing price was 5388, with a daily increase of 14 and a daily increase rate of 0.26%. - **Cotton 2605**: The closing price was 14910, with a daily decrease of 30 and a daily decrease rate of 0.20% [31]. - **Spot Market Review** - **Apple**: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - **Jujube**: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - **Sugar**: The spot price was 5320 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 590 yuan. - **Pulp**: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1200 yuan. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang in Tianjin was 4350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - **Cotton**: The spot price was 16103 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1377 yuan [38]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 5 - 10**: The spread was 1112, a month - on - month decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - **Jujube 5 - 9**: The spread was - 205, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 175. It is recommended to wait and see. - **Sugar 5 - 9**: The spread was - 12, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 145. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Cotton 5 - 9**: The spread was - 90, a month - on - month decrease of 20 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to be oscillating and weakening, and it is recommended to go short on highs [59]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts was 3313, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts was 14119, a month - on - month increase of 404 and a year - on - year decrease of 10009. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts was 141442, a month - on - month increase of 948 and a year - on - year decrease of 197286. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts was 10243, a month - on - month increase of 34 and a year - on - year increase of 3530 [84]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, and the A - share market is in an accelerated style rotation phase. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3]. - The precious metals market has seen sharp fluctuations, and the short - term risk has increased. The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end [4][5]. - Copper prices are driven by both hedging and speculation, with the valuation rising. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [6][7]. - Aluminum prices have shown large fluctuations at high levels due to strong profit - taking intentions. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. - Alumina prices are stabilizing and oscillating. Supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, and follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. - Cast aluminum is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price movement follows the cost and oscillates at high levels [11]. - Zinc prices are running strongly, but weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with trading enthusiasm converging. The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations [16]. - Steel prices are oscillating and rebounding. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation before the holiday, and the overall trend is oscillating [17]. - Iron ore prices are following the sector's rise and rebounding. The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean export sales are expected to slow down, and downstream stocking demand is weakening [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the US are rising, leading to differentiated market risk preferences and increased volatility. The US Senate's appropriation bill is blocked, and there is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The US stock market is adjusted due to concerns about AI capital expenditure returns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.23%. The US dollar index has recovered to 96.3. Gold is oscillating at a high level, crude oil has strengthened significantly, and LME copper has reached a record high [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market closed up on Thursday with a rotation of styles. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and technology stocks led the decline. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 3.26 trillion yuan, and the margin trading scale reached a new high of 2.74 trillion yuan. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend is positive [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Prices fluctuated sharply on Thursday. COMEX gold reached a record high in the morning and then tumbled at night, while COMEX silver also reached a record high and then gave up its gains. The flash crash at night was mainly due to profit - taking after the January delivery of COMEX ended, and then prices rose again after Trump's remarks. In 2025, global gold demand exceeded 5000 tons for the first time, and investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons [4][5]. - The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end, and the short - term adjustment risk is increasing. The gold - silver ratio is expected to recover from a low level [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, and LME copper reached a high of 14,500 and then fell back to 13,700. The domestic spot market had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant. LME and COMEX inventories increased [6]. - The market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the volatility will further increase. The overall metal valuation will rise in the wave of AI and global electrification transformation. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the mine has proposed a new labor contract [6][7]. - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, up 2.92%, and LME aluminum closed at 3233.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.92%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased [8]. - The US government faces a partial shutdown risk, and Iran will hold a military exercise. The sharp fluctuations in precious metals and copper prices at night affected market sentiment, and profit - taking intentions were strong. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main futures contract of alumina closed at 2816 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. The national average spot price was 2648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The theoretical import window was open, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [10]. - After some alumina plants reduced production, the supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. Follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main futures contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 23,850 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices also rose. The exchange inventory increased [11]. - Affected by weakening demand, the operating rate of cast aluminum continued to decline, and consumption continued to weaken. Cast aluminum itself has few contradictions, and its price movement follows the primary aluminum and oscillates at high levels [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc strengthened during the day and then fell back at night, reaching a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton. The spot market maintained a small discount. Social inventories increased slightly. Some mines had positive news about production [12]. - The market is affected by the uncertainty of the Iranian situation and the rise in overseas smelting costs. Although the overall situation is favorable, weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market saw active selling by holders, and the social inventory increased slightly [15]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom due to environmental regulations and production cuts, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market had different price premiums. The trading enthusiasm has converged, and the main contract position has not increased significantly [16]. - The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The medium - and long - term supply - demand situation is good. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [16]. 3.10 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 7.3 million tons. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Many electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mill maintenance increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The demand is weak, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation. The overall trend is oscillating [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 86 million tons. Steel mill inventories increased due to pre - holiday restocking, but the daily consumption was at a low level. Overseas shipments increased slightly, and port inventories were at a high level [18]. - The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The price of Shanxi main coking coal decreased, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased. Many coal mines will stop production during the Spring Festival, affecting a large amount of production capacity [19]. - Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. Although there is still some restocking expectation before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed up 0.9%, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed up 1.84%. US soybean export sales decreased significantly in the week ending January 22. Argentina's soybean sales increased, and Brazil's soybean export forecast for January 25 - 31 is 189.245 million tons [20]. - US soybean export sales are expected to slow down as China shifts its purchases to the South American market. The expected high yield in Brazil limits the upside of the market. Downstream stocking demand is weakening before the Spring Festival. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [20][21]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 contract of palm oil closed up 1.15%. The US dollar index is weak, and there is a risk of supply interruption in Iran, leading to a significant rise in oil prices. China has completed the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed [22]. - The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable for the oil sector. Palm oil prices are approaching the pressure level. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report International - The US soybean market's supply - demand pattern has shifted to a loose state under the influence of the unexpectedly bearish USDA January supply - demand report. Although the strong domestic crushing demand provides some support for prices, it cannot offset the weak external demand. The expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress market sentiment, with the increased production forecast in Brazil setting the tone for global supply abundance. The continuous drought in the Argentine production area adds weather premium and is the main uncertain factor. Overall, the US soybean market faces double pressure from inventory accumulation in the US and intensified competition from South America, limiting the price rebound space [4][96]. Domestic - The domestic soybean market shows characteristics of loose external and stable internal conditions. The spot price of imported soybeans is stable, while the price of domestic soybeans rises supported by supply and demand. The overall market supply is abundant. The previous commitment to concentrated procurement of US soybeans has been mostly fulfilled, and future procurement will focus on South American new crops with more price advantages. The operating rate of domestic oil mills peaks driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but the crushing profit is severely squeezed. High upstream costs and high downstream inventories jointly restrict the industry's profit space. As the Spring Festival stocking demand nears the end, the boosting effect on soybean meal consumption weakens, and inventory reduction is slow. The domestic soybean market is supported by festival stocking in the short term, but will face multiple challenges in the medium term, such as the concentrated arrival of low - priced South American soybeans, high domestic inventories, and weak downstream breeding demand. After the stocking market, the logic of loose supply will dominate the market again [4][96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Fluctuate Differently - At the end of January 2026, the spot price of imported second - grade soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan compared to the end of December 2025. The spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in the Nenjiang area of the Heilongjiang soybean production area was 4,060 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices: Raw Materials Stronger than Finished Products - Since January 2026, the price center of bean No. 1 futures has generally risen, from 4,240 yuan/ton to around 4,370 yuan/ton, with spot and futures prices rising in tandem. The price of bean No. 2 futures fluctuated strongly. After three consecutive weeks of consolidation, it broke upwards. Since the spot price remained strong during the same period, the basis of bean No. 2 remained at a relatively high level. The price of soybean meal futures was mainly in consolidation, following the pace of US soybean futures but overall weaker than US soybeans, mainly due to the relatively loose domestic supply [12]. 2. The USDA Report is Unexpectedly Bearish, and South American Weather Topics Continue to Simmer 2.1 US Soybean Data is Unexpectedly Bearish; Strong Domestic Demand Cannot Offset Weak Exports - The USDA's January supply - demand report on January 12, 2026, significantly revised the US soybean data, with core adjustments including increased production, decreased exports, and increased inventory. The US soybean production in the 2025/26 season was unexpectedly raised to 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 9 million bushels from the December report. The increase was mainly due to the increase in the harvested area from 80.3 million acres to 80.4 million acres. The domestic crushing demand was strong, with the estimated domestic crushing volume raised from 2.555 billion bushels to 2.570 billion bushels. However, the export demand shrank significantly, with the export volume estimate cut by 60 million bushels from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season soared from 290 million bushels to 350 million bushels, reaching a six - year high. The farm - level annual average price estimate for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was lowered from $10.50 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel [16][17]. 2.2 South American Production Area Weather Topics Simmer; High - Yield Expectations Face Adjustment - In January 2026, the weather in South American soybean production areas showed significant regional differentiation. In Brazil, although a record - high yield is expected, weather disturbances bring uncertainties to harvesting and later growth. In Argentina, continuous drought has caused substantial damage to crop growth, and the production forecast faces downward pressure. In Brazil, the southeast has heavy rain and the south has extreme heat. Heavy rain in the southeast and central - west core production areas has delayed the mechanical harvesting of early soybeans and squeezed the sowing window for second - crop corn. The high - temperature and dry weather in the south has threatened the growth of soybeans and corn. In Argentina, since December 2025, the core agricultural areas have suffered from continuous drought, leading to a sharp deterioration in soil moisture, affecting soybean growth, and causing a decline in the proportion of good - quality crops and suitable soil moisture [22][23][25]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Volume Remains High; Strong Domestic Demand is Still an Important Support - The NOPA's January monthly crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history, slightly higher than market expectations. The crushing volume in December was 224.994 million bushels, a 4.1% increase from November and an 8.9% increase from December 2024. The USDA's January supply - demand report predicted that the US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season would be 2.570 billion bushels, higher than the December forecast and a 5.11% increase from the previous year. The high crushing volume is driven by multiple factors, including rigid domestic demand for soybean meal, biodiesel policies supporting soybean oil consumption, and indirect export market pull [26][28]. 2.4 The Peak US Soybean Export Period Ends; the Competition between North and South American Soybeans Begins - The US soybean export pattern is undergoing a profound structural adjustment. The total US soybean export volume is under pressure, with a significant reduction in the export volume estimate from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. This is due to the continuous and rapid expansion of South American production capacity and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US, which reduces the supply for export and weakens its international price competitiveness. China's purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans has provided short - term support for US soybean exports, but after fulfilling the commitment, China will turn to South American new crops. The price competitiveness of US soybeans compared to South American soybeans will be a decisive factor in future exports [32][33]. 3. Domestic Soybean Supply is Abundant; Spring Festival Stocking Demand is Nearing the End 3.1 China Fulfills the US Soybean Purchase Commitment; Future Procurement Turns to South America - In January 2026, domestic imported soybean procurement has evolved into refined cost management and supply - chain balance under multiple constraints. Brazil has a dominant position in China's soybean imports. China has basically completed the concentrated procurement of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with the actual procurement approaching or exceeding 10 million tons, over 80% of the 12 - million - ton target. The focus is now shifting to South American new crops. The procurement decision is driven by profit accounting and inventory adjustment. The state reserve has been conducting soybean auctions since January, which has supplemented the immediate supply and strengthened the expectation of loose future supply, suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm of oil mills [46][47]. 3.2 Oil Mill Operating Rate Peaks before the Festival; Crushing Profit Space is Severely Squeezed - The domestic soybean crushing industry is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The crushing profit is severely squeezed. High import costs and limited downstream soybean meal price increases due to high inventory have led to poor profit conditions for oil mills. The operating rate of oil mills increased significantly in mid - to late January to meet the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, but it is expected to decline after the stocking demand is released. The soybean meal market has a high inventory level with slow reduction and limited demand boost. In the future, the domestic soybean crushing industry may face a decline in the operating rate, and the crushing profit will continue to be squeezed [60][61]. 4. Excess Supply and Weak Demand Coexist; Pig Prices Continue to Bottom Out 4.1 Pig Prices Rebound and then Come under Pressure Again; the Industry Remains at the Bottom of the Cycle - In January 2026, the domestic pig market was in a complex game between the traditional consumption peak season and high supply, showing the characteristics of a weak peak season and industry pressure. Pig prices did not show a unilateral upward trend but rebounded slightly and then came under pressure again. The industry was still at the bottom of the cycle, with self - breeding and self - raising of pigs still incurring an average loss of about 33 yuan per head as of early January. Major listed pig enterprises increased their slaughter volume but saw a decline in sales revenue due to lower average prices [75]. 4.2 Pig Production Capacity is Reduced Slowly; Market Supply Pressure Remains Heavy - The official inventory data shows that the number of sows capable of reproduction is slowly decreasing, but the absolute quantity is still high. As of the end of 2025, the national inventory of sows capable of reproduction was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, still slightly higher than the balanced level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter volume reached 720 million, and the pork output was 59.38 million tons. In late January 2026, the short - term market supply pressure increased significantly due to the increased slaughter volume and the concentrated release of fattened pigs by secondary fatteners [76][77]. 4.3 Traditional Pre - Festival Demand is Delayed Overall; Demand Explosiveness is Weakened - Slaughter enterprises are eager to lower the purchase price of pigs to reduce losses, which suppresses market demand. Traders and slaughter enterprises have low willingness to build frozen - product inventories, and the frozen - product inventory level remains low. The Spring Festival in 2026 was about 20 days later than usual, delaying the traditional pre - festival demand peak. Family curing and enema in the south, killing pigs for the New Year in the north, and inventory - building demand from supermarkets and wholesale markets were all weak or delayed, weakening the demand explosiveness [84][86]. 5. Conclusion - The international and domestic soybean market situations are consistent with the core views of the report, with the US soybean market facing pressure and the domestic soybean market showing short - term support and medium - term challenges [96].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差期现机会 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260130 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节后淡季预期未变 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾释放 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 2026年01月30日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 30 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,362 | 涨跌幅 0.99% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,348 | 涨跌幅 -0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

内容概要：近年来，无麸质食品、速冻米面制品、饮料乳制品、烘焙食品等细分食品赛道快速崛起，直 接拉动原生大米淀粉的市场需求量稳步攀升，与此同时，医药、日化等非食品领域需求也在不断增加， 医药领域中，大米淀粉凭借低致敏性、生物相容性佳的特性，在片剂黏合剂、胶囊填充剂等药用辅料领 域的需求稳步增长；日化领域则依托其增稠、保湿的功效，广泛应用于面膜、乳液等护肤品的生产环 节，此外，在造纸、纺织、生物降解材料等工业领域，受环保政策驱动，大米淀粉正逐步替代部分传统 化工原料，应用场景进一步拓宽，据统计，2025年我国大米淀粉需求量达47.20万吨，同比增长18.3%； 市场规模达30.58亿元，同比增长11.6%。 相关上市企业：金龙鱼（300999） 相关企业：无锡金农生物科技有限公司、安徽顺鑫盛源生物食品有限公司、安徽联河股份有限公司、安 徽乐欢天生物科技有限公司、安徽焕发生物科技有限公司、吉安市金牛园食品有限公司 关键词：大米淀粉市场政策、大米淀粉产业链图谱、大米淀粉市场规模、大米淀粉竞争格局、大米淀粉 发展趋势 一、概述 三、产业链 大米淀粉是一种从稻米中提取的天然淀粉，是商业淀粉中颗粒度最小的，粒径约为3μm～ ...

Core Insights - The rise in popularity of "trampled spinach" in Henan is attributed to a combination of quality agricultural practices and effective marketing through social media and live streaming, leading to a significant increase in sales [1][2] - The success of trampled spinach reflects a broader trend in Henan's agricultural sector, focusing on local resources and specialty products to drive rural revitalization [2][3] Group 1: Agricultural Trends - Trampled spinach, known for its unique taste and natural growing methods, has gained consumer trust and increased sales due to its perceived quality and authenticity [1] - The cultivation of trampled spinach involves traditional methods, such as outdoor planting in autumn and winter, which enhances its flavor and aligns with consumer demand for natural products [1] Group 2: Rural Revitalization Strategies - The development of cherry farming in Lihe Village showcases the integration of technology and local resources, with initiatives like smart greenhouses and cherry festivals enhancing local tourism and economic growth [2] - The emphasis on technology in agriculture is evident through companies like Pingdingshan Green He Agricultural Technology, which focuses on selenium-rich agricultural products and aims to establish a selenium processing industrial park [2] Group 3: Brand Development and Marketing - The success of trampled spinach provides insights into the branding and marketing of agricultural products, highlighting the importance of storytelling and direct consumer engagement through platforms like short videos and live streaming [2] - The revitalization of traditional brands, such as the "Laobaotai" pickles, demonstrates the potential for integrating modern marketing strategies with traditional production methods to enhance product quality and market reach [3]