Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The expectation for the real estate market in China is stabilizing, with a focus on improving and managing market expectations [6][21] - The two leading fiberglass companies, China Jushi and China National Materials, have implemented stock incentive plans, reflecting their operational confidence [7] - The cement shipment has experienced a seasonal decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Expectations - A commentary published in "Qiushi" emphasizes the financial attributes of real estate and its importance in the national economy and household wealth, suggesting that policies should be decisive to stabilize market expectations [6][21] Stock Incentives of Leading Companies - China Jushi announced a restricted stock incentive plan for up to 34.53 million shares, accounting for 0.86% of its total shares, with a target compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2026 to 2028 set at no less than 38.5%, 27.0%, and 22.0% respectively [7] - China National Materials proposed a stock option incentive plan for 15.4 million shares, representing 0.92% of its total shares, with a target CAGR for net profit from 2026 to 2028 set at no less than 107.0%, 73.0%, and 62.5% respectively [7] Market Fundamentals - Cement: The average shipment rate for major domestic cement companies was approximately 40.1% at the end of December, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Glass: The production capacity of float glass decreased, with 212 out of 265 production lines operational, and daily melting capacity reduced to 151,405 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous week [8] Outlook for 2026 - Focus on three main lines: - **Stock Chain**: Emphasizing demand optimization and supply clearance, with renovation demand expected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030 [9] - **Africa Chain**: Highlighting undervalued growth in Africa, with recommendations for companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [9] - **AI Chain**: Anticipating upgrades in special electronic fabrics, with a focus on companies like China National Materials [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a cautious outlook on corporate earnings in Hong Kong [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive reduction, with projections for one more cut in 2026 and 2027 [3][5] - The Chinese service sector's PMI dropped to 52 in December, indicating the weakest expansion rate in six months, while the composite PMI slightly increased to 51.3 [7] Company News - Alibaba (9988) is applying visual AI technology in the restaurant sector to compete with Meituan (3690) for market share [9] - Sunny Optical (2382) is considering a spin-off of its automotive optical business for a separate listing in Hong Kong [9] - China National Airlines (0753) reduced its stake in Cathay Pacific (0293) by over 6%, realizing approximately 1.3 billion HKD [3] Sector Focus - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting new economic growth points in quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces [2][7] - The biopharmaceutical sector in China saw a record high in new drug licensing transactions last year, indicating sustained demand [6] - The insurance sector is benefiting from strong A-share performance, leading to improved investment returns [6] IPO Market Outlook - PwC forecasts that Hong Kong will see around 150 new IPOs in 2026, raising between 320 billion to 350 billion HKD, potentially ranking among the top three globally [7] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, Hong Kong recorded 8,999 property sale contracts, a 26.4% increase month-on-month, with a total value of 65 billion HKD [8] - The Centaline Property Index reached a 19-month high, reflecting ongoing positive sentiment in the real estate market [8]

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Economic Belt has become a crucial area for ecological priority and green development, contributing nearly half of China's GDP while accounting for about one-third of the country's energy consumption and carbon emissions [1] Group 1: Green Transformation and Industrial Upgrading - Traditional industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and building materials in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have actively pursued green transformation, establishing 24 national carbon peak pilot cities and parks, along with 14 zero-carbon parks [1] - Approximately 10,000 old operating vessels have been scrapped and updated as part of the push for clean energy and new energy ship development [1] - The region has cultivated 41 national-level advanced manufacturing clusters and 30 strategic emerging industry clusters, representing 51% and 45% of the national totals, respectively [1] Group 2: Innovation and New Economic Drivers - The Yangtze River Economic Belt is accelerating the cultivation of new economic drivers, with 3 technology innovation centers and 8 national laboratories established in the region, achieving breakthroughs in key technologies in fields like artificial intelligence and quantum information [2] - The region is recognized as one of the most resource-rich and innovative areas in China, with ongoing efforts to enhance economic scale while focusing on green, high-end, and intelligent development [2] - Future initiatives will aim to further accelerate green transformation and develop low-carbon industries tailored to local conditions [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will slowly rebound to near zero in the first half of 2026, with the AR-gap and Phillips curve models indicating a mild recovery in PPI year-on-year, although the support from macro variables is weaker than the momentum of inflation itself [7][19]. - Beneficiary sectors during the historical periods when PPI rises from negative to positive include non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, electricity, home appliances, agriculture, coal, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [7][21]. - The liquidity-sensitive mode of major assets indicates that market sentiment has reached the upper range of historical thresholds, leading to a decrease in the explanatory power of sentiment on equity asset gains, suggesting a potential decline in momentum driven by sentiment [7][39]. Group 2: Inflation and Beneficiary Sectors - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy has led to market expectations of "price recovery," which helps to change the deflationary mindset, although the upward space for inflation is constrained by demand [19]. - Historical analysis shows that during periods when PPI rises from the bottom to near zero, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, steel, electricity, and public utilities exhibit significant positive marginal impacts on overall equity markets [21][27]. - The report identifies that the structural opportunities in the consumer sector are present, while the dividend sector faces both profit and valuation pressures [7][27]. Group 3: Macro and Funding Perspectives - The macro liquidity environment is characterized by a "price soft and volume stable" pattern, with marginal recovery in base currency issuance but still relying on rapid declines in interest rates to improve the overall funding situation [46]. - Global macro liquidity is also showing marginal recovery, primarily driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market [46][48]. - The report notes that the recent surge in new applications for equity funds indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations that major funds will concentrate their investments around the end of the first quarter of 2026 [53][60]. Group 4: Style Allocation - The report indicates that the information ratio for dividend and consumer sectors continues to decline, with no reversal signals currently, while the information ratio for cyclical sectors is rapidly strengthening, suggesting a shift in focus towards growth sectors to capture momentum gains [74]. - The growth sector's net value is approaching previous highs, but there is still significant room for the information ratio to rise, indicating a potential for better performance in this area [74].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月5日，宁夏建材在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至目前公司生产经营正常，无 应披露而未披露的信息。 ...

发布时间：2026年01月05日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近一周，岁序更替市场波动。海外地缘局势骤然紧张，美国突袭委内瑞拉活捉总统马杜罗，英法联合空袭叙利亚，投资者避险情绪抬升， VIX指数大幅上扬。风险资产涨跌互现，全球股市与大宗商品跌多涨少，A股震荡分化，BDI指数小幅回落。美元反弹，人民币强势依旧，大宗商 品整体承压分化延续，内部风格转换，贵金属大幅回落拖累商品，有色表现坚挺，油价延续弱势，黑色系延续反弹小幅上扬领跑商品。 冠通期货研究报告 冠通期货研究报告 国内债市全线回落近强远弱、股指震荡承压多数收跌，商品大类板块多数下挫表现弱势；股市震荡承压多数收跌，成长型风格表现相对于价 值型抗跌，中证5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of domestic and international monetary policy easing, foreign capital and southbound funds are expected to continue their net inflow trend, leading to a substantial improvement in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies, resulting in a market environment of rising profits and valuations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market largely depend on the domestic macroeconomic environment, with stable macro policies expected to maintain economic resilience and inflation likely to recover from low levels [2] - For 2026, the earnings growth forecast for major indices includes a 9.64% year-on-year increase in the Hang Seng Index, a 34.63% increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index, and a 9.9% increase in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - As of December 19, 2025, the market value of Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings accounted for approximately 13.1%, while international intermediaries held about 40.1%, indicating a net increase in domestic capital holdings compared to foreign capital [3] - From the beginning of the year to December 19, 2025, the cumulative net inflow into the Hong Kong stock market via Stock Connect reached HKD 1.4 trillion, a 74% year-on-year increase [3] - Cumulative net inflow from foreign capital into the Hong Kong market from early 2025 to December 17, 2025, was USD 17.689 billion, with expectations of a continued low interest rate environment encouraging further inflows [3] Group 3: Market Performance - As of December 19, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.1 times, an 11.91% increase from the end of 2024, indicating significant room for valuation recovery compared to historical highs [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index's earnings per share increased by 9.58% compared to the end of the previous year, and its valuation is notably lower than other major global tech indices [5] Group 4: Investment Themes - The technology innovation theme is expected to be a major investment focus, with significant valuation recovery potential for the Hang Seng Tech Index and strong performance anticipated from leading companies [6] - In the context of supply-side reform, sectors such as steel, building materials, electrical equipment, and paper are expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics and rising profit margins [6] - Under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, sectors with growth potential and historically low valuations, particularly in service consumption and new consumption models, are expected to perform well [6]

三峡新材公告，拟向宜昌国有资本投资控股集团有限公司收购其持有的三峡新材临港新材料（宜昌）有 限公司40%股权，交易金额为0万元。本次交易构成关联交易，不构成重大资产重组。本次交易已经公 司独立董事专门会议2026年第一次会议、董事会2026年第一次临时会议审议通过。本次关联交易的金额 未达到股东会审议标准，无需提交公司股东会审议。 ...

1月5日，国务院2026年第一场新闻发布会聚焦长江经济带发展，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在回答"推动沿江产业绿色 低碳发展"时，专门提及武汉光谷等科创产业高地的高速发展。 产业升级塑造新优势，已累计培育国家级先进制造业集群41家、战略性新兴产业集群30家，分别占全国的51%和45%。他 以汽车产业为例，随着电动化、智能化技术加快变革，沿江地区汽车产业链供应链不断焕新升级，2025年上海、江苏、浙江、 安徽、重庆新能源汽车产量均超过百万辆，一条贯通全流域、覆盖全链条的新能源汽车产业链正在加速形成。 绿色转型实现新突破：积极推动钢铁、石化化工、建材等传统产业绿色转型，在长江经济带布局建设了24个国家碳达峰试 点城市和园区、14个零碳园区。加大新能源清洁能源船舶研发和推广，累计支持约1万艘老旧营运船舶报废更新。积极推动浙 江丽水、江西抚州等14个试点地区加快探索生态产品价值实现机制。 王昌林说：长江经济带以占全国约三分之一的能源消耗和碳排放，贡献了近一半的GDP，生态优先绿色发展主战场的引领 带动作用日益凸显。下一步，将加快推动沿江传统产业绿色转型，因地制宜培育壮大绿色低碳产业，更好实现在发展中保护、 在保护中发展 ...

Core Insights - The development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has shown significant progress over the past decade, with improvements in waterway infrastructure, cargo throughput, and environmental quality [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Infrastructure and Economic Growth - The length of high-grade waterways in the Yangtze River has increased from 8,000 kilometers to 11,000 kilometers, and cargo throughput at major ports has grown by 71% to reach 4.2 billion tons, maintaining the world's leading position in inland river transport [1] - The GDP of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has more than doubled, increasing its share of the national economy from 42.2% to 47.3% [1] - By 2025, it is expected that cargo throughput at major ports will reach 4.2 billion tons, with the number of large ports increasing to 18 and the average tonnage of cargo ships exceeding 2,300 tons, representing growth of 71%, 50%, and 67% respectively since 2015 [1] Group 2: Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development - The proportion of good water quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has improved from 67% to 96.5%, indicating significant advancements in environmental protection [1] - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Further Strengthening the Protection of the Yangtze River" outlines key tasks in water pollution control and ecological restoration from 2025 to 2027, with noticeable progress already made [2] - The region is focusing on green and low-carbon transformation of industries, with the establishment of 24 national carbon peak pilot cities and parks, and 14 zero-carbon parks [4] Group 3: Innovation and Industrial Upgrading - The Yangtze River Economic Belt has become a hub for innovation, with the establishment of three technology innovation centers and eight national laboratories, leading to breakthroughs in key technologies in various fields [3] - The region has nurtured 41 national-level advanced manufacturing clusters and 30 strategic emerging industry clusters, accounting for 51% and 45% of the national totals respectively [3] - The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, with projections indicating that by 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in several provinces will exceed one million units, forming a comprehensive supply chain across the entire river basin [3]